What percentage do you think VT starts the season 0-2?
I think around 65-70%. Just curious, what is yours....?
60 Replies
12mo
(In response to this post by MKD)
12mo
Game 1 USC --> 70% chance we lose, 30% chance we win.
(Experienced proven crew usually beats inexperienced crew)
(That said, USC does not know exactly how to prepare, and it's game 1!)
Here is where it get's interesting.....
If we beat USC, I think we have an 94% chance of beating Vandy.
(momentum, confidence, home field, revenge, proven win against possibly better opponent)
If we lose to USC, then we have a 40% chance of beating Vandy.
(no momentum, lack of confidence, new coaches make changes, we lay another egg)
[0-2] ...... .7 x .40 = 28%
[2-0] ...... .3 x .94 = 28.2%
** Edited by jonnyhawk at 8/6/2025, 11:19:43 AM
(In response to this post by MKD)
12mo
Will anything change?
(In response to this post by MKD)
11mo
Shane has USC well ahead of VT right now, and its going to be an SEC atmosphere in Atlanta that they will be more acclimated to. I don't think losing that game means much on this new staff's maiden voyage.
Before we can get back to expecting those kind of wins, we have to get over the "just beat an out of conference P5 team" hump.
Enter Vandy, one of the many winnable games that has slipped through Pry 's fingers last 3 years. Exactly the kind of stepping stone game Pry has to win to show some kind of progress. We are SO overdue. Pry HAS to get that monkey off his back early.
Forget about post season implications, I think Vandy is a "must win" for Pry to keep the players and the fanbase bought in.
(In response to this post by VT ChemE 1986)
11mo
become a joke. If there are no rewards for winning (unless you consider a bottom tier bowl game an award) and no consequences for losing (Pry is going nowhere), what is the point?
I watch VT football only because I am an alum; and, frankly, I come to this board to watch the almost inevitable trainwreck. My hat is off to you and other fans for keeping the faith; but, that just seems a fool's errand to me.
** Edited by VT ChemE 1986 at 8/7/2025, 2:43:54 PM
(In response to this post by Techsupport)
11mo
...but it depends what you mean by "keeping the faith".
I also, pretty much watch VT football also because I'm an alum....but that's pretty much always been the case for most VT fans. Of the.. lets call them "top 30 fan bases", I'd wager the VT fanbase would contend for the greatest alum over non-alum disparity.
I have no faith that VT will ever win a national championship. No, I don't think that will ever happen. If 15 years ago, the goalpost was 65 yards away, its 165 yards now. But I was hooked at my first game in 1991, VT vs JMU (pizza box frisbee game). We were a largely unknown independent, Kinzer's kick was the football highlight of the previous 120 years, close to zero TV coverage, no post season or top 25 expectations....AND IT WAS PURE JOY.
When my son left to join the military, it hit home that NONE of this sports stuff really matters AT ALL, regardless of the outcomes. No, I am not nearly as tuned in as I used to be because of the programs descent into irrelevancy, coupled with demoralizing NIL/Portal realities. I can get pretty negative myself sometimes about VT football, but, unfailingly, my blood still gets up a bit when the orange and maroon kick off because there's always that chance something cool will happen.
(In response to this post by VT ChemE 1986)
12mo
Vandy got some very expensive lawyers to get their QB another year, so im my mind, they dont have anyone behind him.
Most of they guys they have picked up were guys down the depth chart.
Im not saying they cant beat us, but if we had been better conditioned last year, we would have won imo
(In response to this post by MKD)
12mo
(In response to this post by MKD)
12mo
some reason we don't get a big home field advantage as much as we used to or that we should.
(In response to this post by MKD)
12mo
We might not win a game in the early season, but the coordinators are going to make a difference -- unless Pry starts prying too much.
** Edited by likehokies at 8/6/2025, 9:30:17 AM
(In response to this post by MKD)
12mo
And if anything we have learned in the College FB game is that anything can happen in game one.
The playing field is level and since this on a neutral field should make this a game feel like a preseason bowl game.
I'm predicting a Hokie win followed by second home game win.
Go Hokies
(In response to this post by likehokies)
12mo
to start fast, play fast, come out firing on all cylinders or it will become a slog both physically and mainly mentally. The losing is a disease sets in and ....Put it this way, I do not think a Pry led team and the players we have can pull a 1995 season from the 0-2 start hat. Ferg, Moore, Siefkis, Monty BETTER be as advertised or the pitchforks will be out very early. MUST win the home games at Lane, just gotta. Winning the games at home almost assuredly gets us to 7 wins which for Pry would be like winning a conference champ almost LOL
(In response to this post by likehokies)
12mo
We come out fast and punch our opponents in the mouth, gain some momentum and confidence, and play like that mistake free for four quarters. Teams might be better and better by a lot to beat us. I haven't looked at our opponents to know what they have. Let the chips fall where they may, but no one beats us because we beat ourselves. That was so last year.
(In response to this post by 91HokieBob)
12mo
acting prepared. Team needs to be prepared which is both coaches AND on players to practice well, game film study, know assignments, keys, etc... But overall, it's year 4 and there's no more room for 'well he/Pry is growing into the job, he's a new head coach, blah blah.' NO, it's GO TIME. Get ready, plan, prepare, execute.
(In response to this post by likehokies)
12mo
Current win probability is .74 for South Carolina. So unless you don’t buy predictive analytics or you think Vandy has a 100% chance of beating VT, 75% is too high.
I’d say there is a 41% chance VT is 0-2. That assumes a .26 win probability against USC and I’m estimating a .45 win probability against Vandy.
(In response to this post by Fore_Hokies)
12mo
(In response to this post by MKD)
12mo
(In response to this post by BG Hokie)
12mo
is the only time I've been wrong on the internet though, meanwhile you always get p0wn3d over on the basketball board so enjoy this victory. I'm going to slink away in shame now.
(In response to this post by Pride_and_Joy)
I
I85Hokie
12mo
If that happens, I say we pull a Dabo Swinney and fire the AD and entire coaching staff except for Matt Moore.
(In response to this post by MKD)
V
VPI_1998
12mo
(In response to this post by I85Hokie)
12mo
exponentially worse than it was for Fu. Now MAYBEEEEE if the hypothetical 3 losses were razor close and we were competitive and NO bonehead coach calls? Maybe they both survive, but
(In response to this post by VPI_1998)
11mo
and enough people out there may now believe that any P2 school should beat a non-P2 school 75% of the time. Would enough fans buy an ACC team losing any game to a Sun Belt team given the perception of both conferences?
Given my confidence in Babcock to right the football ship is low, I am half heartedly expecting Babcock to give Pry a contract extension (as a vote of confidence) even if VT starts 0-2. The timing may even be "right" particularly if the team loses both games by the slimmest of margins and the fans are given a glimmer of hope that the right changes were made during the offseason. Now of course all of that glimmer will be gone in a flash if VT were to lay an egg against ODU. You might even say that Babcock's tenure as AD at VT has been one where he can't help but to find a way to shoot himself in the foot when it comes to the football program. So why should fans expect his handling of that situation to be any different?
(In response to this post by 91HokieBob)
12mo
Pry would be 16-23 overall and would have one of the worst football coaching records in VT history
(In response to this post by MKD)
12mo
I'd give us a better chance against Vandy if it was our first game, because they would have no idea what to expect, however with USC-E on deck first, That should be enough film for Vandy to prepare for us. Jerry Kill is somewhat of a quirky weirdo, but when it comes to X's and O's I don't think he is scared of going up against Siefke's defense, and Pavia is just a warrior.
(In response to this post by MKD)
12mo
VT football team HAS to WIN its games at home in Lane. It's the best way to get out of this mediocre funk. Even if we weren't in a malaise, just gotta win the home games.
(In response to this post by TekkNerd)
12mo
wants to play in a bowl game. I agree with you that if the program wants to change how it is trending, then winning games at home is a great place to start. If South Carolina ends up winning the game, then hopefully the loss doesn't carry over into the Vandy game similar to what fans saw happen in the JMU game after the loss to Boise State.
(In response to this post by 91HokieBob)
12mo
(In response to this post by 91HokieBob)
12mo
step up and RBs can produce. Don’t see us beating USCe as they just have more proven talent IMPHO and use to playing SEC level talent. If we lose both it will not be good for the rear end of one Coach Brent Pry. I like him but nice guys don’t always get it done and it’s time to put up or shut up. No way we should be this bad in a conference like the ACC.
(In response to this post by MKD)
12mo
we lose both, IMHO.
(In response to this post by MKD)
12mo
(In response to this post by MKD)
12mo
(In response to this post by George Baylor)
E
EDGEMAN
12mo
Frankly no idea with these new coordinators and coaches.
(In response to this post by MKD)
12mo
don’t have LBs who can contain. Our wins in those games are 0 and 50%, respectively.
(In response to this post by MKD)
12mo
Go 0-2 and the seat gets toasty for Pry. Have a losing record at the end of 2025 and the moving truck might be in front of the Pry residence. He better hope his new coordinators find success very early.
Year 3 should have been Pry’s breakout year with the team he had but we limped along to a 6-7 record and bowl loss.
(In response to this post by MKD)
12mo
Pry and company are history because this is "another" year of his job on the line. But it's getting old every year ......
(In response to this post by MKD)
12mo
So less than 30% we lose both.
(In response to this post by MKD)
V
VPI_1998
12mo
haven't seen. If this was last year's staff I would say probability VT loses both is 80%. Now, I say less than 50%. The one advantage VT has in the SC game is the unknown and element of surprise - let's hope the coaches take FULL advantage. If they don't, we all know where this is going.
** Edited by VPI_1998 at 8/6/2025, 6:55:34 AM
(In response to this post by Seikoh_04)
12mo
I can see Tech hanging with South Carolina for a half and then slipping. They are saying this may be a better Vandy team than last year so that will also be a difficult game....
(In response to this post by MKD)
12mo
They beat VT and Bama, the only two games I watched them play, and they looked VERY good in both games.
But they lost to 3-9 Georgia State and only went 7-6 overall. So, not so great.
But of their six losses, only two were by double digits, to South Carolina (28-7) and Tennessee (36-23), who combined to go 19-7. So, very competitive in almost every one of their games, including the losses.
(In response to this post by ancient alien 2018)
12mo
6-6 to 2-10 are not a usual range for most clubs,
(In response to this post by Will Stewart)
12mo
scores are like. They were a running, ball control type team which lends itself to closer games. The better teams could have worn them out with depth. I think Vandy is a situation that proves how important an efficient QB is to your whole team. Converting 3rd downs and moving the ball is the key to grinding out wins. Some teams still do it on the ground, even VT with Drones. Go back and watch the bowl game against undermanned Tulane....we needed some first downs in that game or else it could have been a different score.
(In response to this post by Will Stewart)
12mo
https://www.warrennolan.com/fcs/2025/team-predict-schedul...
** Edited by ancient alien 2018 at 8/5/2025, 9:02:00 PM
(In response to this post by MaryWashGrad)
12mo
Vanderbilt football is projected to be improved in 2025, potentially their best team in a decade, but still facing a challenging SEC schedule. Several sports publications and podcasts predict a win total around 4.5-5 wins, with some suggesting a push for a winning record with key upsets. The team returns key players, including quarterback Diego Pavia, and has improved in the transfer portal, but will need to overcome a tough SEC slate.
Here's a more detailed breakdown:
Offense:
Diego Pavia:
Returns as quarterback after a legal victory that allowed him to bypass the NCAA's eligibility clock.
Offensive Line:
Improved with the addition of four new starters via the transfer portal, but still projected as a bottom-tier SEC unit.
Eli Stowers:
Returns as a top weapon at tight end.
Other Receivers:
Junior Sherrill is solid, and former New Mexico State receiver Trent Hudson is expected to contribute.
Running Backs:
Sedrick Alexander leads the backfield, which needs to improve its run blocking.
Defense:
Defensive Coordinator Change: Clark Lea relinquishes coordinator duties, promoting Steve Gregory.
Defensive Line: Deep and experienced, with a focus on run stopping.
Linebackers: Nick Rinaldi and Bryce Cowan are key third-down options.
Cornerbacks: Deepest in years.
Safeties: Two veteran starters need to be replaced.
Schedule and Expectations:
Challenging SEC Slate:
Vanderbilt faces tough opponents, including potential upsets against Auburn and Kentucky at home.
Bowl Game Hopes:
The team aims for consecutive bowl games, a feat not achieved since 2012-2013.
Home Games:
Georgia State, Charleston Southern, Utah State, Auburn, Kentucky, Missouri, and LSU are home games.
Away Games:
Virginia Tech, Alabama, and Kentucky.
Key to Success:
Improved third-down defense and consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
** Edited by MaryWashGrad at 8/5/2025, 10:18:48 PM
(In response to this post by ancient alien 2018)
