That could lead to a Big Ten invite.

Assume FSU and Clemson leave. The "balance of power" will be about equal which will reflect the media / CFP revenue. That should stop defections. The Big 12 and ACC will then have 2 votes and 36-40 schools to help push back against the SEC and Big 10.

It’s just a matter of time.

They have traditionally gotten the bulk of their student body from New York and New England. Miami will want to have schools from both in the league they would join. That's why Donna Shalala wanted Syracuse and Boston College to join them from the Big East to the ACC. She had that influence at the time. Can the B1G or SEC entice them with $$$? Possibly, but I can see their comfort with staying with the ACC too. Radakovich is former Clemson, so he'd love to be in the SEC. His comments are reflective of the Miami Administration. If the B1G takes FSU, which the SEC doesn't need, then they B1G won't need Miami either.

They have a severely diminished football brand from where it was 15 to 20 years ago. They are a bad fit in many ways for sec or b1g. The ACC surviving in some form with a combo of high academic private schools and good publics is their best play imo by far.

They are better off in the new watered down ACC than the Big 12 or anywhere else. Best case- fsu/Clemson lose the lawsuit, see where things are in the 2030s. Next best case - acc agrees on unequal distributions, extend a bit for some stability. Bad but not worst case- fsu/Clemson get out, pay a big exit fee, but unc/uva etc stay. Here better to stay in the acc. Worst case - whole thing blows up

wholeheartedly agree. The question I think becomes whether or not a power 3 gives the third place conference enough of a bump in media payouts and playoff revenue to justify a move in that direction. If it does not, there is zero reason for the ACC to implode. There are enough solid programs to be on par with the B12 without giving up their autonomy, playoff money, or automatic qualifier. I believe they could be competitive.

First, FSU throws the public hissy fit in the summer of 2023, absolving ESPN/Fox of any culpability. Lawsuit ensues. Second, CFP announces intention to expand from 12 to 14 teams before its 12 team model even launches. Third, all of a sudden, this ESPN lookin to continue to the ACC contract in 2027 becomes a know quantity. When all the ACC schools thought they were locked together until 2036, maybe that is no longer the case. And ESPN will make this decision on Feb 2025, just a year away! Fourth, the 14-team CFP contract is finalized and revenue distribution is made extremely public. Percentages, dollars, everything. The ACC and Big XII behind P2, but still making a pretty penny and the ACC is even a bit ahead of the Big XII, very publicly because it has had more CFP success in the past. (Virtually all of it by FSU and Clemson) Fifth, oh boy, Clemson sues the ACC, months after FSU, and also after items two and three are public. This further absolves ESPN/Fox of any legal action by the domino effect created by FSU and new information putting a few more cracks in the GOR. So….what happens next? Here is my guess. First, FSU and Clemson are going to announce this summer their intention to leave the ACC. The departure date will probably in the summer of 2026. This will kick off a big legal battle over exit fees and FSU and Clemson’s lawyers can drag this out for two years. Which leads to…. Second…ESPN is going to have their contract look in next February and announce a reduction in the ACC’s contract value in 2027. The reasoning will be the massive loss of TV viewership Expected from the loss of the top two viewed football programs in the league. We’ve all seen the data and know it. Third, this will allow FSU and Clemson’s lawyers to argue their way out of a significant portion of the GOR penalty, due to ESPN’s factual, public and very unequal appraisal of the media value of the ACC member schools. A part of me thinks it might stop here. But the amount of reduction in the ACC media rights in 2027 with what happens with UNC. Which could start a waterfall. If the ACC gets the Big XII treatment, meaning make more money after losing your best two programs, maybe it hangs together. Also, do the SEC and B1G shut it down at 18 teams each? If there are no more P2 spots, the ACC likely survives. Lots of questions will need answering after FSU and Clemson announce their exit from the ACC. (Which has to be a foregone conclusion) ** Edited by hokieZ71 at 3/24/2024, 10:57:11 PM

First the president is also on the executive board of directors (along with the President of UVA and VT president. They really just can't walk out. Their terms expire in May 2024 after the spring meetings. Second, Miami, has the resources....and can compete short term. I think VT UVA, NC NC State and Miami have a very similar approach. no Drama. (however, UNC Board of Trustees have some lay people recently on the board who want to run their mouth, instead of working behind the scenes. (NO DRAMA is better.

...and worked to get to the P2 in private. Instead F$U ran to every microphone and web page screaming how they want out of the ACC yesterday. I think Clemson initially wanted to keep it on the DL, but after F$U started blabbing everywhere, they decided, "why not?"

Whether you agree with the FSU playoff snub or not, that was bad juju for the ACC. When the undefeated conference champion, who also beat two of the highest level SEC opponents as non-con games, gets bounced out of the playoffs by two P2 teams with one loss, the ACC was done for FSU. If this happened at VT, they would have run to every microphone and webpage screaming. I wouldn't blame them.

with the FSU playoff snub, that was just a preview of what happens when/if the P2 and TV partners get complete and total control. FSU was done with ACC long before the playoff snub. They started *****ing and moaning to cover their own ineptitude as an organization and to possibly wrangle additional money from the ACC. They overplayed their initial hand and limited their future options which shrunk even further with each succeeding outburst. Are you a Nole or a Tiger?

That would be an understatement we both agree on. What concerns me is that the new CFP agreement beyond 2025 isn't completed, only the distribution has been agreed upon. Not even the format is agreed upon as to 14 teams or 16 teams or whatever the number. Also the AQ situation is still open for debate. The P2 does not wish to have an ACC champion in the playoffs when the SEC has to play the likes of Alabama, Georgia Texas, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, etc. If 1999 was today, VT never would have played in a national championship game.

do not give a hoot what the P2 wants but, I understand their desires. The SEC can make the case they have earned concessions on the field. The B1G not so much. The entire thing is a mess and if the P2 and networks choke on their latest plans that would be fine by me. The same goes for FSU. My feelings on Clemson are not as harsh because I think they tried up until the point they could no longer risk their interests to operate in good faith.

So much to be decided before it can be proven the P2 works or how the rest outside that circle have to operate. - House vs. NCAA settlements - Title IX issues - Athletic compensation models - Transfer policies - Athletes as employees "or not" - Scholarships vs. NIL The list goes on. Regardless, at some point the P2 will be making roughly $100 million more annually than those who are not P2. What that equates to down the road is anyone's guess with these issues above unsolved. The small market will still compete.

They presented all this stuff about how they generate the lion share of TV revenue and should get it all. That was the first hissy fit. Then the lawsuit came 6 months later.

They were the same in the Metro, the institution never embraced the conference model, but what it do only for FSU, and heck with the working together. ]What can you say for a basically recent institution, that was only a small women's school till 1950, and always playing second fiddle to Uof F and Miami

When I think of Metro I think of Louisville and Memphis basketball. I guess that's because it was early 80s when I was attending UVA. But you're right about FSU and the ACC. The FSU faithful have never thought of themselves really as an ACC school. Miami has embraced the ACC much more IMO.

In addition to Florida State, you had South Carolina and Southern Miss (which was in the process of developing some consistency in football before some kid named Favre went there). Since Tulane's basketball program was discontinued around this time, the league made strong overtures to West Virginia to take their place. WVU ultimately opted to remain in the Atlantic 10 to preserve their Eastern allegiance and identity. But if you want to play "what if" it's interesting to imagine the possibilities that may have been generated if the Mountaineers had come aboard. Along with the Eastern independents, the Metro was a key building block of Raycom's "superconference" concept that was developed along the same time. Unfortunately for it (and for Virginia Tech) things went the wrong way. Instead of tipping over in a positive direction by luring stronger members such as West Virginia, the Metro went the other direction and had to backfill its membership with basketball options like VCU, South Florida, and UNC Charlotte.

Problem solved

...for the next 10 years?

The judge yesterday said he was looking at rolling up FSU, Clemson and others that may join in and possibly move it to one case. I have sympathy with FSU for the actions they have taken. To me, it is the papers and fans that have pushed it over the top.