Boy, Peek Around the Corner has a real gut punch for VT in their
projections. He has the ACC settling for about $200 mil per departing team with 6 teams departing, to the SEC UVA, UNC, Clemson and NCSU. to the Big, FSU and Miami. The next prediction is that with about 1.2 bil to divide to the teams over time, the ACC will survive as somewhere less than the XII. To me this is the worst of all possibilities for us and I think VT to the XII is very bad.
I really want the ACC to succeed but I tell you if Those 4 go to the SEC, it will not be good for us. But a part of me thinks this is just what UNC wants as they think if they can just get rid of us then they win both the VA recruiting and become the #1 fan favorite in VA.
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WBGV
2y
and somehow obtains and reports on realignment activity before the mainstream press does. He claims that his sources are anonymous big donors, but because of his accuracy I tend to think that the sources of his sources are from the TV networks. Before any conference makes a membership addition, they likely consult with their TV partner months in advance to see if they would financially support this action. Like so many things in life, it is about the money.
As far as exit fees, timing, and university & state politics, Flugaur can only speculate like everyone else who isn’t in the “room”. I seriously doubt that the ESPN will extend their contract with the ACC if 6 schools leave. I seriously doubt that ESPN would extend their contract with the ACC if 3 schools leave if those schools are FSU, Clemson, and UNC (two of which have already made their intentions known). Flugaur somehow thinks that the ACC will find a way to survive, but with no TV media rights contract or one that looks more like the AAC contract, it is difficult to see the ACC surviving and any school not jumping to another power conference if they have an opportunity. Even the billion plus dollars of exit fee that Flugaur speculates about which is very unlikely IMO paid over 12 years and distributed to 8 remaining members comes no where close to the amount of money lost because of the adjusted or cancelled TV media rights contract.
All that has to happen to fatally injure the ACC is for the B1G to take FSU and then wait on ND or choose another school, the SEC to take Clemson and UNC (no one is going to stop UNC from accepting an invitation from the SEC especially with all of the turmoil in the ACC - NCST be damned), and for the Big 12 to take any 4 remaining ACC schools they desire. Most people believe that 8 schools are needed for dissolution of the conference (before August) and that will now likely be the chalk. The GOR goes away. The exit fees go away. The lawsuits go away. The ACC goes away. Game, Set, Match.
** Edited by WBGV at 4/10/2024, 12:40:10 PM
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
2y
and only FSU, Clemson and UNC leave, that will leave enough to revive the ACC on equal with the XII and may give ESPN what they need to re up the media contract as is. Certainly our bottom feeders are weaker than theirs but our top mid will be equal. Tie that in with what I am certain is going to happen reviving the PAC and viola, you have that 3 regional level between the P2 and G5 without cross country travel, which will be a must have for that level conference and you have a 24-36 team division that will most likely.
ACC- Miami, GT, NCSU, VT, UVA, Pitt, Cuse, BC, Duke, Wake, Lville and add USF.
Big XII- Houston, TCU, T Tech, Ok St, Kansas ST, KS, ISU, WVU, Cinci, UCF, SMU and 3 more from the heart of their region.
PAC- AZ ST, AZ, Colorado, Utah, BYU, Or ST, Ws. ST. Stanford, Cal and add 3 more from the heart of their region.
But I don't think that will be it until 2036 as there may be a few more that the P2 will take. Most likely VT, UVA, NCSU, Miami and Stanford.
And you undersell the fact that there is one body that governs both UNC and NCSU and others.
(In response to this post by WBGV)
2y
There seems to be a lot of distain for him from some on this board. He's not like some of the FSU and Big 12 podcasters. I've found him to be informative and not "throwing everything against the wall to see what sticks" like he is portrayed in some of these posts. There's still a lot to be determined and I don't think the "powers at be" have even figured out how this will end. It's clear that the SEC wants UNC and the Big Ten wants a presence in the southeast. I should feel bad for the ACC but frankly I don't. They have shunned my school (WVU) for seventy years and helped destroy the Big East, so if it happens to them I'll consider it karma.
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Stech
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that’s still mad the ACC didn’t take WVU and Cincinnati last year.
** Edited by Stech at 4/10/2024, 8:11:54 PM
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2y
Rear view mirror.
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Stech
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I understand why, and I have wanted WVU in the ACC since Virginia Tech got in, but it’s hard to be objective for anyone in that situation:
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WBGV
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Sometimes they are doing the hunting, and at other times they are being hunted.
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Stech
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Stech
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they survived. They aren’t thriving like the P2, but they survived. They have tier 1 basketball overall and tier 2 football overall. I don’t see why the ACC with the right expansion, can’t do the same thing. Grab UConn, USF, maybe San Diego State and a couple of others, and I think they could easily follow the Big 12 model. I believe the 🏀 tournament will expand to 96 at least by when the CBS contract runs out, but the Sweet 16 will be paid out like the football playoff money. So I think that the ACC will survive, just like the Big 12 has survived losing numerous schools.
** Edited by Stech at 4/10/2024, 1:07:12 PM
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WBGV
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IMO it all comes down to the TV contract which provides the funding to have successful athletic departments within the conference. ESPN’s declining profitability as cable subscribers decline has caused it to be more discerning when it comes to media rights contracts and payouts. I’m not so sure that the Big 12 conference would survive either if it had to negotiate a new contract or extension at this time.
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Stech
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TV network partner easily could be involved, again just like the Big 12.
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WBGV
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media rights contract extension with a sizable pay bump even without Texas and Oklahoma. They also jumped ahead of the PAC-10 who spent close to a year unsuccessful trying to get a comparable media rights agreement. When they failed, the conference imploded.
The Big 12 would have a tough time negotiating a contract extension like that again in this tight media rights market.
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2y
guaranteed. It will be a game of nerves. The remaining schools will need to be united in purpose. I hope talks/plans are happening now. The PAC 10 had a fool trying to work their TV deal. The ACC will need to be smarter and get it done quickly. The longer it takes to reach a deal, the harder it is to keep restless schools from jumping to The Big 12. And The Big 12 will definitely come calling.
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2y
That was because the PAC and ACC didn't want them.
Today, their is a conference interested in some of the properties that will not get a P2 invite.
It will be interesting to me how important keeping the ACC together will be when that choice is presented.
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Its a peek, he's got sources, some credible, some not, some are using him to manipulate the message, some are not. However, if you are in the audience, it is completely different presentation. It is what it is. sometimes some 'small nuggets' of truth are integrated in all those 'FSU and Clemson' experts in corporate law....(they probably didnt even get a law degree, but dont tell them that)..
The most consistent thing he has told his sources, it is known at the very highest levels, that VT and VA are joined at the hip, and its completely different then the states in Oregon, Washington, much less California. It's not only an outspoken AG, but the Governor/Executive branch, The Entire general Assembly and the Entire Congressional Delegation. They simply will not allow one to go to a p2 conference without the other.
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TDVick
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somewhat likely to me.
In that sense, he might not be that wrong.
** Edited by TDVick at 4/10/2024, 5:19:25 AM
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hokieZ71
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The only P2 moves that have been made with a GOR in effect was Texas and Oklahoma leaving the Big XII a SINGLE year early. And to do that, ESPN had to give the Big XII a sweet contract to allow that move to happen. For one freaking year.
FSU is making all of this fuss because they are at a $20-$30M deficit per year to the SEC and B1G. So....Greg Flugaur says FSU is willing to take on $200 million in debt, and also agree to a lower payout ($20-$30M) from the B1G for the next 6 years (because if Nike (Oregon) isn't worth a full share neither is FSU), and we all of a sudden just agree with that? Yeah, FSU is willing to be in even worse financial shape for the next 6-10 years and now have to compete with Ohio State, Michigan, USC, Oregon, Washington and Penn State to make the playoff at a disadvantage, and under the very real possibility that the P2 blows up in its face because of the alienation of the very fans who ESPN/Fox need to watch the games in the first place?
All of this ridiculous line of thinking because we are paranoid about VT being the only single ACC team with Football worth being left out of an expansion caused by driving football value? And because some guy who got one thing right one time is trying to monetize on the one contact he ever had? C'mon...
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TDVick
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1. The ACC GoR looks really shaky and will likely be toast by 2027.
2. In which case the damages for leaving the ACC won't be that much.
3. Very few schools aren't dilutive as additions to the SEC or B10, which looks bad for us (with the exception of FSU, UNC and maybe Clemson (I don't count ND).
4. UNC can possibly dictate who goes with them and NCSU and UVA would rank above us.
5. The B10 seems to be quite obsessed with the AAU status, which also works against VT.
Whether or not Flugaur is legit or a clown, what he's saying seems to fall in line with these basic facts I listed.
Maybe VT can join the SEC or B10, but it looks to me that it will be at a really large haircut to the existing member's pro-rata baseline, which is also bad.
The VT/UVA package deal seems suspect to me.
If there were rumblings that UNC and UVA wanted to go to the B10, I wouldn't be as pessimistic of VT's outcomes, because then I think the SEC would try to add us.
I see a VT addition to the SEC with UVA as being redundant and not as likely. I think UVA would get added before us due to the UNC influence. Adding VT and UVA together would make a dilutive situation even more dilutive.
A pro-SEC guy just replaced the previous Chancellor at UNC.
I think our best chance is to go SEC, but it looks like we are getting crowded out of that outcome.
I certainly don't have inside info, but the landscape looks bad right now.
People think the Flugaur opinion would be bad for VT. I think it might be even worse, because the damages would be less, since the ACC might unwind anyhow.
Like I said, I hope I'm wrong and all this is a guess. However, I did say in 2011, that not trying to go to the SEC was completely insane. I thought VT was at great risk to get shoved down the list when the next round of expansions occur - which seems to be the case. I think we would all rather be SEC members receiving a full cut now.
I know there is a lot of BS on the web, but most all the new addition rumors the past few months discuss UNC/UVa and now UNC/NCSU, but not VT. Why those combos? Because they make a lot of sense based on the facts that I mentioned that everyone can see.
** Edited by TDVick at 4/10/2024, 9:31:55 AM
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Hokie83
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TDVick
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That is my guess. Two Virginia schools seems redundant to either the SEC or B10.
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Hokie83
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Stech
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unless they take 2 from North Carolina and 2 from Virginia. I think the ACC survives after some leave, but I also think UVA would probably prefer Stanford, Cal, BC, Pittsburgh, Syracuse etc over the SEC or the Big 12.
I think many people underrate the associations with other schools in the conference at the top schools that have large endowments like UVA, and also where their students come from, and where their alumni live.
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hokieZ71
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Just because FSU wants to whine and complain about it means nothing. And the B1G isn't giving them a full share until 2031-32.
Clemson and UNC moving to the SEC means nothing for ESPN's bottom line there. South Carolina, UGA and Florida probably don't want Clemson in anyway, without mega money added And the money is drying up.
UNC. So...you're telling me that in order for the SEC to add UNC, they need $100M a year to do it to make it palatable for the SEC presidents. But, since UNC has this demand to bring NCST and UVA....that ESPN is going to simply say, "Fine, add UVA and NC State, and we will give you triple UNC's rate!! It doesn't matter than UVA plays football in a mausoleum with only spirits in the stands. And that NC State adds exactly $0 to our bottom line if we get UNC in the first place. Who gives a rip! Here, take our bags of money!!"
I never said anything about the VT/UVA package. Flugaur did... And I watched him say it. Because he takes what he reads just like you do, and then talks about it on YouTube to make money. And then he changes what he says to get other people watching and the first set of people upset.
And as for prospects, VT is going to be AAU before long. Maybe 3-6 years, maybe 5-10 years, but it's coming. Just like the next wave of expansion. And if UNC, NC State and UVA are in the SEC, the Big Ten could hit a home run adding VT's base from Charlotte to DC to it's lineup. FSU, Miami, VT, PSU in the same division? Yes, please!! We have a President from Purdue. Just hired a women's hoops coach from Marquette, with her playing days in Indiana @ ND, have loads of academic and research initiatives tied into the Big Ten. Governor Youngkin just put $27M research grant in the budget earmarked for the Fralin Biomedical Research Institute at VTC. We get that $$ now because we have a medical school. That money allows us to hang on to our faculty a little longer.
I'm not so worried as you are. We are always going to be Virginia Tech, in whichever conference we may be. Good enough for me.
** Edited by hokieZ71 at 4/10/2024, 9:36:18 AM
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VTDC
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1. GOR is not shaky at all. If you use news articles and the act of a lawsuit on the topic as evidence, you have a problem.
2. see #1. Even if the ACC breaks up according to how you see, the damages would be substantial. While I don't think this is how it will play out, even if it were, rights are big $. Especially when agreed to in contracts
3. You're not thinking this through. It won't be the SEC/B10 as exists today to make this work. It isn't about dilutive in its current form. It's about creating more value from large schools across as wide an area as possible.
4. This is just laughable on all fronts. UNC won't dictate what day of the week it is let along how this plays out
5. Again, 20 years ago maybe. This isn't about those things.
(In response to this post by TDVick)
2y
I agree that's laughable. This isn't John Swofford's ACC, where he let Donna Shalala bully him into taking who she wanted to come along with Miami. This is the Big Ten and SEC. They'll do what they think is right.
UNC has very little leverage on the B1G and SEC. Yes, they're an attractive property/brand, but whether they go to the B1G or the SEC isn't going to tip the balance in either direction. They're just one school.
In the end, either conference might invite UNC and might appear that they're going along with what UNC wants, but they will do so only if they think it's in the best interest on their conference.
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2y
they do. but football is absolutely their bread and butter. im an ole miss alum, and can tell you people in my circles of college networks laugh when i talk to them about UNC. everybody agrees VT , Clemson , NCST are the schools they want. most do not want FSU or Miami. They are attracted to VT, Clemson, and NCST though
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TDVick
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so in a a sense, they can dictate terms by not choosing one instead of the other. Out of UNC, NCSU, UVA and VT, UNC is by far the best national brand. The conferences are probably somewhat indifferent between NCSU, UVA and VT, so whatever combination gets them UNC, will get offered - most likely UNC, NCSU and UVA.
If UNC has a "political gun to their head," which seems to be the case, then whoever takes UNC will also take NCSU. Adding UNC is worth bringing in NCSU to get UNC.
I do think that UNC is tilting pro-SEC, especially due to the new Chancellor. Then it comes down to VT and UVA for the SEC. VT isn't that much more attractive than UVA as far as the SEC is concerned, especially when you add the UVA/UNC basketball rivalry - especially if iit risks losing out on UNC.
Even if you say that UNC can't pull this and the conferences will do what they like, VT is not sufficiently superior to UVA to risk losing UNC as an addition. If someone is going to take UNC and NCSU together, they will probably take UVA also. They are going to want ONE Virginia school to get turf for cable money.
Do you agree that TWO Virginia schools going to one conference doesn't make sense?
I think VT is a better straight up choice for the SEC than UVA. Someone behind the scenes in VA should really be putting heat on UVA to go B10 and not go SEC or they will crowd out VT.
The question that needs to be asked is "Will UNC balk at the SEC - which its fans prefer, if they don't go in with UVA (NCSU is a given)?"
My guess is that NCSU is more important to them now and this NC legislative strong-arming might work to VT's favor.
This decision is going to come down to "Is UNC going to be so upset to lose UVA as a rival, that it would cause them to pick the B10 over the SEC? I sort of doubt it, but this is a risk.
UVA and UNC need to get pried apart conference-wise and UVA needs get nudged into the B10. UVA is going to have tell UNC, "Hey our politicians won't let us go with you to the SEC."
Now I feel better about this. UNC would rather jettison UVA than go B10. If UNC does go B10, the SEC will grab us. That's the way to look at this.
** Edited by TDVick at 4/10/2024, 10:46:59 AM
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Stech
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TSL boards. Consequently, I am glad you said that. I have thought for at least 21 years, when the final list of schools in a Power Conference was set that Virginia Tech would be one of them. This guy is probably just lucky, but he was ahead of everyone on USC/UCLA, Oregon/Washington and the 4 Corners schools. People laughed at him on all three of his predictions. However, because of that, his latest prediction on the ACC concerns me. So are you telling me this is just poppycock? 🤷♂️ If so, I am happy to hear it.
(In response to this post by Hokie83)
2y
rather his personal musings. The previous accurate calls he made were based on facts leaked by his sources. He made a point of emphasis that he has no actual facts to report on the moves we are discussing now, just his gut feeling.
I think The SEC/ESPN and B1G/Fox would refuse to be forced in to a package deal. Why would they buy a product that they really don't want? But then I remember Missouri, not a dream addition, but The SEC took them in to balance the TA&M deal. Would they cave in again just to make sure UNC doesn't fall into the arms of the enemy?
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Stech
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and honestly, I was half asleep. That’s a huge miss and to put out such details on feelings instead of inside information from a well respected source is disturbing. My concern is that I know many meetings happen the week of the Final Four between Conferences and Schools, and that he got inside information. If that’s not the case, the only thing disturbing is he is doing this without great sources behind it.
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he has never seemed credible to me, but what do i know?
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Vippie1
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Or is it UNC has the juice to demand State and UVa and VT dont have the juice to demand each other?
Whatever - I'm pretty sure it aint going down like that.
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And they will make the decision about where Carolina goes (likely with NC State?)
** Edited by Millpoint at 4/9/2024, 6:34:06 PM
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2y
But he was right about USC and the Big Ten. He was also right about Oregon and Washington to the Big Ten and the "four corners" to the Big 12. He was saying these things months in advance. That does not mean he will be correct about defections from the ACC. Time will tell and we shall see. Also may have misunderstood but I didn't catch that he said VT to Big 12 but I didn't listen to the entire episode. I thought he said the remaining ACC schools would likely stick together and keep the money. If it does happen, I'd guess the ACC would add UConn, USF and Tulane. This should make ND happy.
** Edited by Millpoint at 4/9/2024, 4:39:42 PM
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have any ACC Schools leaving. He does mention Oregon State and Washington State possibly joining the ACC to help out Cal and Stanford.
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If te ACC wanted OSU-W & WSU, they would've at least talked...
to them but Cal & Stanford reportedly didn't want those 2 Pac-12 schools to join them in the ACC. It seems that the ACC would grab schools like Tulane and Rice and AAU school South Florida. Maybe the 3 service academies for football only.
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Stech
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probably need to listen to it again. It was just a side thing and not the main theme of the podcast in the least. That said, the ACC had a hard time getting Stanford, Cal and SMU passed l, so there was likely little or no chance of getting those two in the first round.
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VPI_1998
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should be USF. Huge school, sizeable market.
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** Edited by Millpoint at 4/10/2024, 9:27:35 AM
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Stech
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Did something very recent change that?
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It's worth a google. It's small but very nice. Looks like they have a practice facility next door. Should help their programs grow to it's potential. A real sleeping giant. They will be good for the new ACC.
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HOO86
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Oregon State's President indicated that they were not interested because of the travel. Said they would have to be paid a lot of money to do something like that.
If we're going to add more out west, look at San Diego State before those two (Oregon State/Washington State). Also consider Colorado State, more populous than Oregon. Then probably Oregon State. The academics at Washington State are significantly worse than Louisville.
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2hhoop3
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Presidents two of the more vocal ones that the PAC 12 value was $50MM per team? Wonder if they still think that way now? The PAC 12 leadership (Presidents and ADs) were a collective group of morons. They let Larry Scott fleece them multiple times, had the arrogance and ignorance to think they knew their value better than industry experts and basically killed the conference with the most resources after the B1G and SEC. Any school should think long and hard before hiring an administrator with a PAC 12 address on their resume and the hiring school would be well served in asking a lot of questions in conjunction with extensive due diligence.
** Edited by 2hhoop3 at 4/9/2024, 7:19:09 PM
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HOO86
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The mistake by the PAC12 was allowing Larry Scott to not accept ESPN's offer in 2016 or so to assume the PAC12 Network and provide a renewal contract for the conference. Larry Scott was looking at a Windfall from Equity Investment and the streaming services that were pipe dreams. By the time they got rid of him, USC/UCLA had decided they wanted to leave. But if they had accepted ESPN's offer, they'd be complaining about their deal just like FSU/Clemson.
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
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2hhoop3
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is most likely true. Sadly, I think ESPN and FOX picked the winners many years ago and virtually every deal since has been about protecting and enhancing their golden children to the detriment of all competitors while attempting to appear independent, objective and stave off anti-trust scrutiny.
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2y
friend. Now it's time for The SEC to face the same reality. The SEC is under exclusive contract to ESPN until 2034. When they have achieved their realignment objectives, they will offer The SEC a taste of austerity.
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obguthr
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These recent deals were ridiculous with the sole goal of consolidating preferred content.
(In response to this post by 33laszlo99)
I would like to know his accuracy
and compare the 4 or 5 he guessed correctly to the 100 or more that he has completely whiffed on. I know he's mainly there for the clicks and is competing with dozens of other conference realignment gurus who are pressuring each other to see who outdoes each other with their daily "insider" (mis)information. I noticed a majority of these podcasts are from Big 12 country.
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2y
He seems to "wish" ND to the Big Ten and says it's just a matter of time but that has never happened. He's not Greg Swaim or Dude from WV. These guys do throw everything on the wall and see what sticks. I've never found Fluguar to be that way. He did also correctly say the Big Ten had no interest in Cal Berkeley and that did prove to also be right.
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2y
and pretty much everything he says can be dismissed as his own personal opinion. He has zero connection to college athletics or sports media. He's not even local media, or anything at all, really. He's just some nobody from Minnesota who follows the Gophers and claims he gets his information from (shocker!) a "big money Gophers booster" that (shocker!) he can't name. His shtick is putting anything and everything out there, then acting like he's "in the know" if something happens later on. His only real big "inside info" that has ever stuck to the wall was when he correctly predicted USC was leaving for the B1G, and then they did. Ever since then, he's been acting like he has some kind of direct line to the movers and shakers in college football and sports media. He makes dozens of predictions every week.
Frankly, my personal opinion or yours about what will happen in college sports should carry just as much weight as Greg Flugaur's. I would just ignore him if I were you.
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before anybody else got them. Again, I hope you are right, but for the first time in 21 years, I am concerned for Virginia Tech missing out on the P2 while our neighbors UVA, UNC and NCSU may have an invite without us.
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When the PAC 12 imploded, the 4 corners had no place to go except the Big 12. That was an easy prediction.
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Stech
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so if he’s wrong, his game will be fully exposed. “If” he’s right, then I have to think he has some really good sources. The two that surprised me the most was Clemson to be the SEC, instead of the B1G. I don’t see South Carolina or Georgia wanting them, and ESPN making a lot of money off of them versus new markets. Second, the specific $200 million a school to leave. That’s a really specific number and makes it sound like a done deal.
Again, I hope he’s wrong, but I have to be honest, I am a bit more concerned than I have been in the past. Hopefully that concern goes away soon.
(In response to this post by Atlee Hokie)
2y
there were plenty of people online predicting those moves to happen in some way, shape, or form. The difference between them and Flugaur is that when Flugaur makes predictions (and he makes a LOT of them, most that don't come to pass,) he pretends he personally knows the leader of the cabal secretly in charge of the B1G, who, for some reason, tells him all the cabal's secret plans, even though this person presumably knows that Flugaur immediately spreads the secret information all over the internet.
Anybody on this board, right now, could be well read about conference realignment, imply to everyone that James Pitaro is secretly passing them along non-public, insider information, make 5-10 predictions a week about future events, then show up to collect internet clout when one or two of those predictions come true several years down the line. Don't fall for it.
By the way, I was classmates with a certain P2 commissioner at Harvard Law back in the 80s - we played golf at Shadow Creek a couple months ago, and, after several mick ulchies, he told me that nobody cares about about UVA, and they're sort of a running joke in the conference admin offices...everyone in the office has to stop what they're doing and chug a warm beer any time UVA is publicly referenced as a coveted expansion target. He says it happens 5-6 times every Friday afternoon, and it was funny at first, but he's really getting sort of sick of the joke.
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2y
Your last two posts have been nothing other than an all-out attack. If you don’t respect his opinions, you are certainly entitled to see it that way. But why the hate?
You say that he is not connected and uniformed. I disagree. Mention any college FB team, which his callers sometimes do, and he will tell you the strengths and weaknesses, coaching staff, key players, recruiting/portal results. He knows the upcoming high school talent. Flugaur is the most thoroughly informed college football pundit I have ever seen on any platform, period.
Your last paragraph on the post above is the oiliest instance of name-dropping in recent memory. And it is extreeeeemly credible especially with that beer chugging detail. Great touch.
Is it just envy?
(In response to this post by Baltimore_Hokie)
2y
there are plenty of others out there that will tell you the same thing. I don’t know the guy; I have no animosity towards him. I just think he’s full of it. If you enjoy his stuff, please continue to do so! Won’t hurt my feelings. I just caution against treating what he says as gospel.
And, perhaps I wasn’t being as ham fisted as I was trying to be, but the last paragraph was meant half as a joke, half as an example of how easy it is to make things up on the internet. I’ll be clear here that I did not go to Harvard Law, and I don’t play $1000 rounds of golf with major conference commissioners. When I make jokes in the future, I’ll try to do better.
(In response to this post by 33laszlo99)
2y
(In response to this post by Baltimore_Hokie)
2y
history here. Baltimore_Hokie has it correct above. He is a propaganda mouthpiece set to push agendas. Every time someone repeats his nonsense the propaganda puppeteers succeed in their objective. Just need some personality to strike up VT favored scenarios and start pushing them out. With the expection of maybe USC a tad early - he puts things out there as they become obvious to all. He just has a platform to do so.
Now VT unfortunately could be left out in a few different scenarios. VT could be also be included in a few different scenarios.
(In response to this post by Stech)
S
Stech
2y
each one of these. Months ahead, so much that when he said them, pretty much everybody said he was wrong. Now it could be all luck, but it could be he has connections too.
By the way, things he said that I think are likely. FSU and Miami to the B1G, that is where I think they are going to end up. UNC and NCSU, to the SEC, these two through the Board of Governors are tied to the hip, although I think it’s okay as long as one of them ends up in a P2. UVA goes wherever UNC goes, I think that is true. Clemson to the SEC, is the one that I would be surprised by, I doubt, USCe, UGa would want that. I have always thought they would go to the B1G. South Carolina is small state population and geographically, and I don’t think either ESPN or the SEC, needs them, but the B1G is another story. They want a stakeholder in the Deep South for recruits and a new audience. Lastly, Virginia Tech, I keep hearing if the P2 stops at 20 a piece, we are the last one out because UNC wants UVA. Now I don’t want any of this to be true that he is saying, but what he’s saying isn’t far fetched. It doesn’t make it true, but he sure beat everyone to the punch on USC/UCLA, Oregon/Washington and the 4 Corners schools. So add all of that up, and for the first time in 21 years, I am nervous about Virginia Tech missing out on the P2. I hope he’s wrong, but what he is saying is not far fetched if you take them one at a time.
** Edited by Stech at 4/10/2024, 1:40:40 AM
(In response to this post by 133966Hokie)
I
INSIDE99
2y
This Flugar scenario is a first - and he has no clue or his sources have no clue. I think everyone (including myself) have taken stabs at what we think is going to happen with realignment. All part of the joy of college athletics predictions. Even the sources don't know for certain. The only ones who have an idea are the TV networks.
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
I admit I have no idea what will happen. I just know that it will be
arbitrary. I feel like I know what SHOULD happen. But it's hardly worth the trouble putting into written words since the powers that be are going to do what they want to anyway. And it won't make sense and will be filled with hypocrisy.
(In response to this post by INSIDE99)
2y
even if we play the sister's of the poor every time. I have no idea where this ends, just let me know when the dust settles.
I am looking forward to this season (I hope Drones is our QB!)
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
I
INSIDE99
2y
If that is along the lines of what you are trying to state, I agree. It has ruined college sports from every angle.
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
Everytime I attempt to listen to Flugaur...
all I can think of are those ealry 1980's SCTV Bob and Doug McKenzie skits. Flugaur needs a co-host so he can be introduced and sing "Coo-Roo-Coo-Coo-Coo-Coo-Coo-Coo-Coo" and then say "Take off, eh... to the Great White North eh!"
** Edited by Old Line Hokie at 4/9/2024, 12:57:20 PM
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
V
VPI_1998
2y
stammering, the repetition, the slow-talk and the constant "we don't have time to go over this now" line really makes it hard to listen. Instead of stammering and repeating, talk faster and you can have plenty of time to "go over this now"
(In response to this post by Old Line Hokie)
2
2hhoop3
2y
Newman from Seinfeld, just not as smart. He is a little puppy dog being led around by the nose by his handlers and spewing whatever propaganda they give him that suits their motives and goals.
(In response to this post by Old Line Hokie)
2y
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
2y
To the mattresses. It's business. It's not personal.
(In response to this post by marcbvtgm)
S
Stech
2y
and Washington, and then the 4 Corners Schools to the Big 12. He seems to have good contacts on realignment.
(In response to this post by marcbvtgm)
2y
Sponsor? I don't buy this guy having a pulse on what the SEC wants either. UVA over VT to the SEC makes absolutely no sense on so many levels.
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
2y
it could sponsor it too. Just because the SEC currently doesn't sponsor a sport, it doesn't mean it has multiple schools playing the sport in another conference. FWIW I think there are some SEC schools currently playing in the MAC or Sun Belt for a sport currently not sponsored by the SEC.
(In response to this post by Sunsetunderground)
S
Stech
2y
** Edited by Stech at 4/9/2024, 4:50:34 PM
(In response to this post by Sunsetunderground)
2
2hhoop3
2y
that worked out for Miami in 2003. The hubris of individual schools to think they drive the bus is pretty comical. It is really going to be funny watching the Longhorns when they finally realize the SEC is not their former Big 12 fiefdom.
(In response to this post by Stech)
2y
I refuse to believe the SEC would want UVA over VT, and have heard no valid argument as to why they would want UVA. This is about football, UVA doesn't and never has cut it. Maybe SEC doesn't want VT, but I refuse to believe they want one of the worst football programs in the conference.
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
2y
(In response to this post by cvillehokie92)
2y
private and simply doesn't have the fan base that VT has. If the B1G has FSU then they don't need UM in Florida over VT in Virginia.
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
D
dayooper
2y
I would choose VT over Miami every day of the week and twice on rivalry weekend. I believe your sports and academic cultures are more like a Big10 school than you think. Games in Ann Arbor, Columbus, Lincoln and Happy Valley can get crazy. Rabid fan bases that love all of their sports. More so than Miami or UVA. I believe you would make a great rival for PSU (they sorely need one) and maybe you already hate UMD (they need someone to give a rats behind about them). Academically you are no slouch and would be a good addition there as well. I have long thought VT would be a great addition.
I’m not making the decision and the issue is VT doesn’t fulfill what I believe are the Big10’s 3 non academic requirements more than Miami; adding to the media contract, marketing to general population student into new and large markets and new areas for rich alumni to gather and donate. Miami does at least 2 of those very well. Now I don’t have the greatest grasp on Blacksburg and could be wrong, but it’s my assumption that it’s not a Mecca for Big10 alumni nor a heavily populated urban area.
(In response to this post by IB4TECH)
S
Stech
2y
Then at least another third from Richmond/Virginia Beach area. The amount of high donors is strong in all three areas. DC is ridiculously expensive to live in compared to the rest of the state, Richmond has many Fortune 500 Companies and is well known for entrepreneurs, and people starting up companies. Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads has 13 military bases including the largest Naval Base in the World. It also builds all the Aircraft Carriers and many submarines. It houses NASA and other great engineering companies. Not to mention the largest wholesale building supplier in the world, Ferguson Enterprises. All of these companies rely heavily on Virginia Tech graduates.
By the way, one of the most amazing things about our fan base is that about 60% drive an average of 4 hours to a home game. That’s why we travel so well to Bowl Games and other away venues. Many travel long distances to be at a home game. I have hosted in the past tailgates before a game for years where we had people come from London, San Francisco, Texas, Florida, Minnesota, Las Vegas, just to name some. An unwritten rule there is to be hospitable to away fans. The overwhelming majority of us love to treat our away fans like they are guests in our home, which to us it’s not a slogan, Blacksburg is our home, and the place we grew into being an adult.
** Edited by Stech at 4/10/2024, 1:50:10 PM
(In response to this post by dayooper)
2y
people, and particularly consultants, don't understand is that you literally get the state of Virginia with VT. UVA is a non-entity as it relates to football, and Tech grads and fans are scattered throughout the state...not to mention rabid.
(In response to this post by dayooper)
E
EDGEMAN
2y
Miami has almost no fanbase. Their fans are a media creation.
(In response to this post by Millpoint)
2y
As the Armadillos unofficial Fiesta Entertainment Director Andre Krimm would say, what ESPN employee doesn't like a good "PAR-TAY?"
(In response to this post by EDGEMAN)
2y
the orher with a conference shift.
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
2y
these clowns haven't done their homework and also think that UNC can just leave NCSt behind anytime they want.
(In response to this post by Hokie12thman)
2y
from joining a P2 conference and all that extra money simply because a P2 conference isn't willing to add another state school/the other state schools. I can't say if it is the right or wrong decision to make because there will be political fallout regardless of what decision is made.
(In response to this post by HokieNoVA)
J
jdkhokie
2y
HB2 bill. NC State legislature told UNC don't ever try to boycott anything again or we will go nuclear on your ass. My hope is Virginia politicians will do the same.
(In response to this post by VTHokie2000)
2y
politicians have taken the position that both UVA and VT have to join a P2 before either school can announce it is leaving the ACC to join a P2 conference. The NC politicians have taken a similar position for UNC and NC State. If you re-read my post again, then you will see that I may not have it backwards after all.
For example, let's assume that UVA has received an invite (formal or informal) to join the SEC and VT has not received an invite to join either the Big Ten or SEC for whatever reason. What my post says is that the VA politicians in Richmond would need to have some large conjones to prevent UVA's move to the SEC and leave all that money on table that would come with the SEC membership simply because VT does not have a home in either the Big Ten or SEC.
(In response to this post by jdkhokie)
2y
That’s the big flaw in all this realignment theory. It just assumes everyone has the appetite and ability to pay these large exit fees. But that is not reality.
ACC has teams by the throat right now with the large exit fee (not even counting the media rights). Invites to the P2 don’t matter if it buries the school in debt just to try and exit the ACC
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
2y
These are billion dollar enterprises that the State is going to protect BOTH. They either go together or none at all. This is not simply a attorney general position, but the Governor/Executive Branch and the General Assemby. This is the most bi-partisan consensus the State has going for it. guess what, each Board of Visitor member is appointed by the the Governor. He/she represents the governor's intent. if they dont, they can be replaced without ANY hearing. that goes also with the President.
We dont need to go to that level, the 2 universities are full partners in so many things and they will not go without the other. If they want the VIRGINIA MARKET, that's that the deal.
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
2
2hhoop3
2y
again. The university endowments have a lot of restrictions and they are not a piggy bank that can be used. You also have a flawed understanding of the BOV appointment and dismissal process. Your knowledge in every claim you made in the post I am now responding to is suspect, at best, and flat out wrong, at worst. You may have a new name but, you appear to be peddling the same old BS.
(In response to this post by DMV Gobbler)
2y
I'm thinking, the powers to be, that NC state might be a good price to carry along UNC....
This is why its critical that VT has a 'magical' special season, with a magical quarterback, undefeated, and create a intriguing brand. Right now, in the national narrative... We see a 'new' national' women's basketball team, lose it's star, and crash and burn, then coach leaves in the middle of the night, quoting that VT does not have the resources to compete with 'the best women's basketball league the sec" and then bringing most of the top 15 recruiting class. No blame .. but it is what it is. and mens' losing 7 on the roster, just doesnt give the 'good eye test.
This is not my personal views, but to idependent business types who make these decisions, and have no emotional tie-ins it feeds a narrative. Our challenge, as fans, is dont feed the narrative.and lets hope our leaders are doing what is needed and sticking their necks out.
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
2y
Vt does not like risk- in 1950 they didnt see the directiom of bowl games and didnt lead but remained im the southern conferemce while rest wemt on
Vt goal to get into the acc to be comfortable- will we be left behind to cut of rhe lights instead of being agressive. Amd take risks which are huge- our peer achools are doing daily
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
T
TDVick
2y
** Edited by TDVick at 4/10/2024, 10:43:40 AM
(In response to this post by DMV Gobbler)
2y
(In response to this post by DMV Gobbler)
2y
you do not want to be the last one to turn off the light, while most of the founding members have left.
(In response to this post by Vienna_Hokie)
V
VPI_1998
2y
said - UNC will be taken first by SEC - it is the biggest "BRAND" coveted by both SEC and B1G. Again - I say BRAND - they bring the whole package to either conference. I know many may disagree because many dislike UNC but it's true. And I would agree NCST would come along.
Also agree B1G will take FSU and or Miami - it's a valuable market for them that the SEC already has.
I don't think the SEC really wants or needs Clemson but they do bring a football program to the conference full of good football programs. So they may take them just to round out the numbers.
If this comes to pass where does it leave VT? A bunch of money in a dying conference? They could stay afloat and wait to get invited later to the B1G (cause they will still want the mid-atlantic market maybe) but that's an untenable position.
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
O
obguthr
2y
and we will miss this one, but get picked up on the next one. Either the P2 becomes too unwieldy and breaks apart into smaller entities or the chaff of those conferences is relegated, creating opportunities for the "best of the rest".
As terrible as the decapitated ACC will be, it might only be temporary and we will earn as much as the defectors. They will NOT get full shares in their new conferences and WILL have to pay some sort of substantial exit fee to the ACC.
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
If we were left out of a first round, we would quickly lose our
football status. And any brand we have would quickly fade with no real tv coverage to speak of.
(In response to this post by obguthr)
H
HouClone
2y
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
2y
If ND could cherry pick any school not in the B1G or SEC, who would they be to create a football affiliated group (not the dreaded conference) of 8 schools?
(In response to this post by Millpoint)
2y
Nothing excites me less, then paying prime dollar for a football game, or investment in major NIL to see the excitement of VT versus Memphis in blacksburg. and a 4-5 hour drive for memphis ghee and then follow up to a delightful full of excitement game with UCONN and East Carolina.
I see a very cloudy road ahead for more collegiate sports except if you are in P2. the rest will just flouder away due to lack of money, investment to compete and offer a valid product. Especially when they get to a pay for play model as employees where the p2 can organize all the contracts, labor arrangements for those 2 and rest just hanging.
These are NOT the peers I like to be playing.
(In response to this post by HouClone)
2y
I would go with smaller rather than bigger if those 6 leave. That way the 1.2 to 1.8 billion in GOR and exit fees would not have to be split as many ways. I would go back to every team playing every team every year. No more than 12 teams max and preferably less I still believe that ESPN "placed" Stanford, Cal and SMU in the ACC AND AZ, AZ ST, Colorado and Utah in the XII as a temporary harbor to rebuild a triple A level west coast conference.
(In response to this post by HouClone)
2y
For some programs, but I have a different take than you.
Call the B12 the new proving ground - purgatory if you will. It's the place where all the "ALMOST" programs consolidate, and when the cream rises to the top for a sustained period of time, and prove their worth to the networks, they will be included in the next round of P2 expansion. (if the P2 experiment works).
No one will leave the B12 unless they have a P2 invite, and anyone not in the P2 or B12 will be trying to get into the B12. There will be no West Coast conference that will compete with the B12.
We are all waiting to see if there is an East Coast centric conference that will compete with the B12 currently (you guys)
Make no mistake though, there will be at least 3 power conferences for now, and the K-States and Utah's of the world will never make as much money as Texas, but they will field teams that can beat them.
The G5 are already the AAA of college football. The B12 and ACC (currently) make enough revenue to rise up to the occasion.
Once the top ACC scools with a P2 invite leave, the bottom 6 of the ACC are not strong enough to achieve enough money to sit at the table.
Louisville will pull a Colorado and become a B12 team, and those without a P2 invite will have to make a tough choice.
The math says there are 8 teams that could dissolve the ACC. Backfilling will not do it in my opinion
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
2y
a P3, they would not have worked so hard to assemble all of the national names into 2 conferences. So I don't see any way they will allow somebody else to crash their end product. There is already a lot of talk about a rebuilt PAC and it just lines up so perfectly to have that in between level to give the P2 coaches and portal players. I also don't think there will be much backfilling as I think 12 teams will be the max for the PAC, XII and ACC and they will be regional and compact enough for the non revs to continue even with the drastic cut in media money coming at the XII and ACC like a freight train.
In fact, I would no be surprised if big media never come to produce any content at any place but the P2. Instead I think they will expect league networks to produce the content and big media will just buy the matchups they want. Don't be surprised to see a XII network in lieu of cash payouts in your next contract and with big media expecting the XII to provide a finished product that they can plant one of their announcers in front of the stream in and send it out again with their guys talking.
As for teams leaving the ACC, when this lawsuit is finished there will be a payout probably north of 200 mil. No team can leave the ACC for the XII with that payout.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
Link with starting point.
I have it linked below at the start of the talk. First 42 mins was not important.
Pro tip: listen at at least 1.5x speed.
Summary for those who don't want to bother:
SEC: UNC, Clemson, NC State, UVa
B1G: FSU, Miami
by 2027
HOWEVER, at the 1:19.40 mark, a caller "Immaculate" (an Iowa guy whose opinion is valued by the show) said he thinks FSU and Kansas or FSU and VT. We'll see.
** Edited by Maroon Baboon at 4/9/2024, 2:29:12 AM
Link:
PATC
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
If so, we would be the best football program left out of the P2.
Not that it matters. Would be like being the tallest midget in the circus.
Would be bad luck for us.
Still rooting for the Hokies with all of my might though.
BTW: I think PATC manipulates the market. I think they did it with Pac-12 teams going to the Big XII so they could get UO and UW at a discount. I am referring to the B1G sources that leak to Flugaur.
** Edited by Maroon Baboon at 4/8/2024, 11:33:44 PM
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
A number of teams better than VT in B12….Also ND….Maybe a G5 team or two
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
2y
The fear I have with this is that it is again UNC manipulating things so they don't have to compete on a football even playing field just like they did in the 60s-2003. Sound like a conspiracy? Well they did it before. To take the next step upward UNC has to return things like they had in the Dooley years when about half their team was from VA and they were the "home team" for large sections of the state.
I think that the 7-8 left over can be a good triple A level conference as long as the Cali teams go back to the new PAC. I do not believe the new ACC can stand the total athletic cost of coast to coast travel, play etc. But I am not sure we can be but so much when the SEC is close all around us (UT to the west, UVA to the north/northeast, UNC and NCSU to the east, southeast), that are close enough to go to a game, including tailgating and not have to spend the night, that almost certainly will diminish us.
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
T
TDVick
2y
their place. UNC hates us but it looks like their administration is losing clout to the NC government. I could see Clemson being a bigger threat to a lot of schools than us. I think a LOT of key SEC schools really don't want Clemson, namely UGA, SCar, Bama, Auburn and UF.
I doubt a lot of B10 teams, such as Ohio State want us to join.
** Edited by TDVick at 4/9/2024, 12:17:43 AM
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
2y
the schools are closely tied, do a lot of shared research and their admins are tightly connected.
Don't know about the others, but disagree completely that Auburn wouldn't want Clemson.
(In response to this post by TDVick)
S
Stech
2y
has got to be hating this if true, but A&M couldn’t stop Texas either. I also thought that if UVA went anywhere it would be the B1G. They really want a presence up North where they get a lot of students, have many alumni, and the B1G is a much better match on their sports. We IMHO had two chances to go to the SEC, but didn’t want to leave UVA because they stood up for us in 2003. Speaking of 2003, this feels like April of 2003, when the leak got out on Miami, Syracuse and Boston College to the ACC. Deja vu all over again, but I am not laughing.
(In response to this post by TDVick)
2y
near getting an invite at any time.
(In response to this post by Stech)
2y
Are you referring to 2003, or now?
** Edited by Will Stewart at 4/9/2024, 2:29:59 PM
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
L
lawhokie
2y
By essentially every metric you can imagine, except for ease of travel
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
2y
than MO and were disappointed we didn't accept. In fact, he added they still wished that had happened. This was in 2021.
The AD didn't really know me other than we kept bumping into each other in the Columbia (SC) Marriott, while their MBB team was in town to play South Carolina. He may have been embellishing, but he seemed pretty genuine.
(In response to this post by lawhokie)
M
Marooned
2y
after UVa strong armed us in.
(In response to this post by lawhokie)
I'm not counting out VT to the B1G.
The caller "Immaculate", who is a guest on other channels thinks it will be FSU and KU or FSU and VT to the B1G.
I think now that the Big Ten has grown to be a national conference, I feel the Big Ten would be great for VT.
** Edited by Maroon Baboon at 4/9/2024, 1:51:41 AM
(In response to this post by Stech)
2y
To me the biggest advantage VT has is the potential of us "winning" the battle for DMV with the SEC. MD does not fear UVA being any threat and already having MD in that area already would make us more attractive to the SEC than the Big. UNC is the other problem. They and UVA need to go to the Big.
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
2y
Sorry MD, you just one vote.
University of Maryland, you dont have the power over the Commonwealth. And frankly more of the DMV is Virginia not MD. (and frankly Fairfax and Loundon County more wealthy than Montgomery/ PG
For both the Big 10 and SEC, to get the VA MARKET, you will be required to take both. Or you can walk and ignore the last untapped market left. (frankly its the same for UNC and NC state).
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
T
TDVick
2y
separated from Duke, I think that is really bad for them. I do think that basketball money will be really significant once the NCAA breakaway occurs. Duke getting separated from UNC would be even WORSE for Duke, but I think they both would be significantly harmed by separating.
The other thing that might not be so bad is if VT gets significant compensation on the departure. Maybe they should pool the VT and UVA TV money going forward, basically making UVA pay to leave. If we aren't as big a revenue disadvantage that would help.
Flugaur mentioned 6 schools paying $200 million each to leave. The problem is that VT will be the most harmed of the remnant schools and will only get pro-rata damages. Basically we will be the only school out of the idiotic "Magnificent 7" that doesn't end up in P2.
UNC, NCSU, UVA, VT and Duke going SEC would be pretty cool.
** Edited by TDVick at 4/9/2024, 1:01:56 AM
(In response to this post by Stech)
E
EDGEMAN
2y
Remember state school vs private school. North Carolina funds state schools, so they will take care of their investment.
(In response to this post by TDVick)
O
obguthr
2y
I'm not sure they will add 4. And I still don't understand Clemson's value. B1G wants them less than they want us and SEC doesn't need them. Maybe ESPN wants them and the SEC will do ESPN's bidding.
(In response to this post by TDVick)
2y
Sure the NC BOV has flexed they muscle and welded UNC and NCSU together and there is nothing like that in VA but still ----.
(In response to this post by TDVick)