U2Hokie

the program above Buzz and we have sank a bit for sure...it took him a long time to get over his "system" basketball and adapt to the new frontier - again IMHO - but he is a great VT advocate and wont bring shame to VT in any way shape or form... I hope the new VT AD provides him with what he needs to take the next step and VT makes a tourney run!

And I understood you were spoofing, but I did not realize it was regarding Whit haters...interesting play honestly... Whit hired some good/great non-rev / small-rev coaches - Swim SL Miro Softball Pete D Rastlin Robie MBB Buzz maybe a few more - but hanging Coach Fu out to dry and then hiring Pry and letting him hire Marve and Bowen as 1st year coordinators - OMG that was so baaaaaaad! ** Edited by U2Hokie at 7/18/2026, 6:47:03 PM

tranparency (in televising games)... but im not a great comprehensive reader either....

Off with his head!

TRUTH - we had a 30% chance before the goalie started thinking out of the box...

I was looking for your latest spins on both mens and womens BB teams - like your perspective! My sense is that the women did better than the men this cycle and that any impact from BOV $$$, CJF push, new AD hire will impact both teams in 2028 vs 2027...? But the womens team seems to be ahead of mens on paper...

metrics - but it just has not hit the main stream or could be considered "confidential/proprietary"... I think they have all the data and I agree that there is a potential proxy - but that could also include tunnel factor and pitch selection. Keep up the great work QCP! Only pitch I had rated a 1 by Houston was a late breaker and got tons of grounders on...moved late down and away from righties but tunneled my fastball till the last 10 ft...rest of my sstuff was average AA stuff...then shoulder fell apart - lol!

plate - the whole distance - but nothing on break for the last 20 ft or so? IVB - induced vertical break HB - horizontal break

movement on pitches - I have not found one and it seems valuable for obvious reasons...I read about "late breaking slider" or "drops off the table split" - but are pitch labs measuring it yet?? Tunneling measure is pretty cool fore the release - but that late breaker is so hard to actually hit hard...

gives them a year or two with more NIL money - target 2027-28. Lumping CMY with CMD is also putting apples and oranges on the same comparison block - cant do it - there is no comparison - except neither have the $$$$ needed to truly compete for ACC titles. CMY is treading water, barely, and close to retirement while CMD is gaining momentum with her own recruits and portal players. Wrestling, Baseball and Softball, Track and Field, Swimming M&W, and Volleyball are all in line for 2028-29 Go Hokies!

This is based on many articles I skimmed - where are our brothers?! 1) National Socio-economic demographics lead to a focus on Basketball and Football / less Baseball 2) Professional Marketing of NBA and NFL leads MLB in attracting them 3) Generationally ex NBA and ex NFL are leading their children this direction more than MLB Antidotes: MLB does portray our nations demographics more than NBA or NFL by a lot (exception is Latinos) and MLB has started a MLB Develop program that is increasing the participation in recent years Past CWS Winners and # on the team 2026 Oklahoma 7 (at least 4 were starters) 2025 LSU 4 2024 Tenn 3 2023 LSU 4 2022 Ole Miss 3 2021 Miss State 2 2020 covid canceled 2019 Vandy 3 - 4 2018 Oreggon State 1 2017 Florida 2 2016 Coastal Carolina 3 2015 UVa 0 2014 Vandy 2-3

and in 2025 it was 5.23 ... Praying the new PC and pitching analytics guy from Tenn can change our path - this is awful pitching!

yet he should have had 8-10 saves I think and just unreliable in the long wrong... maybe the change of scenery will help him...

So maybe they fix him? But that is project status to me...

all have in common and why is it that decades of hokie baseball has gone by and we cant add to that list? Can we? Am I missing some key starters that I just missed from 1990 till now? I played with two of them! Great guys! Is there something obvious here? Maybe even wrong here? Makes no sense to me... Admissions issue? USA east coast demographics issue? We are potentially severely limiting ourselves IMHO!

At least he is getting paid something!

In 2026...yes its a streaky game and those freshman pitchers for OU were awesome and you got to like the team overall... But to me, it still does not look great for the ACC with UNC and GT having a DSR of 1 and 3...to use your terms. My point was not to claim someone was better than the winner of the CWS... Capice?

GO HOLES!

Im Hoping anyways...just another ACC bad look...

also. Im rooting for the holes for an ACC CWS win tonight...

---- right...

teams of 25 were displaced - so 14 stuck (56%) - would love to know the rank displacements (I dont have an Athletic pass) - for my money the current rank system is OK and anyone that follows it knows there is a lot of misses - yet the best teams yr in yr out tend to be the ones that recruit the best per those same rankings... Also - if the Athletic, with the large crew, did not suggest a better model - its just watching water going under a bridge and down the way verifying its really water...You dont know which bit of water, but its water...carry on man. My main point I guess is that I thought historians purpose and learned history is so we dont repeat really stupid stuff as a society again 50 to 75 yrs later...so what is the message here - rankings beware people - your team with all 3 stars is as good as Miami and their 4 and 5 stars? I cant buy it... Good luck sir - cheers!! ** Edited by U2Hokie at 6/22/2026, 7:13:24 AM

I have no idea who could be using yours numbers (and what for) since there is no way it helps any one actually offer a player tomorrow to come play football for them in my estimation... Your thirty years are plenty - but many follow rankings and Im 62 and have followed the rankings/recruiting since leaving VT in 1990. If you follow college or pro football you know already they all dont pan out for various reasons and attrition is real. Question - if someone/some team staff uses your conclusion that rankings are BS and should not be used, and they dont use them at all - do you also help them recruit players and if so do you charge a fee? Can you show your method is better than using rankings? What is your methods attrition rate?

I think by looking at just VA data really minimizes your sample of players and recruiting rankings. You spent a lot of time on this, and I think if you got some more critical feedback from some ont you trust you could turn it into something that has real value. Your conclusion should say "Virginia HS recruiting rankings are not reliable..." because that is all the data you have - Also I still dont think they are unreliable due to attrition - thats the nature of the business/sport. Decising to offer a kid includes both the ranking and the character assessment and you cant predict injuries at all. The ranking is and should be skill based only and part of the decision to offer. I think the grey area between 4 and 3 stars you are seeing is an artifact of 1) data response "contribution" watering down any relationship and seperation (for example do a chart of Avg Games Started (Y-axis) and Stars (X-axis) by year (one trend per year) - how many years show negative trend? That is your reliability metric for those that did not attrite 2) Add in attrition and do the same thing as above - now you get a model with attrition included. 3) Look at national recruiting and see where teams were ranked in year 1 and where they finished year 1, year 2, year 3, and year 4 - one of those will have the highest correlation and be a new predictor of the value of rankings and getting high star players on your team. 4) NIL and Portaling really messes up the modern day analysis by adding another layer of data to your HS data - but if you can build the HS data then rest and add in the portal data/rankings too... Again - thanks for debating and responding - Im retired and a degreed stat guy and took courses in stats in sports over covid - this is a fun convo and your energy on this is awesome!

for the 9-10 years if contribution was career snaps, starts, etc....does the 4 star players seperate from the 3 star players? By saying that someone contributes if they start all games in yr 2 but get beat out in yrs 3 and 4 and equating them to a player that has a full solid three year career of starting all games is very different IMHO... Why water it down to "contribution" as defined? Im sorry, but I still dont see your purpose here with this analysis - what is the objective? Do you think by saying that rankings are BS that things will change and recruiting people will not use them?

work, but also Im not sure you are seeing the forest through the trees. Star/Point rankings are given to HS players before the enter college as a method to project their possible impact and landing at the college level. Your own data suggests the correlation is adequate as P&J posted already. The fact that many fall by the wayside due to attrition does not discount that the ones that stay are "accurately" predicted. To be a "reliable predicitor" the same needs to hold true year over year... I would bet the farm that great programs know what other variables outside of injury related issues drive attrition rates and look for those as well as the star/point rank - also they have "ways" to take a great 4-star from a bad family situation (for example) and cocoon them on campus to some degree. A bad example would be Marcus V at VT - no matter what we did he found trouble and got booted...was he a contributor and attritted? I think so. Before I would call them BS, I would look for alternative measures being used or made up by yourself that does better than the contribution rates you published. This is also a matter of statistics called "estimating small proportions" (those that make it to the NFL) and its really difficult. Applying general consumer reliability rules wont really apply.

They are working out (typically mandatory but Im not sure of supervision allowances - I think its allowed for safety) They are studying film and doing PRP's (Player-run practices) and taking care of lingering or smaller injuries. Alot of this is during the 8 week allowed mandatory sessions with coach supervision. After or before the 8-week period, the activites are volunteer and can still be supervised by coaches. Also - summer school is a key time to either catch up or get ahead so academic loads are lighter in season. I travel through campus and downtown quite a bit during summer to get to some properties and I will say that this football team is low key from what I can tell - which tells me they are where they should be and laser focused! ** Edited by U2Hokie at 6/20/2026, 9:49:42 AM

out their two best players and they will never see the CWS like they used to unless they toss more money at the SB program. (We are kind of in the same boat unfortunately)... ** Edited by U2Hokie at 6/17/2026, 7:17:23 AM

We got a great coach who wont put all her kids on the team for free...

and had one BIG surprise to me...we were #2 (tied) in fielding percentage! (our turf?) Hitting was 12th as we got off to a slow start... And then Pitching (if you can call it that - maybe BP is better) = comes in at 16th with an era at 6.95. Atrocious...CJS and new guy have som e work to do...

Bowl game…maybe vs Michigan?

with AT pitching. back then you could get behind the fence at homeplate and see the pitches. It was incredible to watch her riseball hop! Then she would throw the occasional drop and batter would miss by ~2 ft or just take it and she could throw it for strikes too!

and only head coach before Pete. He replaced Ron Reynolds that managed the Club team prior to 1996 (Im 75% sure on this - and Ron's daughter was a club team catcher I believe). Ron's a great coach btw. Scot was working in the laundry room for athletics when they posted a need for a softball head coach and since he played baseball at ETSU - he put in for it and got it! Hows that for down the hall hiring! We had the Rhodes sisters, Va, fast as lightning, hit 200. We had new good non-va blood come in for AT's soph year with Mariconda, Savre, and Ota. and we solidified our OF with Va products Everhart and Stolle. But they just were not Elite hitters, they were Average D1 hitters. Very decent on Defense though! course AT KO'd many! K Hoffman was a great catcher catcher - nobody ran on her and she was a DOG leader! Married our fullback! Fun fact - I went to a hitting clinic Scot gave to some peeps in Salem and it was not great IMHO...I recall heading home thinking - that explains a lot... Pete and co. has brought us to a WHOLE NEW LEVEL and I believe if we had AT now - we would be in the CWS for sure!

JMU has had no real pitching coach until 2025 signing Scruggs...after Libby left. I believe a program like JMU had should have had a pitching coach to maintain some of the prestige they amassed. For whatever reason they decided to run with Laporte and Herzig and no pitching coach I said that they really have not helped Fleet cause there was no real pitching coach. My experience in the games of baseball and softball may surprise given i was a player, professional, coach, and a student of the game. I know that the pitching coach does not always call the pitches, may never, but when a great rise ball is sluffing into a corkscrew no hop flatty - i dont want a mentor to fix it, I want a pitching coach. I learned from C Kempf and Denny T. Let it go and have a great day - you like Herzig as a pitch caller/mentor and I say JMU made a mistake by not having a real pitching coach around and my intel is from a player i saw for 4 yrs and actually caught on occasion - Also, she sweet as can be and is not bad mouthing anyone there - but she was surprised by the situation after her freshman year...JMU can and should be better.