INSIDE99
I
Posting History (223)
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Composition Clauses Expanded/Clarifications
Composition Clauses are standard in the sports network industry.
If it helps, here is a link to an SBJ article from 2011 when the ESPN $1.86 billion deal was in its infancy. Pay attention to paragraph 5 and the next to last paragraph. If it's easier I will copy & paste them here. Pay closer attention to the very last sentence about ESPN and Fox as it also applies to the ACC.......
The ACCβs contract with ESPN, which is valued at $155 million a year, contains a standard line called a βcomposition clauseβ that allows either the conference or ESPN to reopen the deal if membership increases or decreases by at least two schools. The conference or the network can act on that clause any time the conferenceβs membership changes by at least two schools.
The clause in the ACC-ESPN contract that permits the deal to be reopened is standard among college conferences. The SEC is expected to exercise its right to a new deal if it adds Texas A&M and another school, as reported. ESPN and Fox, meanwhile, could void the Big 12βs contract or ask the conference to give it a reduction in fees if it loses teams.
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 6/21/2024, 1:12:57 PM
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Two way street for ACC
Yes, absolutely.
If any two ACC teams enter or leave, then both the ACC and ESPN can ask for a renegotiation of the contract. Doesn't mean they get it. Would go to arbitration if they cannot agree. As an example, if the ACC picked up TCU and Notre Dame full time...you can bet the ACC is asking for more money. Although those type of deals usually come pre-approved by the networks -- including the CalFord Ponies.
The ESPN two team change Composition Clause is in the contract for both additions and subtraction of members. Point being that the ACC is not as valuable without you know who. The ESPN contract will change when it happens...quickly.
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 6/21/2024, 11:44:05 AM
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
The Composition Clause
I am referring to has nothing to do with how many teams are in the ACC.
If two or more teams leave the contract can immediately be voided or reopened to negotiation.
FSU/Clemson leaving changes the contract and its value. E$PN is going to protect itself, which is why these clauses exist.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
The Composition Clause
is going to be more of a problem than a look-in/extension. That's assuming two teams leave and the contract gets reopened to negotiation.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Why hasn't ESPN extended the ACC contract? Composition Clauses
Is the network waiting for legal answers? ESPN has 7 months to make a decision whether to extend past 2027 and if left to the courts, they won't have any legal closure answers to guide them by that time. Lawsuits are not the reason. The hold up by ESPN dates far back before the lawsuits, as much as 2021 when they declined to renew.
For over a year now a large number of discussions have occurred over what is in the ACC/ESPN contract. The fact networks don't want those "trade secrets" released has a method.
The ACC/ESPN contract has a Composition Clause that states if the ACC membership decreases or increases by at least two schools, then ESPN can IMMEDIATELY act on that clause to cancel or renegotiate. They do not have to wait until 2027.
I have continually expressed that when FSU/Clemson leaves chaos is about to ensue. The chaos has several branches, that includes a potential realignment and race for P2 membership of course, but a great deal of confusion will occur over TV rights that go beyond the GoR discrepancies.
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 6/21/2024, 1:22:59 AM
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Entertainment at its best
That means you are going to love the fireworks about to come. Let the chaos begin.
The ESPN Composition Clause isn't in everyone's best interest.
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 6/20/2024, 11:34:02 PM
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Yep
That is the same campfire talk I got over Memorial Day Weekend from one of the NBC Sports Executives who I have known since high school. Doesn't mean it's going to happen. And you are also correct, he didn't know either. hehe. But that is what the networks desire it seems. The networks (NBC/FOX/CBS) are in approval should we say. It's Notre Dame.
I am speculating (like everyone else) that the B1G wants a schedule deal with ND. The two have talked about this for a while. Again (repeat stuff), ND is not ready to give up football Independence. The ideal situation for the Irish would be to join the B1G with the same deal they have with the ACC. All sports, but only X amount of contracted league games in football. ND won't get that deal from the P2.
So in essence, ND has only ONE option where they can set up X amount of contracted football games with the B1G. And that would be to join the Big East in all other sports. Don't need a source to deduce this simple logic.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Irish only have 2 options
if they wish to stay Independent for football. ACC or Big East.
ACC requires them to play out X amount of football games. Big East not.
I'm very certain the P2 will not provide that option for all sports but football.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Once FSU exits, Notre Dame will follow
Although I have had some confusion with different people about the ACC GoR and ND football. ND football is not a member of the ACC and so they are free to leave. It's all other sports that carry that exit fee. At least that is what I have gathered from ESPN reports. Being intertwined in all sports with the ACC is a little more complicated in terms of the legal ramifications despite ND having their name on the same GoR that every other member has signed.
But there can be no discussion of where ND goes without discussing all sports. I believe ND has a home for all sports at the Big East. It's no coincidence NBC just signed a deal to televise Big East hoops games. ND football can get a guaranteed partial B1G schedule (possibly SEC as well) for the right price. Obviously, ND because of its following has many options as always, but joining a P2 in all sports but football is not one of them thankfully.
The ND old guard still wants football Independence. I don't see them budging until forced to do so down the road when money and better CFP inclusion does the talking.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Other sports
It's good to see someone address "the other sports" concerning ND. Because the Irish are not joining any conference for all sports at this juncture.
One would hope the ACC isn't stupid enough to let ND football go while letting them participate in all other sports.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Pate already knows
what's about to happen.
The next two weeks are going to be crazy for the ACC. Strap in!
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 6/17/2024, 7:29:57 PM
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Other than voting to sue
FSU/CU what more could the Mag 7 do?
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 6/17/2024, 1:08:34 AM
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Thank FSU later
FSU will be the team that began constructing the path for VT (among ACC others) into the P2.
Not that it would not have happened anyway, but they were bold enough to be the ignition. Poke at them all you wish now until it's the Hokies' turn to throw the rock. FSU only moved first because they had a landing spot.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
VT will get a P2 opportunity
The B1G will expand beyond 2 or 3 more teams and it will happen before the current 12 team CFP deal expires.
VT will get a P2 opportunity -- or call it top tier football opportunity if you wish. Be ready when the time comes. Another division in football is coming from separation. Can't give details because there are no specifics at this time other than a new league is coming for those who can fit the new cost.
Take my source info or leave it...doesn't matter. Forums don't equate to money for clicks under an anonymous username.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Clemson and FSU have no where to go
I can only reiterate again, if FSU/Clemson have no where to go while filing extremely expensive lawsuits involving billions of dollars to get out of the league where they currently reside, their administration has to be the most imbecilic business decision makers in the history of sports. They are not.
Every source I know has one universal commonality at this point: the realignment rumors are going to fly before July 4. And I'm not just talking FSU/Clemson because this is about much more than those two. Strap in.
My latest rumor: When FSU leaves, Notre Dame is next. The Irish will agree to stay Independent in football while playing a guaranteed amount of contracted games with the B1G (and possibly with the SEC too). Notre Dame will join the Big East for all other sports. The person at NBC who told me this mentioned back in May to watch for NBC to make a partnership deal to televise Big East basketball. OK, that just happened. But I am still not sold on this realignment rumor. Just relaying and adding to the mill.
I am still sold on FSU/Clemson splitting, much sooner than anyone expects and then the real fireworks get crazy for others to jump on the P2 boat. We'll see.
Personally, FSU/Clemson staying in the ACC for at least two more seasons is way more beneficial to winning their conference and getting that automatic CFP bid. FSU/Clemson have won the ACC in 12 of the last 13 years. It's a far more weaker football league after those two. But money is the driver. I'm alright Jack keep your hands off my stack.
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 6/15/2024, 11:34:01 PM
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Tech Sideline
There are people at the highest network levels, presidents offices, league offices, etc. that read this forum among several other ACC forums when it comes to realignment discussion. They would never (or rarely) post anything. Trust me, they do way more than one can realize -- a compliment to Will and the VT community.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Realignment Fireworks on the way
The next two weeks are about to explode on the realignment talk. Strap in.
This won't be nor has ever been just about FSU/Clemson, which makes this realignment saga another animal. Once they announce intentions the rest gets far more insane. The institutions not currently involved in P2 alignment will have some hardcore decisions to make and the chaos will be entertaining to say the least.
This is a realignment board, so I figured all those here are interested in the topic. No need for me to announce a "Stay Tuned" announcement I guess. But it's happening and the rumors are going to fly in a much greater capacity.
National TV prime slots are about to be predominately B1G/SEC. What's left will be regional Tier 2 fill in and streaming sources. The difference in 2-4 years will be a gap of 50 million viewers for some schools over the course of the regular season and less than 15 million viewers for leftovers. The gap is only going to grow on every branch until the inevitable happens - separate divisions. Every one is going to attempt to get on that boat.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Standard ACC deals
If ESPN elects not to extend, Virginia Tech could be locked into a GoR through 2036 with no media rights income. Or maybe the ACC renegotiates a deal with YouTube TV as another example for a rather small $10 million payout per year and all conference members have no say until 2036.
That's how many have perceived this whole process, which is rather mind boggling.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
There is no contract past 2026
Assume for the moment it's fact that ESPN has the right to not renew the ACC contract past the 2026 season.
That affords the ACC the right to negotiate a new contract with any network after the 2026 season until ESPN does guarantee beyond that point. In other words, the ACC has no contract past 2026 as of now.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Value
In the near future I don't see the P2 expanding past 2-4 more schools. The only additions that would be approved for the time being is if that school increases revenue for each member not dilute the revenue chain. Taking less shares is one way.
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 6/7/2024, 1:49:41 AM
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Links
New Pac-12 Teresa Gould commissioner weighs in on potential Mountain West merger...
On page 11 of the PAC 12 and Mountain West agreement is a section titled "Definitive Transaction" that says the Pac-12 and MW will "negotiate in good faith the consummation, as promptly as reasonably practicable, of a definitive transaction pursuant to which all MWC Member Institutions join Pac-12 as Pac-12 member institutions with no MWC Exit Fee payable by any MWC Member Institution to MWC." The invitations, if made, would be effective as of the 2025-2026 or 2026-2027 season.
https://nevadasportsnet.com/news/reporters/new-pac-12-ter...
Also, Jon Wilner does a good job of covering the PAC 12 from the Bay Area Spokeman-Review.
https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2024/apr/25/pac-12-mail...
Take a look at the Oregon State and Washington State 2024 schedules I posted here about a month ago.
I'm saying it's gonna happen by next summer - or at least an announcement for the 2026 season. I AM SPECULATING. If you are not sure please understand, I AM SPECULATING using info available.
Also, VT is going to beat Vanderbilt in the opener by double digits. Sorry I do not have a link. Not sure why opinions are not so welcome without full proof to some.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Know what?
The BOG knows that FSU/CU is leaving the ACC. Don't you? Well, maybe if you are in complete denial.
That is different from knowing where they go, when they go, how much it will cost and what other ACC members decide to do.
Hey, UNC and NC State have played against each other uninterrupted since 1953. Carolina leads the series 68-39-6.
Let's pass a bill that forces them to play every year. -- OK got it.
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 6/6/2024, 10:57:49 AM
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Forming a new PAC 12 is one thing
Getting Power Conference status is another. Just saying they will apply hard with pressure. Kind of like Houston and Cleveland demanding to have their NFL franchise returned. Agree, I don't see Power status forthcoming.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
PAC 12 back to a power conference
The PAC 12 is going to merge with the Mountain West by next summer. Which MWC teams make the merge with Washington State and Oregon State is open for debate. But the new league is going to push for immediate return of power status. Basically, more G5 schools looking for better inclusion.
What that means is that Cal, Stanford and SMU could have yet another big decision to make. Guess that also depends on the status of the ACC. Seemingly all intertwined.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Forum Shopping - what's happening.
Not sure why you have been so bitter about my posting here. This is a realignment board. I post on several realignment threads on multiple forums. I have replied at least 20 times directly that I speculate just like everyone else and every source I may talk with. Yet you continue to say I speak in fact. OK sometimes I type with no reservations given what I hear. I enjoy sharing info here and have great respect for VT football. I played at Lane Stadium long ago. Sat in the Super Dome when Vick was superman at the Sugar Bowl during Y2K in New Orleans. 1999 was the year I joined TSL.
Not sure why it matters what school I attended. Most of the info I get comes from network executive producers that I have been friends with for a very long time if that helps. One person in particular always tells me details change constantly on this subject. But I have not waffled on this forum back and forth. I will say it yet again with conviction.....
FSU is leaving the ACC. They will announce before August 15 regardless of where the court cases reside. Peter Collins, the chairman of the FSU BOT, already knows the exit date, the destination and the exit costs. It's his call when to announce publicly (soon).
I will also declare that both the B1G and the SEC are big time partners and they are only going to get more closely related to the point where it doesn't matter which P2 league VT eventually joins ;) (wink and smile)
ESPN and FOX are joined at the hip in 100% working order when it comes to the P2 and how to make money from it. Their partnered streaming service, which debuts this fall, is going to be huge moving forward (over $35 per month to get exclusive games). Like most big business, networks and people with the checkbooks are making these decisions, not courtrooms.
In time, the P2 will separate in football. Connect those dots yourself, it's very easy to see what's coming. I really cannot wait for this to all be over. When the back stories finally come out they will be mind boggling.
Also, UNC is an enigma. Since the BOG stepped in, no one knows where or when they will finalize their destiny. Notre Dame will be the next to leave the ACC soon after FSU/Clemson. And I don't know yet if Clemson has full pro rata from FOX/B1G or ESPN/SEC. FSU does for the first and the GoR was never "ironclad". We have seen better contracts than the GoR have holes punched through it. Doesn't matter though.
Hopefully I have been respectful. I'm not a troll - I'm a FORUM SHOPPER! lol
GO HOKIES!!!
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 6/6/2024, 1:07:32 AM
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Hardest rumors - UNC and NC State
With so many college football rumors flying around so far in 2024, trying to distinguish who might go where has been next to impossible. B1G, SEC, Big XII, ACC, PAC2 (Mountain West additions) - nobody knows. I am convinced that the networks control most of those decisions through money. Once the network approval is made, then the conferences commissioner/members make the final call.
I have a very close, longtime friend who works in the NC Governor's Office. He was the one who told me back in January that UNC and NC State had an approval from the SEC. I took it (like all sources) with a grain of salt. Then it was about a few weeks later that the BOG stepped in to enact a mutiny and take over decision making. The timing was either weird or improbable.
I will stick to a prediction that UNC and NC State are a package deal. It's the only way to pull the Tar Heels out against state government wishes. But I'm not all that move is certain.
The new vote to make sure UNC and NC State continue to play each other was not needed because they already do...unless the two schools leave. That was the clue. That is when my same friend told me the BOG already knows the outcome of the ACC moving parts with other members.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Connecting dots in North Carolina
Decisions were made at FSU this past weekend. BOT meeting called on June 20.
Ross Dellenger at Yahoo Sports (hint and wink)
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 6/4/2024, 1:51:17 PM
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
The exit costs
Whatever exit cost FSU/Clemson has to pay to leave will establish the cost for every ACC member going forward.
The current lawsuits are mainly about establishing that cost.
Any talk of ACC teams bolting for the Big XII or going to another P2...if the established cost to get out prior to the ESPN agreement ending is $200 million, that's what it is barring a vote to dissolve the ACC. These are the reasons CalFord/SMU (and any future ACC additions) were added. Those schools bring no revenue, only small market votes to counter the Mag 7.
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 6/2/2024, 11:02:41 PM
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
VT football is too relevant
1) ACC which includes both Clemson and FSU - 0%
2) A watered down ACC without Clemson & FSU - 45%
3) SEC - super conference
4) B10 - super conference
5) B12 - 0%
6) non-ncaa Football only P1 superconference - 55%
A P2 super conference is inevitable in time. I believe VT will be in that group because football in Blacksburg is the most relevant football played south of the Mason Dixon line/Ohio River and north of the Palmetto State/Rocky Top.
Until that happens the ACC will exist watered down. No ACC member can go Independent.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Not the same
as attorneys having full access using it to file a lawsuit as evident by Clemson's new motion. They claim the contract says their rights leave with them.
Interesting at best.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Only one school has a full unredacted copy of the ESPN contract
Clemson
If you are interested in the legal side of all this I would pay attention to how Clemson moves their pieces moving forward. They have the contract - not available for public display.
It's one thing to send officials to Charlotte to read the ESPN/ACC contract. It's another for your attorneys to have a copy when it comes to contract lawsuit positions. This is the closest we may get to what is in that contract.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Regardless of cost
A very good response. Apologize for typing in platitudes. I did not wish to write a chapter with each response to be more clear.
I was referring to a plan. Obviously schools like VT have no way to put that plan into full action at this juncture.
SMU did move "regardless of cost". Getting into power conference football has a massive cost and it's only getting bigger with the new brand of college athletics about to play out. Schools have to figure if they can afford this route moving forward. Many will not afford it even if they wish to do so.
But again, your response here has my respect.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
The P2
Planning whatever strategy for when the opportunity presents itself that is necessary, regardless of cost. A super conference will expand past FSU/Clemson/ND in time.
While I was never a fan of SMU getting voted into the ACC you have to respect the Mustangs doing whatever it took to get out of the G5 pool. SMU should be erecting a statue of David Miller on campus for his foresight and financial contributions to make it happen. Especially after the PAC 12 disaster that almost blew out the SMU wish candles.
This also proves my point that FSU/Clemson do have a P2 offer already. Without it where would they be suing to go? But most fans outside those circles can't seem to connect those dots yet. No other ACC member is suing to get out because they have no landing spot yet. If VT did, they would have their own lawsuit. When that time comes, make sure any ACC deal provides that opp.
I believe that VT is on the cusp of being a P2 future member...or not. It's close, hoping VT officials are at least planning on what it will take to make it happen, even at less than full shares.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
FSU will announce before August 15
The last day to announce for being out in 2025.
The fireworks start now.
Rumor Mill will be cranking them out daily.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
A P2 super league is coming -- where is VT?
Isn't that the question of all questions here?
The Rich Eisen Show today was soft yet so very powerful. He is correct - Greg Sankey and Tony Petitti are going to separate their conferences from the rest in football. They almost have no choice.
The B1G and SEC are both going to expand before the super league comes to fruition. It won't be a massive expansion. When that happens is VT moving to get out of the ACC and if so, wouldn't they be attempting to do what FSU/Clemson are doing now?
You can sit back and let FSU/Clemson do the dirty work while cursing their names when in time it will be your turn to decide if VT wants to play for a Tier 1 championship with the best.
I would be supporting a plan to move yesterday. See the future, be the future.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
There is a mega amount of horse trading among the networks
ESPN didn't sublicense their CFP rights to TNT just for the heck of it. That is just the tip of the iceberg.
There is this new streaming partnership between ESPN, FOX and Warner Bros that will debut this fall. FYI, Warner Bros owns TNT.
FOX backed off the new CFP bid with some provisions for ESPN selling participation to other carriers for certain early games. This all took place during Realignment talks.
When Texas and Oklahoma made the decision to leave the Big 12 for the SEC they each faced a potential penalty of $160 million. But as it turns out, the financial burden suffered by the two schools was offset by ESPN.
This list is too long for this thread.
**** ESPN will broker a new deal for the ACC contract extension through 2036 and it will include the fait of FSU/Clemson.
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 5/31/2024, 2:04:25 AM
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Agreed
Agreed on Lambert. All I was referencing was a similar sharing of what I have been told by numerous sources ---
The ACC is in serious discussions with ESPN about extending the 7 year deal. Phillips admitted it himself. There are two ways that negotiation can go and he was correct. The point is...even so-called realignment experts that I don't care for are now streaming in the same direction.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
The Irish
Wow, I posted that on X and in another forum verbatim.
This is what a longtime friend who works at the top of NBC Sports told me: For football, ND will play either a guaranteed P2 Combo schedule or would be satisfied with just a B1G schedule deal. ND in the B1G for all sports but football (like the current deal with the ACC) would be the first Irish choice. Same wish for a century but not likely without some major NBC sharing concessions with FOX. If that happens ND would never be on a Disney network again so it's a tough sell. He also told me months ago ND was going to return to the Big East in all other sports.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
No change
I post on every realignment forum since winter. That's how you learn.
My story has never shifted. I have stated all along that FSU will announce they are leaving the ACC before August 15 well before a courtroom even hears the actual meat of the lawsuits.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
No one is joining another conference without their media rights
That's not to say FSU/Clemson won't play a predominant B1G/SEC schedule. There is a ton of "what if's" in a hardball scenario including ESPN dropping the ACC contract completely.
ESPN does have most all the say 100%.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Big 10 national brand is an oxymoron in that context
The B1G is going four corners. NW, SW, NE, SE. It's been their game plan since the PAC 12 fell in their lap. Tossing FSU, Clemson and Notre Dame in the mix is probably more than the SEC would like despite coordination between both P2 conferences.
Missouri, Texas A&M, Penn State, Utah, Nebraska (since the 90s) have never been national title blue bloods regardless of conference affiliation. But the money at least affords them that opportunity. The new CFP will be no different than what just occurred in college baseball - SEC teams playing .500 ball and getting the post season bid.
Dennis Dodd of CBS just made a tweet that sums it up:
The drum beat has started early for what was assumed but never nailed down -- 9-3 teams, or worse, are going to be in the expanded playoff. @SEC is first in line to make the point ... to be first in line -- if the schedule is good enough, 9-3 should trump 11-1, 12-0.
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 5/31/2024, 12:37:50 AM
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
You don't believe settlements override a courtroom?
Lawyers generally tell you that 90% of all cases end in settlement.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
It's happening - the ACC summer of crazy
First, I so appreciate being able to come to this forum to discuss realignment respectively.
Sometimes it seems my posts, which seem to go against the VT opinion grain, come across as assured. They are not. I have connections, sources, insiders like everyone else. But even those people don't know for certain and they will say the same. Yes, like any podcaster or X tweet I share what I get told but don't wish to be the person who just throws out malarkey to see what sticks. Connecting the dots to see what is valid or not is an important aspect and actually quite entertaining for a college football lover. The suspense is addictive. So please allow me to share what I get and take it with a grain of salt, agree or not. Most of my friends are on the network side, government officials in Raleigh and some longtime ACC connections.
I AM SPECULATING with the info I get and from reading. Please keep this in mind.
The ACC realignment aspect is about to ramp up times 10. Now that the key components of CFP agreements, NCAA court settlements, Revenue Sharing and a dissolved PAC 12 are complete, the focus will be on the ACC realignment and legal battles. Between now and July 4 the fireworks are going to pop, the rumors will triple because every entity is trying to protect their own interests from networks, to conferences, to schools.
I have stated before that the ACC/Clemson/ FSU court cases will be settled. They were a means to an end and that is all. The ACC is not going to delay a court process for another 4-5 years to keep the league together. They can't because the networks won't go that route. There has been/is some very crazy network horse trading going on for a year now. But as the finish line is near things really heat up and the twists and turns start to happen before leaders sign on a dotted line.
The rumors that FSU has been approved for the B1G were never false. That happened a year ago. It's why FSU sued to get out because knowing you have a landing spot was the only way their BOT could approve a course of action to get out of the ACC. Then came Clemson. They too have a P2 landing spot, I don't know which. Likely both at this juncture.
Following up, when FSU/Clemson finally depart, Notre Dame is right behind them, not UNC. The Irish have to wait for someone else to move before they can enact their own exit due to Critical Composition Clauses in their own ACC contract that was redesigned during the COVID season.
Now the SEC is fully involved. ESPN giving up FSU, Clemson and Notre Dame to FOX isn't on their to do list. Although I am not a fan of podcasts, the latest intel out there is starting to merge. Not a fan of Lambert, but what he said today is pretty much correct to some degree. This is the first time I have heard him say something that added up. The biggest being that the ACC is absolutely in huge discussions with ESPN about getting that 7 year contract extension. There are so many aspects that go into this including that term serious "horse trading".
The thought process behind the ACC/ESPN contract is that ESPN will renew it, but not at the same rates without FSU/Clemson. The cost for FSU/Clemson to exit is hoped to fill that financial void for the length of the contract for other member schools. I also feel secure that FSU/Clemson leaving will be tied into the new ACC/ESPN contract once finalized to extend to 2036.
There is also talk of ESPN keeping the rights to FSU/Clemson if they go B1G. That requires a massive agreement with FOX. The two biggest networks in football are in obvious discussions. I don't see this as viable (ESPN getting a B1G concession to broadcast games), but ESPN is not getting zero out of FSU/Clemson. That is where the SEC comes in.
When you listen to the Florida AD yesterday talk about agreeing to expand, this is a heads up. ESPN wants FSU/Clemson in the SEC. Their viewership rates will almost double in the SEC and so they are very valuable and both ESPN and the SEC are going to make more money with those two in - guaranteed. The money talks if you are not familiar with the P2 chess game.
Here is where more twists come in...if FSU/Clemson does go B1G, the SEC will make a move to expand. UNC is at the top of the list (not breaking news) and so is UVA. Here is the big kicker:
Given the government stipulations - for UNC and UVA to go SEC that will have to involve both NC State and VT. There I said it. Just relaying another discussion that has taken place. I mentioned back in the winter that both UNC and NC State were already approved for SEC membership. That is what triggered the North Carolina BOG mutiny. That SEC approval came straight from Raleigh back in January.
However, if ESPN extends the ACC contract through 2036, those exit deals for remaining ACC teams get slim. So you can see how every flap of the wing effects each other. The stuff I have heard is mind boggling when it comes to network trading.
Understand, it will be the networks deciding the ACC fate, not the courts. And it's all about to go down. I said before August 15. Now is when this really heats up though. The next month for the ACC is going to be nuts as ever.
Also know there is a composition clause in the ESPN contract that if two or more ACC teams leave then ESPN has the right to nullify the contract. ESPN and other P4 schools will do just about all they can to prevent the ESPN/ACC contract from being made public. This is now available to see through the latest responses to the Florida AG asking for these documents to be made public. The SEC is saying NO and is joining the lawsuit that this info not be released. There is some serious stuff in there that are absolutely trade secret. Enough so that alone can be the reason for settlement.
From the FSU standpoint, they are leaving the ACC with or without a legal settlement. I have said this many times here. They may be forced to pay big time down the line, but the ACC is in seriouis trouble with TV contracts if they do.
It's in everyone's best interest to settle this. The SEC and B1G and FOX and ESPN want this resolved (see how CFP unfolded). That's all that needs said. The P2 is going to get what they want. If you haven't figured this out by now, shame on you. Going to be a very interesting summer.
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 5/30/2024, 3:32:50 PM
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Shortly
As in now. Before July 4 fireworks. The rumors and horse trading are about to ignite with each president, school, conference and network. Buckle up.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
T
What's going to bake everyone's brain when this is settled is the network trading.
ESPN may well retain the rights to FSU/Clemson when they exit. ND is immediately right behind them and get their usual "cake and eat it too" deal.
News will start to emerge shortly.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Kabuki Theater
Contracts voided for lack of consideration exist everywhere. A google search can produce examples.
Benefits gained or lost won't be a factor in these lawsuits when it comes to future media rights. Is the ESPN contract good through 2036 or through 2026 - that's really the only question that needs answered by a judge.
The ACC filed their lawsuit against FSU without taking a member vote. Then took a so-called vote weeks later and declared it retroactive. One judge in North Carolina didn't see an issue. One judge in Florida saw it as forum shopping. Of course it was a race to the courthouse. The ACC lawsuit should have been dismissed and forced to be refiled AFTER a member vote. Then again, we are still talking interpretations, not common sense and signed contracts.
I keep saying however, the courtroom dramatics are kabuki theater. The fait of FSU/Clemson leaving is already decided. Only the cost is left to be determined. FSU has been approved by the networks and the league for a full pro rata move to the B1G. Clemson also knows where they can go. Neither sued the ACC to leave without knowing this. Anything otherwise would be complete business idiocy.
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 5/29/2024, 1:14:11 AM
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
Use 2024 history as a courtroom lesson
All the discussion over legal aspects dominate the ACC/FSU/Clemson topic as of now. It is the media networks that will make the ACC realignment call.
The latest rumors are that ESPN has worked out a position where the ACC can let FSU/Clemson go and keep the ACC together at established contract rates. I'm not sure about those details but I do believe things like this are to be worked out through FOX/ESPN, not the legal process.
USE HISTORY AS A LESSON
In this year of 2024, whether it was the (1) CFP agreement or (2) the House vs. NCAA settlement or (3) the Revenue Sharing settlement...the court rooms were not the decision makers. They certainly played a positioning role much like we are seeing in the ACC legal conundrum right now. No way this drags out for 4-5 more years. The ACC realignment topic is an extreme dwarf comparison to the three aforementioned college football topics. This next round of realignment will all be settled soon.
Conference Realignment Board
2 y ago
The networks will make the decision
All the discussion over legal aspects dominate the ACC/FSU/Clemson topic as of now. It is the media networks that will make the ACC realignment call.
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 5/27/2024, 4:49:38 PM