I think SEC is just waiting for clarity in the ACC situation...
the moment they think the league is collapsing, I think they are going to throw up a wall and invite uva, VT, NCSU, unc, Clemson, GT, FSU and Miami. Duke is the only wild card because they are such a huge brand, but I think SEC will be willing to let Duke go to the highest bidder to stay at 24 universities. They can divide into 3 8 school regions for (non-rev) competition.
uva, VT, unc, NCSU, Clemson, USC-e, UK, GT
UT, vandy, Mizzou, uga, UF, FSU, Miami, Alabama
Auburn, Ole Miss, Miss St, Arkansas, LSU, Texas, aTm, OU
for non revs, just play your 7 and whatever else schedule allows before conf tournament
for MBB/WBB, play 23 conf games (everyone once) then play a 24 team conf tournament with 8 byes.
for football, just have a 24 team league, play 2 protected games each and rotate the other 21 teams through every 3 years (7 teams per year). play 3 non conf games. Top 2 teams based on the 9 game conf results play for conference championship.
B1G response would be to complete their western expansion with Stanford, Cal, Colorado, and Kansas, then they will take Duke and Syracuse to get to 24.
we'll have 48 schools coast to cost in 2 leagues with the Big12 surviving as the 3rd league with it's remaining members + SMU, L'ville, Pitt, BC (maybe a few others?)
Wake will join the Sunbelt.
ND will go full circle, rejoin BE for non football and remain independent.
I can't wait to see how wrong all of this is.
51 Replies
2y
But no plan goes perfectly. Some moves will be proactive and aggressive. Some will be reactionary and defensive. Some moves will be forced. And some moves will be hard to predict because sometimes people do unexpected things (especially when we have so many individual schools involved).
The ACC is not a threat and has a lot of unknowns regarding timing of breakup. So they might not have detailed plans yet.
I get the sense that both the SEC and BIG are pausing to see how two things shake out over the next 2-3 years. And it's more internal. They first need to evaluate their new reality.
1. How much of the expanded playoff do they actually control? And do they win it? If not, what adjustments are needed to get that control and money (maybe more teams)?
2. How do the schools feel about the current expansion and travel changes and schedule changes (especially in the BIG)? What works and what doesn't? What makes sense for further expansion to keep everyone happy, get an expanded media contract, and control the playoff?
(In response to this post by BUGGZY)
S
Stech
2y
what is in the contract with them and the ACC. If all of the Mag 7 go to a P2 then it will probably be split with 4 to the B1G waiting on ND of course and 3-4 going to the SEC. I do think the best number to maximize TV coverage is 48. Otherwise you have some big markets missing.
Last week I felt different about what schools would go where, (haha) but this week I could see FSU, UNC, UVA and Miami to the B1G. I now could see Clemson, NCSU and Virginia Tech to the SEC. Clemson is the biggest wild card and I still think that Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky and probably Tennessee don't want them because it will hurt their recruiting and they already have that state/area dominated. Ha ha I just countered my own prediction. :-)
However, next week, I will probably say something different. :-) My favorite is still Virginia Tech, Virginia, North Carolina and North Carolina State to the SEC, with B1G a close second. However, I am really starting to wonder strongly about the UNC and UVA sports having to be cut or find another conference for their Olympic Sports. Olympic Sports success is a huge part of who they are in the college sports world.
** Edited by Stech at 5/9/2024, 1:29:13 PM
(In response to this post by BUGGZY)
2y
and Clemson. Sankey will grudgingly take on two more in The SEC and will accept four if the schools insist and ESPN will pay. The B1G is looking for an opportunity to break the Southeastern monopoly. If they can land FSU and Miami, mission accomplished. The SEC will not spend a full media payout to shield GT from The B1G. If The B1G wants GT, let them have her and see how well they can compete for recruits and viewers against the neighbors: UGA, Clemson, FSU, Gators, Auburn, 'Bama, Tennessee.
The B1G might want GT anyway for the same reasons they embraced Rutgers, bonne chance.
(In response to this post by Stech)
2y
(In response to this post by 33laszlo99)
2y
They both can get way more regional. The SEC could be
VT, STATE, FSU, CU, Miami and WVU
USCe, GA, FLA, Vandy, UTenn, KY
Bama, AU, LSU, ARK, OLE MISS, MSU
TEXAS, TAMU, OU, MIzzou, KU and OkState
BIG
Uva, ND, UNC, PSU, MD and GT
Mich, MSU, OSU, IU, Purdue, Rutgers
Ill, NW, WISC, Iowa, Minn, Nebraska
USC, Oreg, Wash, Ucla, Stan and Cal
There is 8 six team divisions. ND forced in league.
(In response to this post by BUGGZY)
2y
No way they go to 24 without them. 18 or 22 is not manageable long term. They will stick at 20 until ND decides to join.
(In response to this post by MrFantastic!)
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TerryD
2y
ND didn't negotiate a new NBC deal, a new playoff deal that includes a $6 million dollar bonus every year it makes the playoffs as an independent and pushed for Cal, Stanford and SMU to the ACC just to run up a white flag and surrender to the Big Ten.
(In response to this post by Sunsetunderground)
2y
(In response to this post by Sunsetunderground)
2y
Timing and what TV/ both the two power conferences desire make decision.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
2y
negotiations will trigger this massive break away that many predict, and I think will never happen.
Either your school gives those conference more money, or they don't. The SEC and Big 10 have already achieved their end game, and a few pieces will fit, but they already got their money and competitive advantage, there is nothing else for them to gain.
(In response to this post by MrFantastic!)
2y
I still see them as P1 and P1, each maneuvering for supremacy. And despite the relative value of expansion candidates, I think there are many, many moves to be made. The drama in The ACC deflects attention away from the more imminent consolidation of FBS football out west.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
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2hhoop3
2y
out west do you see still needing consolidation that has relevance to the P2 or P1 vs. P1?
(In response to this post by 33laszlo99)
2y
footprint. If you remind advertisers that 80% of the audience is in The East, they will tell you that they still want the other 20%.
ESPN: P4 - Calford & four corners (shared); G5 - UTEP & NMS (CUSA); FCS - all 15.
Fox: P4 - Four coastal schools & four corners (shared); MWC or projected New PAC; FCS - none
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
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2hhoop3
2y
if any relevant to P2 or P1 and with FOX already dominating the ad footprint not a lot of motivation to consolidate further on their part.
(In response to this post by 33laszlo99)
2y
But it will be fatter than the others. Who knows if Fox gets their way, but if they take only the top six MWC and top four AAC, those two G5's will be badly deflated. The MAC is somewhat lame and The SBC has had a revolving door lately. G5's have been cannibalized by P4's and each other. The New PAC will not belong in the same category.
It's is still just a projection, but Fox didn't insert themselves into the PAC media deal because they like to help orphaned FB programs.
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
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2hhoop3
2y
and the chart in your previous post was good I thought. Only two(the PAC leftovers) not assigned west of Mississippi and maybe a couple in Big 12, so really not a lot to consolidate.
(In response to this post by 33laszlo99)
2y
I think all are accounted for. Northern Colorado has drifted up into NE Washington somehow.
** Edited by 33laszlo99 at 5/10/2024, 10:51:39 AM
** Edited by 33laszlo99 at 5/10/2024, 10:52:50 AM
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
2y
Is there another force out there willing to up Money for something more regional. Yet all across America? More fan friendly across nation? It will come time there is a select bunch. I just wonder the # ? 32? 40? 44? 48? No one knows. We all guess.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
2y
as everyone agrees with, I don't see 48 teams being paid $100M, and dividing up the playoff money evenly. I think it's just wishful thinking for the bubble teams.
(In response to this post by MrFantastic!)
2y
I also think that UVA would prefer the Big 10. They do not fit in with the SEC culture at all.
(In response to this post by BUGGZY)
2y
The door is not open.
No one knew of the GT battle as a a member of the SEC. They were powers of the conference with alabama, however,
Bobby Dodd, was a gentlemen, and embraced the student athlete, academic goals and ethics. at the same time, he had a gruff coach at Alabama who was embracing just the athlete not the academics. On many of the challenges of the SEC in the early nineteen sixties, GT was fighting a losing battle with what 'Alabama' represented, and they felt at the time GT was like PSU and ND (other great independents with standards), so they said we can do just as good as an independent. Well......
Finally, they got in the ACC in 1978, (guess conference life was better)...
SEC got the Alabama market dont need GT, you expand to increase rights and market share. GT does neither. And for the late Bobby Dodd, who would now roll in his grave, its all business... academics just a side.
(In response to this post by Sunsetunderground)
W
WBGV
2y
members. The SEC has added only 4 members (counting Texas and OU) over the last 30+ years. I think current SEC members would be content not adding any schools, but would be willing to take two schools to stay even with the B1G. There is a slim chance that they could add 4 schools, but two seems more likely at this time. Clemson and North Carolina would be the top targets IMO if the SEC decides to expand.
(In response to this post by BUGGZY)
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daveinop
2y
in a populous area is going to be left behind in a conference contraction/consolidation exercise. Financially/viewership-wise, it makes no sense, and politically it would be suicide.
** Edited by daveinop at 5/9/2024, 2:01:16 PM
** Edited by daveinop at 5/9/2024, 4:56:20 PM
** Edited by daveinop at 5/9/2024, 5:01:19 PM
(In response to this post by WBGV)
I'm not sure why people leave Arizona and Arizona State out of the
conversation. UA is a massive BB brand. ASU is enormous and in a large media market. Both are in a growing part if the nation. Both are AAU. Seems to be good in athletics in general.
** Edited by Maroon Baboon at 5/9/2024, 11:17:45 AM
(In response to this post by BUGGZY)
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TDVick
2y
would be a lot more desirable than people are suggesting. If one day the SEC had Kentucky, Duke, UNC, Kansas and Arizona they would OWN basketball. In contrast, the B10 would have UCLA, Indiana and Michigan - no comparison.
If conferences aren't moving on these schools, it makes me think that the deck gets completely reshuffled and conferences get picked from scratch sometime around 2030.
** Edited by TDVick at 5/9/2024, 1:33:12 PM
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
2y
Missouri is the only team that doesn't fit but they were the best available when A&M jumped. If they wouldn't add OK State they certainly won't add Arizona schools.
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
E
EDGEMAN
2y
Now Kansas (Red-leggers) would be out of place in the SEC...lol
(In response to this post by Sunsetunderground)
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TDVick
2y
(In response to this post by EDGEMAN)
AZ gives them a new time zone and big market, OK State doesn't.
If they want to keep it Southern, I get it. But eventually, one of these two P2 models is going to win out over the other. Not sure which.
(In response to this post by Sunsetunderground)
2y
most money per school. Currently, they are about $20 per school behind the Big10.
Which teams can add the value for ESPN to come off that kind of money?
(In response to this post by Sunsetunderground)
You're being way too practical in terms of geography 😄
(In response to this post by BUGGZY)
2y
Take it for what it's worth and I'm not advocated it so don't shoot the messenger. He speculates that the B1G will expand to 20 with FSU and Miami which he has said for quite a while. He also said he is hearing that the SEC will eventually expand to 18 or 20 schools. UNC and Clemson are the first two. Carolina brings the brand and Clemson brings playoff distribution credits to increase payout. He did say this will take some time (2-3 years). He said if the SEC goes to 20 that UVa and Kansas are the schools that he is hearing will be invited. He feels that basketball will be a priority for the SEC. He also mentioned that NC State could put a wrench into this if they can successfully attach themselves to the Tarheels. I know there is a connection politically between UVa and Va Tech and maybe this will keep the schools together. He didn't say how the schools will get out of their current conferences. Kansas has a GOR with the XII. I'm not saying this is the gospel but this guy has had some predictions that have come true (USC, UW and UO/B1G and Four Corners/XII). His prediction of Kansas comes from a source that he eludes to as a Missouri source. Says this with Kansas is not imminent nor guaranteed.
** Edited by Millpoint at 5/9/2024, 10:30:35 AM
** Edited by Millpoint at 5/9/2024, 10:53:52 AM
** Edited by Millpoint at 5/9/2024, 10:54:21 AM
** Edited by Millpoint at 5/9/2024, 11:13:05 AM
** Edited by Millpoint at 5/9/2024, 11:19:37 AM
** Edited by Millpoint at 5/9/2024, 3:53:55 PM
(In response to this post by BUGGZY)
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HOO86
2y
With Missouri in there, I think that's a rivalry.
(In response to this post by Millpoint)
2y
Unfortunately, I'm afraid that is very unlikely. Just can't see the financial value in the SEC adding all those schools. But if the goal of the SEC is absolute control of the Southeast and Atlantic Coast up to DC, that would do it. Draw and boundary and let the B10 take what they want anywhere else. Still seems like wishful thinking.
(In response to this post by BUGGZY)
2y
(In response to this post by MrFantastic!)
E
EDGEMAN
2y
...to the SEC contract. (TIC)
Yeah, adding teams will dilute the payout unless they can find additional revenue streams.
(In response to this post by wwhokie1)
2y
If they all agreed same rev sharing like nfl, they may not care. That said if have to see to believe,
(In response to this post by wwhokie1)
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VTCALS72
2y
and those 8 call a meeting and vote to end the conference. No attorneys needed.
(In response to this post by BUGGZY)
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Truthahn
2y
That is assuming eight teams and no less can dissolve the ACC.
If eight is too many for the B10, then offer up VT and NC State to the SEC.
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
E
EDGEMAN
2y
8 wins the floor, with 10 possible.
Just win baby!
(In response to this post by BUGGZY)
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WarHog38
2y
Sankey has made vague statements very contrary to what your OP envisions. However Sankey has no past to judge the sincerity of his vague remarks. Sankey said absolutely nothing publicly about Texas & Oklahoma entering the SEC until the Aggies leaked that it was already a done deal. Sankey has little past to judge on expansion.
I do think the SEC is soon going to 9 game schedule. Texas & Oklahoma have already been attending SEC President meetings and the Longhorns recently leaked that the SEC was going to a 9 Game SEC schedule in 2026. It was delayed two years because many SEC teams had 4 OOC's scheduled for those future years. Can be expensive to break those contracts.
You would probably have to trade the positions of Missouri & Auburn in your divisions. Auburn, Alabama,Georgia & Tennessee all have specific rivalries between them that must be played yearly. Auburn/Georgia, Auburn/Alabama, Alabama/Tennessee are the rivalries.
(In response to this post by BUGGZY)
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Vippie1
2y
you still have to get most SEC schools (two-thirds, three quarters?) to agree to any expansion. And everyone has a different agenda. Until the Commish knows exactly what combination he wants to advocate for, how can he grease the wheels internally have any real "deal" out there.
(In response to this post by WarHog38)
2y
competitive with the Big 10. Currently, there is an approximately $20M spread between the two media contracts. An expansion to get ESPN to come up with that kind of money may not be out there.
(In response to this post by Vippie1)
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WarHog38
2y
Sankey does just have input. He has no vote. The vote requires a 3/4 majority of the presidents. That will require 12 members when Texas & Oklahoma soon join on June 30, 2024.
(In response to this post by Vippie1)
2y
Who knows what his end game is when it comes to expansion. But I’d expect he’s engineering the outcome he wants, not waiting to see how the pieces fall. We can only hope Virginia Technos on his short list.
(In response to this post by WarHog38)