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Hokiefied Hokiefied OP
Jul 06, 2026 at 09:56 PM ET
A lesson for VT football can be learned from the USMNT
Don’t believe you deserve to win because everyone says you should win.

45 Replies

Chris Coleman Chris Coleman
I think most would consider Belgium the favorite.
No. 8 in the world vs. No. 17 in the world, and we haven't beaten a European team in like 127 years. Belgium beat us 5-2 back in March. I went into the game thinking we had about a 30% chance to win. We needed to not make critical errors to have a chance. Obviously we didn't do that.
Hokiefied Hokiefied OP
Prediction markets, Vegas, and media all disagreed with you.
Hope you bet heavily on Belgium and made a bundle.
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marcbvtgm
Lines don't actually predict outcomes. They balance bets.
Usually the markets are in line with each other. But in some cases there are emotional, uninformed bettors moving the line irrationally.
U2Hokie U2Hokie
That would be the hopeful Americans betting on the home team, but CC speaks
TRUTH - we had a 30% chance before the goalie started thinking out of the box...
Chris Coleman Chris Coleman
Well, I don't think they are very smart then.
We are a much-improved team. I thought before the WC started we had about a 10% chance to beat Belgium. Then I saw us play, and we were much better than I thought, so I raised my chances to about 30%. But they were always the pretty clear favorite...if you throw out a lot of the happy feels/WC is in America type of stuff, which I'm guessing is what drove a lot of the predictions/bets. ** Edited by Chris Coleman at 7/7/2026, 3:08:41 PM ** Edited by Chris Coleman at 7/7/2026, 3:08:58 PM
Hokiefied Hokiefied OP
Which was the point of my original post as it pertains to VT football
Just because everyone around you says you’ll win doesn’t mean you will. The CJF hype is leading to this type of environment. As for US soccer, while improved, they are still second tier on the world stage. They got b-smacked by a much better team who showed up with a plan to b-smack them. The passive play in the box leading to the first two goals and the bad news bears impersonation that gave up the third reminded me of some the worst moments I had coaching youth soccer. I can hear myself telling my players at half “Attack and control the ball! Don’t wait for it to come to you!” That’s basic stuff and the US team can’t execute it against good teams. Oh well.
bigbadbird bigbadbird
Vegas prob did very well on the uninformed soccer fan jumping on the
bandwagon
VTHokie2000 VTHokie2000
I suspect Vegas was banking on that fact.
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marcbvtgm
Vegas only cares about the volume of betting. The more, the better.
VTHokie2000 VTHokie2000
I was implying that Vegas didn't have to pay out as many winners so it was
easy money for them. After all the house always wins.
Beerman Beerman
Prediction markets don't actually know anything
They're just angling for the vig
V
VT ChemE 1986
Is it men vs boys?
It looks like the US team is very young and small. They lost most of their 1 on 1 battles with the older, stronger players.
VTHokie2000 VTHokie2000
I don't think so because I think skill and development played a bigger role
last night. The European leagues do a much better job of developing the players than MLS/US Soccer Pyramid. Even though majority of the players on the current roster play for a club overseas, the US doesn't have a great development system in place to get the next batch of players ready for future World Cups.
Chris Coleman Chris Coleman
Inside...
VTHokie2000 VTHokie2000
Hence why Ream is a starter for the US even though he is too old to start
for his country and probably too old to start for his club. Now if he had the skill level of a Pepe or Rio Ferdinand, then it would be an entirely different story.
Chris Coleman Chris Coleman
We aren't very young, no. Not by soccer standards.
Our entire midfield is Premier League or Bundesliga players. Premier League is the best league in the world, and the strongest and most physical, and the Bundesliga is really good, too. And those guys are experienced. We've got a ton of experience, overall. Our left back plays in the Premier League. Our right back plays in Spain, a really good league. Richards is Premier League. Etc. Defensively, Belgium was by far the best team we've played, and they were always going to make it difficult for us to score. What we had to do to stay in the game was not make critical errors, and obviously we didn't do that. Main thing we lack is depth in defense (Ream is too old to be starting, but we don't have any other choice) and a top goal keeper. If we are better at those two spots, last night's game probably would have gone to extra time. ** Edited by Chris Coleman at 7/7/2026, 12:16:00 PM
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Hate2SeeItEnd Hokie
Youth doesn't mean you will be good in 4 years.
If we have a team of youthful players that aren't good enough internationally to break into the top 8, then there's the solid chance that in 4 years, they still won't be good enough to brake into the top 4. Sometimes, having youth simply means you have a long time in the future to be "not that good." If the youth is super talented (and ours isn't) then you have the chance to be much better in 4 years. ** Edited by Hate2SeeItEnd Hokie at 7/7/2026, 2:50:31 PM
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Jackie VT
Our goalkeeping used to be a strength. We have really fallen off there.
bigbadbird bigbadbird
I thought Belgium was really good ? who said that ?
HoakieBS HoakieBS
Vegas had U.S. as slight fave.
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marcbvtgm
Vegas sets the opening line - which predicts betting, not outcomes.
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mancunian
There’s a reason those casinos are so big
bigbadbird bigbadbird
Vegas would never lead you astray
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VT757to276
The real experts didn't have expectations for US to progress much deeper..
the US would need 2 generational players playing in the same time period to even have a shot. It's easier to do it on the women's side but millions of (non-US) boys are playing soccer/futbol from 4 yr olds up dreaming about one day playing for their national team.
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Hate2SeeItEnd Hokie
Soccer doesn't get our best athletes like other countries do
Russia-Great MMA fighters, Boxers, UFC, Dagestan and all the rest. Their best athletes go into mixed martial arts early on. South America and Africa and Europe? Their best athletes are going into soccer early on, not American football and they pursue soccer even more than basketball. As for the USA? Our best are going into basketball and football early on and in the northern 50 percent of the USA, our best athletes often choose hockey over soccer if not good enough in hoops and football, so in summary, COMPARED to the Europeans, Africans, and Central and South Americans, our best athletes often choose something other than soccer unlike the countries and locations named above Imagine our Michael Jordans, Lebron's, Randy Moss, John Stockton's, Patrick Mahomes (all great athletes) doing everything possible from age 5 to make it in big-time soccer. That's how it is for these other countries.
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HokieBrazil
I would agree regarding South America,but not Europe,athletes there go into
a variety of sports, not just soccer. The difference is that there is a youth development system there, which we don't. We have traveling soccer, which is a pay for play. Talented kids whose parents can't afford that have no chance. MLS clubs aren't going out there building academies for the U-10 onwards. Soccer in the US is a middle class suburban sport.
VTHokie2000 VTHokie2000
I believe a good percentage of Russia's best athletes are still pursuing
ice hockey at an early age. I'm not sure if the majority are truly pursuing MMA/boxing over ice hockey vs. it appears that way because not as many are leaving the KHL to go play in the NHL. Also, it worth mentioning that in parts of Europe, African (i.e. South Africa and Namibia), Australia, and New Zealand that good percentage of the best athletes opt to pursue a create in rugby (league and/or union) and cricket rather than soccer. Most Americans don't realize how big those sports are in other parts of the world because they aren't really played here in the US.
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Truthahn
I've been to Colombia. TVs there are just soccer viewing devices.
VTHokie2000 VTHokie2000
Some would say in certain countries around the world that boys are born
dribbling a football.
C
ChrisLords
I think the comparison is VT men's basketball team.
2 Sweet sixteens in their history.
T
Truthahn
1967 VT finished in the elite 8
We lost to Dayton or we would have been in the final four.
VTHokie2000 VTHokie2000
FWIW the US did finish in 3rd Place in the inaugural World Cup (1930)
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Truthahn
USMNT got to the final 8 in 2002.
Lost to Germany with a suspect hand ball call. Too bad Trump was not around to overturn that one (LOL). USMNT also played Brazil in the 2009 confederations cup final, a eight team tournament of confederation champions played the year before the world cup. Too bad but they don't do it anymore. It was hosted by the world cup host nation as a early, smaller, trial run tune up event for the real thing a year later. That would have been great to host last year in the US, as a world cup appetizer event. Two other moments that the USMNT was probably better than this time. I can think of two more as well, but this is a VT board so two is enough.
VTHokie2000 VTHokie2000
I had forgotten about the 2002 World Cup. I get why the OP made the
comparison to VT men's basketball.
HoakieBS HoakieBS
The last time they beat Belgium, BTW!!!
VTHokie2000 VTHokie2000
It does show that the US could have used the success to really become a
soccer nation, but the people chose to go in a different direction. Instead of being a blue blood in soccer, we are a blue blood in other sports.
Hokiefied Hokiefied OP
In terms of peeking sure. In terms living up to expectations? Nope.
VT wasn’t favored and being hyped in their sweet 16 game but how many times has the football team been the bell of the ball only to get taken advantage of in the coat room and left with the check for dinner? Countless.
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marcbvtgm
Wasn't the US barely favored? How much of that was just emotional US bets?
** Edited by marcbvtgm at 7/7/2026, 9:08:27 AM
Hokiefied Hokiefied OP
“Barely favorite” is still being the favorite
Prior to the striker being reinstated, a draw had the highest probability.
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marcbvtgm
You conveniently ignored the 2nd question...
Hokiefied Hokiefied OP
I’d say I filtered for relevance and yes that’s convenient.
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marcbvtgm
Or filtered because you don’t understand how betting and lines work
** Edited by marcbvtgm at 7/8/2026, 7:20:02 PM
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Hate2SeeItEnd Hokie
I don't think VT was favs in sweet 16 games nor was the US
There was hype for sure, but from true soccer fans that are knowledgeable that follow the sport closely and giving an objective take? Belgium was better than us going into that game and true fans knew it. We had hype and hope, but those 2 don't make you favorites. ** Edited by Hate2SeeItEnd Hokie at 7/7/2026, 9:02:11 AM
Hokiefied Hokiefied OP
US was favored last night with draw the second most likely.
Hope CJF is paying attention as the hype of his hire is building expectations.
C
CMU Hokie
Felt like 2005 Miami
Pooped the bed