I’m starting to get the feeling FSU/Clemson is more about shrinking the ACC
The PAC 12 was killed to get rid of 4 pieces of dead weight. Oregon St, Wash St, Stanford and Cal. The Big XII followed their MO and picked up solid pieces in the 4 corners, increasing their hoops rep with Arizona. Even though it’s an overall reduction in prestige from losing TX and OU, the B12 is still solid.
I am also having a hard time envisioning the SEC and B1G adding many more schools. The space in the P2 (and B12) is filling up and, most importantly, the money pool is drying up. The B1G has the richest contract and Oregon and Washington were forced to take ACC-level payouts for 6 years. This with the uncertainty of what the next contracts will look like.
I am starting to see that ND is going to remain independent for the rest of our lifetimes. They will make it work and the major conferences will acquiesce. So, the whole “ND and team X from the ACC gets added to the B1G” thing probably is not going to materialize.
Now back to us:
The ACC added two pieces of PAC 12 dead weight to the 4 pieces they already had. So, more dead weight has to go. So, you look at the ACC’s current dead weight. Wake Forest, Boston College, Syracuse and Duke (sorry, but that Duke football program is not grandfathered into the P2 the way Vandy and Northwestern are). Then you add Stanford and Cal. You know, those 6 schools sure do seem to have a lot in common. Academic prestige. Lots of private schools. Great non rev sports programs. Very poor football followings. We call these schools the “Private ACC” I’m not sure how SMU gets sorted here, but I’m leaning Private ACC.
There are 10 ACC schools that could gain a lot by being unaffiliated with these programs moving forwards. We call the schools the Breakaway ACC. (Remember the Breakaway Big East?? Lol). ESPN would lose basically nothing by dropping those 6-7 schools from their football TV matchups on a weekly basis. And CFP isn’t giving the ACC a dime for the same 6 programs. The CFP $$ is for FSU, Clemson and Miami, and the 10-12 national championships they possess. (Yes, VT played for a title 25 years ago. It doesn’t matter to the CFP. Except for the fanbase it helped build that allows VT football to be profitable and a compelling football matchup for FSU, Clemson and Miami).
So, the money. Let’s say ESPN reduces the Breakaway ACC payout by $100M so they have something to offer the Private ACC. $488 million divided by 10 is $48.8M per school. 13.7% of the CFP $$ divided by 10 is $19M. So…$67M per school for the football Breakaway ACC. That works.
This is a path for FSU and Clemson to get money more on par with the SEC and B1G without joining them. I would have to think that would be acceptable to them. This also allows the Breakaway ACC to entice WVU and/or Cincinnati in the future if so inclined, due to superior revenue compared to the B12.
The Private ACC then gets the $100M leftover from ESPN ($14-$15M per school) Then maybe looks to add a UConn, Tulane, USF to their ranks. The Breakaway ACC also leaves their NCAA Basketball units to the Private ACC. Thats 6 years of good money. Altogether, the Breakaway ACC does more for the Private ACC than the PAC 8 left to Stanford, Cal, Oregon St and Washington St.
So, the way it is all going down. FSU and Clemson poke all kind of holes in the GOR with their lawsuits (still find that hard to believe, but whatevs…). ESPN now magically has a “lookin” in less than a calendar year where they could sink the ACC media rights deal. Wtf?!?! How does that just pop up out of nowhere when the ACC was supposedly locked in for 12 more years?? I don’t believe in coincidences and those two things aren’t coincidences. The ACC is either getting killed or reborn. Being reborn could be much neater than getting killed.
So, back to the Stanford/Cal/SMU thing. Why vote yes if you want to leave, Mag 7? This could have been a parting gift to Duke and Wake by NCState and UNC, sponsored by ND (UNC can vote yes by voting no, they’ve done it before). This was mentioned back when it happened and may have some merit. ND not joining the P2 helps Breakaway ACC teams not guaranteed a P2 spot. Period. So, ND has their desired prestigious connection with Duke, Stanford, BC, Syracuse and Cal. (ND will not be contractually obligated to the football centric breakaway.) They can play 4-5 games against those Private ACC schools and still build a power schedule to get in the Top 10 every year they have a solid coach. The Private ACC gets a football contract with ND. That’s good for them.
IDK, seems to make a lot of sense. Although, it also makes sense for FSU, UNC, UVA and Clemson to go to the SEC, while Miami and GT go to the Big Ten, the CFP shifts payouts away from the remaining ACC teams in 2028 and VT winds up in the B12 with WVU, NC State, Pitt and Louisville. Then the same 10 teams end up in the P2 + B12 🤷♂️
** Edited by hokieZ71 at 3/31/2024, 10:22:33 AM
19 Replies
V
Vippie1
2y
can they really approach the P2 revs? So less is more in schools.
8-10 max. FSU CU Miami UNC NCSU UVa VT (pitt? SU? Louisville? GT? WVU?)
can you get to an annual nut big enough to get FSU to go along?
can ND still have a package of games with the breakaway?
can the rest of the ACC be "saved" somehow- for non-football sports?
(In response to this post by hokieZ71)
I
INSIDE99
2y
If Clemson and FSU leave they will pay an exit fee to the ACC. Any GoR media rights value the ACC will sue for comes down the road. If Clemson and FSU are gone, immediately the ESPN Composition Clause kicks in and will kill the current media deal. The remaining ACC schools will not be getting $40 million annually, more like $27 million or less annually for the foreseeable future. The media contract will have to be renegotiated with Calford and SMU additions that only decrease the value. There is discussion among the Mag 7 to where the smart business decision may be to vote to dissolve. That would require 8 votes prior to June 30. I don't see how that happens given time constraints, but it's on multiple BOT discussion tables as are many other possibilities obviously.
The newest CFP agreement has a look-in clause for a reason as the networks know this game well. The ACC CFP payout will also be diminished when Clemson and FSU leave. At that point, the ACC is in a major financial conundrum.
I am sticking to my prediction that FSU has played its last game as a member of the ACC. They already have a P2 offer and are not going to wait for the courts to decide, this second part (P2 offer) I am positive about. The rumor of not being a 2024 member is being circulated through several avenues right now. Most of my intel comes from people working for the networks. But all anyone has to do is connect the realignment dots.
When I was told that FSU would play 2024 as an Independent, I truly thought these high paid execs were out of their mind. Now there is speculation that more than FSU will opt to do the same while all the ACC games already scheduled will still be played this fall. All this does sound absolutely crazy and I'm not buying it fully yet - the 2024 thing. Because I have no idea how teams trying to play Independent ball for a year factor into the entire picture. There are high level trusted people on the Clemson, FSU and Miami forums spouting the exact same thing while others refuse to believe it. Let's just say this is going to be a very interesting lead in before July gets here no matter what you believe.
If this is all wrong I'm going to actually feel better for at least this season. If not, the ACC is going to implode extremely fast. Just like the PAC 12.
Please do the math and make your own deductions as to what happens if FSU and Clemson announce they are out for 2024. I would love to continue to read other opinions. That's what a good forum like this is for even though my speculation is likely not well received input.
(In response to this post by hokieZ71)
M
Marooned
2y
Don’t Sleep on SMU. They are wealthy and motivated. So I don’t believe that adding these schools was any kind of philanthropic gesture.
If the conference implodes, which will be decided soon, I’m not sure what to think about this possibility. It is more likely that FSU and CU wind up in the B1G, and the SEC is left to decide if they want to pick up UNC with NCSU thrown in or not. I do think that VT is perhaps their most compelling addition if FSU and CU are off the board, culturally and economically. Do we tie our fate to UVa in that scenario?
We shall see.
(In response to this post by hokieZ71)
2y
I believe the Big Ten really wants to get into the southeast. And the SEC really wants to keep them out.
** Edited by Millpoint at 3/31/2024, 9:15:23 PM
** Edited by Millpoint at 3/31/2024, 9:17:51 PM
(In response to this post by hokieZ71)
2y
Will a modern day Robert Toombs say of Jim Phillips, “the man and the hour have met”?
(In response to this post by hokieZ71)
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lawhokie
2y
Years ago, by adding Pitt, VT, and Miami, and maybe WVU, and telling Wake and Duke (and everybody else) that they have 3 years to meet certain attendance goals for football or they will be ejected from the football slate, and lose their share of the football pie.
Or tell everybody that the top twelve schools in attendance remain football members. Wake and Duke would most likely lose that battle, and it would create a real emphasis on football.
Then bring in Notre Dame under whatever terms they want. Five football games / year is enough. Let them play in the ACCCG - who cares?
When you boil out the fat you have 12 schools that are members for all sports and you do your best to lock them down with high network payouts.
** Edited by lawhokie at 3/31/2024, 7:24:40 PM
** Edited by lawhokie at 3/31/2024, 7:28:18 PM
(In response to this post by hokieZ71)
V
VTCALS72
2y
Think again. I am firmly of the believe that the PAC refused to consider what their "new" lane was so they would not get in it. That was not supposed to happen but since it did big media had 6 teams they had a future place for so they "placed" 4 in the XII and 2 in the ACC.
I do not believe that either the ACC nor the XII have any power to be pro active but are pretty much taking orders from big media. And I believe the current big media "vision" is just about all the money to the P2 with a little for a new equally paid mid level group of the new PAC based on AZ, AZ S. Colorado, Utah and maybe even BYU along with Standford and Cal plus O St and Was. St. A new XII losing 4 to the Pac and possibly 2 (UCF and WVU) to the ACC + SMU and Tulane and maybe a couple more. The "new ACC will possibly be the non mag 7, VT, UVA, NCSU, GT and maybe Miami plus the 3 from the XII.
This mid level will produce all their content for regional streaming and the big media may cherry pick and buy and broadcast some content as they need it. The mid level will also be the "farm teams" of the P2 for portal players and for coaches.
(In response to this post by hokieZ71)
H
HouClone
2y
without Big 10 / SEC money. Plus, 2-3 hours apart is going to limit viewership. PAC and ACC had a year to figure a merger out and couldn't - and that is with large brands Oregon, Washington, Clemson, and FSU in the fold.
** Edited by HouClone at 3/31/2024, 6:07:43 PM
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
V
VTCALS72
2y
That is also why I think the mid level will have to be as tightly compact regional as possible.
(In response to this post by HouClone)
R
ren_hoek
2y
UVa, VT, UNC, NCSU, Clemson, GT, FSU, Miami, Louisville, maybe Pitt if we can get WVU to go with them. Nearly every game will be a rivalry with some history and delicious hate.
(In response to this post by hokieZ71)
2y
(In response to this post by hokieZ71)
2y
Hypothesis. if the following is all true / comes to pass:
1) there is no near term demand for FSU, CU, UNC from the P2 conferences 2) the net payouts for the football/public breakaway schools go up, but the net payout by ESPN for the totality of the 2 groups does not change 3) the football group agrees to lock up for a number of years, to give it some stability from poaching 4) ESPN can actually terminate the current media deal and initiate this reorganization as suggested.
(In response to this post by hokieZ71)
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Hokie83
2y
and UM is no giving they will either...
(In response to this post by hokieZ71)
2y
Miami is the same...... Miami as the money and budget
No matter what GT location is, they are in debt real bad, limited athletic budget. One of the lowest in the ACC.
What the Big 10 did to really subsidize MD and Rutgers, was a 1 off... IT got the big FOX contract and market. (all can disgree, but the financial guys in the big 10 and fox agreed). They won't do that again.
SEC not going to subsidize anyone. Programs have to bring it on and step it up.
(In response to this post by Hokie83)
2y
Lol
** Edited by hokieZ71 at 3/31/2024, 2:40:30 PM
(In response to this post by Hokie83)
I don't think there are enough football-centric schools in the ACC to make
a good enough break-away conference that would produce enough money to do this, and
TBH, FSU and Clemson are the only ones with the cachet to start such a movement, and I don't think that's where they are headed with this. I've said it here before, but I think VT is the third best football program in the ACC. But we aren't at FSU-Clemson top shelf level. But I think we have more in common with them than the wine and cheese ACC traditional ACC crowd.
Interesting post though.
(In response to this post by hokieZ71)
V
VPI 1924
2y
What makes you think VT is not dead weight???
(In response to this post by hokieZ71)