All Hokie, All the Time. Period. Presented by First Bank & Trust Company

Maroon Effect Maroon Effect OP
Jul 10, 2022 at 07:54 PM ET
Our best move is probably to cling to the GoR and make bank off defectors.
Then go with Pitt and 2 of Louisville, GT, or NCSU to the B12.

21 Replies

H
hokieZ71
The money goes to the ACC. Gotta stay to collect.
3TechFanz 3TechFanz
True. But tv revenue gap will make haves (sec) and have nots of acc worse
$50M a year disparity for doing nothing but being a member of a conference with awesome tv deal means more staff more recruiting more buildings more $$ to throw at all they get now.
MrBayAreaHokie MrBayAreaHokie
I think it takes a long time to make the GOR $ thought, right?
1
133743Hokie
Payout every year.
MrBayAreaHokie MrBayAreaHokie
But Marron said
“…take the GOR money and bolt for the big12”…my point is that the for money from Clemson leaving for example, would come over many years…..so “bolting for the big12”, might not still be on the table by the time you get all the money, honey ….
El Paso Hokie El Paso Hokie
What if there is no "bank" to be had?
Suppose, for example, that the BIG or SEC agrees to take on ACC defectors on the condition that the defectors will not be entitled to share in any BIG or SEC media revenue for as long as the defectors are subject to a GOR. From the defectors' point of view, it should make no difference to them because they won't be seeing that revenue either way. From the acquiring conference point of view, that's a bonus as the expected incremental media revenue from the expanded conference that would otherwise go to the newcomers (or ACC under the GOR) will instead be retained and shared among the other acquiring conference members. Only after the GOR ended, in this example, would the defectors begin to share in the media revenue. Under this scenario, there would be no "bank" available to be paid to the ACC during the term of the GOR because the defectors would have no media revenue during that term, consistent with the condition of their admittance. Of course, that raises the issue of having to finance the revenue loss during that time period, which is a different subject.
H
hokieZ71
They aren’t paying the ACC $35 million a year.
They are paying every cent they earn in their new conference. To the ACC. They stay in the ACC and they earn equal To their peers. They move to the SEC and they earn $100M less than their peers. For over a decade. And if you think the assumption that the newer contracts in 2036 will be more than They are now, much less equal, given the state of TV subscriptions, pulling the plug, less live TV, ratings declines in college football, well, that’s kinda silly to dig yourselves a half billion dollars in debt…
1
133743Hokie
The "defectors" athletic departments would be bankrupted. How can they
survive, much less compete, without that revenue. They can't.
El Paso Hokie El Paso Hokie
As I explained two days ago (Link)
If decision-makers decide that the long-term benefits post-GOR (>$100M/yr) are worth the relative short-term pain of losing what is currently around $35M/year, then they will borrow to cover the gap and should be able to easily repay when the bigger pay days come. I'm not saying this would be painless, but if defections happen then this is how I think it all gets done.
1
133743Hokie
Gonna borrow $100M per year for 13 years? How do you pay that back?
You still need the money to compete in the new conference so you have to have the revenue. And now you need additional revenue to service the debt. Its a non starter
El Paso Hokie El Paso Hokie
Borrow $35M/year to cover what they currently live with
Or whatever other amount is reasonably possible.
1
133743Hokie
How do they compete in the new conference? Doormat status for 23 years
You have to pay the debt every year and it grows every year, so you have even less to spend on your programs. Then when you start getting the money you are even further behind relegated to perpetual catch-up. So why would you even think of doing this?
Stork Stork
On the backs of students!
MrBayAreaHokie MrBayAreaHokie
Probably could finance that with high interest bonds
1
133743Hokie
Where would the money come from to pay off the bonds?
MrBayAreaHokie MrBayAreaHokie
eventually the GORred conf gets their cash flow back
if you leave the ACC for the SEC you might owe the ACC all your tv money till 2036 right? that’s not forever
1
133743Hokie
So you aren't going to pay on the bonds for 13 years? Then at that point
you will owe $500M+ in P&I. How are you going to pay that plus fund programs? And you've just gone 12 years with limited income so you're programs are mired in the basement. You'll never catch up.
E
EDGEMAN
So will those schools receive zero media payments for over a decade?
If a school leaves the ACC, is the ACC required to pay them a media distribution?
1
133743Hokie
No
D
daveinop
interesting what ifs
In theory the new conference (let's say the SEC) can't broadcast the departed team's home games until the end of the GOR because they have no media rights to those games. That's why no one has broken a GOR thus far. So unless the ACC broadcasts the game or unless the SEC buys the game from the ACC, it wouldn't be on air. In the former case, I think the team gets paid at least something if not in full. In the latter, who knows?
1
133743Hokie
No