What if we have been thinking expansion too much? I have a theory
Yes the BIG and SEC will expand...assuming they can get it done without Congress blocking it.
But after that, who says the ACC and B12 have to expand or die? They will both definitely change, and definitely earn less money going forward, but they don't have to die. ESPN owns the ACC contract, ESPN and FOX split the B12 contract. So there is an opportunity to make a new P5 conference. And there is a lot of benefit to keeping the ACC and B12 alive (think jobs tied to those conferences and the events they put on).
Assumption #1: BIG poaches UNC and Georgia Tech. SEC poaches FSU, Clemson, Miami, and Colorado
Assumption #2: B12 and ACC can exist with just 9 teams each (round robin scheduling and still meets playoff criteria). If either one wanted to expand, the top three targets would be Tulane, Memphis, South Florida.
Assumption #3: Data clearly shows which schools have averaged the best viewership over time. If we take those top 10 teams to make a new conference, it could become the #3 earning conference immediately with the backing of ESPN and FOX.
Hypothetical 10 teams (based on actual viewership data) to form a new football conference.
VT
Pitt
Louisville
Iowa St
Kansas St
Oklahoma St
TCU
WVU
Utah
The other teams to be considered based on viewership data would be NC State, Syracuse, BYU.
There is clearly pushback against conferences getting too big, plus survival instincts will kick in and prevent any kind of merger between the B12 and ACC. So the logical next option is controlled shuffling to create something new while leaving minimal disruption behind. This would be especially true in the ACC where the remaining teams would be heavily academic and olympic sports/basketball focused.
** Edited by HokieAl at 7/28/2026, 11:43:43 PM
12 Replies
i feel everything is largely unpredictable right now
too many massive catalysts that are up in the air(what is really the impact of AI, deficits at well over 100% of GDP now, UBI)
I say good luck to all the Carnacks out there...none of can predict much imho
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
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The markets and the economy could falter over the next year just as easily as they rose up. And if the money is impacted then sports falls way down the list of things to get funding from people.
Will be very interesting to see what plays out over the next 4-12 months.
(In response to this post by MrBayAreaHokie)
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The SEC/B10 probably do not intend to add that many ACC/B12 schools anyway.
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
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(In response to this post by RandomAsianGuy)
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VTCALS72
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And again a big if, UVA and VT are a package deal and UNC/NCSU are as well, then the ACC could only lose FSU, Clemson and Miami. Maybe add USF and have serious discussions with Wake and BC as to whether they are willing to make the commitment to be at the just under the P2 level.
IMHO an ACC minus FSU, Clemson, Miami, Wake and BC plus USF could be a really good conference.
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
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My personal opinion, I don’t think VT/UVA or UNC/NCSU need to stay together if one moves conferences. I think the key is that both teams are taken care of in a secure position that will not impact the local economy.
So for me, VT and UVA could end up in different conferences and be just fine as long as they still play each year and both are in a P4/P5 level.
UVA could remain in the ACC (minus a few teams). VT could follow several different paths. And both could be happy and comfortable with their result. For me the package deal just means that nobody gets dumped by the side of the road like Washington St or Oregon St.
** Edited by HokieAl at 7/29/2026, 8:45:58 AM
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
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package deals still don't make sense...if it were to come down to a choice between a virtual guarantee of keeping one economy strong while risking the other suffering...versus...risking that both suffer...who is choosing the latter? Who chooses dumping both by the side of the road when one can be saved?
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
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I doubt the VA politicians would stand in the way of VT or UVA getting a P2 invite.
Back 20 years ago they could influence how UVA voted for VT. But they won’t have that ability to impact much this time around. And you are right that they won’t hurt both schools by forcing them to act together.
But maybe in NC it will be different. I don’t know.
(In response to this post by Pylons)
And had they not gotten involved we likely are in the SEC already
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
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20 years ago was a very different situation from what potentially lies ahead...that wasn't a "package deal," which would presumably would be presented to a conference independent of whomever is offering it...it was more of a "do this or else" presented to a school subject to the influence of the source of the ultimatum
Politicians or whoever can and should want their flagship schools to both have good conference homes, but when it comes down to it, truly tying them together for expansion is folly
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
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VTCALS72
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Can a school really be a flagship when another school has more and turns out more alumni?
(In response to this post by Pylons)
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Alumni volume alone wouldn't define that though
So maybe better to term VT/UVa "the 2 most prominent schools"
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)