Sooooo...I get the sense things might be coming to a head
what's the worst case scenario for VT at this point?
60 Replies
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WarHog38
2y
Listening to Flugaur and simply connecting the dots. The UNC internal network of administrators are somewhat at war with each other. In particular factions that support the ACC or moves to either the SEC or B1G. That war at UNC has been going on a couple of years and presently the faction that favors the SEC move appears to be winning out. Mostly due to the present UNC Chancellor and many of the Trustees being pro SEC. However as Flugaur points out, all these SEC advantages could change if things just are put on hold several years. What I have seen on all this over the years. I think Flugaur is exactly right about constant change in these administrator's both in personnel & mentality.
Bubba Cunningham who is the UNC AD, is strongly ACC. Flugaur is implying that the UNC Trustees have orchestrated an audit of the UNC athletic department to paint Cunningham as a poor administrator. Flugaur is also relating a closed meeting is taking place on Thursday among the UNC Board of Trustees. Flugaur says he has also heard that legal experts will be at that Thursday meeting to discuss something? Flugaur also says that a lawsuit by UNC against the ACC would be a tipping point against the ACC.
I have heard Flugaur say the UNC whales are working on the North Carolina Board of Governors seeking approval to file that lawsuit. Flugaur does use his own wordings to reach conclusions. A person has to watch him repeatedly to really read him.
(In response to this post by mancunian)
2y
I’ve just caught parts of it. It’s still going on now. His “chalk” for SEC expansion is UNC and Clemson if to 18 and UVa and NC State if to 20. Says Kansas will also be in the conversation. A lot of discussion on the potential pact between Virginia schools. Some callers favor Tech over Hoos.
(In response to this post by WarHog38)
We should be exercising all avenues to get ourselves into the Big Ten under
that scenario in particular. But also in general.
If the B1G is going that far South to get FSU (and Miami), they could use another school or two to bridge the gap. Just like they did with the USC/UCLA. You know they needed a couple more schools to get them some continuity on the West Coast. Ditto in the South. VT well positioned in many ways. Need to sell. Always be closing. Let's go Hokies. It's go time.
BTW, I've always believed that UVa is going where UNC goes.
** Edited by Maroon Baboon at 5/15/2024, 1:29:46 AM
(In response to this post by Millpoint)
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WarHog38
2y
Don't think I have ever made it all the way through watching one. I know he is saying Kansas to the SEC. He does have a track record of predicting USC to B1G & Colorado to Big 12. Nobody had predicted the USC move before him. Flugaur does ALWAYS claim sources. Thanks for the info about his show for today. Haven't heard him talk much about UVA or Tech. I will watch some of it.
(In response to this post by Millpoint)
2y
I listen on double speed and I fast forward until I find the “meat” of the show. Usually after 10-15 minutes into it. If not there I keep advancing. He’s not predicting KU to SEC yet, just saying they are “in the conversation”. I don’t know how the Jayhawks can get out of B12 GoR they just signed last year. He was on top of USC to B1G and Colorado to XII. I really enjoyed his shows last year about the PAC collapse. There is an Arkansas caller that calls on a regular basis named Jamie Thornton. Is that you?
** Edited by Millpoint at 5/14/2024, 7:49:32 PM
(In response to this post by WarHog38)
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WarHog38
2y
(In response to this post by Millpoint)
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TDVick
2y
teams enter or they will have to cough up a lot more than just having to take care of NC State.
(In response to this post by mancunian)
2y
After that, we'll have to wait for the outcome of the FSU/Clemson cases, and the ACC's contract status with ESPN to resolve (ESPN has until end of Feb. 2025 to opt out IIRC), and then things will really start moving.
(In response to this post by mancunian)
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2hhoop3
2y
is playing their cards close to the vest. It really is not clear, at least IMO, who can be trusted, or if anybody can. Certainly the B1G and SEC and their leaders cannot, unless people just choose to overlook the "Alliance" and the B1G moves behind the scenes. Despite any assertions to the contrary, Sankey and the SEC have been dealing from the bottom of the deck on everything from UT/OU realignment to CFP negotiations and playoff expansion scenarios. Even the ACC and Big 12 are likely not innocent, even if maybe less guilty than others. That leaves the likely biggest crooks, the networks, to operate largely in private and "keep their hands clean". It is a very sordid mess and we did not even get to some of the Presidents and member institutions and their behaviors. Needless to say, I have a very cynical opinion these days surrounding college athletics.
(In response to this post by Will Stewart)
2y
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
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RJHokie
2y
assessments of the ACC and Big 12 innocence quotients are good too.
Folks need to be aware that all college athletic conferences have skeletons in their closets and hidden/not so public agendas, some much worse than others. It’s a dog-eat-dog situation for college sports now.
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
2y
In case you missed it further down the board -- it drew very little comment -- Ross Dellenger outlines the latest at this link, including the fact that the House vs. NCAA settlement could be rolled up with settlements of 2-3 other cases. That would be nice, to settle everything at once and chart a new course.
** Edited by Will Stewart at 5/14/2024, 11:16:41 AM
(In response to this post by mancunian)
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2hhoop3
2y
I cannot answer your question because I believe there are too many unknowns that COULD impact my opinion. The largest of these unknowns at present is the looming settlement of existing litigation on a number of fronts and the impact that MIGHT have on other threatened litigation. Charlie Baker was right, some certainty is really needed to aid future decision making.
(In response to this post by mancunian)
worst case is VT in the gentleman's conference(wake, duke, bc, etc)
(In response to this post by mancunian)
2y
(In response to this post by mancunian)
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VTCALS72
2y
and we not. It doesn't matter B12 or "new ACC" as I do not believe the B12 can provide a net return to VT enough above the "new ACC" to warrant the move. Having to compete against the SEC as the new loved conference in our area is the death knell for us.
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
2y
If FSU, CU, UNC (and maybe others) leave the ACC, then ESPN is going to slash our media contract in half. We are equal to the B12 now for money, but that won't last if we lose the big brand schools.
But I do agree that absolute worst case is VT left behind and UVA and UNC getting P2. That would sting.
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
2y
But I believe the Big 12 would take VT in a heartbeat. I know WVU would put it's full support behind it. So I highly doubt you would end up in an ACC lite with BC and Wake.
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
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TDVick
2y
better spot, as sad and pathetic as that is. Hopefully the NC legislature will hamstring UNC as well by bringing along NCSU. UNC is a much more valuable brand and had much bigger coattails than UVa.
I like and respect WVU and their fans and like playing games against them. The B12 has worked out pretty well for WVU, despite getting hosed by the ACC. I really wish this weren't such a market-driven process, but it is.
** Edited by TDVick at 5/14/2024, 1:41:46 PM
(In response to this post by Millpoint)
2y
ACC !
(In response to this post by TDVick)
2y
etc are getting hosed in this deal.
(In response to this post by TDVick)
2y
based on past incidents; I'd love to be in a conference with you guys again. The Big 10 or SEC might be the best harbor for VT athletics but...
(In response to this post by Millpoint)
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obguthr
2y
But if you ask me, WVU as FSU's plus one to the SEC makes more sense than Clemson. Not all P2 targets have to come from the ACC. We make more sense too, but we are in the conversation. WVU never is.
(In response to this post by mancunian)
2y
(In response to this post by obguthr)
2y
are schools in Arizona and other good programs in the B12 that could be candidates.
(In response to this post by obguthr)
2y
It's a shame that the rivalry has almost disappeared since we joined the ACC. I loved playing WVU and having the passion on both sides.
Yes I've been to WVU for a game and heard horror stories (back in the 90's). But I didn't have trouble there and I'm sure fan behavior has improved. Overall I wish we could play them on a regular basis. That's the kind of game that makes college football fun.
(In response to this post by mancunian)
2y
I personally witnessed several VT fans being harassed including an obviously pregnant one. I will never go back.
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
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VTFan29
2y
IF the Big 12 can give more money to VT, why not?
(In response to this post by Millpoint)
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VTCALS72
2y
I do not think the XII can make up for the total travel cost or all our sports.
(In response to this post by VTFan29)
2y
travel expenses through the roof. The President comes out and said with the added revenue (were talking conference USA), that the athletes will now be able to fly instead of riding in a bus. he said that it was much safer for the student athletes.
So are you telling me that VT athletes are riding busses to their conference games? Is a flight to GT cheap? Honestly, this argument of added travel costs is a nothing burger - except for the fans that travel. Are VT fans filling up the stadium at Duke?
Your non revs are going to California next year, and you are splitting hairs with travel expenses? Does your football team take a bus to BC? or do they fly? How about the non revs?
The MAC is the last of the bus leagues, but they just added UMass. Times are a changing - holding on to the past will only hurt your athletic program.
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
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VTCALS72
2y
I am not just talking about football. And, I do believe that the XII is being paid a current premium until the P2 has all the teams they want. After that whether the XII or the ACC Lite, money is going down.
Adding the Cali and Texas schools will add significant travel cost, no matter the method.
And for sure, UVA, Wake, Duke, NCSU UNC and even Clemson are bus distance for all sports.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
2y
those not invited to the popular kids party, there is another pretty fun party for all of us leftovers - and the football is most definitely fun.
Let me ask you. KU is picked as one of the schools that can win the B12 championship this year, and get into the playoffs. It's because they have a good coach, and one of the top quarterbacks in the country.
Do you honestly believe they would be in the discussion for a playoff birth if they were in the SEC or Big 10 this year, let alone a conference championship?
Screw the P2.
(In response to this post by VTFan29)
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obguthr
2y
Nothing is guaranteed. Imagine coming so close to SEC membership on multiple occasions only to be stuck at the same level as JMU and ODU, no disrespect intended.
(In response to this post by mancunian)
2y
Especially an ACC that includes BC and Syracuse.
(In response to this post by obguthr)
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VTCALS72
2y
Is there a school other that WVU that would draw in the state of VA? Who cares about OSU, KU, KSU, ISU, Houston or any schools west of those? JMU, Liberty and ODU would sell better.
(In response to this post by Atlee Hokie)
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VPI 1924
2y
If our fans would prefer JMU, Liberty and ODU over the Big 12 ones you mentioned then God help us.
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
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VTCALS72
2y
JMU, Liberty etc would put more fannies in the Lane seats than the XII schools. Just like VT won't take many fans to those far away places, those schools won't bring much to VT either.
And the bigger issue, this is not about die hard VT fans, it is about that next layer of fans. You know the fans that are watching on TV and may or may not watch VT against some XII school but for sure will switch channels to either or the P2 leagues.
Think how it was before we were in the ACC and how much ACC love was in our own state. Do you really want to have to go against that tide again?
(In response to this post by VPI 1924)
2y
More than any ACC school (minus VT) that has come to Morgantown in the past including Pitt. Big 12 teams travel very well.
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
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2hhoop3
2y
and good traveling fan bases and given a few years interest and rivalries might develop. However, I suspect the state of VA. would take some time to warm to those rivalries and I would imagine it took, or is still taking, West Virginia time as well. Aside from creating a chance for an Eastern Division of the Big 12 with WVU, UCF, Cincy and about 5 others I do not see the draw of the Big 12 unless their is sizeable money increases as at current or slightly elevated levels the money probably doesn't cover the increased travel and other costs coming down the pike.
(In response to this post by Millpoint)
2y
GT, Cuse, Duke? I mean, be careful that you don't live in the same type of bubble the PAC did.
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
2y
the Big 12 would take VT in a heartbeat. Hell it might even be a fun conference.
(In response to this post by obguthr)
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VPI 1924
2y
The Big 12 would be more fun than the current ACC.
(In response to this post by mancunian)
2y
And if the ACC survives in any form, then it will be hard for a lot of schools to afford the exit unless they get P2 money. There is a risk that we could be stuck, along with everyone else who doesn't get a P2 invite.
** Edited by HokieAl at 5/14/2024, 11:13:07 AM
(In response to this post by mancunian)
2y
that if say FSU, CU, UNC and others end up in P2 conferences, the ACC becomes Titanic Collapsible B, Charles Lightoller is commish and its every man for himself.
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
2y
Conference pay-out remains at a similar level. VT sports survive and compete effectively. However, VT is essentially eliminated from any NC consideration in all sports but basketball.
I can live with that.
(In response to this post by mancunian)
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2hhoop3
2y
it is conference meeting season and the time when rumors abound and run rampant are there specific things leading you to this sense?
(In response to this post by mancunian)
2y
I just have the feeling that things are going to move quickly because of the ACC contract with ESPN expiring in basically early 2027. Creates pressure for this to be resolved. And yeah all the popping off from officials or trustees or board members at ACC schools is a factor. I don't think VT being silent is necessarily a bad sign though.
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
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daveinop
2y
i.e., the folks complaining that they don't have a copy of the contract. I'm not saying they are wrong; but I'd be surprised if that was the entire picture. They've not exactly been releasing unbiased info.
Unless it is somehow beneficial for ESPN to blow up the ACC; why would they? Still waiting for someone, somewhere to fill in the blanks on that one...ESPN will opt out of the ACC contract because ________
Again, I'm not saying they won't, but...
In terms of speculation, I think Cobb is right...if FSU and Clemson thought they could into the SEC, they wouldn't be suing. But there is no LHN scenario for them to leverage; ESPN makes more with them where they are right now.
(In response to this post by mancunian)
2y
(In response to this post by daveinop)
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daveinop
2y
I sure hope VT is worth 60M annually!
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
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INSIDE99
2y
That is likely the answer to the question: ESPN will opt out of the ACC contract because __________
ESPN didn't just get full rights to the CFP without some horse trading with other networks.
And none of us are privy to that info so it's always speculation.
(In response to this post by daveinop)
2y
Silly ass.
(In response to this post by ancient alien 2018)