Why the ACC should (and probably would) target Utah (and ASU) in 2030
We’re in the offseason, and every now and then, I saw a rumor about Utah jumping to the B1G.
Not sure if the B1G is actually interested, but Utah should 100% be the ACC’s top target for these reasons:
1. Football: Utah and ASU are easily the best football brands among non-P2, non-ACC schools (and ND, of course). Yeah, Utah had a rough year last season, but when it comes to brand and potential, I think they’re top candidates.
2. Academics: The ACC’s expansion game is tricky because the academic threshold is higher than, say, the Big 12 or SEC. Utah and ASU are AAU schools, so the snobby ACC presidents won’t turn their noses up. (Sorry, WVU won’t make the cut.)
3. Western Exposure: I think any expansion would need ESPN’s buy-in. Grabbing Utah and ASU gives the ACC four teams in the MST/PST zones, meaning that the ACC can offer two late-night TV slots for ESPN, just like the B1G with its four West Coast schools.
4. Location/Market/Travel: I bet Stanford and Cal are looking for travel companions, and they’d vote yes for Utah and ASU. Plus, Salt Lake City and Phoenix are big cities with major airports, making travel easier for the East Coast teams.
Don’t you think this is a no-brainer?
** Edited by RandomAsianGuy at 7/1/2025, 7:01:39 PM
24 Replies
1y
Neither conference will survive competing with one another for whatever scraps are left.
(In response to this post by RandomAsianGuy)
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HouClone
1y
In order to keep cultures, rivalries, and a geographic fit, the ACC and Big 12 should stay separate. They could go in together on negotiating a shared tv media contract and scheduling agreement for football only. So why 2 conferences instead of 1? They won't be able to match the Big 10 and SEC in brands, but they will have strength in numbers and two votes on all matters since separate.
Though the Big 12 and they won't like it, but maybe trade Cal, Stanford, and SMU to the Big 12 and West Virginia, Cincy, and UCF to the ACC for geography reasons.
(In response to this post by BROman Hokie)
Easier said than done, particularly in the Big XII.
In the ACC it might be easier to pick the top 8 or so most valuable programs, but in the Big XII it would be quite difficult. There is a ton of parity there.
And how big would a merger even be in terms of amount of schools?
(In response to this post by BROman Hokie)
1y
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
The ACC is like a dead man walking
Once the top three or four brands leave, media revenue will get adjusted, recruiting for the leftover programs will get tougher and the death spiral will commence. The ACC is headed for Group of 6 status and no one from the Big12 is going to be interested in coming over (unless something unexpectedly catastrophic happens to the Big12 first).
(In response to this post by RandomAsianGuy)
1y
I heard that exact phrase once UMCP left the league.
The ACC media contract runs through 2036 and will most likely make money than any other non P2 conferences.
(In response to this post by El Paso Hokie)
1y
members opt to recommit to a new GOR and media contract vs. seek membership in another conference? One reason people are saying the ACC is a dead conference walking is that they believe enough of the "important members" will decide to not remain in the conference after 2036.
(In response to this post by RandomAsianGuy)
1y
Let’s think through this logically.
The ACC’s new GOR commitment is probably going to start sometime in 2035. However, each ACC school will need to evaluate whether a better opportunity (meaning more money) exists in another conference. In 2030, any ACC school receiving an offer from another conference will face a choice: stay in the ACC or pay a $75 million exit fee to leave. Obviously it would make sense for any ACC schools receiving offers from P2 to leave.
Same applies to Big 12 schools. The B12’s GOR commitment will probably start sometime in 2029. These schools will also need to decide whether to stay in the B12 or leave for a higher-paying conference if there is an opportunity (I bet some B12 schools have the P2 ambition and won’t sign the GoR until the last minute). For 2023–2024, the ACC has distributed $10M+ more per school “on average” and its media contract runs through 2036.
The ACC will also be in a position to help exit fees for incoming schools, as it would presumably receive $75 million for each school that departs.
Every one will make a rational choice for itself whether it’s P2, ESPN, the ACC, and the B12 schools.
(In response to this post by VTHokie2000)
1y
though? I thought the exit fee only applies if the school departments before the GOR expires on June 30, 2036. If a school has not already departed by the final year or two of the GOR, then logically a school will just wait to leave and join the new conference on July 1, 2036 to align with the new fiscal year.
(In response to this post by RandomAsianGuy)
1y
(In response to this post by VTHokie2000)
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RJHokie
1y
(In response to this post by RandomAsianGuy)
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HouClone
1y
ESPN is going invoke a contract negotiation clause once a few brands leave. The media revenue is going to tank for the remainder and for the 2036 new contract.
Utah would like to get away from BYU, as of now, but if they bolt, they better be sure they are going to a better situation as the Big 12 would never invite Utah back.
Cal and Stanford aren't looking for travel partners. They're looking for a lifeline in the hope they get a Big 10 invite or the whole college landscape changes. They're probably losing money or breaking even with their current revenue. Adding 2 or 3 somewhat local schools is barely going to put a dent in their travel budget being 10 miles from the Pacific ocean playing all their sports in the Atlantic coast.
** Edited by HouClone at 7/1/2025, 9:06:48 PM
(In response to this post by RandomAsianGuy)
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Stech
1y
(In response to this post by RandomAsianGuy)
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I85Hokie
1y
At least it was last time I checked. And I think that doesn’t even include online enrollment.
(In response to this post by Stech)
1y
Zona is slightly better than ASU academically. But academics is a threshold issue in my opinion.
ASU has better football and location.
(In response to this post by Stech)
1y
and who does the rankings. Also, does it really even matter?
(In response to this post by Stech)
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Stech
1y
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
the top of the uneven distribution system, or at the bottom?
I could see them giving up their holy war game for BC. The country would be riveted.
They would make so much more money in the ACC, it's a no brainer. I mean, it's not even close and all. It would be so worth the exit fee, I'm surprised they haven't jumped for the upcoming season.
Who wouldn't want to hob nob with the academic elites at Louisville?
Playing Cal again would do so much for their football brand, it isn't even funny.
Ya, those schools in the Mountains - west would be fine additions.
(In response to this post by RandomAsianGuy)
1y
It’s funny that Big 12 fans are always talking about poaching ACC schools, but you lose it over one thread about the opposite on the VT board.
Utah would make much money in the ACC with their brand and, hopefully, a strong football team.
Yeah, I’m betting Utah would jump at the chance to ditch the Big 12.
To be clear, Utah would obviously prefer the B1G.
but if it’s ACC vs. Big 12, I think the choice is clear for them.
Newsflash: Utah doesn’t even have to pay an exit fee to leave. Don’t you know that?
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)