Our best move is probably to cling to the GoR and make bank off defectors.
Then go with Pitt and 2 of Louisville, GT, or NCSU to the B12.
21 Replies
H
hokieZ71
4y
(In response to this post by Maroon Effect)
4y
$50M a year disparity for doing nothing but being a member of a conference with awesome tv deal means more staff more recruiting more buildings more $$ to throw at all they get now.
(In response to this post by Maroon Effect)
I think it takes a long time to make the GOR $ thought, right?
(In response to this post by Maroon Effect)
But Marron said
“…take the GOR money and bolt for the big12”…my point is that the for money from Clemson leaving for example, would come over many years…..so “bolting for the big12”, might not still be on the table by the time you get all the money, honey ….
(In response to this post by 133743Hokie)
What if there is no "bank" to be had?
Suppose, for example, that the BIG or SEC agrees to take on ACC defectors on the condition that the defectors will not be entitled to share in any BIG or SEC media revenue for as long as the defectors are subject to a GOR. From the defectors' point of view, it should make no difference to them because they won't be seeing that revenue either way. From the acquiring conference point of view, that's a bonus as the expected incremental media revenue from the expanded conference that would otherwise go to the newcomers (or ACC under the GOR) will instead be retained and shared among the other acquiring conference members. Only after the GOR ended, in this example, would the defectors begin to share in the media revenue. Under this scenario, there would be no "bank" available to be paid to the ACC during the term of the GOR because the defectors would have no media revenue during that term, consistent with the condition of their admittance. Of course, that raises the issue of having to finance the revenue loss during that time period, which is a different subject.
(In response to this post by Maroon Effect)
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hokieZ71
4y
They are paying every cent they earn in their new conference. To the ACC.
They stay in the ACC and they earn equal
To their peers. They move to the SEC and they earn $100M less than their peers. For over a decade. And if you think the assumption that the newer contracts in 2036 will be more than They are now, much less equal, given the state of TV subscriptions, pulling the plug, less live TV, ratings declines in college football, well, that’s kinda silly to dig yourselves a half billion dollars in debt…
(In response to this post by El Paso Hokie)
4y
survive, much less compete, without that revenue. They can't.
(In response to this post by El Paso Hokie)
As I explained two days ago (Link)
If decision-makers decide that the long-term benefits post-GOR (>$100M/yr) are worth the relative short-term pain of losing what is currently around $35M/year, then they will borrow to cover the gap and should be able to easily repay when the bigger pay days come. I'm not saying this would be painless, but if defections happen then this is how I think it all gets done.
Link:
Financing the Gap
(In response to this post by 133743Hokie)
4y
You still need the money to compete in the new conference so you have to have the revenue. And now you need additional revenue to service the debt. Its a non starter
(In response to this post by El Paso Hokie)
Borrow $35M/year to cover what they currently live with
Or whatever other amount is reasonably possible.
(In response to this post by 133743Hokie)
4y
You have to pay the debt every year and it grows every year, so you have even less to spend on your programs. Then when you start getting the money you are even further behind relegated to perpetual catch-up. So why would you even think of doing this?
(In response to this post by El Paso Hokie)
Probably could finance that with high interest bonds
(In response to this post by El Paso Hokie)
4y
(In response to this post by MrBayAreaHokie)
eventually the GORred conf gets their cash flow back
if you leave the ACC for the SEC you might owe the ACC all your tv money till 2036 right? that’s not forever
(In response to this post by 133743Hokie)
4y
you will owe $500M+ in P&I. How are you going to pay that plus fund programs? And you've just gone 12 years with limited income so you're programs are mired in the basement. You'll never catch up.
(In response to this post by MrBayAreaHokie)
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EDGEMAN
4y
If a school leaves the ACC, is the ACC required to pay them a media distribution?
(In response to this post by El Paso Hokie)
D
daveinop
4y
In theory the new conference (let's say the SEC) can't broadcast the departed team's home games until the end of the GOR because they have no media rights to those games. That's why no one has broken a GOR thus far. So unless the ACC broadcasts the game or unless the SEC buys the game from the ACC, it wouldn't be on air. In the former case, I think the team gets paid at least something if not in full. In the latter, who knows?
(In response to this post by EDGEMAN)