The ACC does not equal the PAC
Unlike the PAC the ACC has not and likely will not do anything stupid, like turn down a reasonable TV offer. As long as the ACC keeps trudging along it will survive. All the doomsday hysteria is silly.
64 Replies
2y
ACC 2030
Boston College
Wake Forest
Syracuse
SMU
James Madison
East Carolina
Memphis
South Florida
Tulane
UAB
(In response to this post by VT ChemE 1986)
2y
eventual existence in the sports world. No need to fret ever again.
(In response to this post by HokieNoVA)
Delete SMU and add Liberty
(In response to this post by HokieNoVA)
2y
(In response to this post by CrystalCoveHokie)
2y
(In response to this post by CrystalCoveHokie)
V
VPI 1924
2y
More to come later.
(In response to this post by HokieNoVA)
2y
Whoever leaves will be replaced by someone of Notre Dame”s choosing.
** Edited by Millpoint at 4/21/2024, 11:47:23 AM
(In response to this post by VT ChemE 1986)
I
INSIDE99
2y
the ACC money pool will shrink significantly after networks renegotiate a new contract. How schools deal with the financial hit will write the future of the league.
The ACC leaders have already accepted Tier 2 status before any member left. The evidence is in the new CFP revenue distribution acceptance. Tier 2 status acceptance is the complete reason FSU and Clemson have sued to get out. They want to compete financially on the same level as their SEC rivals and that is not happening now or in the future for the ACC. The money gap is already there and is only going to get bigger.
(In response to this post by Millpoint)
S
Stech
2y
Sports fit very well in the ACC, even more so with Stanford and Cal in Northern California and SMU in Dallas. ND recruits nationally for all sports, so the additions made them happier, even if they made a few in the ACC mad. Jim Dame Phillips IMHO preserved the Conference by making these moves, and even publicly said so.
(In response to this post by Millpoint)
2
2hhoop3
2y
I do not give a damn what makes the teams most vocal about leaving either happy or mad. It is time the combined conference come together, quit letting the little tails(would call them something else but, tails is a good substitute) wag the dog and tell them leave the money, all of it, at the door and don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.
(In response to this post by Stech)
2y
Quite begging pay the money and move on or shut up and play.
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
S
saret
2y
All they have to do is pay the money and go where they want (or who will have them). Why a large group of members allow a vocal minority seemingly dictate terms is beyond me (sounds familiar). Call their bluff, and the door can swing naturally where it belongs.
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
2y
how much money to leave at the door, and then the door will hit them on their backside when they leave. You just might get what you just advocated for. Good, bad, or ugly, I'm not sure that is what's best for the ACC moving forward.
(In response to this post by saret)
2y
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
2y
I'm w/ @Saret. Pay your money and leave.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
S
saret
2y
If someone doesn't want to be in a conference, let'em go. Pay the agreed upon withdrawal amounts, and don't let the door hit you where the good lord split ya. And, as far as your opining on "...they are negotiating how much money to leave at the door,..." shame on the ACC if they are negotiating. They signed onto the agreement(s), so pay up and get out.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
E
EDGEMAN
2y
They need to pay their fair share on their way out. Would also consider suing F$U for damages as they degrading the value of the ACC.
(In response to this post by saret)
ESPN will sweet talk the ACC presidents and FSU and Clemson...
will only pay half of what they should.
(In response to this post by EDGEMAN)
I
INSIDE99
2y
The look on ACC member faces thinking December 3 had nothing to do with them.
(In response to this post by Old Line Hokie)
S
saret
2y
(In response to this post by Old Line Hokie)
M
Marooned
2y
FSU and CU affect the value of their TV rights in the current market. It will inform any decision about negotiating exit fees. It’s doubtful that either side wants this to play out in the courts.
(In response to this post by Old Line Hokie)
2y
the only sweet talk that ESPN could do. Preserve a 4th power conference.
(In response to this post by HokiesACC2004)
D
DrHokie
2y
IF the ACC continues as a conference it will be a very mellow version...imho
(In response to this post by VT ChemE 1986)
S
Stech
2y
it won’t be the same. However, even if the Mag 7+1 leave, it can survive by getting the same G-5 additions like the the Big 12 was able to do.
** Edited by Stech at 4/20/2024, 10:36:50 PM
(In response to this post by DrHokie)
M
Marooned
2y
Zona and Utah are very competitive programs. CU will add eyeballs with Prime as well.
(In response to this post by Stech)
V
VPI_1998
2y
maybe even thrive behind the P2. This assumes they keep everyone else and bring in South Florida to get a major Florida school in a large metro area back in. If UNC leaves in addition to FSU Clemson, that will be the straw that breaks the camel's back and then I think the ACC will break up.
(In response to this post by DrHokie)
S
Stech
2y
game at Chapel Hill? I have been to a couple, and it’s not an SEC, or Virginia Tech or even a West Virginia atmosphere. It’s more like UVA’s than those. Now when they introduced the basketball team, the place went nuts. Their 🏈 ratings on TV aren’t anything special either. If John Skipper the former President of ESPN, wasn’t so adamant about getting them in the SEC/ESPN, I think think their Academic people would have prevailed and they would go to the B1G when they leave, but with their new Chancellor, that is doubtful now.
(In response to this post by Millpoint)
2y
But SEC wants into North Carolina and they are the flagship.
(In response to this post by Stech)
S
Stech
2y
(In response to this post by Millpoint)
2y
have been to all of the ACC venues in NC. It's not even close - NC State seemed to have the best atmosphere, and they were having a bad year - but at least even I saw potential. Not so at Chapel Hill, Duke, or Wake. Absolutely nothing like the SEC, BIG, or even B12 venues (not all). Football is just different in the South, Texas, and flyover States where the entire State population will stop what they are doing if their team is in the hunt for a conference championship,
Wake was recently ranked, and was pulling in less than 30,000 fans. That would never happen in the SEC.
(In response to this post by Stech)
S
Stech
2y
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
2y
(In response to this post by VPI_1998)
2y
got $25M a year from ESPN (reported). FOX made up the rest of the B12's media deal.
Do you think FOX will bid on some of your content? As long as ESPN has the exclusive, and they do, they have the ACC by the proverbial ____'s. You are right - the ACC could very well survive if the only lose two. If they lose 4, it's all over but the crying in my humble opinion, as ESPN's deal without FOX's money will not be enough to keep the middle tier teams with realistic P2 aspirations in the fold.
Unless the ACCN network comes through with the dollars, I'm not sure how they get the media contract to remain competitive. This all comes down to how much ESPN is willing to pay - nothing more, or nothing less. Either the leftovers are competitive with B12 money, or they are not.
We don't know what will happen with the media deal, but there is nothing else that even comes close to being a factor in the schools decisions. There will be another round of expansion or consolidation (whatever you want to call it), and VT, as with any school not in the P2 will have to position themselves for the next round. Is that the ACC, or the B12?
Truthfully, I don't know - but that auto in the playoffs, and the playoff money is HUGE moving forward. Everyone here knows, or should know, that I prefer the ACC stay together - but I honestly felt the same way about the PAC. 5 power conferences spread out the votes. 4 power conferences gave the P2 more power and money. 3 power conferences, and it's all but done. The next round of contract negotiations and playoff money negotiations would becomes a 2-1 vote, and that does not bode well unless you have a full share of the P2.
(In response to this post by VT ChemE 1986)
S
Stech
2y
ESPN can’t afford to particularly ignore the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast in 🏀. Also add that the B12 lost Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Missouri and even Colorado for about a dozen years and survived, means the ACC is more like the B12 than the PAC. I think the mainly B12 and FSU people with their agendas predicting the demise of the of the ACC, as Mark Twain would say, is vastly overstated.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
2y
of the media contracts - and so far, ESPN has ignored the North east. I don't know how they will treat the mid Atlantic, but unless the regular season numbers in basketball improve, I don't think it will be a driver in the money part.
Yormark has said that in the next round of negotiations, he wants to separate the basketball content, but as much of a basketball fan that I am, I'm not convinced the numbers will pan out for regular season games. The money in basketball will be like you and I have discussed in the past with a consolidation of the tournament monies going to the sweet 16, and an expansion that will allow the smaller conferences to play themselves into an "invite" (read, money).
I see the clickbait like the rest of you guys, and your conference is on the hot seat - but if it's just FSU and Clemson that bolt, I think the ACC will be just fine. If UNC leaves - .... - it will be a different discussion in my opinion.
Until I'm blue in the face - it will all come down to ESPN's extension of the contract. We can go back and forth on who is worthy, who is better, football vs basketball, academics, ... etc - but it will be the media and playoff money that will determine what will be in VT's future, and puts them in the best position for their athletics to compete nationally. No different than any school that does not have an invite to the P2.
(In response to this post by Stech)
V
VTCALS72
2y
I have seen us have to play as an independent and later BE member when our main area was in love with the ACC. That being against your area is an uphill climb. I can tell you that the ACC area will not be in love with the XII as a permanent thing and will not embrace non P2 teams from that far away. That is especially true when there will be so many P2 teams much closer.
I understand you want the XII to be the strongest it can be for whatever school you are a fan of. You want the XII to be at least a P 2 1/2. Whether Miami and UNC join the P2 or not, the XII is just not marketable in the east with the P2 already there.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
The worst case scenario is being the #4 football conference...
while the best case scenario is being #3. Minus Clemson and FSU would clearly make the Big 12 the #3 football conference. It seems like South Florida is the most realistic option to replace FSU. Hopefully Cal and Stanford would wise up and rejoin the new revamped Pac-12 so the ACC can be true to its name.
(In response to this post by VT ChemE 1986)
V
VTCALS72
2y
Their biggest brands are T Tech and BYU. That is not the same as VT, Lville, NCSU not to mention Miami and UNC. Actually I think VT, NCSU, Pitt, Lville, UVA and GT equal the best the XII has right now.
(In response to this post by Old Line Hokie)
T
TDVick
2y
and UCF. Assuming VT can't get out. I'd obviously prefer us to be in the 1) SEC 2) B10, but I think there is a way that the ACC can stay ahead of the B12. Other than the SEC, the travel for these conferences is going to be terrible.
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
2y
BYU has a good brand, probably one of the better ones in the Big 12. But Texas Tech? Seriously?
The best remaining brands in the Big 12 are, in no particular order, BYU, WVU, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Arizona State, Colorado and Arizona. Maybe Utah. The best brand in Texas may be Baylor. The Big 12's draw in Texas is not any individual brand, but the presence of four respectable ones.
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
2y
Not sure that TT and BYU are even the biggest brands in the updated Big 12.
WVU, Arizona, Utah, UCF, Colorado, Houston...
What will be the issues for the ACC going forward are two factors.
1. Teams that have appeal to the big 2: UNC and Miami (and ND) -> results in perpetual instability; I think the Big 12 has already been "picked dry" by the big 2.
2. Teams that bring little to no value: BC, WF. Even the lowest teams in the Big 12 (maybe Iowa State or K-State?) have a decent loyal fan base and play ok.
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
2y
coming realignment. But comparing how the ACC remainders stack-up against The Big12 doesn't answer the question. If you want to take that approach first, fine. Then make a list of The ACC schools. Cross out the ones you think are leaving. Now estimate how much of the TV viewership left with those top-tier schools (FSU, Clemson, UNC, etc.). What percentage remains? If you are ESPN, how much are you willing to invest in that roster? What if ND moves-on... how much?
Now consider ESPN's situation with The SEC. The SEC Game of The Week is moving from CBS to ABC this season. ESPN paid over $300 million to get that content back from CBS. They will make room for it on ABC every Saturday night. Add in the extra games from Texas and Oklahoma that ESPN is counting on for big ratings. They need more premium windows and The ACC becomes less necessary, having fewer hot properties.
The ESPN offer could be tepid, and that is what could trigger movement of more ACC schools.
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
V
VTCALS72
2y
Your response is like the ACC is a whole something rather than being the 14 or whatever number of teams. As you say, the P2 pretty much has or will have all the premium windows, especially in the lower mid atlantic/southeast area. You also assume there is anyplace that can offer more than the "tepid" offer.
I believe the XII's next offer will be tepid as well as they have no one to fill a premium window either. I believe that the XII got a big bonus just to be a stable place until media can find a financially solvent mid level scenario. That will not be a conference that stretches from the 4 corners to the east coast.
(In response to this post by 33laszlo99)
2y
bragging rights as "third best conference." "ACC - We're number three!" Sorry, but that race will soon be over and The ACC won't even be close. The ACC can be viewed as individual schools, if you prefer. But a media offer will be for the whole package. It might be worth sticking together if there is enough will among those left behind. The media deal offered will not be stellar and that may cause some schools to abandon ship.
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
V
VTCALS72
2y
Maybe because the current XII is in way more of a P2 desert, they have more opportunity to do better than if most of their schools were within say 250 miles of 4 or 5 P2 schools. VT is not in a P2 desert and under the worst case scenarios VT would be surrounded by Tennessee to the West, UVA and MD to the NE and UNC/NCST to the southeast. If NCSU was left out of the P2 they would be in the same boat as would GT (UGA), Pitt (PSU) and Louisville (KY)
My whole point, the XII does well within their area but they do nothing to show how the XII would provide anything to help any of the above ACC schools where the shadow of the P2 looms much larger.
As for your graphs, 1st Neilson leaves out so much it is not a reliable predictor of anything. I would guess the XII had something similar as to dire consequences when OU and Texas left. My guess is that even losing 4 teams, the ACC would still be in the same payout ballpark as the XII.
(In response to this post by 33laszlo99)
2y
concerning the ACCN, if you're interested. They do not support your thesis.
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
V
VTCALS72
2y
I am not optimistic at all. What I know is that VT could be a positive for the SEC and together we could make a lot more for football than either UVA or UNC. But that would take some longshots happening. And not sure we could do that in the Big and certainly not with only XII backing.
VT's football future all depends on what happens with our "neighbors." If the ACC has VT,UVA, NCSU to go along with GT, Lvill and Pitt, then that is enough to form something that will provide VT with more than the XII can provide. But that is still not very much. And yes, I do believe the XII will be at a level along with the ACC and PAC with one exception and that is a full merger between the PAC 2, whoever is left in the ACC and the XII all with one commissioner but working as 3 independent divisions. Under that, I think all 3 divisions or independent leagues would have to have all the facilities like each ACC teams do under the ACCN. Each will have to produce their own football content. I don't believe big media will invest any time in Blacksburg or Stillwater, Morgantown or anywhere else in the "new ACC and XII. Instead I believe big media but will buy specific content to stream through their headquarters dub in their announcers and put it out.
If the above is right, the XII better get a network right away.
There is a reason big media is bringing all national talent into just 2 leagues and it isn't for any of PAC2, XII or ACC to rise up and compete.
(In response to this post by 33laszlo99)
2y
Big 12 confused with Big Sky. "If the ACC has VT,UVA, NCSU to go along with GT, Lvill and Pitt, then that is enough to form something that will provide VT with more than the XII can provide." Did you take a look at those TV viewership estimates? How does The New ACC overcome that?
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
Just looking at avg. football atttendance
the Big 12 has a better football fan base if you take out Clemson (81,000) and FSU (78,000). If it's all about football, the Big 12 has more potential just based on football fan bases. Virginia Tech had the highest average attendance of all the ACC/Big 12 schools (minus Texas, Oklahoma, Clemson and FSU) in 2023.
Big 12 with the 4 corner additions:
60,000+ avg. = 2 members (BYU and Iowa State)
50,000-59,999 avg. = 8 members
40,000 - 49,999 avg. = 6 members
ACC with 3 new additions:
60,000+ avg. = 1 member (Virginia Tech)
50,000 - 59,999 avg. 3 members
40,000 - 49,999 avg. 3 members (2 of them closer to 40,000)
30,000 - 39,999 avg. 6 members
under 30,000 avg. 2 members (Duke and SMU)
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
2y
will bring a better media deal next time in my opinion, but I don't really disagree with you on the schools you listed. None of them are below the B12, except maybe GT - but even they have gotten the message.
If UNC and Miami stay in the ACC, we will have 4 power conferences, not 3 - and the debate as to which is the better football conference has yet to be determined, as I see a lot of parity between the ACC and B12 after FSU and Clemson.
The only advantage I see that the B12 would have over the ACC would be that the B12 doesn't have the small privates at the lower end. CAL could be a sleeping giant, but it's Berkely, so probably not. Stanford will be competitive anywhere they end up, but may not ever garner the eyeballs of passionate fans other schools enjoy. SMU may buy themselves a football team, but they too have a small footprint with media. Cuse, BC, and Wake need to reassess where they fit, and the same goes for Duke. Like KU, they have the basketball brand, but unlike KU, they have a small alumni base.
The bottom of the B12 is Houston. Central Florida has the largest upside, and I'll withhold judgement on Cincy - lets see what they can do with power conference recruiting. BYU is the fasted growing religion in the US, but a ND they will never be. They get the eyeball though - we will see.
The bottom 6 of the ACC are far lower than the bottom 6 of the B12.
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
V
VTCALS72
2y
I don't think so and that was the point I made in response.
And remember this, Cuse, BC and even Wake have a better history than the bottom of the XII. Duke, who knows but if they went at it, they have the $$$ to be upper XII level. So to me upper about =. Bottom, advantage to XII at present but over time TBD. On the field I'll take mine and play yours.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
2y
What team in team in the Big 12 has a worse football history than WF?
Unless you just mean that WF has been playing since the 19th century [definitely teams with shorter football histories].
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
V
VTCALS72
2y
certainly as the lower half of the XII. And for sure, more VT fans can drive down to Winston-Salem much easier and cheaper than flying to most XII locations.
(In response to this post by GALOISGROUP)
2y
the bottom 6 of your conference. I think that may be the difference moving forward - at least with what the media companies will pay.
** Edited by Big12 guy at 4/20/2024, 3:32:59 PM
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
V
VPI 1924
2y
Houston is probably the wealthiest and greatest city in America.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
2y
You can have it, and you should check your stats.
(In response to this post by VPI 1924)
V
VPI_1998
2y
gases - which everyone knows it's made of cheese! Sheesh - some people...
(In response to this post by VPI 1924)
2y
(In response to this post by VPI 1924)