Riddle me this Sideliners, the ACC is going to *Reconstruct, but b a Power
Conference too? The 4 Commissioners just met with the NCAA President. That's what has come out in the last ~week. Tell me how you think those two things both could be true?
I will take a stab at it. The SEC and B1G are clearly the Power Football Conference, and if we are honest, they always have been, bar a few exceptional years. However, the NBA doesn't lack for money, it is just that the NCAA basketball tournament money mainly goes to the other non Power Schools and non revenue sports for all D1, not to mention the Sweet 16 participants is not distributed like the football playoff money where it mainly goes to the participants. However, there is money to be made with expansion in the NCAA basketball and still pay for schools nonrevenue sports. The expansion pays the earlier rounds the way it has always been paid to nonrevenue sports, but the Sweet 16 is paid like the football playoff money...mainly to the participants.
So how does this keep the ACC at the Power level and reconstruct/reconfigure? First of all, I will say it, IMHO reconstruct/reconfigure is not 2-4 schools.. It's the Mag 7 plus 1 (Plus 1 either being Louisville to the B12 or ND one day to B10). Who knows, maybe one day both, but I lean towards Louisville now. I have no timetable on this because we all know now the ACC invasion of the Big East was in stages. So was the recent B10 expansion. USC, UCLA, and then Oregon and Washington. Maybe they do it that way so that they can get the votes later. So here is what I see, I see the ACC eventually losing the Mag 7 to the P2 and the plus 1 right now is Louisville to the B12. They have never felt at home in the ACC and wanted the B12 spot that WVU got mainly because of Oliver Luck. The ACC agree with it or not, likes to think of themselves as an Academic Conference of Champions. They IMHO will pick up UConn, USF, Tulane, Rice, maybe San Diego State and maybe Oregon State. They will use their NIL mainly on basketball, and they will IMHO be able to get that Sweet 16 money.
The B12 on the other hand has a chance to be a very good basketball conference without the Academic Elite stuff stopping them from getting certain athletes. In other words, they will be able to get in athletes that the ACC will not let in to their schools. They both will play a role, but the Academic part will be pretty much opposite of each other. They want to be SEC like but for basketball, and the ACC will want be more like the B10, but again the emphasis will be basketball more so than football.
PS I am sorry if I offended some people with the Academic elite stuff, but I just don't see schools like Dule, Stanford, Cal, GT etc changing the way they look at athletics as being second to Academics, but now it is your chance, how can both things be true, according to you? Or can they?
** Edited by Stech at 6/25/2024, 3:44:47 PM
37 Replies
I
INSIDE99
2y
The landscape is always going to change, especially over the next two years.
More...
Texas A&M is extremely unhappy and wants out of the SEC. Almost as bad as FSU felt about their snub. The Aggies got out of the Big XII because of their rival Texas. Now they are entertaining what it might take to get out of the SEC. The Longhorns stealing their baseball coach was just another dagger. Plain and simple however, A&M does NOT want to be in the same conference as Texas, nor do they wish to play them in all sports. We'll see like everything else.
This is a dynamic realignment changer right now because see my first sentence.
There are some things I would like to post here using info I get and more speculation, but they are going to fall under the "coming soon" ESPN category, which seemingly makes some people upset...despite their inner fire to subconsciously login and read these type of things.
(In response to this post by Stech)
I would love to hear more about this. Talk about burying the lede.
(In response to this post by INSIDE99)
I
INSIDE99
2y
SPECULATION :)
Bury the lede - man, I have not heard that one since my journalism teacher mentioned it long ago.
Allow me to rephrase and expand from the last post.
ESPN will end up sublicensing more future CFP games, including some semifinal games, in exchange for a handful of financing.
On the flip side, ESPN will be able to carry some B1G games, in particular on the new Venu Sports package that's about to debut.
Venu is a sports streaming service joint venture between Disney/ESPN, FOX and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD). It is scheduled to launch this fall. The capabilities include high level DVR programming for such things as pause, rewind, save, etc. for sports carried by all three partners, including TNT. This product has been called a sports television game changer for everyone including the NFL. The CBS and NBC folks are cautiously watching.
FOX did not bid on the CFP (why the price came in much lower than expected) in exchange for FSU and potentially other ACC members where ESPN becomes the finance recipient to broadcast those games in the B1G.
WBD will also broadcast some of the CFP games in 2026 that will be produced by ESPN and their on-air talent. This provides different demographic numbers for ESPN.
Again, with ESPN paying for FSU and possibly other ACC members to exit for the B1G, ESPN gets to broadcast B1G games. I have mentioned in the past that for FSU to enter the B1G, don't be alarmed if ESPN is permitted to broadcast some of those games.
The realignment world is waiting on FSU to announce. I have stated before that all this comes out before August 15, but I suspect it could be any day now as I have tried to relay what I know. I have no issues for people calling out and disagreeing on my speculation. This really makes me no different from the podcast entrepreneurs in their basement who claim to have source info. I find it all interesting.
The ACC/ESPN contract negotiation is for another topic.
** Edited by INSIDE99 at 6/27/2024, 2:15:59 PM
(In response to this post by CobbCountyHokie)
2
2hhoop3
2y
they HOPE to finalize the agreement details this summer and once that is done they will still have to clear legal and regulatory review hurdles and potential challenges from a number of fronts including Congress, the NFL and cable satellite providers to name just a few. The math likely cannot be done until the details known AND approved with final pricing established. Given the fact they just received a second letter from Congress citing insufficient data in their first reply timetables would still appear to be up in the air.
(In response to this post by INSIDE99)
2y
About an academic focused reconstructed ACC with 15-20 schools listed as ones that would be in that conference. Many in your list of additions were on it: Rice, Tulane, USF, UConn. 5 current ACC schools weren’t listed: FSU, Clemson, UNC (all 3 rumored to be the top expansion targets), Louisville (doesn’t fit the academic profile + rumored to be heavily leaning to go to the XII), and VT.
(In response to this post by Stech)
W
WarHog38
2y
I mean that in regards to what Pate said about the imminent reconstruction & reconfiguration of the ACC. I don't think Pate was reading from a prepared text. Reconstruction or reconfiguration would seem to imply a mass exodus of a least 4 schools leaving or declaring an intent to leave the ACC. I guess UNC just being added to FSU & Clemson with a lawsuit could suffice. Maybe just those three schools declaring their exit from the ACC might suffice as well.
I don't know if much can be read into that offshoot recent meeting of the P4 Commissioners along with the NCAA President. It was total business and the P4 was just separating themselves from the other 28 conferences. Not just getting to be better friends. Sankey was hinting at leaving the NCAA just several months ago at those Playoff financial negotiations. You know that did not make Sankey a personal best buddy with the NCAA President for evermore.
I think what is said here about the next expansion phase concerning the ACC coming in waves is probably correct. It ultimately all just comes down to how big the P2 want to get? The P2 going to 20 might just get 4 or 5 ACC schools in P2. The P2 going above 20 would get a lot of ACC schools in the P2. It may also take the next year or longer to all play out. Could take 2 or 3 years if Pate is not close to the mark. However I think ESPN is steering this. Probably in the next year or just a little longer.
** Edited by WarHog38 at 6/25/2024, 5:11:05 PM
(In response to this post by Stech)
2y
primarily follow the money, which translates to viewers.
(In response to this post by WarHog38)
2y
San Diego State or Oregon State. Those two seen way out of place.
(In response to this post by Stech)
2y
San Diego State, Tulane in New Orleans and Rice in Houston could become Big East like in basketball with their locations.
(In response to this post by Hokebury)
H
HOO86
2y
Tulane and Rice are at the low end of the American Conference. They are way behind current ACC members.
In the American, the highest revenue is SMU, and they are coming in a week. Second highest is Temple University, and they rank the same as SMU academically. They can definitely be like Big East with the right coach.
Third is South Florida.
San Diego state has decent athletic revenue.
Rice could become like Miami with football backing. And Houston is a Big place.
UConn is already there in basketball and has as much athletic revenue as NCState even independent in football.
** Edited by HOO86 at 6/25/2024, 9:08:37 PM
** Edited by HOO86 at 6/25/2024, 9:20:16 PM
(In response to this post by Stech)
2y
IMHO opinion could build basketball into something special if they invested in it.
(In response to this post by HOO86)
H
HOO86
2y
Texas tends to steal coaches from Tulane like they did with baseball. I've continued to like the Tulane addition because I like New Orleans. Both Tulane and Rice would get the academic part of the ACC excited, especially Rice.
I just would want their athletic department to have enough money to compete in the ACC.
(In response to this post by Stech)
D
daveinop
2y
they have money, facilities, potential market, recruiting base, etc. thus far, they simply haven't had the interest. SMU has the interest; or at least they think they do. we'll see
(In response to this post by Stech)
2y
I just enjoyed a lot of crack smoke, so hear me out...
FSU, Clemson, UNC, NCST, UVa, VT, Miami, GT, Louisville break away and form their own group. Maybe they move headquarters into the old ACC office space in Greensboro. In 2031, they invite WVU. A the same time, SEC schools SC, KY, Auburn grow tired of the Bama vs. UGa championship decade jump ship to the Metro. The CW, the power channel in sports, gives the Metro a new deal until 2051 if all sign a GOR. FSU is first to grab the pen.
(In response to this post by Stech)
T
Truthahn
2y
I love that group, but in 2031, I'd load it up with several more B12 teams. Maybe keep SMU, too, and add six B12 schools, especially Utah and OK State. That would make it very similar to P2 level.
However, I believe the best we can hope for is the ACC minus Wake, given how lawyered up everyone is now-a-days.
(In response to this post by Victor Tango)
2y
That’s what real conferences do.
(In response to this post by Truthahn)
2y
Three new teams officially join. That would only give them a few days. So I don't see that happening.
(In response to this post by Victor Tango)
2y
be at their level, not at the schools levels. They own the TV contract and the ability to change it if just a couple leave.
(In response to this post by wwhokie1)
2y
Venture into Bourbonstreet territory. Can you try again with about half as many words? Thanks
** Edited by VT ChemE 1986 at 6/25/2024, 1:50:45 PM
(In response to this post by Stech)
2y
In the last week, it has been reported that the ACC will reconfigure, probably meaning several schools will leave in the near future, yet they just met with the NCAA President and the SEC, B!G and B12 Commissioners. The two things seem at odds. Can they both be true?
My "theory" the Mag 7 are leaving for the P2. Louisville is probably leaving for the B12. The ACC survives by taking the aforementioned schools (UConn, USF, Rice, Tulane and maybe San Diego State and Oregon State). The ACC and Big 12 use most of their NIL Money for basketball to get teams in the Sweet 16. Why? Because they will expand the tournament to pay for non revenue sports with the early games, but tons of money will be paid out to the Sweet 16 participants, just like they do with the football playoff money.
The ACC will want Academic schools for expansion, more like the Big 10, but the Big 12 will not care as much about that and they will be more like the SEC. Just get me good sports schools, and then our academic standards will rise with out success on the playing field.
That's one theory where both could be true, now is there another one?
(In response to this post by VT ChemE 1986)
2y
The ACC should lean into their strengths. Good academics, good basketball, and willing to take small private schools as well as big public schools.
Privates that could fit:
Rice
Tulane
Public’s that could fit:
USF
UConn
San Diego St
And remaining ACC schools would be:
Syracuse
Wake
BC
GT
Duke
SMU
Stanford
Cal
** adding my own commentary **
Now imagine that the ACC also informed others that they are open for business in case any schools don’t want to play the P2 big spending games. Hypothetically they could also have…
ND still in ACC for all but football
Northwestern from BIG
Vanderbilt from SEC
** Edited by HokieAl at 6/25/2024, 2:30:47 PM
(In response to this post by VT ChemE 1986)
2y
San Diego St does not belong in the group. I would replace them with Gonzaga. Gonzaga is a Jesuit school, so maybe Creighton would like to join.
I do not understand why UVA would not want to be in that group.
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
2y
Also the state of Virginia appears to be all in on funding NIL. I don't think they would be doing that without planning on being a part of the top level of college sports.
(In response to this post by VT ChemE 1986)
2y
(In response to this post by Sunsetunderground)
2y
kind of football that Americans refer to as soccer. ;-) Spending $70 million on a non-revenue seems to be a better fit for UVA's M.O. anyways.
(In response to this post by wwhokie1)
2y
A massive shift in the school culture and attitude towards football and athletics would be required which is not likely to happen. Most of the wahoos are too busy looking down their noses at everyone to understand a rabid football culture that is needed to thrive longterm.
(In response to this post by Sunsetunderground)
2y
The Marvelous 7 so it appears they are serious enough that they don't want to be left behind.
(In response to this post by VPIGUY)
2
2hhoop3
2y
valid arguments can be made for moving fast to secure a desired spot and for taking a deep breath and step back to see how some uncertainties fold. I am not sure the answer is the same for every school and the reality is the decision makers need to do a very thorough job of analyzing potential benefits and risks and making the best decision that they can for their long term goals. I feel like I could argue either side of the coin(move fast or step back) and make a reasonable case for it as the wisest option. I hope VT has some clear and grounded thinkers analyzing every available alternative.
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
2y
Could we be looking at an ESPN brokered realignment? I have thought, for years, that this popular plan was crazy talk. But we are in crazy territory now.
If The SEC and ESPN really want to preserve their monopoly, they would need to buy the cooperation of the ACC remainders. ESPN is still bound by their media deal to all the ACC schools. They can’t just facilitate a realignment from The ACC to another ESPN conference without inviting legal blowback from BC, Pitt, etc. Next, they need to buy redundant content in Florida and S. Carolina, and possibly in N. Carolina and Virginia. $$$ adding up.
So, ESPN could just refuse to renew the media deal in 2025 and move their pieces in 2027 when they have no contractual obligation to any ACC schools. But FSU, Clemson, and UNC have no interest in marking time for the benefit of ESPN. The pressure from those three schools will force ESPN to pay a ransom to a bunch of ACC schools.
The SEC favors this plan, but will ESPN pay for it? There was a rumor, not so long ago, about adding a media partner to help ESPN accommodate the growth content. Will that cover the added cost?
To me, it still seems like a unwelcome burden for ESPN.
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
W
WarHog38
2y
team played a game in the SEC. I read a big thread on a UVA board that had UNC fans stating they knew UNC Insiders that said UNC would be playing an SEC schedule in football in 2026. When the FSU attorneys looked at the ACC TV Contract with ESPN and declared ESPN had an option to cancel the ACC TV Contract on June 30, 2027. It all became crystal clear to me.
I don't think FSU or any ACC school is playing in the SEC or B1G until 2026. ESPN would not have to make much compensation to the ACC left-overs with that being just one year. However if FSU just had to get out of the ACC by the 2025 football season. I could see that as something that might cause the type negotiations you suggest.
Who knows though if that Composition Clause actually exists? That clause being brought into a reality could bring a quick end to all this. I don't think ESPN would worry much about lawsuits with that bevy of Attorneys that Disney keeps on retainer.
(In response to this post by 33laszlo99)
2
2hhoop3
2y
I said for individual schools holds true for conferences and maybe even networks. The cost certainty they thought they had with the House settlement could potentially crumble and there are still other suits and questions out there. Depending on that, the golden goose known as the NCAA basketball tournament is teetering with House. A rush to secure a spot may not give a party the spot they thought they were getting. Flip side is play it too close to the vest and the train you wanted to be on may be leaving the station without you or with somebody else in your seat. Get a ticket on that train and you may find you could have had the very same ticket for a small portion of the price if you had just been a little more patient. Like I said, interesting times and like you said a lot of variables with many undefined or yet unknown.
(In response to this post by 33laszlo99)