Andy Staples is reporting that exit fee is $200m NOW.
After the settlement is done that is.
If true, how many will drop that amount to leave this week?
Who will have a quick invite?
Will there be a bidding war between the B1G and SEC for certain big brands, particularly UNC?
Will schools be willing to jump if they are forced to come in on a discount?
Lastly, for goodness sake. What do will happen with Virginia Tech.
My head is spinning. LOL.
69 Replies
1y
We will see soon.
I'm fine with changing the payoff formula. F$U and Clemson, if they continue to invest in their programs, may find that the acc is an easier path to the playoffs.
3 bids is doable
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
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2hhoop3
1y
too much at any of these "reports" or the talking head and poster trolls out there until you have confirmation a deal is not only agreed to but, signed as well with accompanying details and specifics disclosed. There are a lot of trial balloons being floated and propaganda spread once again. Fact is the 2030/2031 contract renewal cycle was always viewed as an inflection point along with the current 2025 and 2026 CFP negotiations cycle. The details will always be the key and a lot of these "reports" are just trying to test the water temperature. Might also be worth asking how the ESPN renewal got accomplished with little to no details of contract changes, if any.
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
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Stech
1y
for B1G and possibly 34 for SEC when their contracts are up for renewal. Some think that SEC will probably move it up to 31 so they aren’t behind the B1G in expansion. (There was one article a while back saying Sankey and Pettiti discussed what schools go where)
I also think some are missing that ESPN renewed the ACC media agreement until 2036,ESPN makes 50% of the already built ACC Network, and the SEC is basically in the South. They need to get viewership from all over the country, and the expanded ACC can do that. Especially if they expand in basketball schools, since basketball many think is going to expand the tournament to 80-90 some teams to continue to pay for Olympic Sports and the Sweet 16, Elite 8, Final 4 and Finals are likely going to be paid mainly to the participants. Just like the eventual Sweet 16 in football, some are saying now, we all know we are going to 16 for PO 🏈, why not just go in 26. The B1G and SEC would love to start the Playoffs with 8 home games and they easily could if it’s done on rankings and SOS is the biggest component.
Grab the 🍿, a lot of possibilities to be decided in the next few months.
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
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VTCALS72
1y
Still a lot each of the P2 have to come to an agreement on. And the UNC/NCSU tie is real as are UNC demands for UVA and maybe Duke. So a lot to work out.
I despise UNC athletically but like always, they are sitting in the catbird's seat.
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
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Hokie83
1y
Unc does not have the power you seem to think they do but they no doubt are in a better position than VT to go to P2 at this point, but not in a position to be demanding other schools come with them...
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
1y
They will almost certainly leave with UNC and NC State. We have no legally binding arrangement with UVA like State and Carolina have. Of the so called Mag 7, VT is by far the weakest program with some of the weakest leadership in D1. Georgia Tech is doing far more than VT to put themselves into a good position by 2029-2030.
We are really a group of 5 program (and not a very good one) floundering around in the weakest of the P4 conferences. Unfortunately for us and Hokie nation, VT is going to get exactly what it deserves. We will be stuck in an eviscerated ACC with no options. Our administration simply has no desire or aptitude to do more than they are doing now. The fact that Whit is still our AD shows that our major donors are willing to tolerate what has been going on for many years. This is the hard truth. The sooner we all accept the reality of VT’s situation the sooner we all will have peace about it.
(In response to this post by Hokie83)
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Stech
1y
Have you seen the TV ratings in the ACC for the last 5, 10, 15 and 20 years. Virginia Tech is at the top tier in all of them, even after repeated 6-6 seasons.
PS I agree Whit needs to go, but that argument is better made at the declining number of donors/donor amounts and declining season ticket holders. Let’s not act like our TV ratings aren’t strong, because they are really good for our record, much better over time than some you have mentioned.
(In response to this post by Poultrygeist)
1y
stores, you see UNC shirts, jerseys, and sweatshirts for sale. You also see ND, Ohio State, and other blue blood jerseys for sale. To me, that would be the definition of a brand. Non conference jerseys being sold along side local schools.
I have never seen a Boston College Jersey, hat, or anything else being sold out here in flyover.
(In response to this post by Stech)
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Stech
1y
for the school and Nike, but the much bigger money is in TV ratings, 80%+ in football TV ratings.
PS Kansas is a basketball first state because of your great success in basketball, so it’s not surprising UNC does well, but it’s not comparable to doing well in 🏈 TV ratings, that’s where the big money is located! That’s why the SEC and B1G are dominating the money, it’s not their shirts hats and sweatshirt sales, it’s people watching their football on TV,
** Edited by Stech at 3/4/2025, 1:04:28 PM
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
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VTCALS72
1y
than BC or Cuse out there.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
different though, and it's mostly due to people moving or retiring, but I see a lot of K-State and KU gear in Phoenix. I will in all likelihood not see much K-State gear in Virginia or the North East, like ever. Even if they go on a tear, and win some natty's.
That being said, a one loss top ten ranked K-state playing a one loss ranked VT in Lane, would no doubt be on network television. It's not out of the question.
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
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VTCALS72
1y
That when we get there, the top 10 will exclusively be from the P2. ACC/B12 teams will be about like G5 teams in the rankings now. TV is not going to promote VT vs KSU as well as 3rd quartile P2.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
VT are perfect examples. VT found themselves in a game in which had they won, they would have been national champions. K-State was ranked #2 going into one of the first B12 championships, and lost on a 4th and forever fake punt by A&M. Otherwise, they too would have been in a National championship game.
Both schools had a really good coach that brought the programs out of obscurity, into the national conversation. Both went from perineal losers, to formidable programs that compete for conference championships. Both expanded and sell out their stadiums with a rabid fan base. The epitome of college athletics in my opinion.
I don't think either program will fade into the ibis, as you seem to think, because they do not receive as much media money as Texas, or that they don't get on TV as much as Michigan. I think both programs will be as much fun to watch in the future, as they have been in the past. I also think they can remain as competitive now, as they have in the past.
** Edited by Big12 guy at 3/4/2025, 11:53:09 AM
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
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VTCALS72
1y
But I see an erosion of watchers as many non aligned fans turn to the big names. That is what big media is banking on.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
Is exactly where we have been and will continue to be. We are not drawing higher TV ratings than most of the aforementioned programs (including Louisville) that will be wanted by the P2. That is complete fantasy. UVA’s athletic program has far better funding than ours. It is almost criminal how much VT has underachieved its potential. It gives me no pleasure to say it but it’s the hard truth. I wish things were different but it is the reality.
(In response to this post by Stech)
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Stech
1y
Yep....Here is the List in order (and score) during the CFP era
ACC:
FSU 128
Clemson 112
Miami 99
Stanford 99
VT 95
Louisville 89
Cal 86
Carolina 86
UVA 84
Pitt 84
Syracuse 83
NC State 82
GT 81
BC 77
Duke 77
Wake 76
SMU 74
This probably explains a little of why the ACC added Stanford and Cal. This "index" is a combination of actual ratings and current brand rating (all for football, of course).
This scoring would have us 12th in the current BIG and 10th in the current SEC btw. That is even without playing those brands week in and week out. We crush Maryland. Maybe they will "trade" us for Maryland, and Maryland can enhance the ACC's lacrosse brands!!
(In response to this post by Poultrygeist)
1y
viewership payout structure you will have a hard time explaining it with your out of date numbers you’re showing.
(In response to this post by Stech)
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Stech
1y
(In response to this post by Poultrygeist)
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Hokie83
1y
as your tirade post indicates and UVa is not as strong as you seem to think, Va State Officials are very much involved as the BOV's are in NC trying to make sure their respective schools have a suitable landing spot, if everyone starts leaving at the end of the decade VT will also be out and our Admin actually is very active in trying to get VT in P2.
I agree Whit needs to go sooner than later and the other big question is Sands retiring soon...
(In response to this post by Poultrygeist)
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VTCALS72
1y
That every ACC school now knows the ESPN big picture and this deal is all about moving who big media want into the P2 and then placing the ACC and teams at the top of the mid level. I am sure that the VT leadership has presented the best resume for VT to the P2 they can and I think we have a pretty good resume vs a lot of teams. But the whole object for all this reorganization is for big media to get a bigger net by investing a smaller total into only about 40 or less teams. Put all that money in fewer places.
(In response to this post by Hokie83)
1y
massive giving increase from our donor base to attempt to become competitive. (Something we’ve never done.) And we only get started after Whit leaves within 2 years and hopefully Sands retires whenever. Leaving us at most 3 years to start to get serious about things. Sorry but if your optimism is based on that then you will almost certainly be disappointed. Open your eyes and understand how this program is being run. Then compare it to the things being done at our peer institutions.
(In response to this post by Hokie83)
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VTCALS72
1y
then where is VT so far behind them? None of Bama,USCe, Vandy, OSU or Purdue are our peers simply because they are Big/SEC and that is a different world than the one VT lives in.
(In response to this post by Poultrygeist)
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VTCALS72
1y
a couple of NCs. Don't go with UNC. FSU, Miami or ND either.
Starting from a standpoint of "we should be like Clemson" is unrealistic in the timeframes that exist today. Short of a T. Boones Pickens or Phil Knight or some of those oilmen that can and will drop hundreds of millions, our peers are more like GT, Pitt, NCSU, WVU etc.
(In response to this post by Poultrygeist)
1y
They have a lot of smaller givers that give consistently. We have numerous advantages over a school like Clemson. We greatly underperform based on those advantages. Our fan and donor base demographics are superior to those of Clemson. That is what weak and feckless leadership gets you. I have no idea why you want to argue against that point other than you enjoy playing the role of contrarian. Tech’s underachievement has been pointed out numerous times by Techsideline staff as well and national sports writers including Josh Pate on his show. He’s mentioned it several times. I hope you enjoy our G5 status. I for one will not.
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
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Hokie83
1y
to actually what is going on, IMO you will be the one sorely wrong but keep believing what you think is reality and I will go with what I hear and know. So in a nutshell lets agree to disagree and not muddle the board any further going back and forward
..Have a Great Day...
(In response to this post by Poultrygeist)
1y
what is being done not what we might be hearing from our “sources”. You should be angry at how the VT administration has mismanaged VT’s athletic program and squandered and greatly under achieved our potential. And we’ve put up with it for 15+ years.
I always like to compare Virginia Tech to Clemson. By every measure a peer institution. However, they are a smaller school, with a smaller living alumni population in a smaller and less affluent state whose graduates makes significantly less money on average than VT graduates. Yet their athletic budget and revenue is far more than ours and as a result they have been far more successful on the field and over many decades. The difference is they have a very competent administration that has a vision of excellence for its athletic programs and has cultivated excitement and giving with its donor base. As a result everyone involved has an expectation of winning and excellence. VT has every built in advantage I mentioned but has weak leadership and no vision. Yes we find ourselves exactly where we are. A mediocre G5 type athletic program in the worst of the P4 conferences. You have to ask yourself a question. Does Virginia Tech deserve better than it has coming to it? If we’re being honest with ourselves the answer is no.
** Edited by Poultrygeist at 3/4/2025, 9:18:14 AM
** Edited by Poultrygeist at 3/4/2025, 9:27:07 AM
(In response to this post by Hokie83)
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VTCALS72
1y
UNC and NCSU are. That is a huge difference. 2nd I wish they did not but UNC is the #2 addition (behind ND). And they are clearly wanted by both B10/SEC.
(In response to this post by Hokie83)
1y
In the rare world of bi partisan, this issue is 100 percent on ensuring the BOV at both schools who are appointed, that their No 1 priority is to ensure both UVA and VT are in the same power 2 conference. THis is not in law, but in the interview process. Governors can fire the president and /or Board of Visitors in a heartbeat. Also, the attorney general is behind the scenes to reiiterate that there cannot be any quid pro quo by any institution.
All levels of each instituion understand it. (however, if for some God reason Tim Sands, in conversation to UVA, that it would be ok for VT to stay behind and you all move on. Well, that's a change....
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
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VTCALS72
1y
(In response to this post by 1947Sunbowl)
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Hokie83
1y
them if they in fact get an invite, Va State Officials is what links VT and UVa and will try and ensure both either go together if movement actually happens or both land in different P2 conferences. Also as much as UNC is probably # 2 VT is no lower than # 4 ...imo
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
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VTCALS72
1y
team by the P2 right now?
(In response to this post by Hokie83)
1y
I hope you are right, but I'd have to put VT much lower than that at this point. ND, UNC, FSU, and Clemson seem much farther above VT, and there are legitimate arguments for Miami, UVA, and even GT to be ahead of VT. I can definitely see VT ahead of GT, and most of us like to think that VT is ahead of UVA, but whenever I hear national people talk about it, UVA's name cachet seems to put them in the conversation ahead of VT (even though we VT people know that UVA is a worthless football program and that VT has more eyeballs and a more national football name). However, I don't see any world where we're ahead of Miami, and IMO that puts VT at 6th in the ACC at best. I'd like to think otherwise, but I think that's the non-O&M glasses version.
(In response to this post by Hokie83)
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Hokie83
1y
We are definitely ahead of UVA as far as SEC goes and UM brings no value to SEC and neither does FSU because they have Florida covered already. IF we are successful getting AAU membership then B10 becomes much more a possibility imo
None of us on this Board as well as Talking Heads now how all this will shake out. No Guarantees that SEC or B10 want to add anyone other than ND or maybe Clemson. P2 has it pretty well as they stand now and not sure large expansion again help their overall bottom lines..
(In response to this post by hokiekev 2k4)
1y
(In response to this post by Hokie83)
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Hokie83
1y
(In response to this post by hokie77)
1y
People aligned with NC State control the Board of Governors of the UNC System so your thoughts on them not are not based in reality. VT will not get bailed out by UVA or Virginia politicians this time.
(In response to this post by Hokie83)
1y
Limited importance. What they would prefer and what their options are will probably be different. And they don't have the leverage to get what they want. It's up to the SEC or Big 10 and what they want. Maybe the SEC wants both, but I doubt that. Would they really want two schools from the state of North Carolina. That does not seem to be their method.
(In response to this post by Poultrygeist)
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Hokie83
1y
(In response to this post by Poultrygeist)
1y
We have best resume of past 20’years or so in football and it’s not even close
(In response to this post by Hokie83)
1y
(In response to this post by olemisshokie4life)
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hokieZ71
1y
They’re raising private equity to buy 3 recent national titles and add to their high end clout. Because the Big XII NEEDS FSU and Clemson. Neither the SEC nor B1G need them.
UNC to the SEC also makes sense.
The B1G sitting this round out also makes sense.
The rest…who knows, but I think those three are gonna happen first.
Anything the ACC is agreeing to is because enough teams who are staying are grabbing whatever cash they can get. Could honestly see VT being stuck in an ACC without FSU/Clemson/UNC/UVA. The P3 could take those four and all go to 18
We are headed to a P3 + ND model
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
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VTCALS72
1y
And I don't see how private equity can do anything but hurt in the intermediate to long term. Private equity is mostly about buying a whole and breaking it into parts to walk away with nothing left but the profit they make.
(In response to this post by hokieZ71)
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hokieZ71
1y
They’re the ones footing the bills and needing a return on investment. Think they get it in the B12.
FSU adds nothing to B10 and Clemson adds nothing to SEC.
** Edited by hokieZ71 at 3/3/2025, 7:45:24 PM
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
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VTCALS72
1y
Neither the ACC nor the B12 is every really going to be a national player so what is the upside of each regionally?
For B12 it really isn't much. Colorado is their current rain maker and Denver is one of the few major population centers they (B12) are #1 in. IMHO the other major pop center they are #1 in is Phoenix and to me they are as likely to return to the PAC than stay in the B12. Other than that B12 is #1 in smaller markets or #3 or lower in major markets (Texas and Florida)
(In response to this post by hokieZ71)
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hokieZ71
1y
WF, BC, Cuse, Pitt, Duke, Stanford, Cal..….they don’t exist in the Big XII. So FSU and Clemson do no good here.
Take FSU, Clemson and Miami and add them to WVU, Oklahoma State, Colorado, Utah, BYU, Arizona State, Iowa State, Baylor, Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas State, Houston…..you got something. All of those schools have a million fans ready to watch them. There’s 6-8 ACC schools that can’t add a million to a TV rating.
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
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VTCALS72
1y
If the 2 leagues were combined, those would no be the last 7 schools in the standings this year nor probably any year.
As soon as Duke has a couple more years of the upped money they will equal Kansas in football, MBB and WBB.
If we look at the post realignment what you have is a bunch of mid west teams that no one in the east care a bit about and a bunch of eastern teams that no one in the mid west cares about.
And as far as your million viewers, are you counting past years when Tx and OU were on the schedules? I do agree that if you take the real regional core of the Texas schools, OSU, the Kansas schools and ISU then that is about the geographic size that creates the kind of rivalries that can get a million viewers especially in areas where there is no real P2 team.
What does the future really look like as big media/P2 tighten their grip? And that is what we have to look at.
(In response to this post by hokieZ71)
1y
KU in football, and already matches them in MBB and WBB in my opinion. That, however, is on the court, and on the field. Where you are wrong, is that Duke is a small private school, and will never match Iowa State in football eyeballs, and Iowa State rivals them in MBB and WBB in eyeballs - and they have never won anything.
The B12 has a few privates, but most are large public Universities with very loyal fans. I would compare most of the B12 schools to VT, except they are playing other VT's who also have loyal following. They will fill their stadiums, and get solid ratings whether or not they are ranked, having an off season, or are on streaming. It will not matter who they play.
Obviously, any school in the B12 would get better ratings if they played Texas, OU, Alabama, USC, Ohio State, ND, ... (pick a blue blood). It's the ratings they get when NOT playing those types of teams that separates them from the small private schools on the East Coast.
IMHO, the only way that the ACC and B12 are going to compete with eyeballs, and get on the major networks, is to produce matchups that those on the East Coast, Fly Over, and the West Coast would be interested in, and tune into. That would be ranked playoff contenders.
The week before rivalry week, when the SEC schedule their cupcakes, Have the ACC play the B12 in football, and match the top teams against each other, on down the line. Every ACC team plays a B12 team that weekend. Alternate home field at the conference level, and produce some games that have national interest.
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
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VTCALS72
1y
nationally is nothing more than chasing the pot of gold the P2 + already has found and owns.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
1y
But you can see it from there
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hokieZ71
1y
Because they are located in BFE, Texas?
Who cares about the dedicated fans that watch them on TV, or the $$ that has flowed enough to rank them #1 in the transfer portal this year or their #9 ranked Men's Hoops team....
Oh, by the way, this year's TV viewership #'s in football.
#53. Texas Tech — 606.5K
#54. Virginia Tech — 605.8K
** Edited by hokieZ71 at 3/4/2025, 1:43:15 PM
(In response to this post by AnotherTechW)
1y
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
1y
First comes the changes to current playoff seeding.
Then comes changes to playoff model.
Then it is a new playoff contract.
Plus I think there are still some details needed for the house settlement.
And of course the revenue sharing starts with athletes.
Still a lot of pieces to move around before anyone drops a hundred million to switch conferences.
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
1y
The programs that could leave will stand to make more money and have easier schedules just to stay put for the time being. I still think all the fireworks and the big implosion will happen some time during the 2029-2030 season, when the exit penalty is halved to $100m or less, and the other conferences are negotiating and renewing their media rights agreements.
** Edited by Baltimore_Hokie at 3/3/2025, 4:39:10 PM
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
1y
I seriously doubt Fox is gonna pay for more additions unless it is ND and UNC. They are all tapped out. Same goes for ESPN. They just got through the option. I see the 2030 Fox/Big 12 date as target when the BIG contract comes up and the amount goes down to $100M. Makes more sense for everyone.
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
1y
the year ('27), I do think it is possible the P2 could expand a couple teams to coincide with that new window. I know 2030 is a popular date because the Big XII contract comes up for renewal at that time. However, how does that window coincide with the FBS Playoff window? If it is in the middle of a FBS Playoff window (assuming the P2 aren't doing their own thing at that time), then the Big XII could find itself in a somewhat awkward position. At least it may be a little challenging to project the Big XII's value when it is out of sync with the FBS Playoff contract windows.
(In response to this post by Sunsetunderground)
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2hhoop3
1y
everything, all conferences and CFP, coming around in the 2030 -2032 period, with the exception of the ACC at present. The disclosed potential settlement for the ACC seems to make it easier for those who want to leave and the reductions represent the recognition of the diminishing value of the GOR over its remaining life.
(In response to this post by VTHokie2000)
1y
Exit fee was never a question of cost as it was $50M, but the buying back of the Grant of Rights was the $500M question.
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
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Truthahn
1y
The Grant of Rights value is no one knows, half a billion right now?
(In response to this post by mrcaniac)
1y
Said they could take their media right with them.
And I think he was citing the Staples article, but I wasn't sure.
It's all sketchy right now.
** Edited by Maroon Baboon at 3/3/2025, 4:14:31 PM
(In response to this post by mrcaniac)
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VTCALS72
1y
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
1y
Can't confirm just yet though.
** Edited by Maroon Baboon at 3/3/2025, 4:12:29 PM
(In response to this post by mrcaniac)
1y
It really doesn't make any sense for any school to leave now since the B1G has shown a tendency to only give partial shares to newcomers for the first 5-10 years. USC/UCLA excepted.
The SEC has shown a preference to expand at a much slower pace to give the new schools time to adjust to the new conference. USCe and Ark joined in 1992, A&M and Mizzou in 2012, and OU and Texas in 2024. I see them adding schools closer to 2036 than 2030.
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)