For anyone dreaming of playoffs, here is a reality check
Granted, this is one twitter view of possibilities. But it very clearly shows what we are up against.
VT could have 10 wins and still not get an at large spot. We could be passed over by teams with only 8 or 9 wins. All because the P2 strength of schedules will be considered harder and they have pre-negotiated more spots. Even 11 wins for VT would not be a lock for an at large bid.
55 Replies
2y
** Edited by uber hokie at 7/6/2024, 9:24:55 AM
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
Hoos only need 10 and ND and VT need 11?
So much for a credible chart.
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
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83Hokie
2y
** Edited by 83Hokie at 7/5/2024, 3:28:02 PM
(In response to this post by SarahVTHokie24)
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Blueboy
2y
(In response to this post by 83Hokie)
Make sense when you look at Gators schedule, some surprise me though
A 9 win GT team? Ok If they win just two out of their four with UGA, FSU, Miami and ND, I'll give them that...but which four of those games are they winning?
As for Hokies, kind of sobering to be in the middle of the pack, but just win!
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
I expect all at-large bids to go to the P2 + ND.
The hype machine that is ESPN will demand it. Plus, the P2 will want MAX CFP revenue. As if the TV money disparity isn't enough. This is a greed machine whose thirst is unquenchable at this point.
The FSU snub of 2023 will become the ACC at-large snubs moving forward.
If VT wants in the playoff, they better plan on winning the ACC.
BTW, if one non-P2 at-large ever gets in there, and gets blown out, that info will be used against every non-P2 at-large candid moving forward.
Yeah, color me cynical. But the future CFP will look more like a "SEC-B1G Challenge" in 🏈 moving forward.
** Edited by Maroon Baboon at 7/5/2024, 9:59:29 AM
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
2y
Maybe not initially, but I suspect that ESPN and Fox will make sure the algorithm is tweaked over time to favor the P2. 5 yrs from now your scenario becomes reality.
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
2y
I mean a handful of years or less,will there even be an ACC? And if so would it be relevant after the best teams leave. Your assumption will be true.
** Edited by crazylane at 7/5/2024, 2:53:39 PM
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
2y
I think the outrage will be greater than it has ever been. 3-loss SEC team over 1-loss (fill in the blank) is going to be the new norm. And, maybe it's not wrong but it sure doesn't seem right. Not only will it be a do-over of the regular season, but none of the teams we will be arguing about will have a legitimate shot at a championship anyway.
The ACC is going to have to view the ACC championship game as a round one elimination game.
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
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EDGEMAN
2y
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
totally agree. our schedule is no good. so just win them
all. or win 10. either is cause for celebration
11 wins might do it if the loss is to undefeated Clemson
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
2y
game is almost a deal killer. That could be said of the other conference title losers, too.
A bunch of those at large slots will go to teams with a great record that didn't make their championship game and get another L.
Timing of losses will be critical.
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
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BamBam
2y
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
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Hokie`79
2y
both would have lost to us as well as others.
(In response to this post by BamBam)
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EDGEMAN
2y
(In response to this post by Hokie`79)
just hope we win enough to be in the conversation
that would be very refreshing given the depths to which our football program plummeted.
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
2y
We were 11-0 and barely got in over a 1-loss Nebraska.
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
2y
I'm talking about at the end of the regular season heading into the postseason, after conference championships but before playoffs and bowl games, and only teams in the top 25. This thing talks about teams "in the discussion," but realistically the only way a 10-win team is going to make the playoffs, without getting an autobid from winning their conference, is if they're a huge name program (also they probably needed to at least play for their conference championship game). Like, to just pull an example off this chart, could 10-win Ohio State beat out 11-win Virginia Tech if the field was really wonky that year (wonky field as in, all the good 12-win teams lost their conference championship to some 8 or 9 win team)? Yeah, sure. Is 10-win Northwestern, or Boston College, or Virginia (lol) going to beat out 11-win Virginia Tech for a spot? Not a chance, the playoffs are still primarily about creating the most compelling content for television, and the average person who doesn't care about any of these schools would rather see Virginia Tech or North Carolina than Wake Forest or Bowling Green.
Also remember that the vast majority of those teams that win 11 or more in any given season win their conference championships too, they're going to get an autobid. 2017's week 15 rankings are an example of what most normal years look like. 2021's week 15 is the extreme unusual case (autobid taken by mid-major, huge glut of 10+ win teams in the top 25).
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
2y
That’s the first goal
Win the ACC and we will be in
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
2y
On course not. We know better. How is it that Virginia and West Virginia only need ten wins, but the Hokies, West Virginia and Notre Dame need 11 wins?
Truth be told, it all depends how the other competition does.
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
2y
(In response to this post by Hokie1992)
Whoosh!!! Oh how soon popular culture expires.
(In response to this post by HokieSpartan)
2y
(In response to this post by Culpeper Hokie)
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BamBam
2y
** Edited by BamBam at 7/4/2024, 1:38:41 PM
(In response to this post by HokieSpartan)
2y
This is only for AT-LARGE spots. If VT wins 10 regular season games we could very likely get an automatic bid based on the ACC having 2 guaranteed spots anyway.
This isn't about favoring the P2 as much as it is about our weak schedule. We should not drop 2 games and expect to make the playoffs. Georgia Tech however can drop 3 games and would be in consideration to make the playoffs. There are also 15 non-P2 teams that only need 10 teams.
For a refresher, I don't see how we would be a top team if we lost 2 games with the following schedule:
OOC: Vanderbilt, ODU, Marshall, Rutgers
ACC: Boston College, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Duke, Virginia, Clemson, Miami
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
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VTBoar
2y
(In response to this post by VaTechHokiesACC)
2y
4 BIG
5 SEC
1 ACC
1 B12
1 G5
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
2y
.... well, everyone listed from 13-20.
Maybe better than Miami, haha.
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
Is there an agreed upon formula?
IF NOT WHEN WILL THE criterion be released?
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
2y
Top four ranked conference champions will be ranked 1-4. No automatic conference bids and no limit to the number of teams from a conference.
In general, it’ll be tough for the ACC and Big 12 to get two bids and even tougher for the G5
Link:
CFP 12-team format
(In response to this post by tallahasseehokie)
2y
Will be one done by the CFP selection committee at the end of the season.
(In response to this post by Hokie1992)
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2hhoop3
2y
or a clue. One of the biggest wastes of bandwidth I have ever seen. ND needs 11 wins to get in and GT can get in with 9? That's not a reality check, it is its own self contained fantasy.
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
2y
But, if the P2 wanted to mess with ND and try to force their hand for realignment, then this is the way to do it. Of course it would take more than just one year. Cut off the playoffs and the extra money and ND would have to consider moving.
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
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2hhoop3
2y
as far as forcing their hand for realignment that playoff access is one lever. I also agree it would take more than one year. ND is guaranteed $12MM in playoff money just like a B12 team but, they also get a shot at an additional $6MM by winning it I think. Their real money is the NBC deal.
I understand this table is an SOS based exercise for the current year but, there are things that strain the bounds of reality IMO. One other example being an 8 win UF or 9 win Purdue, UCLA, or others getting in but, it taking 10 wins for OSU? Sometimes, seems to me, these analytics guys rely on their numerical algorithms without checking the numbers for common sense reality.
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
2y
But when trying to predict playoff selections, there has to be weightings for common sense. Some schools have media bias because of their names and past history.
10 win OSU will get in every time over a 8-10 win P2 school that is not a blue blood. His model is far too basic on the back end playoff predictions.
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
2y
...and this is based on preseason rankings. Every year there are multiple overhyped teams who fall well below preseason expectations, and that in turn can really mess up other team's strength of schedule. I don't think this type of projection is worth paying any attention to.
(In response to this post by HokieAl)