JW: Why College Football Realignment May Be Slowing Down
College football realignment has felt inevitable for years—especially at the top with the Big Ten and SEC. But the next wave may not be bigger. It may be quieter, slower, and far more selective.
The reason comes down to money—and who controls it.
For all the talk of massive future TV deals, the economics heading into the 2030 cycle are tightening.
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Basically, a lot of what we've been saying:
1. TV networks have limited budget.
2. Even so, they still have to spend $$$ to secure the NFL rights.
3. They won't be able to finance big expansion for the SEC and Big Ten.
4. As usual, Jim Williams is showing his pro-G5 stance; USF, UConn, and Tulane to the ACC, and Memphis and SDSU to the B12.
I've been saying that the ACC may lose a maximum of four schools, perhaps even fewer. Again there is no reason that the SEC needs to expand just to have the same number of teams as the B10 does.
Link:
JW
6 Replies
3mo
Let's be real, it's largely baby sitting for many people with basket weaving degrees. They are too immature to really work in an office, so they need to sit somewhere for four years and mature. Hopefully they are trainable at 21 or 22.
The potential economic hit coming to all but the best schools might be enormous. Maybe not.
I am pretty sure most schools will be like 2/3 female in 5 years, with student body sizes way down.
(In response to this post by RandomAsianGuy)
S
SMU Pony
2mo
Schools that can't provide a meaningful alternative to going to trade school or vibe-coding or whatever else kids are doing these days will be going defunct.
(In response to this post by MrBayAreaHokie)
3mo
IF it pauses, gives opportunities to estabished sustained poower 2 athletics infrastructure and constant competitive playoff elligible program.
(In response to this post by RandomAsianGuy)
3mo
I think he has overlooked some factors that should be discussed.
Yes, NFL rights are rising. But the burden will be shared by more media outlets. Imagine one network buying all of the NFL content. How will they monetize all 272 regular season games in 18 weeks? "It takes a village." Not everyone will prosper, but many are willing to try. The cost of the content is actually painless to the ones who are making a profit. They will not be inhibited from buying more content to fill "non-NFL" days of the week and weeks of the year. Even the lower performing networks my be motivated to buy NCAA (and other) content to make up for NFL underperformance. So if NFL gets expensive, college sports must take a haircut... I don't think so. TV needs more than The NFL can provide. College sports will continue to get strong competitive bids.
Realignment predictions seem to always be set in the year 2030. That will be perhaps the busiest year ever for movement, for obvious reasons. But I could imagine some very strategic, intentional early moves before the dam breaks. Exit fees be damned.
Mr. Williams reports that The NFL is exploring a Sunday morning package (9:00am). Don't rule-out a similar college window on Saturday morning. Remember, a game that starts in Atlanta at 9am will be seen live in London at 2pm, in Berlin at 3pm, and in Dubai at 5pm. This may be the audience that finally lifts streaming services into profitability.
Why is streaming still losing money? They are offering their services at below-cost rates while they wait for cable companies to die. ESPN and Fox One even bundled their respective packages at humbling rates. But in the US market I think cable still has some good years ahead of it. In 2023, the B1G expansion year, cable subs actually increased a little. The next year, OUT to The SEC, subs decreased very minimally. Cord cutting is still a reality, but most of the remaining subscribers seem to be live sports viewers who see no reason to adopt streaming. Watch out for CBS who is in the same stable, now, as TNT, TBS, and TRU; all sports cable carriers. I anticipate vicious predation.
(In response to this post by RandomAsianGuy)
3mo
(In response to this post by 33laszlo99)
3mo
Will you be ESPN/ABC or FOX? Or in ND case NBC?
(In response to this post by RandomAsianGuy)