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Joined: 07/25/2008
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Synaesthesia

Here's the thing, every year there's only 6 to 11 teams with 11+ wins

I'm talking about at the end of the regular season heading into the postseason, after conference championships but before playoffs and bowl games, and only teams in the top 25. This thing talks about teams "in the discussion," but realistically the only way a 10-win team is going to make the playoffs, without getting an autobid from winning their conference, is if they're a huge name program (also they probably needed to at least play for their conference championship game). Like, to just pull an example off this chart, could 10-win Ohio State beat out 11-win Virginia Tech if the field was really wonky that year (wonky field as in, all the good 12-win teams lost their conference championship to some 8 or 9 win team)? Yeah, sure. Is 10-win Northwestern, or Boston College, or Virginia (lol) going to beat out 11-win Virginia Tech for a spot? Not a chance, the playoffs are still primarily about creating the most compelling content for television, and the average person who doesn't care about any of these schools would rather see Virginia Tech or North Carolina than Wake Forest or Bowling Green. Also remember that the vast majority of those teams that win 11 or more in any given season win their conference championships too, they're going to get an autobid. 2017's week 15 rankings are an example of what most normal years look like. 2021's week 15 is the extreme unusual case (autobid taken by mid-major, huge glut of 10+ win teams in the top 25).
Posted: 07/04/2024 at 09:50 AM ET
(In response to this post by HokieAl)

Thread Replies (55)

Full Thread →
For anyone dreaming of playoffs, here is a reality check
HokieAl • 07/03/24 10:35 PM ET
“PLAYOFFS ? PLAYOFFS ? “ Jim Mora is on line 1
uber hokie • 07/06/24 09:23 AM ET
I just looked up Florida's schedule; ouch!!**
VTfisherman • 07/05/24 10:16 PM ET
Hoos only need 10 and ND and VT need 11?
SarahVTHokie24 • 07/05/24 12:22 PM ET
There is no way hoos get in with 10 unless SEC and B10 really crap the bed
83Hokie • 07/05/24 03:19 PM ET
I think they meant 10 wins over 3 seasons. Still a challenge. **
Blueboy • 07/06/24 12:19 AM ET
Based on schedule strength projections **
hokiepro • 07/05/24 02:15 PM ET
Make sense when you look at Gators schedule, some surprise me though
AirForceHokie77 • 07/05/24 11:25 AM ET
I expect all at-large bids to go to the P2 + ND.
Maroon Baboon • 07/05/24 09:54 AM ET
Theoretically the top 12 teams in the ranking enter the CFP
VT ChemE 1986 • 07/06/24 11:14 AM ET
In the future
crazylane • 07/05/24 02:53 PM ET
Will be interesting
Seikoh_04 • 07/05/24 11:28 AM ET
I'm sure they'll have a token "at large" bid every few years...lol**
EDGEMAN • 07/05/24 11:00 AM ET
totally agree. our schedule is no good. so just win them
proudhokie2001 • 07/04/24 07:44 PM ET
The one Loss in ACCCG or reg season?**
83Hokie • 07/05/24 03:24 PM ET
Let’s just first win at Vandy…….**
Spider73 • 07/04/24 03:36 PM ET
so just win ACCCG.**
BobG • 07/04/24 02:59 PM ET
Too complicated to apply an absolute number of wins. Losing the ACC title
UEMcGill • 07/04/24 02:43 PM ET
No way a 9 win Vandy, GT, or USCe get in over a 11 win VT. **
BamBam • 07/04/24 01:41 PM ET
If we have 11 wins, it’s most likely that Vandy & GT won’t have 9. They
Hokie`79 • 07/05/24 05:42 AM ET
It would be a miracle for Vandy to have 9 wins...lol**
EDGEMAN • 07/05/24 11:01 AM ET
Only if a fluke champ**
83Hokie • 07/04/24 04:24 PM ET
just hope we win enough to be in the conversation
tallahasseehokie • 07/04/24 01:03 PM ET
No different than 1999.
GCHokieof91 • 07/04/24 11:02 AM ET
That was just 2 teams though**
hokiepro • 07/04/24 06:20 PM ET
Here's the thing, every year there's only 6 to 11 teams with 11+ wins ◄
Synaesthesia • 07/04/24 09:50 AM ET
We need to get back to ACC championship games to get to playoff
hokiepro • 07/04/24 08:54 AM ET
I'm glad to see ND at 11.**
Joe Hokie • 07/04/24 08:44 AM ET
Sounds about right...we aren't there.... YET**
HOKIERIT • 07/04/24 08:33 AM ET
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
Hokie1992 • 07/04/24 08:28 AM ET
The Germans didn’t bomb Pearl Harbor. That was the Japanese.**
HokieSpartan • 07/04/24 01:27 PM ET
Over???**
Hardcore_Hokie • 07/06/24 10:16 AM ET
Whoosh!!! Oh how soon popular culture expires.**
Culpeper Hokie • 07/04/24 07:01 PM ET
Soon? That movie was released closer to Pearl Harbor than to today....**
RTFC • 07/05/24 11:37 AM ET
Forget it, he is rolling
BamBam • 07/04/24 01:38 PM ET
I agree with this...
jesuisvtguy • 07/04/24 06:57 AM ET
Man, let us enjoy hope **
VaTechHokiesACC • 07/03/24 11:47 PM ET
Wow. UVA needs "only" 10 wins to make playoff. **
VTBoar • 07/04/24 07:15 AM ET
Unrealistic **
83Hokie • 07/04/24 10:26 AM ET
UVa has only won 10 games once (1989)**
Hokie1992 • 07/04/24 08:31 AM ET
They suck**
Stork • 07/04/24 10:16 AM ET
My favorite coffee mug**
Jbohokie63 • 07/04/24 10:42 AM ET
Jefferson’s Biggest Mistake!**
HokiesChemicals • 07/04/24 06:50 PM ET
He was an oddball **
TomTurkey • 07/06/24 03:12 PM ET
Truth**
Jbohokie63 • 07/04/24 07:36 PM ET
And here is their projected playoff for what it’s worth
HokieAl • 07/03/24 10:39 PM ET
Pfffffttt. Sure. Boise State is better than ...
Will StewartAdmin • 07/04/24 04:04 PM ET
Only way ro be assured - win rhe acc**
1947Sunbowl • 07/04/24 09:30 AM ET
Is there an agreed upon formula?
tallahasseehokie • 07/04/24 12:00 AM ET
This is it
Hokie1992 • 07/04/24 08:48 AM ET
And a huge factor is that the “top 25 ranking)
Hokie1992 • 07/04/24 08:51 AM ET
Ford should get a real job........
2hhoop3 • 07/03/24 10:45 PM ET
I do agree that a 10 or 11 win ND gets in
HokieAl • 07/04/24 09:03 AM ET
You are right......
2hhoop3 • 07/04/24 09:21 AM ET
Absolutely agree. Analytics are good for predicting scores or wins
HokieAl • 07/04/24 09:43 AM ET
Not to mention that not all wins are equal...
MP4VT2004 • 07/04/24 08:53 PM ET