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PadrosWindup

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PadrosWindup
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Member since: June 16, 2003
Last post: 04/30/2022 06:48 AM ET
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Power 5 college sports are a resource war, not a morality play

Posting History (190)

Padro finished eligibility in 1981, Bruce in 1985

Saw Padro my freshman year. He was a DT. To get the crowd cheering for an upcoming play, he would windmill his arm- basically 25 years before The Key Play took off. About as colorful thing as a player could get away with under Bill Dooley. Thus, Padros Windup I went for a highly IYKYK username. Have done this explanation several times over the years. Back in the early 80s, VT typically drew 30k to 40k, with sellouts only for WVU or UVA. In bad weather, maybe 15 to 20k showed up to Lane. Capacity in those days was 52k to 55k , depending on temporary bleachers in the NEZ and SEZ. Fans those days debated if the 1979? East Side expansion to add the 4 letter and 5 letter rows was worthwhile, as those rows were only filled once or twice a season. Overall Capacity of permanent seats increased from 35k to 50k with the East Side expansion.

Nebraska loses NIL arbitration, CSC trying to assert itself

A lot of NIL has been promised. We are about to find out what happens when it is not approved. Maybe the salary cap can hold?

To make it worthwhile, the host country will need to pay for everything

And they will - this isn't the Shreveport Bowl committee pinching pennies while they pinch coeds. The host country will need to come up with some attendees - Local US military bases? US Ex pats? All this for some sports washing?

How long is the flight from Dulles to KSA? 15 hours?

This game will be logistical nightmare for the teams involved. Visa/Passports Practice facilities Wicked Jet Lag. All so a couple 7-5 teams can play another game, minus their portalled ex teammates. Makes December in Shreveport sound appealing

So it begins - Holiday Bowl can't find a broadcast partner

No broadcast partner, no money for bowl game, then bowl game shuts down. Holiday Bowl will likely need to take a haircut to even exist. Networks saving up cash for new NFL deal. Nobody knows if mid-tier bowls will even exist in 3 years, with possibility of expanded playoffs. Lot's of stuff in the air for college football.

I went with 20 since that is the EPL number. Maroon Baboons scheduling

Complaint don't get resolved in any realignment scenarios. Complaining is as much as part of college football Fandom as tailgating. Yes you are right, any college football super league would have 32 to 48 teams. That realignment does NOT solve unbalanced schedules. There may be balanced schedules within a region/conference, but there won't be balanced schedules across college football, unless you go to 15 to 25 games per year. There never was schedule balance across college football. Fans of various conferences (cough SEC cough) always complained that their schools played a tougher schedule than anyone else and took losses that others with weaker schedules did not. We don't like the polls and playoff committees,because they are subjective. Division winners plus wild card teams defined by objective criteria may feel better. Even with that, there will always be fans of the 1st team out complaining that the last team in don't deserve it. It's what college football fans do - It's an ingrained part of the Fandom. In the NFL, the Patriots played a 4th place schedule this year. They won the games on the schedule, but their SOS was lower. They got a favorable bracket to the Super Bowl, with no Ravens or Chiefs due to in season injuries, Bills knocked out before playing the Pats, and the Broncos losing their QB the previous game. It feels better than playoff committees choosing teams from the players, but don't think that it is balanced.

Relegation is an anachronism. No new leagues will sign on to it.

Financial risk just too high. The big Six clubs want to eliminate the relegation risk, and have guaranteed income streams, like we see in American sports. The EPL agreed to relegation in exchange for major financial autonomy when they started in 1992. Yes, it is a huge tradition beloved by fans in English football, but it does prevent the big name clubs from breaking away, joining with other high revenue European clubs and maximizing revenue. To me, the closest comparison in college sports is March Madness-It prevents the highest football revenue schools from gathering together and maximizing their own revenue. Too much fan blowback at this point, so they haven't had the cajones to take the leap. YET. The Athletic had a recent article on the impact on Tottenham if they relegate. From below, their TV revenue share would drop from almost GBP100 million per year (I assumed the value divided by 5 years, then divided by 20 teams to keep the math simple )to less than GBP10 million. The jersey sponsor, AIA, would also likely decrease it's deal by 90%, due to lower visibility in a lower league. Wealthy competitors would scavenge the Hotspur roster. Applying this to college sports, Think Wisconsin or Nebraska getting relegated from the BIg 10 to The American, or worse the MAC, and you see why relegation will be a nonstarter in any future college realignment.

Reducing to 20 teams leaves out VT

Essentially, 2/3 of the current P4 would be permanently relegated to the next tier down. Premier league plays a 38 game league schedule, 20 teams playing each other home and home. Teams can also play unlimited 'friendlies' and invitational championships that also help drive revenue, especially for the Big Six clubs. The Big Six (Man U, Man City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham) are pushing for imbalanced TV revenue sharing, much like FSU and Clemson got from the ACC. The EPL Big Six owners do NOT believe in the NFL equal revenue sharing model. They believe they drive the revenue in global EPL TV contracts, so they should benefit the most. Their next step is a Super League withe top teams from other European National Leagues (Bayern Munich, FC Barecelona, International Milan). Same as we have heard proposed in college football. The EPL Big Six are as eager to stop subsidizing Everton and Newcastle as USC and Oregon were of subsidizing Washington State and Cal. Trashing long time rivalries is easy when the path to championships means having the most money to outbid other teams for the best players. It us a universal sentiment.

Just finished reading The Club,about the business of the Premier League

Supposedly this Greg Sankey's #1 book. Parallels between the EPL and college sports are amazing. Details the history of the EPL from its founding in 1992,carving itself out from the English Football Association (Prince of Wales is the honorary chairman). Like the NCAA, it governs all level of competition. The 5 wealthiest clubs got sick of abiding by rules set up to benefit small, near 0 budget clubs, much like the Power Conferences vs Division 3 in the NCAA. NCAA Player movement has evolved to match the EPL. Everyone is a free agent at the end of their contract. Transfer windows exist, but blatant 365 say a year tampering is common business, and the only way for the richest clubs to compete fit championships. The wealthiest clubs have sugar daddy owners/boosters who cared much less on financial ROI, than lifting trophies. They can piss away as much money as possible, as long as their team wins I'll add more as I get a chance.

Most importantly, 21st century toilets

Peeing in a trough might seem quaint, but for the over 40 crowd, modern, clean, Buccees grade bathrooms are a must when paying over $70 per ticket.

Learfield sends email to colleges who media have their media rights with

Them - Another Ross Dellinger scoop. Has a lot to do with the NIL guarantees coming out that are beyond the House agreement levels. "In the email, Learfield says language in the interest letters are rooted in “reasonable efforts” to secure sponsorships for athletes. While letters may include a financial “target,” it's not a guarantee, and the organization will not advance NIL dollars before deals are executed." "Learfield says in the email that it is capping the amount of athlete NIL marketing funds at 20% of a school’s total sponsorship business/budget to assure deals are legitimate. A4 school sponsorship budgets can range widely - from $30M+ to less than $10M annually." Basically, schools are using media rights money as part of NIL that is promised to athletes. BUT, the promises to the athletes have not yet been reviewed/approved by the CSC. As we all know, the CSC has been a fairly toothless rubber stamp so far - maybe they are feeling their oats and will try to make a stand.

You are SO CLOSE to the right answer

Bowl games are TV shows first and foremost. They are great TV inventory around Christmas-especially when there are teams with no rooting interest- specifically G5 teams. There is a game every day-maybe 2. Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday- all the typically non Football days. So there is a game always on, and it doesn't matter who is playing. What's better for avoiding the relatives than a TV football game with evenly matched MAC and Sunbelt teams, sloppily playing a game that goes down to the wire?? These are not rewards for successful seasons (unless 7 wins is the most wins you'd team has had in years) nor are they displays of football excellence. They are TV inventory filler for the holiday season. They are too valuable there to move anywhere else on the calendar. Enjoy them for what they are. Don't make them anymore than what they are. ** Edited by PadrosWindup at 12/8/2025, 7:55:27 PM

IMO, the big one will be transfer limitations

Fans don't seem to particularly mind th oay. They really dislike the constant transferring in search of a better playing situation. If the P2 can limit transfers, then the stronger schools can rebuild their depth, with 5 stars backing up 5 stars. Now, those 4/5 stars stuck in the depth chart at a big SEC school can go find playing time at a school slightly lower on the P4 pecking order.

SCORE act gets pulled from House of Reps floor vote

No NCAA anti trust exemption No NIL hard cap No transfer restrictions At least, not for now.

Fox writes about 24 team playoff to help B1G.

Remember the Fox is part owner of B1GN. 24 team playoff is Petitti's idea as a way to get Fox more CFB inventory, drive more media $$ to B1G.

Like a normal business,VTAD is in the marketplace or labor, and bids

Against other firms. Supply and demand for labor set the price. There are about 65 'firms' bidding on college football head coaches. There are less than 60 'good' head coaches. So bidding wars ensue. You want a 'good' head coach, gotta bid against other schools. You think Dan Mullen won't get 3 ir 4 offers this fall? Why would he accept the offer you think VT should propose, when other schools offer buyouts/large salaries/staff control?

CFE also went through the Super League idea

Staples/Godfrey/Dellenger ended up there after Ross explained the SCORE act currently in Congress, and the 1961 Broadcasting act, which the Texas Tech billionaire is talking about on his commercials. They all believe Bama and Ohio State have way more in common with each other than with South Carolina, Indiana, Minnesota, Mississippi State or Virginia Tech, and will realize they can make more money in the same league. Ross also believes the SEC and B1G will move towards a revenue bonus system, similar to the ACC, to appease their power brands. Thus could be a stop gap to push the Super League out a few years.

This man spent 7 years in college, and became a US Senator

And married Mandy Pepperidge. ** Edited by PadrosWindup at 9/3/2025, 11:52:47 AM ** Edited by PadrosWindup at 9/3/2025, 11:54:12 AM

Today I learned: The B1G doesn't own it's media rights -the BTN does

And the Big Ten Network is 61% owned by Fox. Fox has only one post season game- the Holiday Bowl- and wants more. So the B1G needs a reason for a post season tournament. Expanding the CFP to 16 and with 4 slots guarantee to the B1G gives the B1G a reason for the play in tournament, which gives Fox more (profitable??) post season college football. Buried in the Stewart Mandel article linked below

From a straight sports point if view, multi year contracts are a double

Edge sword. Ask any NFL/MLB/NBA fan. It's great when your team has multi year control of a good to great performing player. It stinks when the player doesn't perform due to injuries or lack of talent. Traditionally, 1/4 of freshman recruits wash out as non performers. Imagine Austin Clark on a multi year contract. Having no collective bargaining, colleges/collectives can structure the contract where they (not the player) have annual options to renew for the next year. That being said it is in the player's interest to front load the mo ey as much as possible. Contracts may also be a way to get transfer fees if a,player ransfers"up" through an exit fee that is paid by the new college's collectives. Lots of directions this can go. ** Edited by PadrosWindup at 7/23/2025, 12:58:36 PM

Collectives are legit businesses!! Play for pay is here to stay!!

Athletic article The CSC/P5/schools blinked ** Edited by PadrosWindup at 7/22/2025, 10:19:48 PM

This is basically the B1G Tony proposal

Tony Petitti has pushed the guaranteed slots model, in order to set up more play-in games on Championship weekend for the Big 10. So one ACC coach is in favor. Personally, I say with 5 conf Champs + 7 or 11 at largest. CFB is in danger if oversaturating. They need to limit supply in order to drive up interest in the games shown.

Joint statement from pro sports unions urging Congress to reject

anti-trust protection for college sports ** Edited by PadrosWindup at 7/14/2025, 8:04:07 PM

State of Tennessee passes law that supercedes the House settlement.

Factoid buried in Mandel's Mailbag response to question on Texas Tech OL and NIL payments

SIR Latest from Ross Dellenger-collective bargaining is phrase of thexday

UT AD Danny White is PowerPointing about how to get there. Most interviewed for the article agree it is the end point, but can't handle the steps to get there.

I have no problem with pay to play

It doesn't break my heart if athletes don't bleed orange and maroon the way I do. 90% of general population students don't either. College football has to stop tying itself in knots trying to appease head coaches and message board geniuses.

The $600 NIL deal review threshold is an underrated level of stupid in the

Settlement. Gonna be way too small deals getting hung up. Lineman Jimbo Beefcake gets a free meal every week at the local BBQ joint every week of the school year. $25 per meal x 25 weeks= $625. Review is required. Pointless. Don't tell me that since Jimbo gets a distribution payment that he doesn't need the free meal. Tell a 300 lb 20 yo that he can't have free food. Review threshold shouldn't be less than 10k. Likely closer $25k. If Shelor wants to comp a 1 year pickup truck lease to Jimbo, let them do it. Why review?

Athletic article - return of the bagman

Nobody has confidence that the Deloitte clearinghouse will control NIL. Estimates are that 70 % of last year's deals would be rejected by the clearinghouse. Boosters will still want pay players bug bucks to come to their schools, Deloitte be damned. So the bagman returns. ** Edited by PadrosWindup at 6/11/2025, 7:17:01 AM

P2 won't go to 20. Only one school available that will bring the existing

Members more revenue. At this point, that school is firmly committed to being an independent. Way more sand has to shift for Notre Dame to join a conference. ** Edited by PadrosWindup at 6/7/2025, 12:37:41 PM

Straight copy pasta from Dellinger story

"A majority of the SEC’s coaches did not support the multiple automatic-qualifier playoff structure that had gained momentum with a large group of their administrators. A ninth conference game? No thanks, plenty of coaches said. A season-ending, inner-conference play-in game? No way, some of them told ADs." Coaches don't want the risk of losing games

SEC coaches don't want 9 conference games or the play in games that

The auto qualifier CFP would have allowed. Remember, 1/2 of the SEC is playing for 6 wins and a trip to the Music City Bowl. Coaches at the league's bottom half schools are just trying to keep their jobs with a winning record. Taking away a cash game vs a G5 and replacing with another game against a better SEC program looks harmful to their job security.

Proposal for which ACC teams get a spot in a 16 team CFP

From TigerNet. Via Message Board Geniuses Not really much dumber that any other proposal ** Edited by PadrosWindup at 5/9/2025, 4:57:58 PM

This us a good situation for Shedeur

Browns are unsettled at QB. He will compete against Dillon Gabriel for 2nd string as the Browns wind down the DeShaun Wztson fiasco. Joe Flacco and Kenny Pickett are on the roster. If Shedeur is all that, he has a path to the job.

AAC is going to require minimum revenue share sounds from its members

AAC members will be required to spend a minimum of $10.7 million over 3 years, or else have their membership reviewed, per the linked article by Ross Dellenger. Another conference tactic to get their bottom feeders to compete harder

So how does the Big XII pay back PE

Big XII gets a cash infusion-do they get one, or multiple? How does PE get paid back? TV revenue? Stadium revenue? Donor revenue? (This would go well) Feels like loan sharking to me. And loan sharks ALWAYS get paid back.

Fans of traditional bottom tier B1G and SEC schools love it.

Think of schools like Illinois, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt and Purdue. Guaranteed 4 picks gives them a much better chance at getting into the CFP than relying on an at large pick. Think about Indiana. They got in by a sliver, riding a weak schedule. Near coin flip between them and Bama. Guaranteed 4 picks puts into black and white whether they get in . Not left to whims of a committee.

Their biggest impediment at this point is ESPN

Ratings weren't as high as they hoped. Running out of time slots. General football fatigue on weekends that double up with NFL playoffs. And if you are waiting for the NFL to clear TV slots to help college football......

Yeah I can see the Message Board Geniuses going nuts if the build isnt

Exactly what they saw online 2 years ago. Not that college football fans ever obsess about minor asthetics.

Good video from WSJ on recent Superdome renovation and how the design

maximizes revenue. The point is not longer to maximize revenues with more seats, but maximize revenue by making each seat more valuable. Also posted on the subscriber board.