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It's happening - the ACC summer of crazy
First, I so appreciate being able to come to this forum to discuss realignment respectively.
Sometimes it seems my posts, which seem to go against the VT opinion grain, come across as assured. They are not. I have connections, sources, insiders like everyone else. But even those people don't know for certain and they will say the same. Yes, like any podcaster or X tweet I share what I get told but don't wish to be the person who just throws out malarkey to see what sticks. Connecting the dots to see what is valid or not is an important aspect and actually quite entertaining for a college football lover. The suspense is addictive. So please allow me to share what I get and take it with a grain of salt, agree or not. Most of my friends are on the network side, government officials in Raleigh and some longtime ACC connections.
I AM SPECULATING with the info I get and from reading. Please keep this in mind.
The ACC realignment aspect is about to ramp up times 10. Now that the key components of CFP agreements, NCAA court settlements, Revenue Sharing and a dissolved PAC 12 are complete, the focus will be on the ACC realignment and legal battles. Between now and July 4 the fireworks are going to pop, the rumors will triple because every entity is trying to protect their own interests from networks, to conferences, to schools.
I have stated before that the ACC/Clemson/ FSU court cases will be settled. They were a means to an end and that is all. The ACC is not going to delay a court process for another 4-5 years to keep the league together. They can't because the networks won't go that route. There has been/is some very crazy network horse trading going on for a year now. But as the finish line is near things really heat up and the twists and turns start to happen before leaders sign on a dotted line.
The rumors that FSU has been approved for the B1G were never false. That happened a year ago. It's why FSU sued to get out because knowing you have a landing spot was the only way their BOT could approve a course of action to get out of the ACC. Then came Clemson. They too have a P2 landing spot, I don't know which. Likely both at this juncture.
Following up, when FSU/Clemson finally depart, Notre Dame is right behind them, not UNC. The Irish have to wait for someone else to move before they can enact their own exit due to Critical Composition Clauses in their own ACC contract that was redesigned during the COVID season.
Now the SEC is fully involved. ESPN giving up FSU, Clemson and Notre Dame to FOX isn't on their to do list. Although I am not a fan of podcasts, the latest intel out there is starting to merge. Not a fan of Lambert, but what he said today is pretty much correct to some degree. This is the first time I have heard him say something that added up. The biggest being that the ACC is absolutely in huge discussions with ESPN about getting that 7 year contract extension. There are so many aspects that go into this including that term serious "horse trading".
The thought process behind the ACC/ESPN contract is that ESPN will renew it, but not at the same rates without FSU/Clemson. The cost for FSU/Clemson to exit is hoped to fill that financial void for the length of the contract for other member schools. I also feel secure that FSU/Clemson leaving will be tied into the new ACC/ESPN contract once finalized to extend to 2036.
There is also talk of ESPN keeping the rights to FSU/Clemson if they go B1G. That requires a massive agreement with FOX. The two biggest networks in football are in obvious discussions. I don't see this as viable (ESPN getting a B1G concession to broadcast games), but ESPN is not getting zero out of FSU/Clemson. That is where the SEC comes in.
When you listen to the Florida AD yesterday talk about agreeing to expand, this is a heads up. ESPN wants FSU/Clemson in the SEC. Their viewership rates will almost double in the SEC and so they are very valuable and both ESPN and the SEC are going to make more money with those two in - guaranteed. The money talks if you are not familiar with the P2 chess game.
Here is where more twists come in...if FSU/Clemson does go B1G, the SEC will make a move to expand. UNC is at the top of the list (not breaking news) and so is UVA. Here is the big kicker:
Given the government stipulations - for UNC and UVA to go SEC that will have to involve both NC State and VT. There I said it. Just relaying another discussion that has taken place. I mentioned back in the winter that both UNC and NC State were already approved for SEC membership. That is what triggered the North Carolina BOG mutiny. That SEC approval came straight from Raleigh back in January.
However, if ESPN extends the ACC contract through 2036, those exit deals for remaining ACC teams get slim. So you can see how every flap of the wing effects each other. The stuff I have heard is mind boggling when it comes to network trading.
Understand, it will be the networks deciding the ACC fate, not the courts. And it's all about to go down. I said before August 15. Now is when this really heats up though. The next month for the ACC is going to be nuts as ever.
Also know there is a composition clause in the ESPN contract that if two or more ACC teams leave then ESPN has the right to nullify the contract. ESPN and other P4 schools will do just about all they can to prevent the ESPN/ACC contract from being made public. This is now available to see through the latest responses to the Florida AG asking for these documents to be made public. The SEC is saying NO and is joining the lawsuit that this info not be released. There is some serious stuff in there that are absolutely trade secret. Enough so that alone can be the reason for settlement.
From the FSU standpoint, they are leaving the ACC with or without a legal settlement. I have said this many times here. They may be forced to pay big time down the line, but the ACC is in seriouis trouble with TV contracts if they do.
It's in everyone's best interest to settle this. The SEC and B1G and FOX and ESPN want this resolved (see how CFP unfolded). That's all that needs said. The P2 is going to get what they want. If you haven't figured this out by now, shame on you. Going to be a very interesting summer.
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 5/30/2024, 3:32:50 PM
Posted: 05/30/2024 at 03:25 PM ET
Thread Replies (98)
It's happening - the ACC summer of crazy
◄
-- INSIDE99
May 30, 2024 at 03:25 PM ET
INSIDE99
•
05/30/24 03:25 PM ET
Connecting dots in North Carolina
-- INSIDE99
Jun 04, 2024 at 01:49 PM ET
INSIDE99
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06/04/24 01:49 PM ET
Could be the case, but he seems to be implying a whole lot more, did you
-- Stech
Jun 05, 2024 at 07:25 AM ET
Stech
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06/05/24 07:25 AM ET
rotflmao!!!! **
-- ancient alien 2018
May 31, 2024 at 06:19 PM ET
ancient alien 2018
•
05/31/24 06:19 PM ET
You lost me at ‘’It's in everyone's best interest to settle this”**
-- MrBayAreaHokie
May 31, 2024 at 12:09 AM ET
MrBayAreaHokie
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05/31/24 12:09 AM ET
It's his/her way of saying "I don't know squat but I have people swallowing
-- ancient alien 2018
May 31, 2024 at 06:21 PM ET
ancient alien 2018
•
05/31/24 06:21 PM ET
Yep, if the SEC is essentially lusting for UNC and UVA
-- VTCALS72
May 31, 2024 at 08:16 AM ET
VTCALS72
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05/31/24 08:16 AM ET
He lost me at "Lambert". Total fraud.
-- Maroon Baboon
May 31, 2024 at 01:17 AM ET
Maroon Baboon
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05/31/24 01:17 AM ET
IF this plays out as you have speculated, here is potential impact
-- HokieAl
May 30, 2024 at 10:46 PM ET
HokieAl
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05/30/24 10:46 PM ET
Two problems I notice. First, if the rights are only worth 70 how are they
-- wwhokie1
May 30, 2024 at 11:04 PM ET
wwhokie1
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05/30/24 11:04 PM ET
I think how the ACC would collect is the great unknown.
-- VTCALS72
May 31, 2024 at 08:39 AM ET
VTCALS72
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05/31/24 08:39 AM ET
I think you are overly optimistic. I am not convinced the scenario with
-- wwhokie1
May 30, 2024 at 11:48 PM ET
wwhokie1
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05/30/24 11:48 PM ET
That last paragraph is the real key
-- HokieAl
May 31, 2024 at 12:55 PM ET
HokieAl
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05/31/24 12:55 PM ET
Always a good discussion. And regarding what is in the contract, lawyers
-- wwhokie1
May 31, 2024 at 01:33 PM ET
wwhokie1
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05/31/24 01:33 PM ET
The $64,000 question in your post on who actually owns the rights,
-- Big12 guy
May 31, 2024 at 09:07 AM ET
Big12 guy
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05/31/24 09:07 AM ET
Sure, there are layers of assumptions in this
-- HokieAl
May 30, 2024 at 11:47 PM ET
HokieAl
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05/30/24 11:47 PM ET
Courts are involved. There are contracts
-- SpeakToDamien
May 30, 2024 at 10:45 PM ET
SpeakToDamien
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05/30/24 10:45 PM ET
You don't believe settlements override a courtroom?
-- INSIDE99
May 30, 2024 at 11:50 PM ET
INSIDE99
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05/30/24 11:50 PM ET
Of course. But the ACC has zero motivation to settle
-- SpeakToDamien
May 31, 2024 at 12:24 AM ET
SpeakToDamien
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05/31/24 12:24 AM ET
Only one school has a full unredacted copy of the ESPN contract
-- INSIDE99
Jun 01, 2024 at 01:03 PM ET
INSIDE99
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06/01/24 01:03 PM ET
but anyone in the conference who wanted to read it could go to Charlotte
-- VTCALS72
Jun 01, 2024 at 03:56 PM ET
VTCALS72
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06/01/24 03:56 PM ET
Except Clemson is not a party to the contract so that discussion
-- VTCALS72
Jun 01, 2024 at 07:00 PM ET
VTCALS72
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06/01/24 07:00 PM ET
ACC is focused on long term survival first, they do that by ESPN extending
-- Stech
May 31, 2024 at 11:21 AM ET
Stech
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05/31/24 11:21 AM ET
I don't know how much say ESPN has in all of this, but...
-- BUGGZY
May 30, 2024 at 10:00 PM ET
BUGGZY
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05/30/24 10:00 PM ET
Absolutely, 100% spot on!! ( Thanks Mr. Siegel)!!!**
-- ancient alien 2018
May 31, 2024 at 06:34 PM ET
ancient alien 2018
•
05/31/24 06:34 PM ET
Been Hearing the Next Month is Going to Be Wild a Lot
-- WarHog38
May 30, 2024 at 07:53 PM ET
WarHog38
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05/30/24 07:53 PM ET
It has been more than 50 years.......
-- 2hhoop3
May 31, 2024 at 12:17 PM ET
2hhoop3
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05/31/24 12:17 PM ET
A Lot of That 1St Fiddle Playing was due to Bear Bryant & Nick Saban
-- WarHog38
May 31, 2024 at 09:59 PM ET
WarHog38
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05/31/24 09:59 PM ET
One key point to all of this that must be noted
-- CobbCountyHokie
May 31, 2024 at 09:00 AM ET
CobbCountyHokie
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05/31/24 09:00 AM ET
The FOX angle is why
-- Victor Tango
May 31, 2024 at 10:13 AM ET
Victor Tango
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05/31/24 10:13 AM ET
I agree completely and, I read that Virginia makes up 48%
-- VTCALS72
May 31, 2024 at 09:13 AM ET
VTCALS72
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05/31/24 09:13 AM ET
That's why I think VT would be more desirable to the Big Ten than the SEC
-- hokieZ71
May 31, 2024 at 06:20 AM ET
hokieZ71
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05/31/24 06:20 AM ET
The #1 issue with Vt to the B10 is Maryland
-- VTCALS72
May 31, 2024 at 08:00 AM ET
VTCALS72
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05/31/24 08:00 AM ET
UMD is just not a football school. There is absolutely zero game
-- Sportn
May 31, 2024 at 09:24 PM ET
Sportn
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05/31/24 09:24 PM ET
Maybe to the UMD AD but not to their fan base
-- Vippie1
May 31, 2024 at 10:13 AM ET
Vippie1
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05/31/24 10:13 AM ET
Big to MD, "we lifted you out and gave you the DMV.
-- VTCALS72
Jun 01, 2024 at 01:12 PM ET
VTCALS72
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06/01/24 01:12 PM ET
Maryland loves it when VT comes to College Park and fills 70% of the seats
-- VPIGUY
May 31, 2024 at 04:43 PM ET
VPIGUY
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05/31/24 04:43 PM ET
You forgot the Bruins, but your point stands, it’s a Pro Sports town, Fox
-- Stech
May 30, 2024 at 10:06 PM ET
Stech
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05/30/24 10:06 PM ET
But ESPN HAS to allow that to happen.
-- hokieZ71
May 31, 2024 at 07:50 AM ET
hokieZ71
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05/31/24 07:50 AM ET
Would do it because they already own Florida & South Carolina, new states
-- Stech
May 31, 2024 at 08:22 AM ET
Stech
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05/31/24 08:22 AM ET
I agree with this with both the Big 10, and the SEC. I have expressed
-- Big12 guy
May 30, 2024 at 09:26 PM ET
Big12 guy
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05/30/24 09:26 PM ET
Big 10 national brand is an oxymoron in that context
-- INSIDE99
May 31, 2024 at 12:24 AM ET
INSIDE99
•
05/31/24 12:24 AM ET
I'll expand on this looking backwards...
-- BUGGZY
May 30, 2024 at 09:39 PM ET
BUGGZY
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05/30/24 09:39 PM ET
Texas Was the Big 12 and Before That Was the SWC
-- WarHog38
May 30, 2024 at 11:02 PM ET
WarHog38
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05/30/24 11:02 PM ET
I think the bigger conferences........
-- 2hhoop3
May 30, 2024 at 10:30 PM ET
2hhoop3
•
05/30/24 10:30 PM ET
Yep, Texass is a cancer that will cause a lot of issues.
-- RJHokie
May 30, 2024 at 09:43 PM ET
RJHokie
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05/30/24 09:43 PM ET
Name a conference they haven't destroyed. **
-- Big12 guy
May 30, 2024 at 09:46 PM ET
Big12 guy
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05/30/24 09:46 PM ET
Would ESPN give up UNC and UVA to the Big to get FSU and Clemson?**
-- VTCALS72
May 30, 2024 at 06:25 PM ET
VTCALS72
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05/30/24 06:25 PM ET
I would, but I would prefer to keep them all since I already have them.**
-- wwhokie1
May 30, 2024 at 10:13 PM ET
wwhokie1
•
05/30/24 10:13 PM ET
i Think This is a Good Question
-- WarHog38
May 30, 2024 at 09:42 PM ET
WarHog38
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05/30/24 09:42 PM ET
Sankey said recently he wants to improve basketball in the SEC, the past is
-- Stech
May 30, 2024 at 10:19 PM ET
Stech
•
05/30/24 10:19 PM ET
fsu "leaving with or w/o settlement"...which conference buys them w/o GOR?
-- VT757to276
May 30, 2024 at 04:13 PM ET
VT757to276
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05/30/24 04:13 PM ET
No one is joining another conference without their media rights
-- INSIDE99
May 31, 2024 at 12:34 AM ET
INSIDE99
•
05/31/24 12:34 AM ET
Excellent stuff. A couple of questions. 1. What happens to ND?
-- TDVick
May 30, 2024 at 04:02 PM ET
TDVick
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05/30/24 04:02 PM ET
UNC does not want VT as a competitor
-- VTCALS72
May 30, 2024 at 05:57 PM ET
VTCALS72
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05/30/24 05:57 PM ET
I generally agree, but how much does UNC want UVA to go with them? One
-- TDVick
May 31, 2024 at 07:56 AM ET
TDVick
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05/31/24 07:56 AM ET
And I still disagree that 2011 was anywhere near like the possibility
-- VTCALS72
May 31, 2024 at 08:11 AM ET
VTCALS72
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05/31/24 08:11 AM ET
I think he’s saying UVA and VT to SEC, with UNC and NCSU, you get 2 🏈/🏀
-- Stech
May 30, 2024 at 04:45 PM ET
Stech
•
05/30/24 04:45 PM ET
Tech and State aren't chicken feed in BB either
-- obguthr
May 31, 2024 at 09:41 AM ET
obguthr
•
05/31/24 09:41 AM ET
For a conference that has tried to avoid adding schools in states
-- wwhokie1
May 30, 2024 at 05:51 PM ET
wwhokie1
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05/30/24 05:51 PM ET
The state of South Carolina is about 1/2 the size of Va & NC, also by doing
-- Stech
May 30, 2024 at 07:31 PM ET
Stech
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05/30/24 07:31 PM ET
Its not about the size of the state but the size of the TV viewing audience
-- wwhokie1
May 30, 2024 at 10:34 PM ET
wwhokie1
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05/30/24 10:34 PM ET
It’s about growth/new viewers, in both basketball and football, FSU & Clem-
-- Stech
May 30, 2024 at 10:51 PM ET
Stech
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05/30/24 10:51 PM ET
4 schools in 2 states might bring in more growth, but if it does it comes
-- wwhokie1
May 30, 2024 at 11:31 PM ET
wwhokie1
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05/30/24 11:31 PM ET
“If” 4 go from two states, I expect a ramp up on payment, but they’re ACC $
-- Stech
May 31, 2024 at 12:05 AM ET
Stech
•
05/31/24 12:05 AM ET
I am not saying it is.........
-- 2hhoop3
May 30, 2024 at 05:58 PM ET
2hhoop3
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05/30/24 05:58 PM ET
How else should someone interpret.......
-- 2hhoop3
May 30, 2024 at 03:48 PM ET
2hhoop3
•
05/30/24 03:48 PM ET
Read my previous response.......
-- 2hhoop3
May 30, 2024 at 10:32 PM ET
2hhoop3
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05/30/24 10:32 PM ET
I confused, are you saying FSU and Clemson to the B1G and ND to follow? Or
-- Stech
May 30, 2024 at 03:47 PM ET
Stech
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05/30/24 03:47 PM ET
Interesting is not the word I’d use.
-- Marooned
May 30, 2024 at 03:42 PM ET
Marooned
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05/30/24 03:42 PM ET
Man, that was a post and a half.
-- goldendomer
May 30, 2024 at 03:41 PM ET
goldendomer
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05/30/24 03:41 PM ET
Yes, but very informative if true, and some like TerryD may refute it, but
-- Stech
May 30, 2024 at 03:52 PM ET
Stech
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05/30/24 03:52 PM ET
I think that if the ACC implodes....
-- TerryD
May 30, 2024 at 09:16 PM ET
TerryD
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05/30/24 09:16 PM ET
That’s certainly a possibility, thanks for letting us know what you think.**
-- Stech
May 30, 2024 at 09:53 PM ET
Stech
•
05/30/24 09:53 PM ET
I think it was informative........
-- 2hhoop3
May 30, 2024 at 05:38 PM ET
2hhoop3
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05/30/24 05:38 PM ET
I fully understand your caution, time will tell, but it is plausible IMHO.**
-- Stech
May 30, 2024 at 07:27 PM ET
Stech
•
05/30/24 07:27 PM ET
I was not really trying........
-- 2hhoop3
May 30, 2024 at 08:22 PM ET
2hhoop3
•
05/30/24 08:22 PM ET
I am pretty sure there is no horse trading among the conferences and the
-- 33laszlo99
May 30, 2024 at 09:39 PM ET
33laszlo99
•
05/30/24 09:39 PM ET
There is a mega amount of horse trading among the networks
-- INSIDE99
May 31, 2024 at 01:37 AM ET
INSIDE99
•
05/31/24 01:37 AM ET
With one exception everything you list here as horse trading is simple
-- 33laszlo99
May 31, 2024 at 07:23 AM ET
33laszlo99
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05/31/24 07:23 AM ET
ESPN is getting something out of FSU/Clemson leaving, period.
-- INSIDE99
May 31, 2024 at 11:33 PM ET
INSIDE99
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05/31/24 11:33 PM ET
If ESPN is in control as much as you suggest; they'll simply
-- daveinop
Jun 01, 2024 at 11:39 AM ET
daveinop
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06/01/24 11:39 AM ET
You might want to reconsider.......
-- 2hhoop3
May 30, 2024 at 10:04 PM ET
2hhoop3
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05/30/24 10:04 PM ET