Asking the VT faithful on this board. There are reports that
the Mag 7 are in meetings again, or continuing discussions. With 2 of the mag 7 public with their lawsuits, and 8 votes needed to dissolve the conference, what are the chances that they find that 8th vote, and form their own conference until the P2 contracts are renegotiated? Or sooner still, when the 2028 look in for playoff money is visited?
You take the Mag 7 and include ND (or another), they could actually make more money than the current ACC, as their content would almost assuredly be picked up. You do this while the courts determine the GOR with the ACC as that would be expedited, and not dragged out for years.
With the ACC contract renewal coming up, what are the chances that the new league gets that media money, and retains their playoff cut? At that point, a league like that could be attractive enough to pull a few B12 teams as these media contracts come up for the next round.
FSU and Clemson currently have nothing to lose. They are leaving, they are just negotiating the price. If ESPN comes in with a reduced media contact because of these developments, what interest would VT have in signing on to a weakened ACC (and contract) till 2036? Or any of the Mag7?
If that were to happen, Duke and Pitt would be begging to get into the B12, and where all of the Mag 7 schools land would be determined in the new B12, BIG, and SEC contract negotiations. Or better yet, the new conference becomes new ACC, and we retain a "P4". I would watch that league, and ND isn't stuck playing Wake or SMU unless they want too.
37 Replies
You know what? If the Pac12 can vaporize, the ACC can vaporize
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
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VTCALS72
2y
Now if all 7 have landing spots in the P2 and Pitt and Lville have landing spots in the XII, then it would happen.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
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lawhokie
2y
Both outstanding academically, located in a city with an airport. If GT could only have managed to fill that stadium they would be golden.
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
2y
Probably more prestigious academically, but in terms of sports fans they are like Cincinnati; their fan dominance ends at the end of their campus.
Even in suburbs of Pittsburgh, PSU is dominant. I do not even remember seeing GT stuff even in Atlanta - I think UGA owns the state so completely...
(In response to this post by lawhokie)
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TerryD
2y
"Brand" is another word for "viewers".
If a school doesn't have enough TV viewers to add more than $75 million a year to a P2 coffers, then that school is not getting a P2 invitation.
(In response to this post by lawhokie)
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VTCALS72
2y
Pittsburgh's heart belongs to the Steelers and Atlanta's heart belongs to the Bulldogs.
(In response to this post by lawhokie)
2y
my personal opinion. What I do know, is that no one wants to be stuck in a conference with a lower offer from ESPN because the top 2-4 teams are leaving. P2 invite or not, no one wants to make less money than they are currently.
I don't know what ESPN is thinking with that contract, and more importantly, none of us knows the wording of that contract. Everything hinges on the ESPN contract now, and in the future - not the GOR like we have all been led to believe is iron clad.
Release the full contract to the schools that are affected so that they can make their own determination. This idea that the schools aren't privy to that information is mind blowing.
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
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VTCALS72
2y
To get 8 votes, at least 7 have to have P2 invites, then those who bail to the XII will join in.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
2y
it stinks that the B12 and ACC contracts didn’t align with one another- the best of both conferences would be ideal in this environment, but both conferences have some brands that don’t bring much value to the table.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
An easier way to do this is to form a mini-relegation and promotion system
within the ACC. The top tier would get a winner's TV cut, closer to P2 money. The loser's would play in a second tier and get closer to G5 money. But every school would have a chance to get into the top tier based on performance. This way, basketball stays together, the ACCN stays on the air, and better football matchups.
By the way, this could be a model for the B1G and the SEC to follow in the future.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
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hokieZ71
2y
It will most likely be announced in late June this summer. This is over. What happens to the remaining ACC teams will be determined by the contract ESPN offers them in 2027 and beyond, much like the PAC 12. Depending on how much less it is than the current $$, the P2 (at bargain prices) and Big XII will pick up the best football brands and this will be done.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
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INSIDE99
2y
Most everything you say seems on point.
However, the Mag 7 is having discussions with the P2 regarding inclusion - including VT. Which is really good news if you favor such a move. That should come as no surprise as all ACC members have weighed (or should have by now) just about every option.
6-8 ACC teams could be headed to the P2 much quicker than anyone could have realized. That part (the timing) is speculation - but entertaining and discussing the topic is happening moreso now than before. What the networks want is what the networks will get.
I am going to unfortunately post a podcast from Twitter X. I don't know this guy from Adam. Don't care if he gets clicks or not. Whatever. But when I was perusing X I took a listen. I don't know where everyone gets their so-called info but he is repeating verbatim what has been explained to me. Lots of this smoke right now. Speculate on your own. I mean, that is all realignment has ever been.
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 3/29/2024, 6:07:47 PM
Link:
Realignment Updates
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
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Marooned
2y
They can’t be in writing or the conferences would be opening themselves up to claims of tortuous interference. If they are handshakes, then the university presidents are opening themselves up to claims of malfeasance for breaking off from the ACC if it all goes south.
All this presumes that one or both of the P2 conferences have it worked out that it makes logistical and financial sense to add all these programs. I’m still very skeptical about this Mag 7 reporting. Any chance that this is just a rumor?
(In response to this post by INSIDE99)
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INSIDE99
2y
Yea, I think your questions are spot on. Nothing ever in writing. All behind the curtain talk. The SEC and ESPN cannot be in collusion despite their union when it comes to the ACC GoR.
The B1G and SEC will expand to 20 teams. That is at least what FOX wants. When the CFP details get ironed out much of the horse trading will be revealed. The Mag7 are all in discussions. That's not a rumor. Of course VT has been weighing a P2 option for well over a year like most. Those discussions and planning do not require an invite.
When the ACC dissolves, VT like everyone else will have a Plan A, B, C or D. But I think it is going to happen much quicker than any admins realized (see June 30) or at least before August 15. Just like with how the PAC 12 went down fast.
I believe there will be 6 ACC programs at least that end up in the P2 well before 2030 and VT will be one of them with UVA. That depends on several mitigating factors - academia not being one of them...
- the ability to fit into a high level compensation model for athletes
- the ability to pay anti-trust court settlements coming down the pike
Basically the usual money requirements.
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 3/30/2024, 2:11:31 AM
(In response to this post by Marooned)
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daveinop
2y
to be oriented around the possibility of ESPN walking away. Otherwise why would Mag 7 folks support adding members?
Could they form their own conference? Sure, and I'd be for it.
** Edited by daveinop at 3/29/2024, 5:55:11 PM
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
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Truthahn
2y
I'd like to include GT, too, as the eighth.
That MAG7 would have great schedules, and honestly would be equal in value to the P2 on a per member basis.
It would also have the world's best sports and media contract lawyers. No one would trust each other! At the least, I would expect FSU to demand a bigger share, however, and screw it up, unfortunately.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
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lawhokie
2y
All sports:
VT
UVa
UNC
NCSU
Georgia Tech
Clemson
FSU
Miami
Ask Notre Dame to play six conference games to gain eligibility for the ACCCG (but still call them independent)
Try to entice Duke and Syracuse to stay in for basketball, lacrosse, etc. but no football, at a drastically reduced payout. Wake, Louisville, et al., bye bye.
I like Pitt for all sports, but I wouldn’t die on that hill if it came down to sacrificing Pitt to maintain the league.
** Edited by lawhokie at 3/29/2024, 5:16:45 PM
(In response to this post by Truthahn)
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Marooned
2y
B12 would snatch them up along with Pitt and Louisville for their BB pedigrees and to bolster their east coast presence.
(In response to this post by lawhokie)
2y
Conference would be a step down from the current ACC. And nobody's going to set up a temporary network for a temporary conference. The only way I see to get eight votes to dissolve the ACC is to get eight invitations to the P2. No temporary conference needed, just transition to your new P2 conference. The reason to dissolve the ACC and form a new conference, would be an attempt to get a better financial deal than the ACC by forming a conference without the teams at the bottom of the conference. I think that only works if the P2 conferences are not interested in inviting ACC schools to join.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
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Truthahn
2y
Get seven to vote to dissolve, along with ND as the eighth. Then have a draft between the P2's for where everyone goes.
I'd rather go with the MAG7 plus GT, though.
(In response to this post by wwhokie1)
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TerryD
2y
It wants the ACC to survive in some form after the departures of FSU, Clemson and North Carolina.
That is why it pushed for the additions of SMU, Cal and Stanford.
ND doesn't want to join the Big Ten. It has strived mightily for 30 years to avoid doing that, P2 universe now or not.
It wants to remain a football independent and a viable ACC helps with that a lot.
In fact, a revised ACC without North Carolina but with more private schools suits ND just fine.
ND would have more political power in the ACC with those three schools gone, especially the Tar Heels.
** Edited by TerryD at 3/30/2024, 12:31:17 PM
(In response to this post by Truthahn)
2y
(In response to this post by Truthahn)
2y
join/vote separation? Will the Mag7 just get another team and then not be willing to schedule ND in the future? This may put ND in a bind for all sports/scheduling in the future.
(In response to this post by wwhokie1)
2y
with this, it's time to go to the B12. Kinda like Colorado did to Oregon and Washington when it was clear that they would bolt as soon as they got an invite.
(In response to this post by 132863Hokie)
S
Stech
2y
they would be a good fit for the B12. Cincinnati, WVU, UCF and a B12 presence in Texas. Not to mention Kansas and K State.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
2y
Scheduling. If the ACC dissolves, several of those teams are going to the P2. Notre Dame is left looking for a conference for their non-football schools. Notre Dame wants the ACC to stay together in some form.
** Edited by wwhokie1 at 3/29/2024, 9:38:44 PM
(In response to this post by 132863Hokie)
2y
who wins the litigation, it just puts the timetable out a few years. It appears that with the 3 additions, the ACC is trying to run out the clock until it becomes more difficult to dissolve the conference.
If this were to happen, it will be by June 30th, and the clock is ticking.
(In response to this post by wwhokie1)
2y
It is a basketball school and the Big East is a fine basketball conference.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
2y
same conference would be too cool.
(In response to this post by OrlandoHokie)
2y
Not doubting that there are "reports," but I'd like to see them.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
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baumerj
2y
I'm not a big fan of this guy, but he did mention that the Mag 7 is talking again. I'm just not sure if he's speculating or not.
(In response to this post by Will Stewart)
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Stech
2y
(In response to this post by Will Stewart)
2y
dismiss it. I thought it was common knowledge.
(In response to this post by Stech)