marcbvtgm
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Member since:
December 29, 2006
Last post:
05/08/2022 10:05 AM ET
Posting History (4,688)
Football Board
1 d ago
Football Board
2 d ago
What I mean is their record was very deceiving. Fool's gold. Counterfeit.
There were probably 4 wins the other team simply gave them; they didn't earn it. And 13-7 bowl win was against a depleted Missouri with a true freshman QB.
So even though their record was 11-3, in reality they were really more like a 7-5 team - and that was with an easy schedule. I think people projecting their 2026 outcome are superficially putting too much weight on their W-L record - which isn't surprising because most are lazy and don't put any real thought or energy into their projections.
But even with a weak schedule again this year, they have a lesser roster and I don't think they'll pull so many rabbits out of their hat this year.
Football Board
4 d ago
Even with a weak schedule, UVa needs a lot of repeat luck in '26
They were closer to a .500 team in '25 (as finally evidenced in the ACC championship) and this yrs team isn't even as good on paper as last year's. Even with a weak schedule I'm not sure they end up in the top half of the league.
** Edited by marcbvtgm at 7/28/2026, 5:18:33 PM
Football Board
6 d ago
Football Board
1 w ago
Huh? #37 '26 transfer P4 class and middling # of returning starters (8).
VT had a better transfer class (#27) and returns almost twice as many starters (14). As much as VT has question marks, UVa actually has more.
Football Board
1 w ago
Counting on the '25 D to carry over to '26 seems stretch to me.
And again, probably 3 of their wins were not so much what they did, but rather the opponent simply shooting themselves in the foot.
** Edited by marcbvtgm at 7/23/2026, 9:29:57 AM
Football Board
1 w ago
Football Board
1 w ago
I don’t get the UVa love.
Other than indiscriminately looking at last year’s record and having a weak schedule again this year, I don’t see much to put UVa in the top half of the ACC.
They lost a bunch of experienced contributors, signed an okay - but not overwhelming - ‘26 transfer class, likely will have limited depth and contributions from underwhelming ‘25 & ‘26 HS classes, won several very close games they probably should have lost last year, and finally got exposed as a bit counterfeit in the last competitive game they played vs a not great opponent. To even finish close to last year’s W-L record, they will need to have a whole lot of things go right for a second year in a row.
** Edited by marcbvtgm at 7/22/2026, 7:17:38 PM
Football Board
1 w ago
Football Board
1 w ago
My recollection is 60% chance of @Miami, @Clem or @SMU opener if JMU kept
So I think it would have been an ACC opener if JMU game wasn't canceled. But I'm not 100% of that.
** Edited by marcbvtgm at 7/21/2026, 2:51:29 PM
Football Board
1 w ago
It always comes down the skill/depth of the OL. And last yrs had neither.
You can certainly expect more rushing TDs because the QB will few, if any. And the strength of the returning talent was more in the running game than the passing game.
Nevertheless, 2 or so rushing TD/game is probably about the ceiling unless this team really surprises in multiple ways (like the TEs get almost no touches in the red zone). Virtually no shot of VT having 3 rushing TDs/game. Almost nobody did that last year.
Football Board
1 w ago
Men's Basketball Board
1 w ago
3-16 from 3 in his first 3 games. Most top prospects sat out the last game.
I think the top 8 players for the Wizards squad were out. His 22 points was basically a tree falling in the forest. Nobody heard it.
** Edited by marcbvtgm at 7/20/2026, 2:53:15 PM
Football Board
1 w ago
Football Board
1 w ago
The "convoluted" Bill O'Brien won National Coach of the Year at PSU
And his record was better in his two years at PSU than Franklin's in his first two years..
Football Board
2 w ago
Football Board
2 w ago
Football Board
2 w ago
Looked at ‘25 top 15 returning starters. Only 2 made CFB; both Rd 1 losses
Most could probably be called underachievers. .
** Edited by marcbvtgm at 7/16/2026, 7:24:41 PM
Football Board
2 w ago
Is there much correlation between returning players and success?
Anecdotally, it seems that more times than not, teams which return a lot of starters or scorers, etc. seem to do worse than what those stats seem to imply.
But I don't have any data to back that up.
In the case of VT, lots of returning starters from a 3-9 team seems like a double edged sword.
Football Board
2 w ago
Football Board
2 w ago
Football Board
2 w ago
Football Board
3 w ago
Football Board
3 w ago
Or filtered because you don’t understand how betting and lines work
** Edited by marcbvtgm at 7/8/2026, 7:20:02 PM
Football Board
3 w ago
Football Board
3 w ago
Football Board
3 w ago
Football Board
3 w ago
Lines don't actually predict outcomes. They balance bets.
Usually the markets are in line with each other. But in some cases there are emotional, uninformed bettors moving the line irrationally.
Football Board
3 w ago
Wasn't the US barely favored? How much of that was just emotional US bets?
** Edited by marcbvtgm at 7/7/2026, 9:08:27 AM
The Lounge
4 w ago
Football Board
4 w ago
The Lounge
1 mo ago
Football Board
1 mo ago
Football Board
1 mo ago
Eh, no. Well, Dantonio went 4-2 vs Franklin, so...maybe MSU
Iowa's football resources and talent weren't and aren't on par with PSU. In VT terms, Iowa is similar to Wake or Syracuse or BC.
** Edited by marcbvtgm at 7/1/2026, 11:36:33 AM
Football Board
1 mo ago
You're grading VT on the PSU curve, not the VT curve.
VT beating Louisville is not similar to PSU beating Purdue. It's similar to PSU beating Oregon.
Football Board
1 mo ago
Old news. Weak OOC schedule, beat weaker teams, struggled w/ strong teams.
The record with Vandy wasn't much different.
He did a lot of things right at PSU and is doing a lot of things right at VT so far. But his career record against programs with similar resources and talent has been underwhelming. It remains to be seen if he can get over that all-important hump at VT.
** Edited by marcbvtgm at 7/1/2026, 11:22:54 AM
Conference Realignment Board
1 mo ago
Just posting it is running with it. Discussing it is running with it.
If someone reports the moon is made of cheese and then it gets posted and a conversation starts around the report, that's running with it.
Nevertheless, the conversations here are the same old...over and over.
Conference Realignment Board
1 mo ago
I check in here every couple of months but it’s like a time machine.
The conversations never change. The Flugar has been creating pseudo-news for years, yet people here seem to run with it as though it’s actual news.
Conference Realignment Board
1 mo ago
MSU & KU w/ $401M & $300M gifts recently. Still $100M isn't chump change.
** Edited by marcbvtgm at 6/28/2026, 9:16:36 PM
Men's Basketball Board
1 mo ago