VT/UNC/UVa/NC State are going to be a package deal
I just posted this on the subscriber board.....
I am smoking something good right now.
Va popultion = 8.7M
NC population = 10.8M
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Total = 19.5M peeps
Add that up and it's tied with NY for fourth most populated state.(Cali, Texas, FLA are 1 to 3)
The SEC will take all four.
Book it Danno.
37 Replies
2y
I have no idea if ESPN thinks so or even has the money for it. I get they don't want to share regions with the B1G, but taking one school from each state for +$100M for the SEC and $120M for the B1G per year sounds much more reasonable for both conferences. But what do I know
** Edited by HokieDevil at 4/24/2024, 12:33:28 PM
(In response to this post by MrBayAreaHokie)
2y
I would think the answer could easily be yes.
(In response to this post by HokieDevil)
O
obguthr
2y
but...my gut tells me SEC takes F$U and Clemson and B1G settles for Miami and GT. The Virgilina schools remain the core of the ACC that then adds UConn and USF.
My worst nightmare is that UVA/UNC are allowed to go P2 by the powers that be because Tech and State have invites to the XII. XII is not equal to P2 in any way shape or form.
(In response to this post by MrBayAreaHokie)
I see the VA Eastern Shore joined Maryland.
(In response to this post by mancunian)
2y
(In response to this post by mancunian)
The state of WA is pop. 7.7m. And Wazzu about to go G5.
But I hope the tipping point is between 7.7 and 8.7 somehow. We'll see. I think one to each is more likely. But so is both being left out, or one being left out.
(In response to this post by MrBayAreaHokie)
2y
my hypothesis is that these four teams are all the fans in those two states...I would think UW and OU have most fans in Washington and Oregon
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
2y
The dynamics of Washington is different than Va or North Carolina. Washington is the flagship in Seattle and huge footprint, Washington State way off in Pullman near Idaho. The state of Washington has a hands off approach to state schools.
Va and Va Tech work very closely, and its integrated from governance, and leadership throughout the Commonwealth, Every political appointee has been informed, on the party line, each president and support staff has been brought in as well, During the General Assembly each university has 'talks' advising the General Assembly' position. The same with the Governor and the Attorney General. Same with the Congressional Delegation. This is the most bi partisan position in the Commonwealth. this is a package deal.
The State of NC had to police the university system (after the UCLA jump, without any coordination within the system) also UNC chapel hill really had a hands off with their other peer schools of hte system. The new UNC university system reined in Chapel Hill. State and UNC will be a package.
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
2y
You still get those two new states and even better programs / rivalries.
(In response to this post by MrBayAreaHokie)
2y
Are YOU going to start watching UVa and UNC football if this happens?
The SEC and the BIG do WANT the NC/VA college football market - it is lucrative.
The problem is UVa and UNC alone won't bring that in significant numbers - even as the nationally "on brand" schools - but taking all four major state schools in NC and VA MAY be too many.
Thing is, I'd almost bet my life that no one on here has the data (they have the opinions) to determine if taking all four is/is not actually worth it. There is data to pretty much figure how much each school brings independently - and how much another mouth to feed costs - but the synergy/value created by having all four major state schools capturing essentially all college football fans in NC/VA would be more than A+B+C+D - there are non-alum college football fans that would migrate from the ECU, JMU, ODU, WF, Duke, App State type teams to the P2 teams in their state - if not current fans migrating, at least new young fans would pick one of the P2 that get to play other national teams. That calculation would most likely require a very specific study - that is likely in process.
** Edited by RTFC at 4/24/2024, 8:39:32 AM
** Edited by RTFC at 4/24/2024, 9:17:35 AM
(In response to this post by LonghornHokie)
2y
are also logistics to consider and apply. It's why we still keep guessing what will happen. The "synergy/value" you attribute to the four major state schools has already been there for a long time. If those four go to The SEC, the change will be that the audience will be the entire SEC footprint, and beyond, rather than the current ACC audience. So, The SEC will ask themselves, "Do we really need all four to exploit that content?" One school in each state will deliver the cable fees. Why should we pay double for the other schools? Well, the reason they might pay for all four is logistical: It prevents The B1G from also exploiting those states. ...worth it? The B1G used that tactic to devastating affect in Los Angeles. By taking the redundant UCLA, they prevented any other conference from entering the L.A. market. It had the further consequence of crushing the value of the other PAC schools. (This will happen in The ACC when FSU and Clemson leave, but to a lesser extreme.)
So, I go back and forth; basic business says The SEC should expand in VA and NC with one school each. But advanced business warfare says don't let your competitor get his foot in the door. This may depend upon ESPN. Will they pay for four?
(In response to this post by RTFC)
2y
It is about eyeballs/streaming not carrier cable rates.
They want all the eyeballs in both states - UVa and UNC won't bring the football eyeballs - but MAY still be the right answer. That synergy/value isn't the same now and doesn't happen without he 4 schools in one P2 conference.
Paying double but getting more than that is still a good deal.
Also, if all 4 are in one conference, say a VT-NCSU game at 11:00 and the headliner SEC game Bama vs LSU as a later game you'll get some SEC fans tuning in early to see who they may play the next week - won't happen with only the two non football schools.
There is definitely more there - that isn't now - with those four schools in a P2. Only question is, is it enough.
(In response to this post by 33laszlo99)
V
VTCALS72
2y
From the past, some of UVA's best fans are non alums in state ones that the state's darling conference (ACC) brought them to UVA. IMHO, that is a major underpinning to big media's move to the P2. Put another way, media stops trying to find and sell what is fresh and popular and creates popularity in the product they want to sell and make more $$$$ off of.
Could you imagine VT still in the diminished ACC or XII when UT is 200 miles SW, MD in the heart of our biggest growth area, and both UVA and UNC also in the P2?
The sad thing is a case can be made for both UNC and UVA can better is VT is not at the same level (see the 1960-1993 with VT as an indy or early BE vs the ACC
Here is the other thing that what teams may do if given a level playing field. That is why I believe that if football returns rule (not sure they do at this point) then the SEC's best path to take over the DMV/VA/NC market is Clemson, NCSU and VT.
(In response to this post by RTFC)
S
Stech
2y
other than that, I see no reason. Well actually I do, ESPN already dominates Florida and South Carolina with the SEC teams they have. I think FSU and Clemson head to the B1G, that’s why they sued the ACC that is virtually owned by ESPN.
** Edited by Stech at 4/23/2024, 8:54:58 PM
(In response to this post by LonghornHokie)
T
TDVick
2y
schools were heading for the SEC, then there wouldn't be the need for all this drama. ESPN would shuffle them over to the SEC since they have the rights to both conferences. My guess is the SEC doesn't want Clemson or at least not as much as the B10. Either the SEC also isn't as interested in FSU or perhaps FSU really wants to torch ESPN and is insistent on B10 rather than SEC.
(In response to this post by Stech)
2y
(In response to this post by LonghornHokie)
2y
that is the case, UVA gets left out IMO.
(In response to this post by LonghornHokie)
2y
other than fighting to see has less fans at their home fball games?
(In response to this post by LonghornHokie)
I don't think FSU wants to go to the SEC. I think they are B1G all the way.
(In response to this post by LonghornHokie)
2y
something they do not want.
(In response to this post by MrBayAreaHokie)
S
Stech
2y
Basketball Sweet 16 will be paid out like the Football Playoff. Once they expand the NCAA 🏀 Tournament to about 96 and the CBS contract on it expires. That’s why you take 2 from the same city and two from the same state. One is a football school, and one is a basketball school. Get ratings for two different sports.
(In response to this post by 33laszlo99)
2y
SEC wants UNC badly. They might cave in. The B1G wants UNC as well. That could be the key.
(In response to this post by Stech)
S
Stech
2y
Oregon and Washington are the latest examples in the P2. In the B12 the 4 Corners, and the ACC Stanford and Cal. I see the same thing coming when the P2 expand again.
(In response to this post by 33laszlo99)
I agree. They are cherry picking BIG TIME. The Texas-OU coup with no
strap-hangers was a game changer. OU wanted the Pokes to come along BAD. SEC and ESPN said no-can-do.
(In response to this post by 33laszlo99)
2y
$EC. It is built for passionate rivalry that has been sidestepped.
(In response to this post by MrBayAreaHokie)
They might not see VT-UVa as passionate enough. A bit one sided for the
last 25 years. I even think Vandy-Tennessee has been more competitive.
(In response to this post by IB4TECH)
2y
table in regard to rivalries at the current time. But if the $EC were to take those teams perhaps the conference would have regional divisions. That would make it possible for the VA/NC schools to play each other more frequently. VT playing UNC, NCS and Uva every year would be a huge improvement over what we have now and something that would benefit the $EC.
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
2y
for the Big 10, so they should get an invite.
(In response to this post by IB4TECH)
I
I85Hokie
2y
The only question is which SEC team do you pull away to add to those four. I’d guess South Carolina.
(In response to this post by MrBayAreaHokie)
2y
SEC wants rivalries and storylines because they know that's what generates fan interest. Markets like LA where no one cares about college sports may bring in carriage fees, but in the end, the fans don't care and they'll care even less when they are playing MD, IN, IL, WI, RUT, etc.
Those 4 all are rivals with each other and all have rivalries with other SEC schools in a lot of ways (or would be able to create them easily if they were in the same conference because they are a lot alike in many ways).
Not saying it will happen, but it makes more sense than any of the other reasons for realignment that are drummed on around here.
(In response to this post by MrBayAreaHokie)
2y
to digest their new members.
(In response to this post by Vienna_Hokie)
What if the SEC would just lockdown these rivalries and teams in expansion.
UVa-VT
NC State-UNC
KSU-Kansas
ASU-Arizona
This also adds UVa-UNC, KU-Mizzou.
Also take FSU, Clemson and just lock down the entire southern USA.
Maybe even take GT and Miami. (GT-UGa, FSU-Miami).
Perhaps WVU and Colorado even?
The basketball would be BONKERS with Arizona, UNC, KU.
Just tell the B1G they can pick from the rest.
(In response to this post by Vienna_Hokie)