jmanatVT
J
7,317
Posts
0
Threads
2,592
Likes
Member since:
January 17, 2008
Last post:
05/12/2023 08:36 AM ET
Posting History (91)
Men's Basketball Board
5 mo ago
"It's called basketball" - You probably have forgotten just how strange and
bad it was and linked is a great recap where SB Nation/Secret Base dubs it "The Worst College Basketball Game"
The Lounge
1 y ago
The Lounge
2 y ago
Women's Basketball Board
2 y ago
Football Board
3 y ago
Football Board
3 y ago
Conference Realignment Board
3 y ago
The data shows that not every cord cutter is subscribing to an OTT provider
many are opting to pick up only on demand services Netflix, Disney+, Paramount, Hulu, etc. I can find an article if you don't believe me they are on here and elsewhere.
The point being the days of ESPN having the clout to be included in and make money off the nearly universal choice, e.g. basic cable, are over.
Conference Realignment Board
3 y ago
Yeah, but I'd point out that they have historically trailed UMD who isn't
exactly lighting the world on fire, let alone lighting a candle on fire for that matter, in the Big10.
Conference Realignment Board
3 y ago
Virginia Tech has played at Byrd Stadium just twice since 2000. #2 and #28
in all time attendance at the Byrd (2005 and 2009, respectively). #1 is 59k against PSU in 1975. #2 out of 70 years of games, ~300? 3 is WVU in '83, #4 is Alabam in '74. There's a reason the 2014 VT@UMD game was scheduled to be played in the 71k M&T Bank Stadium.
There was an article out there that VT Football had the best TV ratings in the DMV, but that was old and I can't find it. Not sure it would have changed though.
Conference Realignment Board
3 y ago
Yikes, VT's worst finish since 2005. Granted, that was in the cards
after the worst fall as far back as I've bothered to look (before 2015).
But thanks for saying top 55 so we could be in your stat :-).
Conference Realignment Board
3 y ago
Imagine your school being smack dab in the middle of your alumni base and
having issues selling tickets...
Conference Realignment Board
3 y ago
I think he means the importance of ratings in valuations is trending up.
As opposed to 10 years ago when it was about getting into markets--everyone was paying the sports subscriptions in their basic package whether they were watching ESPN, etc or not.
In other words, Rutgers' 7 fans don't bring a chunk of everyone in NYC (as much and decreasing) anymore.
Edit: Wow, how did I miss that there was a reply already...shame.
** Edited by jmanatVT at 6/28/2023, 9:09:38 AM
Conference Realignment Board
3 y ago
Speaking of bowl payouts, probably lost out on others, too?
Fenway (Can't find payout; UVA withdrew), Military Bowl (~$2M BC withdrew), Sun Bowl ($4M - Miami replaced), Holiday Bowl ($6.5M UCLA withdrew from playing NCST)
So, 4 out of 10 bowls weren't played; did that $12-15M still get paid? I'd guess not.
If that's the case the Orange Bowl's ~$28M + 12M + Fenway = 40M, that's $2.85M per school.
Conference Realignment Board
3 y ago
BC wasn't happy to have spent $800k more than FSU satisfying the conference
bowl tie-in. A news search shows they traveled despite withdrawing.
Conference Realignment Board
3 y ago
Until whatever the new agreement is, the conference paid expenses
for bowls and the championship game (travel, I think a portion of unsold tickets for bowls), etc.
Pitt 41.3 -- ACC CG travel to charlotte, Peach bowl travel to Atlanta
Louisville 40.3 -- Bowl travel to Texas
VT 40.3 -- Travel to NY (seems a little high, but maybe lodging in NYC makes up for distance)
NC State 40.2 -- Bowl travel to Florida
UNC 40.1 -- Bowl travel to Charlotte (Seems high, might include the previous season's January Orange bowl)
Clemson 39.7 -- Bowl travel to Orlando
BC 39.4 -- Bowl travel to Annapolis (game was cancelled, but they had already traveled)
Wake 39.3 -- ACC CG (basically no travel to Charlotte), Jacksonville (Seems low, game was on 12/31, maybe the expense shows up in the following year?)
Miami 38.9 -- Withdrew from bowl
UVA 38.9 -- Bowl Cancelled
Duke 38.8
FSU 38.6
Syracuse 38.3
Georgia Tech 37.9
Edit, updated UNC
** Edited by jmanatVT at 5/26/2023, 9:41:48 AM
** Edited by jmanatVT at 5/26/2023, 12:55:04 PM
Conference Realignment Board
3 y ago
Conference Realignment Board
3 y ago
But SEC leadership is asking itself, how many of those fans will they lose
and how many will they gain. The former is nearly 0 and the latter is substantial.
There's 112k people willing to travel to the middle of nowhere to watch a middling team in the conference and a middling team from the mag7; I wonder how many would tune a tv or pick a stream.
** Edited by jmanatVT at 5/22/2023, 8:42:23 AM
Conference Realignment Board
3 y ago
Conference Realignment Board
3 y ago
Conference Realignment Board
3 y ago
I've linked a Variety article somewhere with a quote or two from Iger from
his https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/disneys-q2-fy23-earnings... which called it "inevitable" but a decision they would not take lightly.
I don't know if WSJ has more information than that.
Conference Realignment Board
3 y ago
Conference Realignment Board
3 y ago
Conference Realignment Board
3 y ago
The payout of the pinstripe bowl is not 4.4M because Syracuse was in it.
It's negotiated in advance in accordance with the conference tie-ins of who might be available. (Granted, Syracuse is uniquely valuable to Pinstripe, like VT is uniquely valuable to say the Military Bowl).
This one year of data is not the argument you think it is.
Conference Realignment Board
3 y ago
Had the 7th most TV viewers among B12, PAC-10, and ACC teams over the past
decade (Highest in the B12 is #9). I suspect that the regular season TV is an order of magnitude larger than bowl payouts. Even then, I'm not sure bowl payouts are a great argument for the school which until a couple of years ago had the longest active streak...
Are there any business schools in the B12?
** Edited by jmanatVT at 5/18/2023, 9:54:40 AM
** Edited by jmanatVT at 5/18/2023, 10:02:25 AM
Conference Realignment Board
3 y ago
Thing is, you knock VT out and I don't just start being interested in the
SEC. I don't think college football fans are that elastic. Maybe I underestimate the ratio between people who like college football and people who like their school.
Conference Realignment Board
3 y ago
Conference Realignment Board
3 y ago
Yeah, stalling until 2036 might work in our favor as long as our fans don't
give up. I don't think being in a 3-5 conference will do that.
That and some of what you said. Do teams bring their own fans, or do they generate interest from outsiders via quality?
Conference Realignment Board
3 y ago
âWe think thereâs an inevitability to that" - Bog Iger
âWe havenât really changed our position regarding basically migrating ESPNâs flagship service as a direct-to-consumer or streaming platform,â Disney CEO Bob Iger said on the conglomerateâs May 10 earnings call. âWe think thereâs an inevitability to that, but itâs a huge decision for us to make. And we know that weâve got to get it right, both in terms of pricing and timing.â
Conference Realignment Board
3 y ago
Paid TV (that is Sat, Cable, and OTT like YoutubeTV) at lowest numbers
since 1992. Cord cutters are not swapping cable for OTT, they are swapping for individual on-demand services.
It used to be the person who only wanted Bravo was paying for ESPN and whatever RSNs and Conference Networks were in demand enough where they lived to be on basic cable. Now they are happy with just Peacock on-demand. So a fan doesn't bring their neighbors along anymore. Further, I doubt YouTubeTV, operated by the largest consumer data company in the world, negotiated statewide or larger rates with ESPN like the cable companies did.
There's a reason Bob Iger has said "thereâs an inevitability to" ESPN being direct to consumer.
You actually need people to want your product now.
Conference Realignment Board
3 y ago
Conference Realignment Board
3 y ago
Here's a recent article showing this is the case; Pay TV lowest since '92
In this Pay TV includes OTT like Youtube TV, Hulu Live, etc., cable, and satellite; but not on-demand services.
===================
Pay TV is suffering from what Moffett calls âthe impoverishment cycle,â in which higher sports-broadcast fees have driven retail prices higher â thereby fueling cord-cutting and forcing distributors to increase prices to compensate. Even ESPN, one-time stalwart of the traditional ecosystem, has conceded that there will be a day when a la carte streaming is a viable option, Moffett noted.
âWe havenât really changed our position regarding basically migrating ESPNâs flagship service as a direct-to-consumer or streaming platform,â Disney CEO Bob Iger said on the conglomerateâs May 10 earnings call. âWe think thereâs an inevitability to that, but itâs a huge decision for us to make. And we know that weâve got to get it right, both in terms of pricing and timing.â
Conference Realignment Board
3 y ago
I would venture a lot of cable subscriptions are not replaced with a
subscription including Live TV/sports, but instead the On Demand offerings of HBO, Hulu, Disney+, Netflix, Amazon Prime, Paramount+, etc. None of those are paying for ACCN or SECN.
I suppose the ACCN might receive more from a YoutubeTV subscription in a state with a school versus not; but I'd guess Google is paying the ACCN more wisely than Cable Companies which have less ability to track actual views, geography, etc. Those changes in distribution are certainly changing some aspects of the financial model as well.
Conference Realignment Board
3 y ago
IIRC you worked (adjacent?) to the TV industry? Do you think with falling
cable subscription numbers, we'll hear more about ratings/fans/etc. versus "they bring the X market".
It seems the old model was that the X (for example) BC fans gave a lot of leverage to get $Z month from all Y basic cable subscribers, making BC worth Y*Z. But if Y plummets, then the value of a school has to be closer to X*Z (where Z probably changes depending on how you might rebundle/unbundle the programming), where the only people bothering to keep cable are those interested in live sports.
Does that track? Have I asked the wrong guy?
Conference Realignment Board
3 y ago
Women's Basketball Board
3 y ago
Women's Basketball Board
3 y ago
Think we took possession earlier than that, but it was very, very close
To the point of being bizarre
** Edited by jmanatVT at 3/31/2023, 8:35:59 PM
Football Board
3 y ago
The Lounge
3 y ago
Finally professional football representing the capital region. Used to have
to go to Baltimore for that.
The Lounge
3 y ago
I think the economics just aren't there. Sure, VB/Nor/NN at 37th
has peers with pro sports teams, but none of them have a giant portion of the economy which won't buy advertising or a suite, let a lone a season ticket.
33 KC
34 Nashville
35 Columbus
36 LV
37 Milwaukee
38 VB/Nor/NN
39 Hartford
40 Salt Lake City
44 Raleigh
45 Jacksonville
47 New Orleans
48 Memphis
Compare
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Kansas_City
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nashville,_Tennessee#Economy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Connecticut (for Hartford)
to
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Norfolk,_Virginia
and
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_Beach,_Virginia#Economy
(Only the first 3 links are shown. Post contained 5 links.)
The Lounge
3 y ago
Fair enough. This is the internet after all so you have to assume the other
person is disputing you :-).
The Lounge
3 y ago
That's true, but there's plenty of $s to worry about losing to nuclear, etc
In 2000, something like 10% of US energy consumption was in the form of natural gas or petroleum used for residential/commercial heating/cooking/etc. In 2000, the US spent about $750B on energy. 10% of that market is $75 B. $75 B in revenue (it appears to be closer to $100B with 2020's figures) for which there is no technological moat, just circumstances, on oil/gas members' balance sheets.
That's just one area.
Besides, why do you think they have a 60 year history of giving money to these causes? Goodness of their hearts?
** Edited by jmanatVT at 10/28/2022, 3:59:28 PM