Next Year's Offense May Take a Hit
We are a program right now that will compete to be in the top 3-4 of the ACC, make regionals, and potentially go to Sundays in any given regional
But next season's offense is likely going to take a step back. We are transitioning to the new era. Nex year will be the next stage after the full transition from the previous Bennett-***an-Bailey- Ritter-Peck-Lemley-McMillian era. The team now belongs to the next wave of hitters and pitchers.
Pitching Staff:
Mazzarone
Kleiman
Grizzard
2 r-freshmen in Reagan Troy and Bree Carrico
2 true freshmen in Addyson Fisher and Avery Layton
Mazzarone has to take that next step to being the Ace, to throw strikes consistently, and work to be elite. I am not sure if anyone else can be seen as the real no. 2 yet, even if Kleiman is considered to have done well this year.
Offense
The potency of the offense is going to revolve around the core of Chatfield, Lynch, Castine, Aldridge, Yeager...and whoever wins the jobs in the OF. Right now, barring some major growth in the off-season, the power numbers of the offense are likely to decline. This year we had 4 players reach double digit HRs and it took the post-season for Lynch to do it. Next year, we might only have two (Chatfield and Lynch) depending on who wins the OF jobs.
1B: Chatfield - Maybe she can get close to 19-20 hrs again
2B: Castine - probably settle into a .280 average (hopefully) with 5-10 hrs
SS: Rohs - a career . 220 hitter at best
3B: Lynch - . 300+ hitter who can get to 10 HRs
C: Aldridge or Yeager - .300+ hitters? Who can get 5-8 HRs each. Still room to get better
OF:
OF:
OF:
DP:
The other players with a shot to move into roles as contributors barring any portal additions.
Abromavage - OF?
Charlotte Moore - OF? Path to 1B blocked
Lyla Blackwell - OF.
Legette - Path to 1B blocked. Transition to OF?
Jordan Bishop - OF - true freshman
Mazzarone in DP role at times but...
We have a lot of players coming in or sitting on the bench who are INFs first but their paths to starting are blocked.
Jayden Jones - Path blocked to starting at 2B
Mattie Abernathy - Path to an INF role blocked
Gabby Mizelle - INF/Utility - true freshman
Lilly Palante - INF/Utility - true freshman
Abbie Sars - Catcher/Utility - true freshman
Mia Gagliardi - Catcher/Utility - true freshman
Will any true freshman be too good to keep off the field? Right now, the main opportunities are in the OF or pushing for time as a DP
38 Replies
1y
Mizelle, Jones, Abromavage all look to be ++ hitters
(In response to this post by VAHokie89)
I thought the same about Legette and Chatfield, but I think we lost a lot
with Michelle out. Not just hitting. I’m afraid to take her off of 1st, she’s just that good at it.
(In response to this post by hokiepro)
1y
Because she was rusty
But Chatfield is definitely above average there
(In response to this post by vatechcowpatty)
I think between Rohs, Blackwell, and Castine, one of them has to learn to
hit.
We’ve seen it with Aldridge. She went from a weak hitter to our DP.
Most likely is Castine, because she hit well before. On the other hand, 5th year seniors don’t change much.
One learns to hit, the other two need replaced. Pete isn’t afraid to pull a great fielder when she can’t hit. He did it with Blackwell this year.
(In response to this post by VAHokie89)
1y
The beginning of the season is when numbers are often inflated until they normalize over a small sample size. There should have been no expectations that she would hit .500 with grand slams left and right :). That is the impression we were left with when she was hurt. There was an expectation that she would be dangerous this year....not grand slams...but probably a dangerous bat. If there is anyone who can rebound and likely get to .280 to .300, it would be here.
Rohs is a .220 career hitter after two years worth of ABs. Odds of her becoming a .280 to .300 hitter next year? Low. By her senior year when she is stronger? Maybe. But even then she would likely be no better than a .250 to .280 career hitter only if she really improved.
Blackwell. Does she have the size/strength to elevate her average? Green was bigger than she is
Blackwell was not pulled beause she could not hit. She lost the starting job because Trinity Martin started to hit. There was a stretch were Martin was hitting .240... The last 9 regular season/ACC tournament games, Martin hit .333
(In response to this post by vatechcowpatty)
Well, pulled because Martin hit better. There was a stretch when I couldnt
understand why Pete kept putting Martin in as a PH. Just seemed like a guaranteed SO.
If Blackwell can improve some she’s a lock to start in the outfield. She has very limited at bats in her career, about half a season. She’s primed for an offseason of improvement.
Look at Aldridge an even Yaeger to an extent as ones who improved tremendously. Aldridge was a very poor hitter and made great strides as a jr.
** Edited by vatechcowpatty at 5/18/2025, 10:13:19 PM
(In response to this post by VAHokie89)
1y
She’s not going to be a power hitter but she could be a disruptive leadoff or 9 hitter if she could continue to improve. She seems to have good bat control
(In response to this post by vatechcowpatty)
1y
possibly the Portal, along with Fall Ball. may define the pitching situation a lot more clearly. Hitting is going to be scoring with small ball. again, W/O a portal big ball hitter, and that's probably unlikely. Who plays infield? It's going to be really difficult ro keep J.Jones and Gabby Mizelle in the dugout. Again Fall Ball may well determine who plays in what positions.
My wish list for the off-season? Players deciding to Portal decide early. I would really love to see a seasoned Starting Pitcher come in but that may not be at the top of Pete's wish list. Just guessing. ( Lindsey? Come home? Yea, I know Dumb thought!!)
A long ball hitter would be a terrific addition as well, but probably even tougher to obtain than a starting pitcher.
I hope your analysis is off, but there obviously is the chance it could be spot on.
(In response to this post by VAHokie89)
1y
(In response to this post by VAHokie89)
R
RJHokie
1y
She redshirted last year after the injury.
(In response to this post by ColWilliamFleming)
1y
She seemed to hit the ball pretty decent early in the year so I think she can get to respectable on offense.
(In response to this post by Hokiedanville)
1y
are inflated due to the small number of ABs. Within the first however many games, she stopped hitting. She had 2 hits in the last 13 games. She would have to hit .280 the rest of her career just to be a .250 hitter. Her defense can largely be replicated, meaning that any replacement isn't so BAD that it would make us suffer at SS defensively. I say this as a friend of the family.
(In response to this post by Hokie_Forester)
1y
Than replacing a .230 hitter for one spot in the order
Now if we have a couple pitchers hit for themselves & DP fir her while she plays SS then that may be an option
(In response to this post by VAHokie89)
R
RJHokie
1y
She’s got good speed and needs to upgrade her hitting game.
(In response to this post by Hokie_Forester)
1y
She would have to hit over .300 the next two years just to be a .280 career hitter. Right now, her strength and bat speed are not going to allow her to do much with the bat on a consistent basis.
(In response to this post by RJHokie)
R
RJHokie
1y
going forward. Some players get a lot better between their second and third year, see Addy Green as an example. We should know more possibly in the fall but more likely during the first month of the next season.
(In response to this post by VAHokie89)
R
RJHokie
1y
Rohs needs to significantly improve on her hitting. She did better this year than last year.
(In response to this post by Hokiedanville)
1y
I understand we see Rohs as making plays that Pete has never seen before. I do believe that becomes hyperbole. NOT taking anything away from Rohs, but we likely have players there where the defense is not going to be a dropoff to the point it hurts the defense. I am not saying replace her... but if there is a good defender who can hit... the defense won't suffer.
As long as we and analysts stop saying "there is no hole in the lineup. It is dangerous from top to bottom."
(In response to this post by RJHokie)
1y
there is no chance that she is not the starting SS, unless she is injured. Of course, that's my opinion. She should continue to improve her hitting, and you can see she started to incorporate some "small ball" into her at-bats. If she can improve that aspect of her game, it would be really help her game
(In response to this post by VAHokie89)
1y
Too often in big games this season the pitching staff held their own and just didn't get the run support they needed.
Of course I'm not telling anyone in here anything that they didn't also know.
(In response to this post by RJHokie)
R
RJHokie
1y
But she’s much better than Castine at SS.
(In response to this post by ancient alien 2018)
R
RJHokie
1y
Addy Green is an example where the light came on in her third year and resulted in a very significant improvement.
(In response to this post by ancient alien 2018)
1y
She would have to hit .280 the next two seasons JUST TO BE A .250 hitter. To actually be a hitter that matters ...like .280 or higher she would have to hit .300 or better the next two seasons. That isn't going to happen. I am not just making up numbers. I have done the math
(In response to this post by RJHokie)
It's faulty logic to talk about what next year will be, then use a possible
career BA to discuss who can contribute.
Career BA only matters after they're done. NEXT year's OPS (not BA), will determine how good NEXT year's team is.
If Rohs hits 0.280 and has a 0.750 OPS, then she's a 0.280BA/0.750OPS hitter. Her career stats make no difference whatsoever.
** Edited by King of Hokies at 5/18/2025, 10:35:19 PM
(In response to this post by VAHokie89)
1y
.280 for the next two years to be a career .250 hitter. The numbers say that based on a projection of around 114+ ABs per the net seasons similar to this year. The actual numbers say that. She would have to hit over .300 the next two years to get her average even higher. It isn't faulty logic from a per quantitative analysis point of view to say that. It is assumption that I don't think that will happen and I believe that she will remain basically who she is as a hitter baring getting mature/strength wise in her senior year. Anything is possible.
Of course next year's BA/OPs will determine. IMO, i don't think Rohs will be much higher than she finished this season. If it is .250, then great. She might not go 11 games with 1 hit like she did prior to today.
(In response to this post by King of Hokies)
No. If she hits 0.280 next year, then she's a 0.280 hitter for next year.
Which is what the entire discussion is about.
If we were talking economics I'd be telling you that was a sunk cost fallacy. Instead it's just a red herring fallacy. Her prior stats have absolutely no bearing on her value for next year.
It's pretty simple.
** Edited by King of Hokies at 5/19/2025, 12:22:09 AM
(In response to this post by VAHokie89)
1y
is going to be the catcher.
(In response to this post by VAHokie89)
This is my main worry about who we’d unexpectedly lose. Why stay when
you’ve improved your weakness (hitting) tremendously, are an awesome catcher, and you were benched anyway.
I think Zoe is a great catcher, I just think Aldridge was better. As good as she was last year and as good as she’s hit this year, I can’t believe she’d ever be benched.
If I’m an SEC team without a proven catcher I throw NIL money at her.
** Edited by vatechcowpatty at 5/18/2025, 9:49:20 PM
(In response to this post by Hokie_Forester)
1y
1A, 1B in no order, but I think Aldridge is the spirit of the team....
Abromavage is gonna knock the cover off the ball next year...
(In response to this post by Hokie_Forester)
R
RJHokie
1y
and worked out by the coaching staff.
Jayden Jones should be fully healthy and ready to go next season, and could possibly supplant Castine at some point. But I believe they will try to transition her to outfield, at least on a part-time basis. She’s a really good athlete.
(In response to this post by Hokie_Forester)
N
nkhooch
1y
Rohs will be challenged as well. Nearly an automatic out in ACC play. With what we are losing hitting wise, we'll have to get some production from SS.
(In response to this post by RJHokie)
1y
every team has players portaling out for playing time in the off-season. Fall Ball may be really important!!
(In response to this post by RJHokie)
1y
(In response to this post by RJHokie)
1y
throwing money to raise the team to elite status.... As much as we like our players and think they are "great", they are very good. You keep them until the mindset is to become elite?
** Edited by VAHokie89 at 5/18/2025, 9:59:10 PM
(In response to this post by Hokie_Forester)
1y
our good players.
(In response to this post by VAHokie89)