INSIDE99
I
Posting History (223)
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Money is the root of all evil
If that is along the lines of what you are trying to state, I agree. It has ruined college sports from every angle.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Only the TV networks have an idea
This Flugar scenario is a first - and he has no clue or his sources have no clue. I think everyone (including myself) have taken stabs at what we think is going to happen with realignment. All part of the joy of college athletics predictions. Even the sources don't know for certain. The only ones who have an idea are the TV networks.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
What is your question?
This I assume:
"As far as the cost to exit, tell me how you believe that has evolved so we can have a better basis for discussing your fiction versus facts."
REPEATED ANSWER: The ACC contract ends before 2036 if ESPN does not extend the option past 2026. That was discovered in the FSU lawsuit after nearly every outlet claimed the contract was unbreakable through 2036. Yea, I would say that is a definition of "evolved". The exit fee is 3X the ACC operating budget. The media rights fee owed to ESPN (not the ACC) is tied into the media contract. If that ends in 2026 the fee is much less than original $500 million reported had the contract ran its course for another 13 seasons. In simpler terms...if someone exits the ACC in 2025 and the ESPN contract runs through 2026 - a member owes one year of media rights + an exit fee. Likely around $150 million. Not another 11 years of media rights.
You are going round and round because you don't like the answer. The ACC cannot for example, renegotiate a contract that pays each school $1 a year and then tell the members too bad you signed a contract. When the ESPN contract ends at the agreed to rate, the media rights end. The GoR exit fees do not.
If you do not agree, that's your prerogative. But Clemson doesn't even agree the GoR is enforceable. Hence a lawsuit.
Tell me, how does the ACC/ESPN contract work using facts?
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Virginia Tech will compete for a 2024 playoff spot on Dec 7
The answers to your numerous questions have already been answered on this forum. Yet you keep asking the same questions you seem to already have your own conclusions for.
Once again, nobody has all the facts on realignment. It's all speculation.
If you can hopefully accept my "not always being correct" position...
FSU and Clemson will be out of the ACC and in the P2 before the 2026 season (if not sooner) and the exit cost will not come to remotely half of $500 million. The current courtroom theatre is a leverage tool to settlement. The networks will make the decision as always. ESPN will not renew the ACC contract at the current value once Clemson/FSU bolt. Teams that do not get into a P2 alignment by 2027 will be making half of what the P2 schools bring in through TV rights revenue and CFP revenue. This will happen while a compensation model for athletes is negotiated and settlements in the House vs. NCAA ordeal are completed...all for a very steep price. I originally felt more teams would also be leaving the ACC. Now I'm not so sure in the near future after what I see happening in North Carolina. FSU insiders claim with vigilance that FSU will play the 2024 as an Independent. I don't really agree with that timing. But they have to announce by August 15 if they are anticipating P2 membership for 2025. A Composition Clause absolutely exists to where if ACC membership drops below 15 teams that ESPN can void the contract. I don't know what happens if that occurs before June 30 when Calford/SMU are added. Virginia Tech will play in the ACC Championship Game in 2024 and have a chance to reach the playoffs. The only Top 25 team they will likely face is a lesser than before Clemson at Lane Stadium. But that doesn't matter now since the ACC has an AQ bid unlike last season when the CFP committee openly admitted on Selection Sunday the ACC was garbage.
It's all just my predictions based on what I hear and read. Nothing more. If I am wrong, it won't be the first time or the last. I sense you are a fan like me. I have asked what your predictions on this realignment outcome might be but you won't share. No reason we can't enjoy college football sharing of thoughts on what might happen, whether it's a game prediction or realignment prediction.
You keep saying I represent statements as fact. I don't know how else to explain otherwise than what I just typed above. Of course I am speculating like everyone else :)
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 4/8/2024, 7:50:17 PM
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
The Board of Governors
basically reassigned the power of the UNC-Chapel Hill Board of Trustees to make wholesale changes over to the interim chancellor of the university. The change now transfers power away from the trustees.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
If you google
ACC GoR ironclad - about 400+ sources at all levels.
Back in December, the GoR was represented by a large portion of the media as unbreakable through 2036 (or ironclad so the term became). That for FSU to leave the cost was over $500 million by most accounts. That narrative has evolved since.
I thought this was common knowledge.
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 4/8/2024, 2:10:18 PM
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
The link worked for me, here it is...
I just read it again. Worth the time. Again, this article is about decision making structure at the university level, not so much realignment. Although they have to be intertwined.
https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/education/article...
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 4/8/2024, 1:57:56 PM
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Do UNC trustees need to âstay in our laneâ?
This realignment saga seemingly has no end to its reach. The University of North Carolina system seems to be in the beginnings of a wild power struggle. The BOG versus the BOT maneuvering to see if UNC has the authority to ever leave the ACC.
Found the article interesting, not as much from a realignment view but more so from a university decision making structure.
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 4/8/2024, 1:15:38 PM
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Depends on who is doing the interpretation
The ACC, Clemson, FSU, Judge Bledsoe, Judge Cooper, high level legal firms, etc.
Otherwise their would be no lawsuits.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
What 133921Hokie said
The ACC (or any other conference) cannot sustain itself against the P2 likes when the money discrepancy is that severe over the course of time. Slow or quick - but it's already happening.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
FSU does not owe a fiduciary duty to the ACC
The ACC vs. FSU court case from this past week in NC saw Judge Bledsoe grant FSU one aspect that apparently no one is reading into.
Judge Bledsoe concluded that FSU does not owe a fiduciary duty to the conference. FSU camp says they are out for 2024. I guess we'll see.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Federal Court
This Tuesday Apr 9, the FSU complaint gets addressed for the first time in Leon County - Tallahassee. If the judge determines that Florida is the place to hold this lawsuit - it could then get passed to Federal Court. There are other issues at stake beyond venue - the biggest maybe being the motion to seal ESPN documents.
Personally, I have no issue with Judge Bledsoe in NC seeing this case through. He is very competent and capable. People always talk about home cooking but Bledsoe will be more than fair from what I can tell. So other lawyers also claim.
This case hasn't even started yet. All these preliminaries hearings don't even address the heart of the matter. If the process runs the course, it's another year or two before judgement day at least. If attorneys wish to start appeal processes and delays it can take even longer. I'm sure other lawyers here will attest about time in these situations.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Lawsuits are separate
On March 19, Clemson filed its own lawsuit challenging the ACC Grant of Rights in South Carolina court.
The following day, the ACC filed a countersuit in North Carolina asking the court to find exactly the opposite and grant other relief.
The parties will likely first need to work through where claims will be heardâNorth Carolina or South Carolina. Much the same as FSU is attempting to deal with in right of venue.
The two lawsuits are not related in regards to the court. The ramifications however, have many tentacles.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
The GoR does not need renegotiated
The GoR doesn't need renegotiated. The media rights sold to ESPN would if ESPN opts out or does not extend.
In a real world example, the ACC cannot tell Virginia Tech you signed a GoR that includes media rights guaranteeing $40 million per year through 2036. But now ESPN bailed on that contract before its 2036 completion and we picked up a new deal but can now only pay you $15 million per year. Sorry about your financial luck. That's not what Virginia Tech signed off on and such would not be enforceable.
ESPN has until February 2025 to extend the ACC contract past the 2026 season. They have not as of yet. The details on how that came about were discovered after FSU filed the lawsuit. Hence, a big part of the Clemson and FSU lawsuits are specifically geared towards not being told about this ESPN extension option. Everyone just assumed the ESPN contract ran through 2036. The GoR was signed back in 2013 and then amended and resigned back in 2016 with the formation of the ACC Network. The ESPN extension option was added in 2021 by then retiring ACC commissioner John Swofford - but no vote by the conference members was taken on that extension - a major legal contention. No lawyer knows how the court will interpret this thing on many levels such as this one.
If ESPN does not extend the contract after the 2026 season is over -- then Clemson/FSU could play in the ACC for 2024 and 2025 - then leave. What they owe the ACC at that point is the exit fee (3 times the league operating expense which is estimated at $130 million) plus one year of media rights payable to ESPN (roughly another $30 million).
As another example, ESPN can bail on the ACC contract for 2024. If that is the case, then Clemson/FSU can leave the next day, pay the $130 million GoR exit fee and that's it.
This is why there is much talk about Clemson and FSU announcing they are leaving for the 2024 season before June 30. If they leave, the league drops below the required 15 teams, which gives ESPN an option to bail. At that point, the only fee to be paid is the exit fee. The courts can fight that one out for another two years but ESPN holds that key. I know...it's an ugly scramble right now.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
GoR
The GoR is attached to the media rights agreement with ESPN through 2036. If ESPN bails, the GoR cannot be renegotiated under the same membership terms.
The exit fee (three times the ACC's operating budget) is a separate entity.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
This will end in settlement
Otherwise this legal course takes a year or two per normal process. The networks will decide realignment process again.
I'm not sure how a good many people still come up with this $500 million + fee to get out of the ACC as if the ESPN contract will be in place through 2036.
I will add that if VT gets a P2 offer, the offer is accepted with zero hesitation. All Hokies celebrate what they pointed the finger at Clemson and FSU for attempting. Guess it depends on what side one resides. Listen to the money talk.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Collective Bargaining
Two aspects are not going to change...
1. The B1G and SEC want to keep their brand name
2. Big markets don't want to share revenue anymore
There are several platforms being discussed involving the evolution of college football, this is one of them. Regardless of the platform adopted...dealing with NIL, Transfer Portal, Title IX and court settlements coming down the pike will be dealt with through collective bargaining. We just don't know who the collective will be.
This CST group is spearheaded by presidents at Syracuse and WVU and a few other ACC members. I don't think the P2 is interested in this concept. "While the ACC board of directors reportedly listened to a presentation from CST officials, the Big Ten, SEC and Big 12 all canceled plans for a similar sit-down."
I see a super conference of 48 teams. Maybe a few more.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
What do you think?
I would love to hear your take on how some of this plays out. Whether you may be right or wrong is OK, I get the sense you are well read on the topic or you would not be on this alignment board. But please, I hope you come back and hold me to some of these predictions. I trust the people telling me these things but as I have stated, even the sources speculate.
I also make predictions on who wins games - part of being a fan. And if I was right all the time I would live in Vegas.
I also believe VT can make the playoffs this season. There I said it :)
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 4/1/2024, 2:44:31 AM
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
What happens if FSU and Clemson leave for 2024?
If Clemson and FSU leave they will pay an exit fee to the ACC. Any GoR media rights value the ACC will sue for comes down the road. If Clemson and FSU are gone, immediately the ESPN Composition Clause kicks in and will kill the current media deal. The remaining ACC schools will not be getting $40 million annually, more like $27 million or less annually for the foreseeable future. The media contract will have to be renegotiated with Calford and SMU additions that only decrease the value. There is discussion among the Mag 7 to where the smart business decision may be to vote to dissolve. That would require 8 votes prior to June 30. I don't see how that happens given time constraints, but it's on multiple BOT discussion tables as are many other possibilities obviously.
The newest CFP agreement has a look-in clause for a reason as the networks know this game well. The ACC CFP payout will also be diminished when Clemson and FSU leave. At that point, the ACC is in a major financial conundrum.
I am sticking to my prediction that FSU has played its last game as a member of the ACC. They already have a P2 offer and are not going to wait for the courts to decide, this second part (P2 offer) I am positive about. The rumor of not being a 2024 member is being circulated through several avenues right now. Most of my intel comes from people working for the networks. But all anyone has to do is connect the realignment dots.
When I was told that FSU would play 2024 as an Independent, I truly thought these high paid execs were out of their mind. Now there is speculation that more than FSU will opt to do the same while all the ACC games already scheduled will still be played this fall. All this does sound absolutely crazy and I'm not buying it fully yet - the 2024 thing. Because I have no idea how teams trying to play Independent ball for a year factor into the entire picture. There are high level trusted people on the Clemson, FSU and Miami forums spouting the exact same thing while others refuse to believe it. Let's just say this is going to be a very interesting lead in before July gets here no matter what you believe.
If this is all wrong I'm going to actually feel better for at least this season. If not, the ACC is going to implode extremely fast. Just like the PAC 12.
Please do the math and make your own deductions as to what happens if FSU and Clemson announce they are out for 2024. I would love to continue to read other opinions. That's what a good forum like this is for even though my speculation is likely not well received input.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
All good
Sorry if I come across as too definitive. I don't know how else to counter such beyond mentioning in more than half my posts that its all speculation.
Hope you don't mind me sharing in the drama that has true football fans engulfed. Crazy stuff I never could have imagined.
But I do find it perplexing that there are many ACC fans and beyond that still cling to the belief that the ACC will remain in tact for the next 7 years or beyond and that ESPN will continue to pay the same rates whether top teams leave or not. Those people are not paying attention or are in denial. If the Pac 12, Texas/OU, and the new CFP agreement doesn't demonstrate what's happening I'm not sure what I can say that changes this archaic thinking until it's too late.
It's all going down before kickoff. We'll that's the speculation I'm buying.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
ESPN will pay less in a new ACC contract.
If you read other trusted journalists this info is available from numerous first hand sources. Not sure how many times I have to post everything, including what I type, is speculation.
If 2 teams, especially the Tier 1 members Clemson and FSU, leave the ACC then ESPN has the option to immediately renegotiate its ACC contract and avsolutely will for far less money moving forward. Even for 2024. Regardless of when they leave, the ACC payout is going to get significantly reduced. Calford and SMU only compounds the lesser value. Thought that would be common knowledge.
I'm actually a Knoxville Vol if that matters.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
This is what's odd.
It makes one ponder what ACC members really know about what's in that ESPN media contract signed a decade earlier.
I understand some of the composition clauses. But I don't think the national media is swift to report on the content that's available. The fact most main news sources are still quoting a GoR as running through 2036, when the world now knows that option has yet to be extended past 2026, is very odd. I chalk it up to a lack of investigative reporting.
If 2 teams leave the ACC the ESPN agreement is voided for 2024 and must be renegotiated by the league with any network they can. Why this composition clause is not being widely reported is anyone's guess. It certainly opens up a massive fire drill alarm. That's all I can say.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Great points
ESPN says it's fine for FSU to have a copy just so there is a protective order preventing FSU from making it public. But FSU can't agree to a protective order under Florida public record laws.
The issue has to be addressed under Florida law. Even if the parties agreed to keep it private does not matter. Once FSU or its lawyers see them, they are public. Right?
Trying to redact true trade secrets is fair. This seems to be more about saying the whole agreement is trade secret. The stuff on extentions and options are not trade secrets.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
More Devil
in the details...
What is in that ESPN contract with the ACC is going to be the end of it all. Once it's revealed all ACC members will be suing.
As I have mentioned, the fact ESPN has until Feb 2025 to sign the ACC media extension past 2026 on through 2036 was only discovered when FSU filed their lawsuit.
What's about to break the bank is that ESPN has already declined that extension. And none of the ACC members were notified. If what I just said is true and Clemson/FSU leaves the conference before June 30, the entire ESPN contract is voided for 2024. That's where the reference to dissolution has sprung. Better hope this is all wrong. Have at it.
"It's not what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just a'int so." - Mark Twain
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 3/31/2024, 1:20:03 AM
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Never heard that one
Not in the short term anyway. Never know what happens down the line. Teams like the ones you mention just got lucky to be where they are for inclusion from a football competitive viewpoint.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
VT in the P2
Yea, I think your questions are spot on. Nothing ever in writing. All behind the curtain talk. The SEC and ESPN cannot be in collusion despite their union when it comes to the ACC GoR.
The B1G and SEC will expand to 20 teams. That is at least what FOX wants. When the CFP details get ironed out much of the horse trading will be revealed. The Mag7 are all in discussions. That's not a rumor. Of course VT has been weighing a P2 option for well over a year like most. Those discussions and planning do not require an invite.
When the ACC dissolves, VT like everyone else will have a Plan A, B, C or D. But I think it is going to happen much quicker than any admins realized (see June 30) or at least before August 15. Just like with how the PAC 12 went down fast.
I believe there will be 6 ACC programs at least that end up in the P2 well before 2030 and VT will be one of them with UVA. That depends on several mitigating factors - academia not being one of them...
- the ability to fit into a high level compensation model for athletes
- the ability to pay anti-trust court settlements coming down the pike
Basically the usual money requirements.
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 3/30/2024, 2:11:31 AM
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
The Florida Sunshine laws don't work that way
Once FSU gains access to of any doc it is public info per all Florida Sunshine laws. That's what part of the hearing last week in Mecklenburg County was about - specifically this.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Composition Clauses
There are so many Compostion Clauses in the ACC/ESPN agreement. Why did the ACC bring in the Calford/SMU trio as full members to commence on June 30 would be a good place to start. If Clemson/FSU leaves before those new schools become full members the 2024 ESPN contract is voided. If that goes down the ACC will be on a fire drill.
There are an uncountable number of reasons why the ACC and ESPN are protecting the "Devil in The Details" of that contract. That is why the networks control it all.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Mag 7 in discussions with P2
Most everything you say seems on point.
However, the Mag 7 is having discussions with the P2 regarding inclusion - including VT. Which is really good news if you favor such a move. That should come as no surprise as all ACC members have weighed (or should have by now) just about every option.
6-8 ACC teams could be headed to the P2 much quicker than anyone could have realized. That part (the timing) is speculation - but entertaining and discussing the topic is happening moreso now than before. What the networks want is what the networks will get.
I am going to unfortunately post a podcast from Twitter X. I don't know this guy from Adam. Don't care if he gets clicks or not. Whatever. But when I was perusing X I took a listen. I don't know where everyone gets their so-called info but he is repeating verbatim what has been explained to me. Lots of this smoke right now. Speculate on your own. I mean, that is all realignment has ever been.
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 3/29/2024, 6:07:47 PM
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Clemson discovered the same
Things in the ESPN contract that are WHOA kind of stuff. And they don't even have more than 13 pages.
The courts are just theater and trying to force leverage for settlement exit fees and terms. FSU has already left the building and Clemson isn't far behind. All well before the 2025 season kicks off.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
It is
Caught me off guard as well when I was told this. I can't see it - FSU playing their 2024 schedule but as an Independent. That's where all sides could go scorched earth, if they aren't almost there already.
Could the ACC in that scenario tell FSU no one from our league is going to play you? Are those games contracted? In comparison, I have always said if the P2 wants to split away from the NCAA, then call the bluff. If you do it will be for all sports including NCAA Tourney time. There is always a hard hand to play if you want to play it.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
They still can't see it
If you read the FSU newest claim from Wed night you will see what they are arguing...that no one knows what is in the ESPN contract except ESPN and the ACC office - none of the ACC members know what it entails except for 13 pages of the 160 pages that were released with much redaction. So how can the court take anything the ACC claims as word.
In that ESPN contract, there are rumors of Swofford and his family making deals with Raycom that no members signed off on, that ESPN has composition clauses that void the entire contract...it's quite a list. But again I use the words speculation all the time. But there is a great deal of smoke.
ESPN has stepped in to protect the entire document as trade secret. The last thing they want is Discovery opening up that contract. That is where the settlements will begin and end. Along with the networks having their power. The P2 has its own power but is still at the mercy of the folks paying the bills - the networks.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
The ACC cord is about to be cut
I mentioned this in one of my posts yesterday. The newest legal response to Leon County Court included in writing that FSU was leaving (although most assumed this anyway). What is significant is that FSU will officially announce leaving before June 30 (when Calford/SMU become voting members). Good chance FSU will not be a member of the ACC for 2024 season. They will keep their schedule, as it's too late to change, but will not be playing it as a member of the league. In other words, they will not be eligible to compete for the ACC Championship or the AQ playoff bid that comes with it.
That info is speculation like everything else. But by 2025 season FSU will not be in the ACC regardless of what a court decides or waits to decide. That line of thinking was dumped once the Discovery process started and details started to emerge about the ESPN contract and what it entails. Clemson and FSU had seen enough. As an example, no ACC member was aware that ESPN had to extend that contract past 2026 until FSU filed the lawsuit. Both FSU and Clemson will no longer be following by-laws that they also claim the ACC is not following either. It's ugly, going to get uglier...someone just pulls the cord at this point instead of lawyers bickering for years.
Worst case scenario, in 2-4 more years the courts rule and the Clemson/FSU members of the league pay what they have to pay. But neither is waiting around in the ACC with P2 offers on the table. Even if it means giving up broadcast rights to their home games (which is quite possible). Six or more teams from the ACC will be leaving in that time span FWIW. It's my speculation (and I always use that term) that FOX wants certain deals done and it was all part of network bargaining to get the new CFP contract signed. Part of that FOX demand was more teams in the B1G.
FOX/ESPN will start their streaming subscription this August ($40 a month estimated). Be prepared...much like Peacock, a certain amount of games will only be available on their new platform.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
ND and the ACC
When the ACC loses x amount of teams the NBC contract loses too much value. They may well try to stay Independent but it wont be with the ACC schedule tie in.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Everybody does it theory
Every ACC member BOT has been planning realignment behind closed doors for far longer than the public knows.
Watching UNC complain from the beginning while they had been planning the same is common. VT no different.
FSU is out before 2024 kickoff regardless of what any court decides. Neither side will be following by-laws anymore.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
FWIW - ACC speculations
So much happening right now.
Alright, FSU has filed a new response today against the ACC in Leon County Court - Florida. It is accusing the ACC of deception and so much in more crooked claims, etc. It's getting ugly. The short of it reads that FSU has announced they are leaving officially through this response verbatim. FSU will be out before their first game in Ireland this season, they will finish the 2024 schedule as is but possibly not as an ACC member. I don't know what that could mean exactly in terms of ACC Championship Game stuff.
We all have sources. Most of the time even the sources speculate so take everything with a grain of salt. But here it goes..6-8 teams are going to bail from the ACC - headed to a P2 destination. FSU, Clemson, UNC and ND are gone. But others are now in discussion based on what FOX is asking for. We'll see. But I suspect VT higher ups should be talking and thinking P2 now. Fingers crossed. I want this to be correct. Again, as always there is so much talk...just sharing what I get told at the network levels.
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 3/28/2024, 4:33:51 PM
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Too many branches
So much to be decided before it can be proven the P2 works or how the rest outside that circle have to operate.
- House vs. NCAA settlements
- Title IX issues
- Athletic compensation models
- Transfer policies
- Athletes as employees "or not"
- Scholarships vs. NIL
The list goes on. Regardless, at some point the P2 will be making roughly $100 million more annually than those who are not P2. What that equates to down the road is anyone's guess with these issues above unsolved. The small market will still compete.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
FSU mismanaged its own office
That would be an understatement we both agree on.
What concerns me is that the new CFP agreement beyond 2025 isn't completed, only the distribution has been agreed upon. Not even the format is agreed upon as to 14 teams or 16 teams or whatever the number. Also the AQ situation is still open for debate. The P2 does not wish to have an ACC champion in the playoffs when the SEC has to play the likes of Alabama, Georgia Texas, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, etc. If 1999 was today, VT never would have played in a national championship game.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
FSU snub was bad for the ACC
Whether you agree with the FSU playoff snub or not, that was bad juju for the ACC.
When the undefeated conference champion, who also beat two of the highest level SEC opponents as non-con games, gets bounced out of the playoffs by two P2 teams with one loss, the ACC was done for FSU. If this happened at VT, they would have run to every microphone and webpage screaming. I wouldn't blame them.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Assumptions go both directions
No different from the fantasy that if ESPN doesn't extend the contract past 2026, the ACC can renegotiate another deal and hold Clemson/FSU to that deal for another 10 years.
Settlements have ways of working out what a courtroom can't enforce. To think FSU/Clemson is going to pay half a billion to get out, then 4 months later UNC is going get their share and then exit for half that is not justifiable on a forum or in the courtroom.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Clemson and FSU are leaving
Speaking of fantasy...no disrespect intended, but watching fans of ACC schools hold on to a belief that the P2 is not going to add the larger market ACC schools is like watching European countries hold on to a belief that Hitler is done expanding past Poland despite continuing to build the world's largest arsenal of soldiers, tanks, planes and weapons.
The P2 doesn't wish to compete against other conferences, they bought it all and the market is still open.
Clemson and FSU are leaving. They are not going through this process without knowing where they land. If the court doesn't process it soon enough they will pay the fee agreed to in settlement and split.
There are absolutely claw back clauses and non-compete clauses and non-disclosure clauses in almost every settlement. FSU is not interested in paying an absorbent amount of money so other schools can use it to pay to get out at a lesser fee. I would have thought that just to be common knowledge.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
The ACC is Tier 2 football making Tier 2 football money
1) It's gotten so bad that even their undefeated champion gets dumped out of a four team playoff behind two one loss teams from the P2.
2) They voted to take a far lesser CFP agreement financially.
3) They went out and added three small market teams for all sports from all the way out to the Pacific Coast and one from Texas to make sure small market teams who don't make money vote to make sure teams that do make money walk the line.
4) They have made moves without taking membership votes
5) They hid the fact the ESPN agreement had to be extended past 2026 to where only a lawsuit discovered the info, then got upset that info was revealed.
6) etc., etc.,
I would call that destroyed sitting in Clemson and Tallahassee. But that's the view from the other side.
It's so bad that the worst case scenario for FSU is that ESPN extends the contract to 2036. The Seminoles sit in the ACC for two more seasons, then pay the exit fee + whatever GoR media rights value the court determines though 2036. If it turns out to be in excess of $300-$400 million, they pay it and go to the P2 forever. The ACC teams collect their big paycheck and spend life in a Tier 2 league making $60-$100 million less per season.
If FSU has to pay that type of money to get out, there will be claw back options that require any other team leaving to pay the same or redistribute that money back to FSU.
Please don't get upset because that is my take from the FSU/Clemson side. If I were a non-Mag 7 team, I fight tooth and nail to make that exit fee hurt. At the same time I hypocritically work behind the scenes to find options in the P2 myself. But it doesn't stop the inevitable. FSU and Clemson are leaving. When and how much it costs, not if.
IMHO, the irony is that at some point Virginia Tech is going to scramble to get out of the ACC much like UVA as a matter of big league survival. It could easily be the SMU, Cal, Wake Forest and BC schools that do all they can to make it impossible and painful. The world turns...
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Discovery
What is in the ESPN/ACC media agreements?
The fact ACC members cannot see those dealings is actually quite disturbing. It was only by FSU filing a lawsuit that the world became aware of ESPN needing to extend the deal past 2026. ESPN is fighting along side with the ACC to seal those factoids.
The Clemson lawsuit seeks this information in addition to declaratory judgements. Discovery and be a b**ch. This is what most of these preliminary hearings are about - Discovery and Venue. We have not even gotten to the GoR nitty gritty.
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 3/22/2024, 1:17:21 PM
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Courtrooms in the US
Jokingly, knowing which bathroom to use is up for the courts to decide. Each side makes their case. The whole country is in court. I should have studied law, not business to get rich. LOL.
There are two sides to what you state. If I rent a house out under contract and the person living there has destroyed the property through various means, yes we go to court to void the contract.
In 2016 when the network deal changed for the ACC, a new GoR had to be agreed to. Just citing past relevance.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
ACC vs. FSU in court today
For those legal eagles who can translate, @RowhanLaw is covering the initial court case in Mecklenburg County today via twitter.
This is just a first step on a long journey. The arguments over venue are on the table mostly along with sealing documents. The substantial material won't be discussed for some time. Both sides have made some great legal arguments. Interesting at the least.
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 3/22/2024, 12:49:40 PM
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Behind the network curtain
The aspect nobody (even the Sankey, Petitti and Phillips of the world) can be sure of is exactly what the networks are doing behind the curtain. It's now public that in both the amended two-year agreement and new six-year extension, the CFP provides ESPN with the right to sublicense a select number of playoff games. FOX and NBC are in those discussions. I mean, even FOX and ESPN have partnered for a new streaming service. Not to sound repetitive, but there is so much horse trading going on right now to where business will decide the ACC fate more so than the courts.
I made the statement late last night that UNC and NC State have received an offer from the SEC. That doesn't mean they are legally available to accept at this point, but the offer is there. Just personal speculation based on what I've been told from a government view and really what info is available. Just do the math. What the UNC BOT chair just stated was fact and to the point. Doesn't take a genius to know where the this is headed when money is the root of it all.
Sometimes all these legal issues make it difficult to see through the forest. The bottom line is that the higher tier ACC programs are not going to leave themselves outside the big boy table, no matter the initial cost. If you are not dealing in P2 money, you can't afford to field (pay) the same teams in any sport.
Appreciate this discussion :)