Neo Gravity and Net Rating
I had to laugh at the analysis on the last tech sideline basketball podcast. There was mention of his gravity, being helpful for the team. The stats point out that this is the exact opposite. There is little or no reason to stretch your defense to guard Neo. Mucking up the offense for everyone else.
The Hokies are -27 points per 100 possessions with Neo on the floor during ACC games.
In fact, he is easily our worst player that gets consistent minutes. If we want to win now, we should move those minutes more heavily toward Schutt and Bedford.
Stats and image courtesy of Basketball Reference
** Edited by jtHokie05 at 2/5/2026, 10:20:26 PM
42 Replies
5mo
who manages to stay on the court and out of foul trouble, who gets VT approximately 2 extra possessions per 100, and who is a consistent double digit scorer?
Not all numbers are useful, and not all numbers are meaningful. Your stats are meaningless when they don't consider minutes played (he has played the most of the whole team), total possessions played, position of the players, role of the player within the offense, and team results (hint, we have won a lot of games with him as a starter). You don't remove a key piece of the team because of a temporary shooting slump.
The only thing that is needed is for him to get a few more of those free throws down (I'd like to see him above 70%), and get some of those 3's to drop (shooters just need to keep shooting).
** Edited by HokieAl at 2/6/2026, 12:18:47 AM
(In response to this post by jtHokie05)
5mo
correct
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
5mo
It’s a simple way to normalize stats between teams that play at different pace. Some teams milk every shot clock, while others run and gun.
All the stats included in the picture are per/100 possessions, not per game.
Team A scores 60 points in a game with 50 possessions they would show up as 120.0 Offensive Rating on this stat
Team B score 90 points in 75 possessions would also show up as 120.0 Offensive Rating on this stat
It’s not averages of averages or whatever the other guy said.
** Edited by jtHokie05 at 2/6/2026, 10:29:41 PM
(In response to this post by uber hokie)
5mo
They are not actual numbers. They are averages of averages and combined into a model that is different from actual stats.
For raw numbers, on the season (taken from Hokiesports stats):
#1 Neo, 106 total assists (22 games), 46 assists in ACC play (10 games)
#2 Ben, 75 total assists (23 games), 30 assists in ACC play (10 games)
#3 Amani, 58 total assists (22 games), 19 in ACC play (10 games)
(In response to this post by uber hokie)
5mo
They’re subjective, system-driven, and mostly measure who dominates the ball, not who actually creates good offense. The same pass can be an assist or nothing depending on whether the shot goes in or the scorer takes one extra dribble. Meanwhile, collapsing a defense or forcing a rotation, the stuff that actually breaks opponents, often never shows up in the box score. Ben does those things! Neo does not.
You see it all the time: a point guard piles up 9 or10 assists, but the offense is slow, predictable, and everyone’s standing around waiting their turn. Ball movement dies, shot quality drops, and team efficiency actually goes down, even though the assist total looks great. Meanwhile, the best offenses often don’t have one guy racking up assists - they have multiple guys making quick reads and the extra pass. Assists feel like teamwork, so people overvalue them, but without efficiency and turnover context, they’re mostly credit for the last pass, not proof you helped the offense.
I think jtHokie05 captured this exact reality in his analysis.
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
5mo
There is literally zero method to calculate what Neo's presence does to opponents.
VTs opponents play worse when Neo is off the floor because their game plan has to shift from Neo being the focal point to a more balanced approach.
You might think taking Neo off the floor will mean they would get confused more often but what would really happen is teams would stop game planning for Neo and simply work on their base defense more and play it more in games.
Teams play Neo the way they do DESPITE the production, not because of it. Because every coach who is worth anything knows you need to get the ball out of his hands, and when you cant you need to plug gaps.
Neo absolutely needs to knock down whatever open looks he gets to take the offense to the next level, but the offense doesn't get better benching the most gravitational player it has.
If Neo simply hits open shots theres not many teams in the country who can guard VT. There is no other lineup that can come close to saying that
(In response to this post by jtHokie05)
5mo
He has done it before, this season actually
How close have you gotten to the rim
(In response to this post by uber hokie)
5mo
"VTs opponents play worse when Neo is off the floor because their game plan has to shift from Neo being the focal point to a more balanced approach."
should this be:
"VTs opponents play worse when Neo is on the floor because their game plan has to shift from a more balanced approach to Neo being the focal point."
I wouldn't think your point would be that VT opponents play worse when Neo is off the floor (implying VT is a better team with Neo off the floor), but VT opponents play worse when he's on the floor.
Maybe i'm misunderstanding...
(In response to this post by GCHokie34)
C
cbhokie1
5mo
I think we can just admit he has struggled and it wouldn’t be completely crazy to think about distributing some of his minutes elsewhere until he figures things out. No amount of coach speak or “I know more than you” is gonna change what the eyes and numbers clearly show.
(In response to this post by GCHokie34)
V
Vippie1
5mo
we are clearly the best when he is at his best. sitting isn't really the answer. this is on the staff to figure it out. he probably does need to play off ball more. Almost every team since Providence has game planned running guys into his grill and we havent figured out collectively a way to consistently burn the other team for its overplay. he also needs to play downhill more- seek and accept contact and take it into the body of the defender and put pressure on the officials . Yes, he needs more strength to do that well but gotta start somewhere. I'm not sure he has been called for a charge this season .
(In response to this post by cbhokie1)
C
cbhokie1
5mo
Obviously when he’s left to play his game, Neo can be a game changer. Not many 6’9 guys can see the floor and attack you at different levels like he can, but when teams are focusing on him defensively, neither he nor the coaches have found an answer. I would like to see him off ball more as well, but this would also require some more buy in and effort from him. He seems to get a bit stagnant off the ball and he’s not fast enough to get away from people or big/strong enough to muscle over or through people. He’s also not the best screen setter, which is a shame, he could be a force rolling and dishing or popping up to the 3 line, or even just drawing a crowd. I honestly don’t care that he was 1-8 and has shot poorly, it happens, but it’s really the lazy and unforced turnovers and mistakes at critical moments that bother me. This has been a repeated occurrence now in multiple games and I think that hurts the team and warrants a spot on the bench more than anything else. You simply can’t have your “star” player checking out and making mistakes at critical points of seemingly every game. I think this leaves the coaches at a bit of an impasse because it’s hard to keep the talent off the court, but the way things have played out in ACC play, he has been shut down as the primary ball handler and he’s not a great off-ball player, so what do you do?
(In response to this post by Vippie1)
5mo
without the ball. too much stagnation in his game
** Edited by Windows NT at 2/6/2026, 10:23:02 AM
(In response to this post by Vippie1)
5mo
whole. Yup. That tracks.
(In response to this post by jtHokie05)
5mo
(In response to this post by jtHokie05)
5mo
There's an old saying...if the numbers don't match up to reality, then you're measuring the wrong thing.
(In response to this post by jtHokie05)
5mo
(In response to this post by jtHokie05)
5mo
What exactly is the ORtg and how is it derived? Well, same for DRtg - i get one is offense and one is defense.
"The Hokies are -27 points per 100 possessions with Neo on the floor during ACC games." Is that number something you can get off that chart somehow - if so, how is that calculated?
(In response to this post by jtHokie05)
5mo
The simplest way to think of O Rating without looking at their mathematical formulas is points scored every 100 times you have the ball. The per 100 part is to normalize all teams to adjust for the pace each team plays. (Think of the old super slow paced UVA teams). D Rating is just the same except points given up. O Rating - D Rating is Net Rating.
They track all the five man lineups and keep track of net rating for each player for only when he’s on the court.
(In response to this post by Walkin` Willie)
5mo
Whew, that is some tough stuff. I'll bet CMY is losing sleep on what to do with Neo.
** Edited by Walkin` Willie at 2/5/2026, 4:16:16 PM
(In response to this post by Walkin` Willie)
5mo
Whether you look at eFG%, TS%, PER or Win Shares they all point to an obvious problem. Our highest usage player is our worst player.
In the short term, if I was the coach, I would want to cut his minutes as much as possible and use him in an off-ball cutting and quick passing role.
Unfortunately, for this team to reach its true ceiling (winning a tournament game or two) it probably means Neo breaks his slump rather than benching him. In the meantime, we may miss the tournament altogether hoping the slump will break. (All the NBA Draft experts I read had shooting and defense as his major question marks coming into the season, so I’m afraid it’s not just a slump).
(In response to this post by jtHokie05)
5mo
His offensive rating has tanked as most teams we’ve played in conference are blitzing him on ball screens.
When he gets the ball out of his hands quickly it definitely opens things up. I would say that’s rare though, and the double teams have killed his offensive game completely.
He just operates at about 80% the speed of everyone else on offense. Just once I would like to see him come off a screen aggressively to receive the ball and go straight downhill. Instead he uses off-ball screens to free him up to just receive the pass and lets his defender recover to go 1 on 1.
He needs to watch how Schutt uses off ball screens to create space, Neo has the ability to do the same thing only he can actually attack the basket
** Edited by soflahokie at 2/5/2026, 2:57:46 PM
(In response to this post by jtHokie05)
5mo
Net Rating is how the entire team performs when he’s on the floor, not just an individual stat. The team is literally at their worst during ACC play when he’s on the floor. So, I don’t think he’s opening up anything.
(In response to this post by soflahokie)
5mo
And Dorn's fouls...lol.
(In response to this post by jtHokie05)
5mo
I know he has a stiff back but he has next to zero balance when defending.
Can't image him not being recruited over next season.
(In response to this post by Chris Coleman)
5mo
hard to be agile and balanced when your back spasms are acting up
(In response to this post by tallahasseehokie)
5mo
** Edited by Chris Coleman at 2/5/2026, 6:47:59 PM
(In response to this post by tallahasseehokie)
5mo
know what I was looking at there.
(In response to this post by Chris Coleman)
5mo
but, I guess we had to try to upgrade. Finding cheap big men is always highly risky.
(In response to this post by tallahasseehokie)
5mo
11 double-doubles so far. Draws the double teams.
(In response to this post by VT ChemE 1986)
5mo
That's who I wanted. He's at George Mason.
(In response to this post by VT ChemE 1986)
5mo
that we took Dorn over allenspach. Allenspach was interested, we could've had him. I assume they went for more or less the same price and we shouldn't be outbid by GMU anyway
(In response to this post by Chris Coleman)
V
Vippie1
5mo
and they blow their whistles.
He is like a red souped up camaro to a cop needing to hit his speeding ticket quota at the end of the month.
(In response to this post by Chris Coleman)