RandomAsianGuy

or 2026. The surviving entity will be subject to the restriction. The new spinoff conference may not. The new spin off entity may need a new media deal. The existing media will most likely not allow such a spinoff. Even if they are all possible, too much headache and ordeal and may also invite legal challenges.

ordeal to add a few schools, which may not increase the payout materially. The only real target is ND, which can be added even if the PCSA gets passed.

According to Ross Dellenger: The expansion provision remains mostly unchanged: - Power league membership is capped at 19 schools. - Schools moving from one power league to another are required to operate as an independent for five years. - Notre Dame/independents/G6 programs can freely join power leagues.

which tends to take very long. Just my view.

I don't see the ACC lose more than four for the next round. The B10 needs at least one spot open in case ND changes its mind. Hence we got 19.

But if it does pass, the implication would be so significant.

The following: * Conference expansion: Covered conferences may expand by adding non-covered schools up to 19 total members.

The SEC/B10 probably do not intend to add that many ACC/B12 schools anyway.

The SEC and B10 will take their final position very soon on whether to support it or not. I have been saying that the ACC won't lose more than four schools in 2030 but if PCSA is passed, the B10 and SEC would be legally barred from decimating other P4 conferences (they may still grow up to 19 schools. It's not clear at this point)

Also look at this 2025 article, which quotes Brett McMurphy. "I don't know about you guys but I am surprised neither of you said 24. I think we are going to be 20 or 24 with the SEC and the Big Ten and the question is what is going on with the Big 12 and the ACC and are they going to be allowed to be a part of that group? I think it is very clear, if you want to speculate recklessly, about who it will be. After I reported that this morning, I immediately got a text from someone within the SEC and basically said what I have been thinking. It is North Carolina and Virginia will be highly contested between both conferences and where they end up, nobody knows, it is impossible to say, but I do think that they are the most attractive to both leagues. We will have to wait and see what happens, five years is a long time, two years is way but year speculate recklessly." If you follow the realignment, you would know UVa was mentioned a lot more often than VT.

don't get an invitation. Clemson is likely to stay in my view. Only one Florida school may get an invite.

The thing is while we would have better matchups and potentially better TV coverage, our record would likely suffer. Many UMCP and Rutgers games are on BTN. Many second tier SEC games are on SECN. UMCP, Rutgers, Neb, Missouri, etc are still lagging the P2 peers. VT is not in a top rating group even in the ACC. I think we are behind UL. VT's rating won't be in the top half of the SEC/B10 unless our football team drastically improves. That's the first step.

** Edited by RandomAsianGuy at 7/27/2026, 5:31:30 PM

the best metrics for the media revenue generation. I guess we are in agreement that VT is not there yet and has a possibility to improve its chance.

One of the Florida schools is probably a lock for the B10. At this point I think Miami is ahead. I have been saying the ACC will not lose more than 4 in 2030. The other two spots are open for the ambitious ACC or B12 schools. And that's why these schools invest $$$. VT's best bet is to join the SEC along with UNC and VT should build rapport with UNC. You can look up my history. I have been saying all this.

deal. But NOT always as Rutgers was invited before. In the end it's all about $$$.

“Do you think expansion is about football TV ratings first?”. My answer was that football rating matters. If you ask what matter most, I would say $$$. The expasion is about money first. Does it answer your question? I am getting tired of your investigation. Do you always ask like that if your opponent doesn't agree with you?

Extrernal factors may change the situation as well. But that doesn't necessarily support the argument that VT would be invited or VT is ahead of UVa at this point.

or the B10 wants. Now answer my questions. You seem to love investigating but rarely answer.

I don't see the SEC and B10 add many schools in 2030. My prediction has been that the ACC may lose up to four schools in 2030. I also think the B10 will revisit ND around 2036 if they stay with the ACC at the next round.

now. It's not really difficult to understand in my opinion. Can VT increase its chance? Absolutely. We have a new coach and new admin, that would invest more. But as of right now, we are outside looking in.

UNC and UVa pair makes sense to me, though.

school would it choose? Their permanent rivals are Duke, UVa and NC State. If the SEC will have to pick one from the above three, which school would it choose? Only one school will them a new market. By the way when I suggested on this board VT should try to play UNC more often, the feedback was overwhelmingly negative.

It's not difficult to find one. --------- According to ESPN’s Pete Thamel, North Carolina and Virginia are going to be “coveted” heavily by both the Big Ten and SEC. --------- Pete Thamel is a reputable reporter. When it comes to the realignment, he is one of the best along with Ross Dellenger and maybe Brett McMurphy. Now show me any article about VT to the SEC/B10 from a reputable reporter.

Neither is a slam dunk candidate. As a possible tag along candidate, UVa is a better match for UNC. At least UVa has an AAU membership. UVA got more money if my understanding is correct. VT's location is harder to get to. But let's ask @CobbCountyHokie. Do his sources think VT has a better chance than UVa as of now?

as a potential realignment target by reputable reporters.

1. The SEC eventually expanding to 20 teams is different from adding four schools in 2030. I think they will add at most two schools in 2030. If your sources are from VT, they likely won’t have direct insight into when (or how many schools) the P2 decides to invite. 2. I’ve said it a few times. This is a semi-open race. Every ACC Big 12 school aspiring to join the P2 will invest as much as possible to put itself in the best position. Obviously, that doesn’t mean everyone will get invited. I don’t like VT’s chances, but we do have a chance. 3. Our best bet is joining the SEC along with UNC in my opinion. If UVa gets an invite from the Big Ten, that might open up a spot for us in the SEC. But why would the B10 invite UVa without UNC?

But I don't think that's a good use of my time. To be clear I didn't competely rule out the B12 getting a better media deal than the ACC. There are other remote scenarios where some ACC schools decide to join the B12 in 2030 as you wrote. Again personally I think it's very unlikely. You seem to believe it's possible. And that's fine and I respect your view. But you don't have to convince me.

It's very (extremely) unlikely that the B12 gets a deal better than the ACC in 2030 and I don't see any ACC school would pay the exit fee to join the B12.

always uncertianty invovled. Sure if it's the B10 or the SEC, it's almost certain that things will get finalized as planned. Not so sure about the other leagues. Even for the last round, the best the B12 did was pro rata addition for the P5 schools.

degree.

parts. Old Big East and Pac 12 negotiation with ESPN were examples of uncertain deals. Some of the B12 schools may not want to sign the deal until very last minutes. That would add uncertainty. But whether it's certain or uncertain, I don't see any ACC schools would pay $75 million to join the B12 around 2030/31.

Nobody in the ACC would pay $75 million exit fee to join the B12 around 2030 for their uncertain media deal. That's my view but you are of course entitled to your opinon.

The Pac 12 collapsed because they didn't have the media deal when the big brands announced the departure. This is goint to be a different situation. When and if the big brands leave the ACC in 2030 the ACC will very likely maintain the money advantage through 2036.

Read the OP. I clearly said "unless the Big 12 strikes a miraculous mega deal in 2031."

To me the ACC's main competitior is the B12. If the ACC is sufficiently better than the B12, then the ACC will be able to backfill with the B12 schools as needed like the ACC did to the old Big East.

Honestly it doesn't matter in my opinion. They will have a new media contract in 2031. Seems like that's their focus.

Phillips said Wednesday during his annual forum that the league would crack $900 million in total revenue for the just-completed 2025-26 season. By comparison, the Big Ten and SEC both crossed the $1 billion mark in total revenue in their 2024-25 filings, with the Big Ten paying an average of nearly $79.9 million to full-share members while the SEC came in at nearly $72.4 million. -------- That equates to approximately $51.4 million per school for its 17.5 members. Whenever the ACC hits a revenue milestone, the media typically contrasts its revenue with that of the SEC and Big Ten. They almost always do. But look at the Big 12. Their projected revenue for 2025-2026 is $710 million, which translates to roughly $44.4 million per school. (the media coverage of the Big 12’s revenue typically focuses on its growth and resilience.) These figures represent total revenue, not distributions. Still, it is very likely that the ACC will maintain roughly a $7 million per-school advantage over the Big 12 in the first year of the B12’s new media deal. I’ve said it many times, but it’s comical how many realignment “experts” predict that several ACC schools will jump to the B12 around 2030. Why would any ACC school pay a $75 million exit fee just to join the Big 12 and get paid “less”? That’s just an asinine take. Their reasoning is always the same: when the ACC loses some schools to the P2 around 2030, its value will plummet and the remaining schools will need a lifeboat. But come on, the ACC’s media deal does not expire in 2030. The ESPN contract runs through 2036. The ACC will still get paid more than the Big 12 through 2036 unless the Big 12 strikes a miraculous mega deal in 2031. I don’t see that happening in this tough media market. It’s likely the ACC will maintain its lead. Not only that, but unless the Big 12 adopts unequal revenue distribution, its top programs will trail the ACC’s top programs by $20 million+. (In other words, the Big 12’s top tier schools will have a financial incentive to move to the ACC)

It is already pre-filled with Stanford, Cal, and SMU. More importantly, the ESPN contract has been renewed through 2036, securing "financial" stability even if members change.