On3: As their cruel summer continues, where do Pac-12 schools turn next?
From today's On3 email newsletter - not a lot new here, for those of you who follow it closely. Teel's article from yesterday (?) is informative as well.
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Is there room for Stanford – with its virtually unparalleled academic-athletic one-two punch, Directors' Cup dominance and campus flush with world-class athletes – in a Power 5 conference?
If not, what does that say about the current college sports enterprise?
The last remnants of the ruined Pac-12 – Stanford, California, Oregon State and Washington State – still need a home.
The Big Ten's West Coast recruiting efforts appear done for now. The Big 12 is signaling it is content at 16 schools. And while ACC leadership has engaged in multiple meetings to flesh out financial implications of adding Stanford and Cal, the league remains a house divided.
Twelve of 15 schools need to be on-board for Bay Area expansion. The majority are, most notably Notre Dame, but opposition is not a surprise. One ACC source told On3 that kicking the tires on Bay Area expansion has been a "reality check."
Challenges abound.
There are zero signs the additions would allay concerns emerging from Florida State, whose leadership has been pounding the table for more revenue. Frustration mounts among the league's biggest brands over watching helplessly as the SEC and Big Ten in the coming years widen the annual revenue gap to $30 million.
Logistical travel challenges and associated costs are daunting. And, perhaps most importantly, adding the Bay Area schools wouldn't markedly grow the league's revenue pie enough to warrant Western expansion.
One veteran TV source: "It wouldn't make any difference."
Another: "Does not make sense to me. Why does ESPN want to ante up more money to make that happen? If they were to ante up more money, existing schools like Florida State would want more first."
If the ACC passes, Cal and Stanford would likely be out of Power 5 options during this realignment round. Meantime, Oregon State and Washington State are "getting their minds wrapped around" what Mountain West Conference membership would entail, sources told On3.
Gloria Nevarez, the MWC commissioner, told On3 that the league wants to add anywhere between one and all four Pac-12 schools. If the MWC fails to land any of them, Nevarez said it would feel like a "missed opportunity for sure."
The AAC is also interested in adding Pac-4 schools. As for Cal and Stanford, Power 5 options may be dwindling as their cruel summer continues.
Notre Dame Athletic Director Jack Swarbrick told ESPN's Heather Dinich, "The notion that two of the very best academic institutions in the world, who also play D-I sports, could be abandoned in this latest chapter of realignment is an indictment of college athletics." – Eric Prisbell
30 Replies
H
Hokester
2y
If ND is so concerned about their buddies being left out then they have the power to get them included. The ACC would likely agree to add Cal and Stanford if ND agreed to join in full. We know though that ND prizes its independence at the expense of everything and everybody so anything they say is worth squat.
(In response to this post by Will Stewart)
2y
Three of these programs will have a hard time staying afloat on reduced media payout. Joining The ACC would at least put them in position to collect CPF money when the time comes. But cross-country travel will be torture on their budget.
Stanford has no concerns about budget but they have a different issue. The Cardinal are not able to get help from the portal the way other schools do. Their admissions office is a stern gatekeeper.
I am not convinced that ACC membership is a positive move for these schools or for the conference.
The AAC is courting them. That is also a national footprint enterprise. These four PAC orphans would likely be used exclusively in the late-night window on ESPN+. Rumor is that ESPN would bump the AAC payout.
Moving to The MWC would be the least disruptive in the long run. They would be used in the late-night window by FS1 but, at least, here they would share that duty with a sixteen-team rotation, so maybe twice per season. And the football would often be on linear (FS1). Fox has (reportedly) also agreed to bump the payout. Another advantage of The MWC is that there are only two years remaining on the media contract, if opportunities arise for them to improve their lot. The AAC and ACC deals end in 2034 and 2036 respectively.
The biggest pill to swallow may be the decision to cling to P4 and struggle status or accept a future (perhaps temporarily) in a G5 world.
(In response to this post by Will Stewart)
S
Stech
2y
You will find someone that could change this, but chooses not to even though you need a west coast game every year and some in the ACC don't want the exorbitant expense to student athletes time and the money part either . I know it's popular to be the victim these days, but this is the height of hypocrisy. Come on man, get real!!
Mag 7 plus 1 can go and the remaining ACC and PAC that doesn't get into the SEC, B1G and B12 can form a conference, maybe NetJets can be their primary sponsor It's time to stop beating the dead horse to service Notre Dame that can't comprehend
win-win ironically. Get the suitcases out Mag 7+1!!!
(In response to this post by Will Stewart)
R
RJHokie
2y
very highly ranked academic institution that doesn't play Division 1 sports.
(In response to this post by Stech)
2y
that does not mean we need to do anything, Swarbrisck should have been quiet and laid low. We are trying to get our NBC contract and signing up for another ACC game will not help. NBC likely wants us to pick up some Big 10 games.
** Edited by goldendomer at 8/11/2023, 10:26:55 AM
(In response to this post by Stech)
W
WBGV
2y
ND’s current athletic director, and NBC Sports Group Chairman Pete Bevacqua who will be replacing Swarbrick in 2024. This is about as close as you can get to self negotiations.
Notre Dame is just waiting to see what happens in conference realignment and how that might affect their non football sports. They are also interested in their access and money distribution from the next expanded football playoff contract.
They are going to keep their options available between B1G membership and football independence plus partial ACC membership as long as possible. If things implode in the ACC, Notre Dame has positioned themself next to the escape hatch. This is just more evidence of the growing instability in the Atlantic Coast Conference.
(In response to this post by goldendomer)
2y
Everyone has an agenda and is looking for an angle, even it it's just throwing others off the scent of something. The way people are parsing these statements and reacting to every blogger post that gets picked up by one of the countless aggregators, is just amusing as hell.
(In response to this post by goldendomer)
S
Stech
2y
going on here. IMHO he is trying to put pressure on the ACC no votes, but he could just say add them and we will go to 6 ACC games as long as one of them is on the west coast. However, like Domer said, he doesn't want to do that because he needs that game to get more money from the NBC contract that will want B1G matchups instead. Why? Because they will make more money.
As Deep Throat (Mark Felt) said, follow the money!!!
(In response to this post by Vienna_Hokie)
S
Stech
2y
finally some ACC teams have woken up to the inevitable. Ironically, I think ND is boxing itself in to eventually have to join the B1G. I think the Mag 7+1 have homes in the P2 and I think some of the others will head to the B12, so good bye GOR!
I just hope that Virginia Tech ends up in a regional conference and not one of these coast to coast monstrosities for the regular season. I am probably a dinosaur, but I still want my athletes to be students first, especially the non-revenue sports student athletes.
(In response to this post by goldendomer)
2y
(In response to this post by Stech)
2y
At this point I hope the PAC 4 stay together and keep the PAC alive. Focus on non-rev sports and play as independent football until they can figure things out.
Their best move is to not let football ruin things for them. It will mean some pain for their football teams but all other sports still have access to NCAA championships. Don’t get sucked into the ACC drama and have to deal with all this again in a few years.
(In response to this post by Will Stewart)
Maybe if the Pac-4 do as you say, why not invite a few FCS schools looking
to make the jump. NDSU, Montana? I think they only need 2 more to make it a recognized football conference. They wouldn't have to entangle themselves with other conferences while they are trying to sort it all out. The FCS schools would benefit by having access to a great brand, even if it isn't long term. If Cal and Stanford get B1G invites down the road, then these former FCS schools can just take over the Pac with Oregon State and Wazzu, if the latter two don't move on themselves.
** Edited by Maroon Baboon at 8/11/2023, 12:27:41 PM
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
2y
There is a minimum # of teams in a conference for the NCAA to recognize it as a conference.
Those 4 schools & the Pac4 are toast without 3 to 4 more teams by 2024.
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
I think it's six teams. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.
The Pac-4 could invite two FCS schools looking to make the jump, possibly for football only. Then join the WCC for the rest of the sports. This might be the option with the least strings attached. And keeps their student athletes from being globetrotters.
I'd look at NDSU and Montana, and possibly their rivals (SDSU and Montana State)
** Edited by Maroon Baboon at 8/11/2023, 12:35:49 PM
(In response to this post by Atlee Hokie)
R
RJHokie
2y
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
I would totally watch Oregon State at Montana (bucket list stadium)
(In response to this post by RJHokie)
2y
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
The last line says it all
"The notion that two of the very best academic institutions in the world, who also play D-I sports, could be abandoned in this latest chapter of realignment is an indictment of college athletics." – Eric Prisbell
(In response to this post by Will Stewart)
2y
Maybe their concern/opinion would carry more weight. In this case, we shouldn’t change the face of our conference based on pressure from a school that isn’t guaranteed to be here for the long-term
(In response to this post by Will Stewart)
V
Vippie1
2y
if I had to guess the one on the B1G's secret white board with a bit of an asterisk, it is focused on a 24 team of four 6 team pods.
Maybe we are a few years from that. But ultimately you save a place for Stanford and Cal and then have your west coast pod.
That leaves four spots for ACC schools (assuming ND doesnt bite and take it down to 3). The best (but unlikely) scenario for VT is that UNC, UVa and VT are three of the chosen. Okay all speculation of the highest order but hear me out-and the ACC schools reflect more what I want then maybe what the B1G would want. But there is some symmetry to this.
B1G of 24 schools in say 2028:
West pod: UW, OU, Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA
Upper MW: Minn, Wis, NW, Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois
MW: Mich, MSU, Purdue, IU, OSU (and the dream of ND)
East: Rutgers, PSU, UMD, UVa, VT, NC
If no ND -add NCSU, Duke, Cuse or Pitt as another ACC school.
Of course if the SEC and B1G are able to split ACC states this would look different.
(In response to this post by Will Stewart)
2y
they choose could easily be Utah, ASU, and/or Arizona. The Western division could be four teams, or five, six, seven, etc.
(In response to this post by Vippie1)
2y
Now, before their programs potentially decline in a lower level conference
(In response to this post by Vippie1)
Bingo. Keeping schools on the back burner hurts the back burner school.
Ditto for Pitt and Syracuse when the ACC left them behind. And ditto for UO and UW when the B1G just let them sit there for a year. Pathetic, really.
(In response to this post by wwhokie1)
O
obguthr
2y
I've never bought into that arguement.
(In response to this post by wwhokie1)
Sometimes the conference needs to take a desirable team when the team is
ready. Not when the conference is ready.
Heard an Oregon fan make this great point on a talk show the other day.
It seems to me the UO had back channel info that they had a decent chance at going to the B1G. But still. They certainly had to think at some point during the process about inking a deal in a different direction.
It was pretty obnoxious by the Big Ten in my opinion.
I felt that the ACC should have taken Syracuse and Pitt at the same time they were taking Miami, VT and BC. Also, WVU should have been invited.
(In response to this post by obguthr)
2y
They have no other options. Bad for them, but make the most of a bad situation. I'm probably a minority of 1, but if then ACC had to take 2 of the remaining Pac12 schools, I'd rather have Oregon State & Washington State than Cal & Stanford.
2) ND's Swarbrick is rich. ND could make Cal & Stanford happen in a New York minute. Join the ACC, and it would happen. ND wants those 2 in a big conference, but not at the cost of giving up their precious "independence".
3) Totally agree, those 2 west coast teams add absolutely zero to the ACC, except added cost and travel.
4) I'd be more amenable to SMU, while not close is a lot closer than the west coast.
5) There are no concessions the ACC could make to F$U to make them happy and keep them in the ACC in the future. FSU is going to leave at the first opportunity. F$U definitely has an oversized opinion of themselves.
(In response to this post by Will Stewart)
Would also prefer Oregon State and Wazzu if all other things were equal
over Stanford and Cal. OSU and WSU are more enthusiastic about football. Yeah, yeah, I know--the getting the ACCN into Cali and the academic prestige of UC and Stanford. But still.
Also agree about SMU. I feel like they are hungry, and unlike so many other schools, they appear to put their money where their mouth is.
(In response to this post by Atlee Hokie)
2y
found a way to hand FSU and extra $15 million a year, there is still a huge gap between them and SEC/BIG. They will leave the ACC at a moment's notice regardless of any accomodations made for them. All the ACC is doing is giving them free money until they leave which is an absolute.
(In response to this post by Atlee Hokie)
Yep, FSU has always had an enormous ego.
The thing is, Florida doesn't want them in the SEC but Texas A&M didn't want Texas in the SEC and look what we have now. Then again, oversized egos have caused this conference realignment mess. Who would've thought that Vanderbilt, Rutgers, Maryland, Mississippi State, Northwestern and even Minnesota would have a seat at the Power 2 table while Stanford is left out and likely a few more deserving ACC schools. F$U's ego would fit right in with the rest of the Power 2 egos. As for Notre Dame, you are 100%. They need to go to confession and say ten Hail Marys and give up their precious football independence as their penance. LOL
(In response to this post by Atlee Hokie)