INSIDE99
I
Posting History (223)
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
The GoR has always been tied to the ESPN deals
The 2013 and 2016 GoR are tied to the ESPN agreement. When the GoR was created in 2013 a new contract was formed. When they extended the agreement and added the ACC Network in 2016, they had to do another GoR. Renegotiating or revising the current deal would be a brand new contract, which means the old GoR is void and a new one is required.
The media rights contract with ESPN is locked away from being read by all ACC members. So no one knows exactly what the details are for certain, but changing the financial details and forcing everyone to abide by them seems an insane and unjustifiable read of the GoR.
Then again, as you can see from the lawsuits, the GoR reads differently depending on which side you reside. However, getting a new media rights deal is not going to hold up in court as the same contract.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Repeat reporting
This article is just regurgitating what's already been reported multiple times. Not sure why anyone would quote that the GOR runs through 2036. Until ESPN extends the deal it runs through 2026.
UNC is going to file suit to get out and they won't be the only one.
Clemson and FSU, who already have a landing spot in the P2, will be out before the 2026 season.
Notre Dame is going to bail and lock in with the B1G in some form or another.
At that point it's a scramble to get out, if it is not apparent already.
The higher end football programs are not going to sit in a conference for 13 more years that has agreed to half of what their competitors are making, especially when paying athletes is at the crux of success.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Disburse money based on wins
That's how it's usually done. The lower tier teams have no interest in letting Clemson/FSU make money off their investments. That's the whole problem.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Carolina BOT Chair Calls for ACC Transparency
This about sums up what realignment is about -- small market vs. large market. And what it all means moving forward in a new age of college sports and paying athletes. I will be surprised if UNC does not file the next lawsuit to exit the ACC. BOT Chair John Preyer points out that Clemson has a problem with not being able to see the details of the media contracts. It's one of the same issues FSU has been trying to resolve. But ESPN and the ACC does not wish to divulge those details. Discovery is half the battle.
"I think that what Clemson is doing is 100 percent proof positive that a significant portion of the membership of the conference is unhappy,β UNC Board of Trustees chair John Preyer told Inside Carolina on Wednesday. βI don't see how it is in anyone's interest for the ACC leadership to try and browbeat its member schools from getting access to information and being transparent. And that's kind of the case Clemson is making.
"I think this shows that what is supposed to be a member-based organization is not being led in a way that represents the best interests of all the members, but instead, it's really representing the bottom tier of the membership at the expense of the top tier, which is why Clemson and Florida State are doing what they're doing. I think that's just obvious."
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Everyone IS speculating
Including Greg Sankey, Jim Phillips, ESPN, the ACC, lawyers, etc., etc.
In regards to ACC realignment and lawsuits, it's to the point where every person is trying to interpret the GOR. Depends on who is reading it as to what it contractually means. So even that is speculation, even by very high priced attorneys.
UNC will also file a lawsuit, soon. Yes, I am speculating based on current events.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
GOR media rights through 2036
So how does the cost to exit the ACC involve media rights through 2036?
The ACC didn't just come up with a year like 2036 out of the blue. They are tied into the ESPN contract that runs through 2036.
In other words, what is the value of someone's media rights through 2036 if ESPN doesn't agree to renew past 2026?
Yes, the GOR is absolutely tied into a media rights contract. The actual exit fee, which is three times the ACC operating budget...not tied into ESPN.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
The GOR and ESPN deal are tied together
This is a much simplified form of what TV networks choose to do:
Does ESPN/FOX/NBC make more money with FSU, Clemson and Notre Dame in the P2 or in the ACC?
The answer is what ESPN will do in regards to extending the ACC contract past 2026. Capt. Obvious - "money is the driving force".
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 3/20/2024, 2:33:48 PM
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
The GOR rights fee is not shareable
for those who remain in the ACC. ESPN would get that funding. The disbursements to ACC schools under the ESPN agreement remain the same. In short, if the GOR is proved to be enforceable, FSU/Clemson would have to pay to get their rights back from ESPN. Now the exit fee instituted by the ACC itself is not part of those media rights.
Otherwise, other ACC members looking to leave would be wise to wait, then use the money FSU/Clemson paid to pay their own exit fees. LOL
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 3/20/2024, 2:28:50 PM
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Yes everyone is speculating **
Yes everyone is speculating. I just assumed that went without saying.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Listen to the money talk, this is a business decision for all the networks
Reading the Clemson lawsuit does answer questions as to how the GOR can be interpreted. The timing of the filing was purposeful. Again, ESPN and FOX have the say in ACC realignment...not the ACC or court litigation.
When Jim Phillips signed off on the new playoff payout scheme, the die was cast. There is absolutely no reason the ACC, as a power five conference, should accept an extreme lesser percentage of the playoff revenue from ESPN than other conferences. That alone is a deal breaker. The ACC leadership failed to uphold its fiduciary duty to the member schools.
FSU and Clemson are leaving and already have a landing spot. This will happen long before 2036 and will not cost $500 million. No provisions to show you on that statement. Just common sense.
Also of note, in both the amended two-year agreement and new six-year extension, the CFP provides ESPN with the right to sublicense a select number of games. The horse trading is ongoing. Realignment is on the table. Having FSU, Clemson, ND, UNC in the P2 is worth more to ESPN/FOX/NBC than if they stay in the ACC. If you want to see those charts they are available everywhere. This is a business decision for the networks. Money drives it all. Listen to the money talk.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
CFP agreement will reveal much
A few of those provisions have already been posted here. They are in the Clemson lawsuit.
The Clemson lawsuit differs from the FSU lawsuit in that more of the ACC/ESPN Agreement has now been made available - something FSU has been trying to reveal through Discovery. Although much of what is now provided in that contract has been redacted in the Clemson lawsuit filed today. Clemson read it.
As some have speculated in regards to what the actual ESPN agreement states, the GOR can be waived by Fox and ESPN per the CFP agreement announced Friday (much more to come on those CFP agreements). If the purpose and basis for a claimed $500M exit fee is to lock in teams in order to comply with the GOR - that whole basis seems to fall apart now. So it's not a penalty but "media rights" - the ACC doesn't own those rights. The networks control realignment, not the ACC. Deals have already been cut between the networks. Clemson and FSU already have a P2 landing spot. Those deals were already in place with the conferences and the networks.
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 3/19/2024, 3:44:08 PM
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Clemson no Coincidence = CFP
The fact Clemson filed this lawsuit immediately after the CFP agreement was signed is no coincidence.
The ACC is contractually limited from stopping additional realignment. The ACC has now effectively lost the ability to "control" any school leaving the conference for the P2. The SEC and B1G are in charge of any future additions without regard to any other conference agreements.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
FSU and CLEMSON already have a P2 landing spot
Those deals are already brokered.
That's why both have now filed while other ACC programs have not yet. You don't spend large sums of money to try and exit a conference unless you know where you can land. No school is trying to buy their way out to be an Independent or go to the Big XII.
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 3/19/2024, 2:54:43 PM
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
ESPN decisions on hold
The ACC/ESPN contract is set to expire in 2036. But ESPN has to renew that contract past the 2026 season and has until Feb 2025 to renew that option. Why they have not yet has led to much speculation that only ESPN can answer. Who gave ESPN that option to extend is under litigation among many other issues.
If ESPN does not renew, FSU would likely play in the ACC for 2024 and 2025 and then bounce. At that point they would owe the exit fee plus only one year of media rights. Somewhere around $100-$120 million.
Most inside circles know FSU is out. Likely through settlement. It's all speculation, even from the original source. But no way is FSU stuck in the ACC through 2036 given the disparity in revenue distribution. That will equal top level football death.
At that point it's a race to get into the P2 for those who can.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Like VT scheduling in 1999
Product of weak Big East scheduling and poor non-con opponents. Most everyone complained outside of Blacksburg.
In other words, if teams are not in the Big Ten or SEC, they got there on weak schedules. Something the SEC has cried about endlessly to present when one of their teams is left out. It only gets worse from here.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Is everyone OK with the CFP set up for 2024 and 2025?
4 Conference Champions, 1 G5 Champion and 7 at-large bids. Not sure how much more fair that can be.
VT has as good a post-season shot in that scenario than they do in the P2 the next two seasons. If I have any reservations, it's that the ACC is never getting two playoff participants. But as history has shown, if you can't win the ACC you probably don't deserve a bid anyway.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
If the P2 splits, it will be for all sports
I agree with DMV.
Go ahead and split, do your own football playoff. But do it for all sports.
See what happens. Call their bluff now or forever hold your peace as a second tier football league.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
FSU is leaving the ACC
The only question is how much they have to pay. They will be out before the 2026 season if not sooner.
Yes, the Noles have signed a GoR contract. But now they have filed for a divorce and the courts are not invested in forcing a couple to remain together. The old adage...why was the divorce so expensive? Because it was worth it...is so true.
FSU wants to invest and compete in national titles. The ACC literally just got told on Dec 3 (CFP selection Sunday) the league is second tier. Even with FSU in the league. The P2 will be making more than double what the ACC gets paid. Who wants to deal with that BS though 2036?
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Private Equity - Blue Heron Capital Hokies
California Tax Revenue. Hahaha, that's funny because it's true.
There are all kinds of ways to make money when your product is popular. College Football is popular from Tuscaloosa to Blacksburg to Kalamazoo.
In anticipation of an exit fee, Florida State University administrators are in talks with at least two private equity firms about the possibility of providing financing to help fund the athletic department. While it's common practice for universities to budget and borrow for significant expenditures such as real estate purchases and construction, working with JPMorgan Chase - the world's largest bank by market capitalization - to explore larger sized institutional investment for the FSU athletic department is a first for college athletics. FSU will soon issue nearly half a billion dollars in bonds and a large handful of financial institutions will submit interest rate bids on those bonds. The lower the interest rate the more money that can be borrowed. The private investment door to fund college athletics/athletes is about to be opened. Blue Heron Capital on VT jerseys anyone?
If youβre paying attention to what WWE just pulled off with a $5 billion Netflix exclusive streaming deal then you have an idea of what a partnership with a private equity firm can do when negotiating media rights...especially in the future as STREAMING DISTRIBUTION continues to boom. New Zealand Rugby (All Blacks) is working with a US private equity firm (Silver Lake) to secure a stake in NZR for over $120 million.
VT football will never be second tier.
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 3/11/2024, 2:40:12 PM
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
ESPN & Fox Can't Kill College Football, neither can the Big 10 or SEC
Wanted to share a very refreshing take on realignment. Blacksburg fits right in this analogy as do most. I too do not believe large money market college athletics can exist without the rest. See Link.
The writer (who I have no affiliation with) has some incredibly sophisticated articles on realignment and financing if his content has not been posted here already. He must be the king of requesting and collecting public information.
I joined this forum way back in 1999 along with the Vick glory days. Been a long time since then, but gladly rediscovered this forum again in my research for realignment news.
I'm not a Hokie, but thanks for allowing me to respectfully discuss football with all of you again. Been covering college football for a long time. What's happening now is a revolution the likes of which hasn't been seen since the legalization of the forward pass.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Nothing to lose, ESPN media rights
I thought the same thing concerning the P2 threatening to split if they don't get what they want at the table. What do the non-P2 schools have to lose by telling the P2 to take a hike in all sports?
ESPN extending the ACC media rights deal past the 2026 season is a big part of all this. Why they have not yet leads to so many questions. If they don't, ACC teams wishing to leave only need pay the exit fee plus another year or two of GoR value. The non Mag 7 teams have no say in that scenario.
I believe ESPN has already negotiated certain deals or are at least deep into that process. To garner exclusive CFP rights for the foreseeable future was not something the other major networks would let go of easily. FOX and CBS had their own demands. So much happening. Crazy but certainly interesting stuff creating a once a century sports revolution. Strap in.
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 3/10/2024, 4:16:21 PM
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Clemson will file their own lawsuit
Been hearing this for over a year. The Tigers have been preparing to file much like FSU to exit the ACC. It's just a matter of time (see link).
When teams in the the P2 are making double what the ACC can offer, such moves had to be expected. The lawsuit assertions are only a means to obtain the financial ability to challenge for a national title at the highest level. Clemson and FSU are the only two ACC teams that have proven capable of winning a national title in the last 33 years. Not sure why anyone would expect those teams to settle for anything less.
Clemson filing does not change the legalities of the GoR. But it does make the business side difficult for the ACC to deal with when multiple parties are filing to leave. A settlement will be the likely end result.
I don't believe ESPN will agree to extend the ACC media rights past 2027. Worst case scenario for teams wishing to leave is to pay the exit fee plus whatever the GoR value is through 2027.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
IPTV will be a must
In 10 years everyone with have IPTV much like a cell phone. The Chiefs vs. Dolphins playoff game on Peacock should have been a warning.