So where is all this headed eventually?
It started when conferences were able to negotiate separate TV deals relative to a number of competing broadcast options. Conferences morphed and grew. TV competition focused on fewer players who could package together the biggest games.
Now we’re essentially left with the SEC, the B1G and everyone else trying to hang onto increasingly less desirable alternatives. However, what happens at that point? Will the networks be happy showing Purdue, Northwestern, Rutgers, Vandy, Mississippi State, Kentucky, etc. getting crushed? Will the heavy hitter schools be fine sharing revenue equally with their conference brethren if it’s not as much as another blue blood is making?
It seems like an implosion is coming - tiered payouts or breakaway groups of schools. Would we want to be party to that?
45 Replies
3y
And cast off the lessers.
We are a lesser.
(In response to this post by Marooned)
3y
they'd come riding in on their golden horse to save the constituents of Good ol State U and put an end to that real quick. Not enough money available to pay them all off in that scenario.
(In response to this post by Gator Hokie)
W
WarHog38
3y
With the old Southern Conference & WAC. Those big conference form groups of schools within that leads to them splintering away with time. The SEC having old Big 8 & SWC schools is set for that. How much will adding a bunch of old ACC schools help with that? You think USC & UCLA with their California Dreaming heritage are ever going to fit with the rust belt states of the B1G? FSU going to the B1G would be almost funny.
(In response to this post by Marooned)
3y
a fading sizzle to conferences with financial packages they can't sustain in the long haul because viewers will get bored and leave. I foresee a lawyer's bonanza by 2030 with all the defunct contracts shelled out of the mainstream networks and thousands of hours of lawsuit discovery paid out by conferences.
** Edited by Maroon Unit at 8/2/2023, 1:53:24 PM
(In response to this post by Marooned)
I've already lost interest in the P2.
I used to watch college football from 9 am (GameDay) through 1:30 am the next morning (Pac12 After Dark).
Now, I just watch the Hokies and maybe any game outside the P2 that interests me (like the academies, and a few other cool teams that I like).
I am tired of the money powers trashing traditional rivalries and conferences.
(In response to this post by Maroon Unit)
I am certain of only one thing...
This whole thing will be screwed up.
There's an old saying in trading, the most profitable trade is the one you never make. That's because sitting on your hands most of the time is the best strategy. You have industry full of giant egos unwilling to sit on their hands. They will destroy the sport, and by that I mean less interest, less revenue, less excitement.
(In response to this post by Marooned)
3y
is sit tight, collect your adequate payouts and let the thing blow up around you, then figure out how to move toward a more known future. In addition to unsustainable economics is the now almost guaranteed involvement of congress to screw this pooch beyond anything even the idiots at the networks could figure out.
(In response to this post by MrBayAreaHokie)
No one in power is looking out for the best interest of the sport. No one.
Let's say that P2 each go to 20 teams. There will be plenty of schools with Top 40 football programs and athletic programs left out in the cold. The only way to "move up" is to get the attention of TV execs, conference commissioners and other people's college presidents. Yeah. This won't end well
(In response to this post by MrBayAreaHokie)
3y
the NCAA because it is being pushed out, schools with huge capital debts to pay off with lost revenue, big time donors like Pickens who is looking at owning a college football program that is no longer relevant, Phil Knight if Oregon isn't picked up...the list goes on.
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
I think about programs that just did stadium renovation projects recently.
Like Oregon State. And Call did one pretty recently that basically earthquake proofed the joint.
(In response to this post by Vienna_Hokie)
3y
TV as a whole down to 3 platforms (per article linked here yesterday). CFB is on one of them. Conference realignment quelled via some form of reasonable but unequal revenue sharing based on subscriptions (e.g., designate your favorite team when you subscribe or pick all). Get back to regional conferences, big boys get their rightful share, non big boys still available to compete and not pushed to some minor league.
(In response to this post by Marooned)
3y
My question is how long will it take before the P2 break up due to irreconcilable differences and we go back to a more regional look.
(In response to this post by Marooned)
I tend to agree. It seems the natural structure of US pro leagues. NFC AFC
Eastern Conf, Western Conf etc. Two 24-28 team leagues in pods with playoffs feels like the end game. Some current P5s will be left out I suspect.
(In response to this post by Seikoh_04)
3y
AL, GA, OSU, McChicken, ND then everyone else. Those 5 are the schools that have to be forced out of the playoff, not play their way into it.
Everyone complains that all the money going to the SEC and the BIG is making it unfair to everyone else. If that were true, then wouldn't the rest of those conferences be kicking everyone else around? The money disparity is a lot about the fact that the 4 schools that matter that are in conferences, are in those conferences and that drives eyeballs, which drives revenue.
(In response to this post by vtka93)
V
vtka93
2y
but very true. That is the thing that gets lost in all this. Just getting more money isn't going to make purdue compete year in and year out with OSU michigan, because they are getting the same increase in money and are already a big name. So are we to assume a bunch of schools are just cool with getting a load of money and never actually caring to compete?
(In response to this post by Vienna_Hokie)
2y
they are part of the discussion. Some of the next group can be in the conversation to start the season, but are not in by default until they lose their way out.
Others in that list..
Pedo State, Miami, Free Shoes, Clemson, Texas, OK, USC
Others that can edge their way into the next group, but takes a few more weeks of being undefeated:
Auburn, Tenn, Wisconsin, OK State, UNCheat, aTm, FL
Everyone else has to be 10-0 to be in the discussion and will have to be 12-0 and win their conference to get a playoff spot.
(In response to this post by vtka93)
3y
The whole P2 is about media rights, you're right, the idea of teams in Southern California having similar needs as teams in the upper midwest is problematic. Even from a standpoint of sports they compete in or focus on. Baseball is played in the BIG, but no one gives a crap about it and they are never going to matter because unless a kid just doesn't want to move away, the best talent is never going to chose to play in a place where the majority of the season it's below 50deg. Once the newness wears off, that is going to be a problem.
Operating as regional "conferences" inside a larger "corporate" media framework, has huge value in generating interest through rivalries which is what drives college sports.
(In response to this post by Seikoh_04)
3y
NBA model for basketball and regional model for all other non-rev sports. This would work best if the P2 goes big. It can't stop at 16-18. It needs to be 24+ to provide flexibility across different sports.
- NFL has two conferences with internal rivalries and a path to super bowl, 4 divisions for annual rivalries within each conference, and out of conference games between AFC and NFC for schedule variety.
- NBA has similar structure but due to more games also has series to minimize travel impacts (and reduce short one-game road trips). So the equivalent in college would be a trip for MD to play out west to play 2-3 games within a few days then get rest back home.
- And for all other sports, keep it close by as much as possible except for limited big trip travel a couple times a season as needed (if that is even possible). But the bigger the conference, the easier it becomes to focus travel on more regional options.
(In response to this post by Vienna_Hokie)
3y
But then is the money the same? Let's say VT ends up in the SEC along with other ACC teams. The ACC teams would be an eastern pod. But those teams were never worth money in the ACC so why are they worth money in the larger network?
(In response to this post by Vienna_Hokie)
T
Truthahn
3y
The four CFP byes will keep two more conferences relevant compared to everyone else, the ACC and B12, obviously. Our championship games will be play-in games, essentially, to the CFP final eight.
Eventually, that sixth conference championship slot will be reset to five, and the G5 + PAC will become the G6.
I think the SEC and to a lesser extent, the B1G, will be fine with that.
I doubt we will ever get raided such that we fall below the PAC, and into the G6, especially if the big raid happens in 2036.
** Edited by Truthahn at 8/2/2023, 11:45:11 AM
(In response to this post by Seikoh_04)
I doubt they stay with 4 conference champ byes after 2026.
(In response to this post by Truthahn)
3y
end up with 20-25 schools each. Truly NFL-Lite.
(In response to this post by Marooned)
H
HouClone
3y
of college football. Even teams in the P2 conferences will probably get bored playing teams with little history or far away.
(In response to this post by reestuart)
The AFC- NFC of CFB always thought we were heading there
(In response to this post by reestuart)
3y
Think about the number of large State U's that are likely to be left out in the current couple at a time, scenario. Congress critters will not stand for their good ol' U not being in the big time anymore and that will get them involved and force a solution on them that keeps all the current P5 schools in the "big time".
(In response to this post by reestuart)
3y
hurt a soul, much less entire athletic departments. I'm not advocating that they do get involved, but this is far more serious than allowing or not allowing athletes to make money.
(In response to this post by Vienna_Hokie)
3y
Start with the part that people will accept and are angry about (equalizing the rules to take the advantage away from certain states/schools). Now you're in the door, well, we still don't have equality because some schools have more resources than others, well that's because these conferences have better media deals, we need to fix that so that everyone has the same....and their off...
(In response to this post by reestuart)
3y
“Gee, thanks for screwing over all but 45-50 schools, including mine. I’m gonna pop a cold one and watch this week’s ersatz Rose Bowl.” College football isn’t the NFL, and I think the SEC and Big 10 (in particular) are gonna find that out.
I know I’m not going to watch any Big 10 games this fall, save one.
(In response to this post by reestuart)
V
VPI_1998
3y
about 90% of the fans out there and we will get MLNFL
(In response to this post by mancunian)
maybe 2? Purdue and Rutgers? but agree that the vast majority of
Americans don't tune into any games. Big picture, I would state that most fans/alumni only care about one or two schools they follow or went there. If I have something better to do, I am not going to tune into UGA-FL, or other rivalry or games just because it is in the SEC or BIG conference
(In response to this post by mancunian)
3y
and still watch a few. But a lot of that was to see how we might match up against one of those teams - maybe for a bowl or even an OOC the next year - or even how we did against a common opponent.
I'll always be interested in VT sports and watch/go to them to some degree; and I'll likely watch the CFB playoffs (last four teams anyway) just because, like the super bowl - but my "want to" to follow CFB as a whole is dwindling and VT not having a stake - even if just a tiny chance - in the CFB world is/would be the final nail. Not going to follow the major games if my team at 12-0 won't make the playoff anyway - I'll just watch my team and do other things when "big games" are on.
(In response to this post by anotherdamnyankeehokie)
3y
ACC, Big 12, PAC 12 and all other conferences get kneecapped then the fans outside the power 2 will just turn naturally to their product, like OSU/Michigan is the NFC Championship game or something. Everyone will just accept homogenization, in the Big 10's view.
I tried explaining to an OSU fan that outside of the midwest, no one REALLY cares about OSU/Michigan. People might watch it in other parts of the country but if it went away nobody would get that exercised.
(In response to this post by RTFC)
3y
I don't know if people care, but they watch. That won't ever change.
(In response to this post by mancunian)
3y
Outside of the Big 10 footprint, anyone?
The Big 10’s assuming they can nationalize a sport whose appeal is largely, overwhelmingly regional. We’ll see if it works.
(In response to this post by reestuart)
3y
And even if it is only being watched regionally with those numbers, do the providers care? Ohio State & Maryland got over 6.5M viewers last year. Ohio State-Northwestern outdrew Clemson-ND by about 1.5M. Regional or not, that's enormous. And why would it disappear?
** Edited by reestuart at 8/2/2023, 2:58:40 PM
** Edited by reestuart at 8/2/2023, 2:59:04 PM
** Edited by reestuart at 8/2/2023, 2:59:55 PM
(In response to this post by mancunian)
3y
I’m saying an NFL model won’t work in college football, and the Big 10 in particular is overestimated it’s appeal.
(In response to this post by reestuart)
3y
with that assumption. The Big Ten schools have over 800K students collectively. That's just students. No other conference comes close. Not to mention alumni and the huge states they reside in or are from.
(In response to this post by mancunian)
3y
it will be watched. Eliminating about half the teams probably wouldn't do a thing to change that.
That said, I have zero interest in an expanded playoff. I've had little interest in the current version. More is less, IMO.
** Edited by reestuart at 8/2/2023, 9:50:53 AM
(In response to this post by mancunian)
3y
the NFL was first to go away when it got all political and over the last couple years I have cut college FB down to maybe 5 games a year and only because it's too cold or raining to play golf or do something outside.
Part of what is forgotten in this equation is that college football interest is ground up. Yes, there are people that will watch it, because and have no ties to a school or conference, but the mass that is needed to generate the money are people that have interest in a school, that interest creates interest in a conference, which creates interest nationally. A lot of it because when you're watching your school, the promos for others grab your interest. If you don't care about your school's game anymore (which being relegated to second or third class will do that to many) that chain never starts.
(In response to this post by reestuart)
V
VPI_1998
3y
I had no interest in any football before attending VT, then I started watching CFB just because I went to a school with a program on the rise. That type of interest is going to go away for a huge majority of programs with Bama, UGA, OSU and a few other sucking all the oxygen out of the sport. No thanks, or maybe just getting old.
(In response to this post by Vienna_Hokie)
3y
but there's no guarantee. The big games still get big numbers. I do wonder if at some point people get tired of the charade that this is an amateur sport. The money involved and spent (wasted) is obscene.
I'm also the opposite in I'm watching a whole lot more NFL than college these days. If they started showing games on Saturdays, I doubt I'd ever watch another college game.
(In response to this post by Vienna_Hokie)
3y
Maybe it's because I am older, have found other interests? Or, maybe it's because I am still in 3 fantasy leagues, all of which keep friendships together (over very long distances).
When I am watching college sports, I watch way more non rev and women's.
My loyalty, ultimately, is to VT. Although I find it somewhat sad the college football of old is no longer
(In response to this post by reestuart)