Swarbrick expects big changes in 2030s
He's pessimistic about NIL. Thinks Division 1 will break up and reorganize. Interesting take.
[Post edited by HOO86 at 04/23/2022 11:07PM]
[Post edited by HOO86 at 04/23/2022 11:07PM]
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43 Replies
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PaNDalum
4y
Notre Dame fans/alums. Floating a trial balloon. The current policy is to step away from the semi pro model and giving up playing at the highest level. If this goes without major protest, that will be the decision. If there is a big donor rebellion, compromises will be made. The issue of independence will pale by comparison. The South Bend Fighting Irish? Good grief…
(In response to this post by HOO86)
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Stech
4y
My educated guess is that the SEC, pretty much like they always have, will approach the future like their teams are Professional teams. The NFL was not in the South in the first decades, and SEC football was their NFL.
The B1G on the other hand straddled the fence more. They of course will be one of the P-2, but they will also try to project an image of Academics over Athletics. Which of course will be a better fit for Notre Dame, even though many from there will not like losing Independence. However, I just don’t see Notre Dame ever giving up Tier 1 football.
Interesting times and decisions to say the least.
[Post edited by Stech at 04/25/2022 11:18PM]
The B1G on the other hand straddled the fence more. They of course will be one of the P-2, but they will also try to project an image of Academics over Athletics. Which of course will be a better fit for Notre Dame, even though many from there will not like losing Independence. However, I just don’t see Notre Dame ever giving up Tier 1 football.
Interesting times and decisions to say the least.
[Post edited by Stech at 04/25/2022 11:18PM]
(In response to this post by PaNDalum)
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Vippie1
4y
The sooner disintegration happens the better. VT , and most others, have absolutely NO path to competing at the top levels as things stand.
The sooner we can get into an association of universities with similar resources and values and have strict agreed upon rules that lead to a more or less even playing field with the ability to still ourselves in the mirror, the better!
I don't want any false hope of alignment with the more aggressive factions in this inevitable realignment.
The sooner we can get into an association of universities with similar resources and values and have strict agreed upon rules that lead to a more or less even playing field with the ability to still ourselves in the mirror, the better!
I don't want any false hope of alignment with the more aggressive factions in this inevitable realignment.
(In response to this post by HOO86)
I agree with much of his points/opinions. Two things I also am worried
about is how much more influence "Professional agents" are going to get into the mix at the high school level, and the apathy and resentment that more and more student populations are going to have towards "student athletes" earning a lot of money. We are already seeing declining student interest in attending games. Over time it will influence donations and alumni interest in attending games.
(In response to this post by HOO86)
4y
pro or semi-pro baseball team. We may get back to that. And that may not be a bad thing entertainment wise.
[Post edited by IB4TECH at 04/25/2022 6:44PM]
[Post edited by IB4TECH at 04/25/2022 6:44PM]
(In response to this post by anotherdamnyankeehokie)
Good point,. My big fear there won't be enough long term revenue toue term
Keep up the highly leveraged sports complexes that all these schools have built. Time will tell. I just know I'll be old enough not to want to contribute as well as participate as much as I do in 10 years
(In response to this post by IB4TECH)
4y
fix it. There are a lot of predictions of upcoming change, a break up, reorganizing. This would help, but will not fix the problems that have been created. Unless the problems are actually "fixed", eventually fans will start to tune out. Some already are tuning out. Maybe its a self fixing problem. Once people start tuning out, the money will start to dry up.
(In response to this post by HOO86)
My plan would be for UVA to share their $14.5 Billion endowment...
with the other 13.5 member institutions of the ACC. It works out perfectly. Every ACC school's athletic department would a get billion dollars and Notre Dame would get half a billion. UVA can save the ACC. ;)
(In response to this post by HOO86)
4y
That Endowment expansion is interesting. It started with John Casteen. He had a money raising skill. He raised tons, and then retired. Teresa Sullivan was a Michigan Provost. Money raising was not so much her skill. Her skill was curriculum. So the UVA Board of Visitors tried to fire Teresa Sullivan. The faculty mutinied and the BOV backed down. You may remember it.
Now the new President James Ryan is from Harvard, running a $5 Billion fundraising campaign. Right back where Casteen left off. The Athletic Department is responsible for $500 million of this. They just met $430 million last week. Ryan is over $3 Billion so far.
[Post edited by HOO86 at 04/25/2022 10:28PM]
Now the new President James Ryan is from Harvard, running a $5 Billion fundraising campaign. Right back where Casteen left off. The Athletic Department is responsible for $500 million of this. They just met $430 million last week. Ryan is over $3 Billion so far.
[Post edited by HOO86 at 04/25/2022 10:28PM]
(In response to this post by Old Line Hokie)
I told my nieces who attend UVA that...
the university should divide the endowment evenly among all the undergraduate students. They would all receive over $800,000.
(In response to this post by HOO86)
4y
I don't have much more information about what the consultant is telling them.
Link:
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(In response to this post by Stech)
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Stech
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4y
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4y
(In response to this post by goldendomer)
4y
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Duke and Pitt have healthy ones too.
(In response to this post by goldendomer)
I agree with Swarbrick about the NIL. It wasn't originally intended for...
recruiting and the infamous transfer portal. The transfer portal, NIL and the conference athletics revenue war joined together to create one heck of a cluster****. I also agree with Swarbrick that there are many schools who want to leave their conferences now, but he wouldn't name them (which was a smart decision on his part). I would guess that Swarbrick's list has at least 39 schools on it. LOL
(In response to this post by HOO86)
4y
(In response to this post by Old Line Hokie)
4y
They probably just didn't expect it to happen so quickly.
[Post edited by wwhokie1 at 04/24/2022 11:46PM]
[Post edited by wwhokie1 at 04/24/2022 11:46PM]
(In response to this post by Old Line Hokie)
I don't think the transfer portal was even around when NIL first came up.
Everything came together like a perfect storm.
(In response to this post by wwhokie1)
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2hhoop3
4y
about one thing, that it will take until the mid 2030s. I understand his reasoning given timing of contracts but, I doubt change will wait that long for a variety of reasons.
(In response to this post by HOO86)
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Stech
4y
do with each other. That may be the most insulting statement I’ve heard in a long time. He must really think people are incredibly dumb to buy that BS.
I prefer TerryD’s we’re selfish and proud of it, to selling that bunch of malarkey and thinking we are stupid enough to buy it.
I prefer TerryD’s we’re selfish and proud of it, to selling that bunch of malarkey and thinking we are stupid enough to buy it.
(In response to this post by HOO86)
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TerryD
4y
Some just won't admit it, for some reason.
Every school acts in its own perceived self interests.
Some just have different goals and interests, that is all.
Ohio State, for instance, gave the "Alliance" scheduling PR stunt a kill shot recently.
Why? Because it served the Buckeyes self interests, that is why.
Every school that has switched conferences voluntarily has done so due to greed and wanting more money.
No school has voluntarily moved to another conference for less cash out of some type of "principle".
They are all *****s, the only difference is the price.
[Post edited by TerryD at 04/24/2022 08:42AM]
Every school acts in its own perceived self interests.
Some just have different goals and interests, that is all.
Ohio State, for instance, gave the "Alliance" scheduling PR stunt a kill shot recently.
Why? Because it served the Buckeyes self interests, that is why.
Every school that has switched conferences voluntarily has done so due to greed and wanting more money.
No school has voluntarily moved to another conference for less cash out of some type of "principle".
They are all *****s, the only difference is the price.
[Post edited by TerryD at 04/24/2022 08:42AM]
(In response to this post by Stech)
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Stech
4y
Nurses and Doctors who put their lives on the line during the Pandemic for people they don't know, weren't thinking about themselves first. Military soldiers who run back in battle to save another wounded soldier aren't thinking about themselves first.
There have been millions of people that do things because they believe in a cause or because they just think it is right thing to do, but I will admit all of them had to overcome the selfish tendency or really self preservation.
I am sorry if you have not been around some of these people, but I have been around them a lot and they aren't the norm, I agree. However, I have had the distinct honor of knowing these people and hearing and seeing their stories. They believe in putting the mission first and some have have given their own lives for it.
[Post edited by Stech at 04/24/2022 10:19AM]
There have been millions of people that do things because they believe in a cause or because they just think it is right thing to do, but I will admit all of them had to overcome the selfish tendency or really self preservation.
I am sorry if you have not been around some of these people, but I have been around them a lot and they aren't the norm, I agree. However, I have had the distinct honor of knowing these people and hearing and seeing their stories. They believe in putting the mission first and some have have given their own lives for it.
[Post edited by Stech at 04/24/2022 10:19AM]
(In response to this post by TerryD)
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TerryD
4y
My daughter took care of sick kids with Covid whose parents refused to be vaccinated, so much so that she had Covid while pregnant.
I know lots of people like that. I am talking about college sports, which is greed central and has been for a long time.
I know lots of people like that. I am talking about college sports, which is greed central and has been for a long time.
(In response to this post by Stech)
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Stech
4y
football right now.
Too bad.
Too bad.
(In response to this post by TerryD)
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TerryD
4y
If so, there would still be a SWC, a Big 8, a Big East, etc....
All P5 level schools have been greedily drinking from the TV money trough for thirty years or more.
All P5 level schools have been greedily drinking from the TV money trough for thirty years or more.
(In response to this post by Stech)
4y
opportunities to bring in more revenue? You'd not work to bring in more money to make your teams more competitive (a goal we around here push for awfully hard)?
(In response to this post by TerryD)
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TerryD
4y
I am responding to Stech's post wherein he refers to ND's "greed" and my stance on that.
My thesis is that all schools are similarly "greedy", as they should be and have always been.
My thesis is that all schools are similarly "greedy", as they should be and have always been.
(In response to this post by Pylons)
This paragraph I found pathetic if not comical.
"Swarbrick specifically pushed back at the notion that Sankey was trying to orchestrate playoff expansion as a means of drawing Texas and Oklahoma into his league. “It’s complete bull****,†he said. “Greg’s really smart, but nobody’s that Machiavellian. I had my own views, Thompson did, Bowlsby did. We weren’t being manipulated by Greg. [The playoff] will wind up at 12."
First, I think Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC was ALREADY happening BEFORE the CFP meetings, the plan just wasn't outed yet. The SEC getting to the CFP to 12 wasn't just to appease OU and UT, but its own members who now will have an even larger mountain to climb to win the conference or be in position to get an at-large position if the CFP remained at 4. And yes, it was in deed, "Machiavellian" by Sankey--interesting word choice from any ND administrator. LOL.
Second, I think Swarbrick would LIKE this to stretch on to the mid-2030s (read: expiration of the ACC contract), but I sense it will be much sooner than that. So predicting it as late as the mid-2030s is hardly a bold take.
He's probably a little chapped that the B1G and SEC are going to have more to say about what the new landscape of college football is going to look like a generation from now than Notre Dame.
Side note: If VT is looking to leave the ACC, the last person I'd tell is Swarbrick. So I don't know who these schools are that are whispering to ND's sympathetic ear about their future escape plans, but I hope it's not us. Notre Dame will be helping Notre Dame, in true Machiavellian form. And there's nothing wrong with that. Just understand it for what it is.
[Post edited by Maroon Baboon at 04/23/2022 11:17PM]
First, I think Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC was ALREADY happening BEFORE the CFP meetings, the plan just wasn't outed yet. The SEC getting to the CFP to 12 wasn't just to appease OU and UT, but its own members who now will have an even larger mountain to climb to win the conference or be in position to get an at-large position if the CFP remained at 4. And yes, it was in deed, "Machiavellian" by Sankey--interesting word choice from any ND administrator. LOL.
Second, I think Swarbrick would LIKE this to stretch on to the mid-2030s (read: expiration of the ACC contract), but I sense it will be much sooner than that. So predicting it as late as the mid-2030s is hardly a bold take.
He's probably a little chapped that the B1G and SEC are going to have more to say about what the new landscape of college football is going to look like a generation from now than Notre Dame.
Side note: If VT is looking to leave the ACC, the last person I'd tell is Swarbrick. So I don't know who these schools are that are whispering to ND's sympathetic ear about their future escape plans, but I hope it's not us. Notre Dame will be helping Notre Dame, in true Machiavellian form. And there's nothing wrong with that. Just understand it for what it is.
[Post edited by Maroon Baboon at 04/23/2022 11:17PM]
(In response to this post by HOO86)
4y
I just hope VT's admin is only looking for VT's best interest. I don't give a rip if what's in our best interest coincides with the ACC's or not.
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
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TerryD
4y
"Should the schism come, Notre Dame would be among those that still tied its athletics to the educational mission of the school and answered to its president and academic administration. Others could essentially be spun off while retaining the school name and branding. A theoretical example (not proffered by Swarbrick): Oregon Ducks Athletics, Inc."
That lines up with prior statements by Swarbrick and Father Jenkins that ND will not participate in a breakaway that divorces athletics from education and just leases the name/brand.
We shall see.
That lines up with prior statements by Swarbrick and Father Jenkins that ND will not participate in a breakaway that divorces athletics from education and just leases the name/brand.
We shall see.
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
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Truthahn
4y
I'm pretty sure Loudoun County would build us a bigger stadium. :^)
Seriously tho, if we do that, I'm out. I won't care anything about the Blacksburg Hokies.
Seriously tho, if we do that, I'm out. I won't care anything about the Blacksburg Hokies.
(In response to this post by TerryD)
I think ND will have a lot of company and will be a fun “divisionâ€
to watch. And with all the media outlets clamoring for live sports, it will not lack for tv options.
(In response to this post by TerryD)
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Stech
4y
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PaNDalum
4y
(In response to this post by HOO86)
Frankly, the split can’t come soon enough
(In response to this post by PaNDalum)
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Stech
4y
he’s projecting that Notre Dame stays Independent for that long. However, that’s what Notre Dame wants, not necessarily for instance what Clemson and Florida State want. I think he doesn’t want them to formally challenge the GOR, so he’s projecting it’s iron clad. I am not so sure about that, contracts are broken and compromises are reached all the time. Ask Maryland.
(In response to this post by CrystalCoveHokie)