VT to B1G? I'm not predicting it, but I would increase our chances based on
the new intel we all took in this past month.
Here's why:
1. I think that the B1G showed that they prefer football chops over academics with Oregon being picked over Stanford. Lots of old order Big Ten fans are griping about Oregon's lack of research investment. Guess what? No one cared. Oregon is in, Stanford is out. While VT is not AAU (yet), I no longer think our lack of AAU membership, or just the fact that we don't have the profile that UVa has, makes us a non-starter for B1G selection. BTW, I know it's not an exact comparison, but I see UVa to be more like Stanford, and VT to be more like Oregon.
2. I think the SEC is going to go HARD for UNC. I might be wrong here. But the ball is in the SEC's court after the B1G landed USC. UNC is the top brand out there for the SEC in a state they don't already have. I also think the SEC will take UVa in order to get UNC, and they should. Many say that UVa is more attractive to the B1G than VT. They aren't wrong about this, but I think the gap just narrowed some. I also think that UVa would like to stay with UNC more than anything, be it SEC or B1G, or staying in the ACC. I don't think they care about staying with Tech even if we both had the choice.
3. Lots of chatter about the B1G wanting to go East and also possibly take Clemson and FSU. Well, neither Clemson and FSU are AAU and neither is particularly superior to VT in terms of academics. While the B1G wants to get into the South, I don't think they want to go in for small time football programs. I think they'd prefer SEC-like programs if they are going to move into the neighborhood. If it comes to SEC-like programs, I think VT is right up there next behind FSU and Clemson.
4. Location, location, location. I think the SEC and the B1G want into VA and NC bad. The B1G took almost the minimal amount of teams to make the annexation of USC palatable. And said no thanks to the Mountain Time Zone. And neither P2 went into the Southwest. Seems like both are keeping their knives sharpened for the partition of the ACC. Either should be happy with either one of the VA schools. I hope both UVa and VT end up in a P2 conference if the ACC goes in the direction we all fear it might. Other than New York, these are the next two largest states NOT in the current P2. Fast growing too. And relatively wealthy.
Anyway, not trying to be a homer. Hoping the trend of ACC deterioration reverses. But in case it all goes down, I want VT to be ready.
** Edited by Maroon Baboon at 8/7/2023, 2:23:08 AM
31 Replies
2y
As crazy as it sounds...with a Pac12/ACC (long-shot) coastal conference now gone, I'm beginning to think the BigSEC lines may loosely resemble "The War"...Collectively, the MAG 8 have power/value as the last standing regiment. It would be more valuable to negotiate as a block of 8 (to get to full share), but the FSU fragmentation is concerning....Anyway, interesting map
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
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EDGEMAN
2y
(In response to this post by VT757to276)
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WarHog38
2y
Even got the two old Confederate Border States of Missouri & Kentucky that Lincoln had to send Federal Troops into the State Capitols to hold in his Union.
FSU would be a fly in the ointment. It just figures with those arrogant pan handle rednecks. I remembered them from 1990 and thought back then they would be paired with the Hogs going into the SEC. I was immediately attacked when I got on a FSU Scout Board twenty years later when they bashed the SEC, the Hogs, my sisters & me.. I never mentioned having three sisters to those dogs but they did hit a nerve getting me royally mad. I made one vehement post and was permanently banned. They had made a whole long thread of previously bashing me that I guess the twisted moderator enjoyed reading. Those silly scoundrels belong enjoying December games in Madison & East Lansing. That is hockey country. They are that damn foolish.
(In response to this post by VT757to276)
2y
I knew the posting of a Civil War map would draw out WarHog38, but I wasn't expecting this.
(In response to this post by WarHog38)
How much pull does Timothy Sands have...
being at Purdue for 11 years before coming to Tech. Does he still have Big Ten connections? Tech has more in common with the Big Ten schools than SEC schools when it comes to research an academics but the SEC has some quality research and academic schools in Vanderbilt, Florida, Texas, Texas A&M and Georgia. Tech hosts Purdue this football season and travels to Rutgers. Will Sands be promoting Tech? Tech is similar to Penn State and isn't that far from Ohio State and Maryland. Sands has that UC-Berkeley connection that Big Ten presidents may also like. If the ACC implodes, Tech needs to invite as many Big Ten presidents to Blacksburg and the new Alexandria campus and show them what Tech is all about. Tech's campus is impressive and its setting is beautiful. Buckeye fans enjoyed their visit to Tech when they played here. They also were surprised how close it was to Ohio. Another thing is there are lots of Big Ten alums in the state of Virginia. I still think the Big Ten would prefer UVA to Tech but those who say Tech has no chance of landing in the Big Ten are underestimating Virginia Tech.
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
2y
Football and its associated money drive this.
The rest is noise.
(In response to this post by Old Line Hokie)
It could matter when it comes down to Tech and another school ...
to take the last available spot. I realize it all comes down to football and our performace on the field but college presidents are a different bird than tv executives.
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2y
the academic reputation part might matter; not the politicking or anything else. Every university president (or provost or whatever other high-ranking academic official) has contacts all over...Sands having been at Purdue or Cal or bringing some president(s) to the Alexandria campus (which isn't really what VT is "all about") is nothing. Buckeye fans having had a good trip and being ignorant about geography is surely not going to matter.
People just keep waaaay over-valuing academics in all of this (both the value to whatever conference and to VT)
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2hhoop3
2y
and his gut take was pretty close. The real tipping point is number. 40 teams(20 each for BIG and SEC) and VT MiGHT get a seat but, it will be close. 44 and they're in but, no wiggle room for unforeseen changes. 48 and they should be safe. The best thing VT can do for itself is control the things they can control. Improve and win in all sports, particularly FB and BB, with stability in the lesser revs and non-revs. Behind the scenes Sands, Whit and others need to keep channels open with both the SEC and BIG AND network execs, not lobbying, but, making sure VT's case is advocated. They absolutely DO NOT need to take any pages from FSU's current playback and, if they chose another approach for a point of reference, Clemson would likely be a better choice.
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Vippie1
2y
but Oregon vs Stanford is more VT vs Duke than VT vs UVa.
You are correct in that VA & NC are both coveted by both conferences.
Bottom line, left to their own greed, they will happily partition UVa/UNC and VT/NCSU. But the chance to leverage a take it or leave it package deal to either P2 remains. My suspicion is the best way into the B1G for VT is part of a pod that includes UVa and UNC. I really think both of those schools (as well as VT) strongly prefer B1G vs SEC. I however think NCSU may actually prefer SEC (even w/out UNC). I am not particularly optimistic this will happen but IMO this is the best possible outcome for VT should the ACC implode.
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
2y
Take Stanford. Stanford is superior to UVA!
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
2y
Why they took Oregon and not Stanford and why they would take VT or UVA before Stanford.
(In response to this post by wwhokie1)
As he described, they care about football
UVA could be the Stanford of the acc in conference expansion
(In response to this post by wwhokie1)
2y
Uva went through that phase in 1951, and persisted through 1982.
(In response to this post by wwhokie1)
2y
If Clemson and VT are added to the B1G, then they beat their chests again about all of the land grant universities they have and plays up to some of the academic talk. Another reason for NCSU to have good hope if UNC heads south.
I see the B1G looking for 6 more schools: VT/UVa, UNC/NCSU, FSU, Clemson, Miami, GT. GT gets kicked off the island if ND even cracks the door of a membership. I do think there will be a turf battle for FSU and Clemson between the SEC and B1G. If they go south with UNC, UVa, the SEC may just stop there at 20 schools and see how it plays out for decade or so. That could leave a space for two of Kansas, Syracuse, Pitt, WVU in the B1G (chances fade in that order).
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
2y
The ACC deal is not as bad as people make it out to be and simply putting a better product on the field and generating better ratings, scheduling better OOC games that generate money and once in a while getting a second team in the playoff (back to putting a better product on the field) will make more money. If the league does break up it will either be a financial windfall for the remaining schools in the near term OR because the entire CFB landscape blows up, which I think is the most likely.
Assuming the league breaks up and not the result of some big re-do, I think half the conference goes to B12, which splits into two conferences, an east and west (BC, Duke, Wake, Looooovile, Syr, GT for sure, us the hoos and puppies kind of depends on what the SEC and BIG are looking for). I see the mouse fighting to keep VA/NC in the fold, UNC, Clem and FSU are SEC for sure, us, hoos and puppies are likely in that scenario. Miami I would say is likely to go to BIG (large urban market, overly full of themselves, underperforms..a perfect team for the BIG).
(In response to this post by Victor Tango)
2y
It's still better than the Big 12.
If the SEC is happy at 16, it will survive with a path to the playoffs.
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VaPoly07
2y
and now the big 10 has 18 teams. are they really going to take more than that? and what does VT have to offer? UNC has the Jordan brand (obviously) and Clemson and FSU are superior in football.
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WarHog38
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I don't see them going beyond that unless Notre Dame gives the B1G #21. Think they would never sit at 21, The B1G stayed at 11 for nearly 20 years.
I just cannot seen the P2 going beyond 20. It gets down to slicing the pie for people that bring little to the table. A money issue and this is all about MONEY.
That means six ACC schools to the P2 with both surely wanting a presence in the large population states of Virginia & North Carolina. They also will both want FSU & Clemson. If either or both those deep southern schools go to the B1G. Things will really get interesting because that would put the SEC playing 2nd fiddle. Something the SEC has not even thought about the last few decades.
(In response to this post by VaPoly07)
2y
day. Any further expansion for them might be into another region. But they really don't want to do that IMO.
It will be interesting to see if down the road, either P2 goes into the Rockies or the Southwest.
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2y
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EDGEMAN
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2y
at this data. And understand this chart is more accurate than many of the websites that rank which are the best teams to add. It is not only the size and following of the fan base, but also the additional TV markets (expansion of states) which would be influenced by them. In this regard, I think VT ranks high for SEC to add. Plus they don't see VT as a threat like FSU, Clemson etc do to their teams already within those states.
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2y
the networks are.
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WarHog38
2y
I think these college athletic conferences are all the same in many ways. You have the haves & have nots. Then you have the conference homers. They are three distinct identities that all start vying in at least somewhat different directions when these conferences start breaking up.
In the PAC the Haves were USC, UCLA, Oregon & Washington. The Have Nots were Oregon State, Washington State, Cal & Stanford. The Homers were Arizona State & Utah. The Haves held all the cards and had their directions ready to be executed in a moment's notice. The Have Nots just sat silently through it all and did just a little complaining as the axe finally fell. The Homers worked behind the scenes even being sneaky doing all they could to save the PAC.
I think the ACC will go much the same way. The Haves are FSU & Clemson. The Haves Nots are Duke, Wake Forest, BC, Syracuse. The Homer is a big one with UNC and their might be another sleeper homer or two among those 14. All the homers will show their faces when the SHTF.
The first salvo will be when FSU & Clemson leave the ACC. The Haves will then be gone. The Homers would never leave next and will then do all they can along with the Have Nots to save the ACC. The back breaker for the ACC will be when the next wave of schools decide to immediately exit the ACC, the Virginia schools, Miami & maybe Georgia Tech. As that second wave of ACC schools attempt to leave, the Homers will still be doing all they can behind the scenes to save the ACC.
UNC is a homer. That was clearly shown when the AD publicly lashed out at FSU. A lot of ACC schools don't like the constant belly aching about the ACC that FSU publicly puts out. However the North Carolina AD has been the only one to publicly challenge FSU. That shows the true face of UNC. They will do everything just like Arizona State did with the PAC to save the ACC to the bitter end.
** Edited by WarHog38 at 8/7/2023, 8:18:53 AM
** Edited by WarHog38 at 8/7/2023, 8:30:53 AM
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Hokie 04
2y
thinking. I held my nose and went to grad school there (UVA), and one of the professors made a comment about "our peer institutions like Wharton and Harvard." I laughed out loud, thinking he was being funny, before I realized he was serious. If any student at either of those schools had woken up at their "peer institution" in Charlottesville, they would have promptly jumped off a building.
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)