RandomAsianGuy

But the B12 is way worse.

schools leave, the value the conference would drop. But that doesn't mean the payout will drop immediately. That's a huge difference.

be that dramatic.

Does that mean Trent would play the 5? That would give us some needed height.

Despite the widely known strained relations between Notre Dame and the ACC earlier this year, the Irish’s athletic director, Pete Bevacqua, claimed their bond has “never been stronger than ever,” per On3‘s Brett Murphy.

The B10 made headlines by distributing a whopping $1.37 billion. That translates to an average of $76.1M per member school, or $79.9M for full members. The SEC also distributed $1.03 billion, with full members receiving an average payout of $72.4M. I predict the B12’s payout for full members will be around $40-$41 million ($35 million for average including partial shares), while ACC full members will receive $51-53 million ($47 million for average including partial shares) . The ACC will see wider variation even among full members due to its success initiative. Expect the media and pundits to focus on the gap between the ACC/B12 and the P2, although the ACC will make significantly more the B12. *** I revised my calculation. The previous figures were averages including partial shares *** ** Edited by RandomAsianGuy at 5/9/2026, 11:36:52 PM

years and the transfer portal results so far. As I said, it may be because of money or any other reasons but I won't rule out the possibility she actually proiritzes speed and athleticm over height compared to other coaches.

Our lineup last year consisted of a stretched 5 + a stretched 4 + three guards. It looks like this year's lineup will be similar. We have already found streched 5 and streched 4. Don’t get me wrong. Last year they worked hard and made the tournament. It might have also been a necessary choice given our limited budget. But I don’t know if we will get a dominant 5 who can compete against the top ACC schools any time soon.

its media deal. Even with 5 percent or less of a chance getting an invite, they would wait until the very end. Heck even KU may want to wait.

I feel like our only chance is with the SEC and it's a long shot.

Personally, I prefer a tall frontcourt so that guards don’t have to participate in rebounding every time. It's just me and I understand that might not be Duffy's preference.

But I imagine she would do a fair amount of ball handling here unless we get a PG.

The following stat concerns me. 1.8 assists per game and 2.9 turnovers per game

College football realignment has felt inevitable for years—especially at the top with the Big Ten and SEC. But the next wave may not be bigger. It may be quieter, slower, and far more selective. The reason comes down to money—and who controls it. For all the talk of massive future TV deals, the economics heading into the 2030 cycle are tightening. ----------------- Basically, a lot of what we've been saying: 1. TV networks have limited budget. 2. Even so, they still have to spend $$$ to secure the NFL rights. 3. They won't be able to finance big expansion for the SEC and Big Ten. 4. As usual, Jim Williams is showing his pro-G5 stance; USF, UConn, and Tulane to the ACC, and Memphis and SDSU to the B12. I've been saying that the ACC may lose a maximum of four schools, perhaps even fewer. Again there is no reason that the SEC needs to expand just to have the same number of teams as the B10 does.

ND is supposed to love independence and hate being in a conference. Them being a leader of the ACC in order to maintain their football independence sounds paradoxical

So it's somewhat unclear what's going to happen next. There will be still three NC schools and one or two VA schools left in the ACC so they may become a big voting block. Or Duke and Standford may lead the conference. ND will be vocal for things that matter to them but I don't see ND actually leading a conference. That is just not a ND thing. Just my thought.

with an annual low single % increase. The ACC payout increases by 4.5% annually. The next contract at 2031 is a big uncertainty. We will see.

I sometimes post guest articles there. 2024-2025 was still under B12 old contract, wasn't it? It doesn't really matter though. My understanding is B12's new contract ($31.7M) is basically extention of its old contract. As I said, it's extremly unlikely UCF will still receive more than the bottom 1/2 of the ACC. Too many pundits but not many with business/finance sense.

Come back when we see a pro style well organized college football league.

That's between the full pay members. More like $10+ million if you look at the real average. Let's see what they report for 2024-2025 numbers.

but once some schools leave, the ACC will need to backfill. It's EXTREMELY unlikely UCF will be making more money than the bottom 1/2 of the ACC but good luck.

The ACC may lose a few teams (max 4) in 2030. 2030 is a good time because the new B10 contract will start in 2030. The current B12 contract expires in 2031. The B12 itself may lose schools to the P2 but regardless the ACC will target the B12 schools like Utah, ASU, or Zona to backfill if any schools leave the ACC. If they don't come, potential western schools are SDSU, UNLV, and Oregon State. The weakest link (or lowest hanging fruit) in the B12 is actually WVU but I doubt the ACC will invite them. Houston or Cincy have better chance. UConn if UNC leaves. USF if both Miami and FSU leave. I doubt ND is going to "lead" the ACC. The ACC has been run by tobacco road (particularly UNC). My expectation is that the new ACC will continue to emphasize the academics and a tie to NCAA (meaning no break away).

From VT's perspecitve, we should strive to get into the the SEC. That would be the best scenario. The second best is to stay in the ACC and make sure the ACC doesn't fall out too far. This is a more likely scenario IMO.

I think because colleges don't have exemptions to anti trust like the pros. That's a critical difference and that's why conferences play much more powerful roles for college sports.

People seem to think that both the SEC and the Big Ten will expand to 20 or even 24 teams in the next round of realignment (around 2030). I know people like symmetry, but there’s no good reason why the two conferences should end up the same size. This reminds me of what people were saying long time ago. Back then, many believed the end game would be four conferences of 16 teams each (the classic 4×16 model). I haven’t heard anyone seriously talk about that lately. But we have to consider the business side. In the end, it’s all business, isn’t it? Fox and ESPN have been the two main drivers behind conference realignment so far. ESPN is much bigger than Fox in college sports and has far more programming slots to fill (ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, ACC Network, SEC Network, ESPN News, ESPN+, etc.). Fox is heavily committed to the Big Ten, but ESPN can comfortably handle more than one major conference. Their strategy has been to prioritize the SEC as the flagship partner while treating the ACC as a secondary property. The SEC is widely regarded as the best football conference, with excellent basketball and baseball as well. The ACC is a OK football conference with good basketball, baseball, and Olympic sports. There’s another important dimension, though: the SEC is largely a regional conference focused on the Southeast and Southwest. Being regional isn’t a weakness — it’s a feature by design. The SEC still draws the most eyeballs, and I would argue that its regional identity actually helps its ratings. But ESPN is a national network. As a national broadcaster, it needs to reach other markets, even if the ratings in those markets aren’t as strong. How many SEC games do you see in the late night TV slots? Turning the SEC into a “national” conference would be like killing the golden goose. Why would ESPN do that? The simplest and smartest solution for ESPN is to own a secondary, lower-cost property that provides national reach and complements the SEC. That’s why the SEC doesn’t need to be as large as the Big Ten. Fox needs the Big Ten to cover everything, but the SEC doesn’t have to. By the way, I think Yormark desperately wanted the Big 12 to become that secondary national property for ESPN. He has openly talked about covering all four time zones and recruited UConn very aggressively for East Coast and New York market exposure. Unfortunately for Yormark and many Big 12 fans, it looks like ESPN has chosen the ACC for that role by renewing its contract. Sure, Drake T[r]oll and other pundits keep dreaming about the Big 12 poaching ACC schools after 2030, but they don’t seem to understand that the ACC has secured financial stability through 2036 with the new media deal. Schools may leave in 2030, but the media rights money will still be there. And even the relatively modest ACC deal is still significantly better than the Big 12’s deal. (That’s why you rarely hear them talk about the revenue gap between the two.) In the next round of realignment, ESPN may allow the SEC to take UNC plus one more school (maybe UVa?). That would expand the SEC’s geographic footprint and strengthen its basketball profile without compromising its strong regional identity or delivering a fatal blow to the ACC. The Big Ten would likely add two schools as well — at least one from Florida. If they no longer care about AAU status, then Florida State plus Miami could be an option. If they stick to AAU criteria, Arizona or Arizona State could be dark horses. The state of Arizona is as large as Virginia and is growing much faster, yet surprisingly few people have mentioned the Arizona schools as a potential target for the B10. For the ACC, as I’ve said many times, the ACC needs to add some schools from the Pacific and Mountain time zones. The ACC should target Utah and Arizona State (or Arizona) first. Adding one more Texas school wouldn’t hurt either. Getting UConn wouldn't be a bad move to backfill if UNC leaves. It would also prevent the Big 12 from gaining a foothold in the Northeast.

FSU AD Michael Alford: “The next 24 months are very important because we think there could be potentially more movement w/in the industry. So we need to make sure daily that we’re preparing ourselves for that.” ------------- No surprise there. If the B1G needs new schools in 2030 when its new contract starts, the invitations should go out sometime in 2028 or so, right? I have said many times it’s a semi-open race for the hopefuls who want to join the P2. FSU is willing to spend big $$$ to boost its chances. Personally, I think FSU has a shot, but it’s not the sure bet some people seem to believe. It looks like UNC is spending a lot of money as well.

You won't know your limit until you try.

I am not a fan of streched 4 and rather have a proper 4 (and 5), but that's just me. Don't disagree about Nelson.

Hopely she doesn't have to.

She may have to play a stretched 4 at VT, although I’m not a fan of tall guards or wings being asked (forced?) to function as post players.

Is she a possibility for VT? Seems like a better 3 point shooter. From fighting gobbler: Girardi will generate a lot of interest in the portal, and Duffy should make a run at her again. This past season for Oklahoma State, Girardi averaged 7.8 points and 2.1 rebounds while shooting 44% from the field, 40% from behind the arc, and 84% from the free throw line. She played in 28 games and averaged almost 15 minutes a night. She had six points in 12 minutes of action in the second round of the NCAA Tournament for the Cowgirls in an 87-68 loss to UCLA.

e to VT. I won't blame her.

I said her strategy may be to develop in house post players *as much as possible.*

for an additional transfer 5. They must have discussed with Coach before making a decision. I am not blaming Duffy. Maybe her strategy is to develop in house post players as much as possible since they are expensive to get from portal although I would love to have Somfai.

Legacy media will still spend $$$ on NFL and potentially NBA but for other properties, they will be looking for a good ROI.