El Paso Hokie

Once the top three or four brands leave, media revenue will get adjusted, recruiting for the leftover programs will get tougher and the death spiral will commence. The ACC is headed for Group of 6 status and no one from the Big12 is going to be interested in coming over (unless something unexpectedly catastrophic happens to the Big12 first).

Would a GOR that calls for assignment of media rights in connection with an ESPN media deal -- and mentions ONLY an ESPN media deal -- be enforceable with respect to a media deal with a different media provider? Unless all the ACC member institutions agree to amend the GOR for that purpose (which they obviously would not) the answer, in my opinion, is NO.

I suspect that the language that extends the GOR to cover the extended ESPN agreement (if exercised) is the clause I've underlined in blue below ("and which may be exercised as permitted by the ESPN Agreement"). If that was the intent, it probably could have been made more clear and the words "during the Term" earlier in that same sentence muddy the waters a bit. If someone knows of something else that accomplishes the GOR extension besides this, please let us know.

As I understand it, if the ESPN agreement is terminated, it doesn't necessarily mean that the GOR is also terminated, but as a practical matter the GOR would be rendered completely ineffective because the ESPN media rights would no longer exist and there would therefore be no monetary penalties associated with the departure of an ACC member school. By the way, the GOR states that the Term ends on June 30, 2027. I have been assuming, like everyone else, that extending the ESPN agreement also triggers an extension of the GOR, but I haven't seen any language that actually makes that explicit. Can anyone point us to that language and does it exist in a document signed by an authorized representative of each member school?

The GOR plainly states that its purpose is to grant rights to the conference so that the conference can fulfill its obligations under the ESPN agreement. I haven't seen anything that suggests that it applies to anything other than the ESPN agreement. If the ESPN agreement ends, the GOR would appear to be of little or no continuing significance.

The uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the FSU/Clemson litigation might have a significant impact on ESPN's willingness to renew under the existing terms. They might want to add some language to address that contingency.

Caveat: I don't have a signed copy of the GOR, so I'm operating under the assumption that this is the actual language. Perhaps someone else can confirm. ** Edited by El Paso Hokie at 8/18/2024, 3:13:22 PM

But I would be thrilled if it actually came to pass.

The Round Rock campus is a satellite.

If this interpretation were upheld, then the GOR would have no teeth and no purpose for being. It would be hard to argue that such was the "meeting of the minds" at the time the GOR was executed. ** Edited by El Paso Hokie at 8/7/2024, 11:29:56 PM

I'm not a lawyer, but unless there's something in either the GOR or ESPN agreement that defines the Term as including the extension period, it would be my opinion that the term ends in 2027 and would extend to 2036 only if and when ESPN exercises the extension. If I'm right, FSU and Clemson will soon be gone, and the rest of the dominoes will fall soon thereafter.

To not enforce them would be a precedent that would render them unenforceable for all.

Therefore, realignment gave them a big boost. That's how I interpret the meaning of the 5 rating.

As the saying goes, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Sorry to be that guy.

History suggests that UNC would use its influence to have VT left out.

I hope we see a major bounce in 2024.

This morning I'm finding that while using Microsoft Edge I can access subscriber articles but not subscriber message boards. Restarting my computer didn't clear the issue. Meanwhile, I have no access issues using Google Chrome. I don't know whether anyone else is having this issue, but I thought you might want to know.

** Edited by El Paso Hokie at 8/14/2023, 11:04:44 AM

FSU, Clemson and UNC might find spots, but the ACC leftovers might have to form a new G5-level conference. At that point, I think we'll be left looking wistfully up at the SEC, BIG and even the Big12.

The Big12 at that point would be a very strong conference.

Unless VT can somehow restore its football reputation, I don't see an invitation forthcoming for us. If Clemson and FSU left, the crippled remains of the ACC would no longer be relevant and a spot with the BIG12 might become the only good landing place. ** Edited by El Paso Hokie at 3/6/2023, 11:49:52 PM

That would be my guess, but I'm no expert.

I know because I've seen it at least a dozen times with my grandkids.

Or whatever other amount is reasonably possible.

If decision-makers decide that the long-term benefits post-GOR (>$100M/yr) are worth the relative short-term pain of losing what is currently around $35M/year, then they will borrow to cover the gap and should be able to easily repay when the bigger pay days come. I'm not saying this would be painless, but if defections happen then this is how I think it all gets done.

Suppose, for example, that the BIG or SEC agrees to take on ACC defectors on the condition that the defectors will not be entitled to share in any BIG or SEC media revenue for as long as the defectors are subject to a GOR. From the defectors' point of view, it should make no difference to them because they won't be seeing that revenue either way. From the acquiring conference point of view, that's a bonus as the expected incremental media revenue from the expanded conference that would otherwise go to the newcomers (or ACC under the GOR) will instead be retained and shared among the other acquiring conference members. Only after the GOR ended, in this example, would the defectors begin to share in the media revenue. Under this scenario, there would be no "bank" available to be paid to the ACC during the term of the GOR because the defectors would have no media revenue during that term, consistent with the condition of their admittance. Of course, that raises the issue of having to finance the revenue loss during that time period, which is a different subject.

If the Big12 picks up the best leftovers from both the PAC and the ACC and then creates regional divisions, I think that would be the next best thing to being part of the two power conferences. The next best option after that would most likely be the schools passed over by the Big12 and things will just get uglier with each passing iteration.

A report was issued last year and discussed on TSL boards that highlighted that VT's biggest issue with AAU status is that our faculty are not publishing enough quality research in the most highly-regarded places.