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H
Hokieewbib OP
Jan 06, 2026 at 09:11 AM ET
NCAAF cannot sustain current model for the portal and nil.
Major changes coming in the future.

40 Replies

V
vtox1
6mo
why? I do not see why they can't as long as their are fans and boosters.
The real question is can schools sustain non-revenue sports at current level with out cuts? Also, we will have different levels that still have not settled out yet G 6 may find it more challanging, etc. So far NIL and revenue share, seems to have actually hurt the SEC and bluebloods the most. If I told you 4 years ago 2025 playoff would be Miami, Ole Miss, Indiana, and Oregon you would have tought I was crazy! Miami has played in 1 ACC title game since they joined in 2004 never won conference although if ACC had correct tiebreaker they likely would have this year. Indiana until last year was a B10 bottom feeder hadn't won at all since 1993 and before. Old Miss except for Manning years has been middle of pack in SEC overall and bottom of SEC West. Oregon while typically top 15, had not been in playoff since NC game vs Auburn more than a decade ago. Clemson / Bama / FSU / USC all struggling and even GA / Michigan / ND / OSU slipped a bit this year. I mean Indiana, Vandy and Ole Miss are winning and Florida, LSU, and Auburn are firing their coaches. It is a different and unstable world. Yes you gotta have the $$$ to invest, but you better have alignment of Pres./AD/HC/GM and the right leadership and coach with a plan and ability to ID talent and spend it wisely. One can throw money at it and still lose! To win it all you gotta have a very good HC and QB, but they have to be supported by the right roster and staff executing a solid plan.
M
MKD
6mo
The P2 are going to break away from the NCAA governing body
and develop their own league with a massive television media contract. This is why teams are working so hard as to make themselves be of value to be invited to that league. The ACC is a failing conference that probably won't exist as it now stands by 2030.
HtownHokie HtownHokie
6mo
acc "sailed with the Pilot" long ago. they had their moment in the sun and
let the grass get too long. a couple sprouts became amazing trees; but the shade of assumed superiority turned into mediocrity and calcification. Swofford-itis set in and none of the acc's "horses and none of its men" could right it, sinking a once great and amazing college amateur sports saga to a wearisome, fretful death.
V
VTCALS72
6mo
The ACC will not look the same, neither will the B12 nor the P2
whole different world coming.
AirborneHokie96 AirborneHokie96
6mo
No. They (B10 and SEC) would be very dumb to do that.
As I posted in another post.... The Big Ten and SEC already get the biggest slice — leaving doesn’t magically increase it Most of the money they care about is already theirs: Big Ten media rights SEC media rights Conference‑owned networks Conference sponsorships Conference championships Leaving the NCAA doesn’t increase those dollars. Breaking away loses them two very large "shared pots" ...the CFP and March Madness — and breaking away reduces their value as a brand. Why? CFP value depends on national legitimacy. A “Big Ten + SEC only” playoff is worth less than a national playoff. ESPN and FOX pay for: national interest national markets national brackets Cutting out the ACC, Big 12, Notre Dame, etc. shrinks the product, which shrinks the check. March Madness is even more extreme. The Big Ten and SEC don’t control it. They don’t own it. They don’t have the legal authority to recreate it. And March Madness is THE NCAA’s financial engine — not the conferences’. If the Big Ten and SEC leave Division I basketball, they: lose access to the tournament lose the brand value lose the exposure lose the recruiting pipeline There is no incentive to change the status quo when the B10 is going to send $70M checks this year to their members.
U
uber hokie
6mo
We already basically have the B10 + SEC playoffs and they whine because
they only have 3/4 of the slots. ** Edited by uber hokie at 1/6/2026, 1:30:18 PM
reestuart reestuart
6mo
Coaches and schools need to agree to shift the calendar. They won't.
AirborneHokie96 AirborneHokie96
6mo
TV/Broadcast/Streaming is also driving that bus..
F
fordham
6mo
It’s all going to implode. Enjoy it while we have it
No way the money can keep up with the idiocy these days
U
uber hokie
6mo
Will enjoy it much more after it implodes and hopefully reason and common
Sense replace the greed that’s driving it now.
AirborneHokie96 AirborneHokie96
6mo
When coaching/staff/admin salaries start to get cut, then we will know
there is a problem.
Techsupport Techsupport
6mo
Only get bigger... private equity will replace the wobbly donor model...
combine that with drastically raising the revenue sharing cap by the universities.
GCHokieof91 GCHokieof91
6mo
Then it will get really ugly. You’ll have private
equity entities telling coaches which players to play and which to bench.
AirborneHokie96 AirborneHokie96
6mo
Like Boosters?
GCHokieof91 GCHokieof91
6mo
Exactly.
V
VTCALS72
6mo
It seems to me that PE is not a year after year cash inflow
Rather it is a relatively quick in and out by the PE group. If so, how does that really help? I can see infastructure where PE is a combo construction loan but not as a source of cash to pay players and coaches.
V
VTJay
6mo
Exactly, on the returns it will want/expect
Only to recapitalize it as it moves up the PE ladder. Maybe a couple teams could create such value to pay back the PE return assumption but don’t see many (and expect the tv revenue will begin to plateau at least slow as to growth). Haven’t seen results to Big 10 package across all those networks but did see it mostly lost out head to head to SEC ratings. Money is never free. What will be telling is/when schools are no longer designated as non profit and have a tax payment to make as well. ** Edited by VTJay at 1/6/2026, 1:19:22 PM
L
likehokies
6mo
Just drop the C from NCAA.
VTHokie2000 VTHokie2000
6mo
Probably makes cents to go from being called the National Collegiate
Athletic Association (NCAA) to just the National Athletic Association (NAA). Plus, the National Association of Intercollegiate Athletics is already taken by the NAIA.
E
EDGEMAN
6mo
How about NPAA
National Professional Athletic Association.
TomTurkey TomTurkey
6mo
NNEPU
National Not Employees Players Union
VTHokie2000 VTHokie2000
6mo
FWIW NPAA is currently being used by the National Professional Anglers
Association and by the Nurse Practitioner Alliance of Alabama (https://www.npalliancealabama.org). Some other "common" usages of NPAA include National Performance Appraisal Awards (NPAA) and National Protected Area Authority (NPAA). I do wonder though if "professional" is used in the associations name, then does that open the door to question the schools having an education requirement for their athletes and/or limits on how long athletes can be associated with the team? It may be a question worth asking because at that point the athletes may be no different than professors. If schools don't require their professors to earn a degree in order to maintain their "job" and/or limit how long they are allowed to work for the school, then the schools may not be able to impose those standards on the athletes.
Link: NPAA
E
EDGEMAN
6mo
So it's available...lol
VTHokie2000 VTHokie2000
6mo
Yes, I believe the name is available. From a branding perspective though
would the new organization want to share the acronym with something else? I don't think they could copyright the acronym like what I think happened with NBA, NFL, NHL, and MLB.
C
crazylane
6mo
Doesn't one of the As stand for amatuer
I'd say you can drop that too.
V
V333T
6mo
Break the NCAA monopoly, yes drop the C.
NCAA does not represent ‘colleges.’ It beneficially represents two conferences that does not include the ACC.
1
1947Sunbowl
6mo
guess what, separation, programs that can and programs that cant
and VT is preparing to be one of the programs that can....... No one is going to direct the SEC or Big 10/ND how they run their successful league. They really dont care if the ACC Big 12 and others fade.... NOT their problem. and guess what they could sustain. The key is what teams will be skimmed from the rest??? and if you dont have national branding, big budget good ratings and sucess, no matter if you get 45k in mahantan kansas you will be marginalized.
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uber hokie
6mo
Exactly - they are saying if you don’t bring 250 mil to the table
then you can’t play in our sandbox. It reeks of arrogance, greed and elitism.
AirborneHokie96 AirborneHokie96
6mo
Correct
V
V333T
6mo
Need to reduce roster sizes IMO
The Bigs have the money and soak up all the NFL calibre and marginally NFL calibre talent leaving nothing for non P2 schools. That’s overselling my argument but not by much. The money can’t be fixed; the kids are due compensation for work they’ve invested IMO. But the game can be improved; reduce scholarship rosters to the pre 105 level…heck, make it 66 giving 3 deep on both sides of the ball. Maybe punters/kickers will need to do some PT and contact conditioning. While we’re at it, let’s return to leather helmets without face masks and tissue paper pads.
Techsupport Techsupport
6mo
I believe roster size will be corrected by the market...
Even Ohio State, Texas, and Bama don't have enough money to maintain a super deep depth chart. Are you going to match a 2nd tier school's $1M offer to keep that guy sitting on your bench? Totally unsustainable. There's a ton of money being thrown around right now, things are in flux, but I believe things will settle down.
V
V333T
6mo
Free market in the NCAA?
I’m a free market person and yes, the market will make corrections. And the Bigs will have to pay for the top tier talent. But even with the burden of purchasing the top talent, they will still have enough money to pay for the bottom half of their roster than does Troy, or NC Central, or App State…. What’s really unsustainable it the university/college system. A kid cannot go to college only to be given a post collegiate job that pays less than what could have been gotten with a HS degree. That is unsustainable for sure. Rosters will adjust when collegiate enrollments collapse. And micro economics would say that realization is soon to hit the post high school “higher learning” industry.
VTHokie2000 VTHokie2000
6mo
Isn't the advantage the P2s have in the media contracts giving them an
advantage to manipulate the market to maintain a super deep depth chart for a longer period of time? At least long enough until the other DI schools gradually decide they can't compete in this market, so they are going to switch to either DII, DIII, or form a brand new division level within the NCAA. It may even be a game of chicken to see who flinches first; the P2s or everyone else.
AirborneHokie96 AirborneHokie96
6mo
What will motivate a Conference like the B10 to flinch?
VTHokie2000 VTHokie2000
6mo
They want a bigger slice of the money. Instead of splitting the money pie
32 ways, they want to split it as few as 2 ways so they take their toys and go play in a different sand box. Or they can just wait it out until the others flinch first. Depending on when the contract (i.e. CFP, March Madness, Frozen Four, etc.) come up for renewal, it may be to their financial advantage to just go do their own thing now instead of waiting for the others to flinch. The result would still be the same, but the timeline would be different.
AirborneHokie96 AirborneHokie96
6mo
In 10 years, their slice has grown from $35M per school to $70M per school
in the B10. They are growing at a fantastic rate in the current situation where they dominate sports and media contracts. The Big Ten and SEC already get the biggest slice — leaving doesn’t magically increase it. I know you believe that if the Big Ten and SEC break away, they’ll suddenly split the pie “2 ways instead of 32.” But that’s not how the money works. Most of the money they care about is already theirs: Big Ten media rights SEC media rights Conference‑owned networks Conference sponsorships Conference championships Those revenues are not split 32 ways. They’re split within each conference. Leaving the NCAA doesn’t increase those dollars. The only big shared pots are CFP and March Madness — and breaking away reduces their value. CFP value depends on national legitimacy. A “Big Ten + SEC only” playoff is worth less than a national playoff. ESPN and FOX pay for: national interest national markets national brackets Cutting out the ACC, Big 12, Notre Dame, etc. shrinks the product, which shrinks the check. March Madness is even more extreme. The Big Ten and SEC don’t control it (NCAA HQ does). They don’t own it. They don’t have the legal authority to recreate it. And March Madness is THE NCAA’s financial engine — not the conferences’. If the Big Ten and SEC leave Division I basketball, they: lose access to the tournament lose the brand value lose the exposure lose the recruiting pipeline They would be lighting money on fire for no good reason.
VTHokie2000 VTHokie2000
6mo
ESPN and possibly Fox may disagree with you since they seem to be pushing
for the Big Ten and SEC to have even more access to the CFP than they already do now. If that wasn't the case, then the 5th ranked SEC team (Alabama) wouldn't have made it in the CFP over Notre Dame. For the record, I don't agree with ESPN's position. I have always thought all 10 FBS conferences should have received an automatic bid to any FBS playoffs. Then again, I am not the one cutting the checks so my opinion doesn't matter. If ESPN, Netflix, Amazon Prime, Fox, or anyone else wants a P2 only FBS playoff and they are willing to cut a large enough check, then I do think you will see the Big Ten and SEC agree to it without any hesitation.
AirborneHokie96 AirborneHokie96
6mo
Separate media‑company incentives from conference incentives and structural
reality. ESPN and FOX wanting more P2 access ≠ “P2 should leave the NCAA”. Media companies want: More Big Ten and SEC inventory More high‑rating matchups More predictable brands More control over the postseason But that does NOT mean they want: A breakaway league A P2‑only playoff The destruction of March Madness The collapse of national legitimacy Why? Because a P2‑only postseason is worth less money than a national one. ESPN wants more P2 access within the national structure — not a separate structure. A P2‑only playoff would require: ESPN/FOX to pay MORE for FEWER teams Advertisers to pay MORE for LESS reach Fans to accept LESS national representation That’s not how media economics works. If anything, the networks want: more playoff rounds (more TV/Broadcast slots to fill especially during the holidays more teams, more inventory, more national markets. It’s the same reason the NFL doesn’t cut out half its teams even though Cowboys–Packers draws more than Jaguars–Titans. ESPN pushing for more SEC/B1G access is about ratings, not structure. The Alabama vs. Notre Dame example is a perfect illustration of this. ESPN didn’t “force” Alabama in. They lobbied for a format that: maximizes ratings maximizes brand value maximizes playoff drama That’s not the same as: wanting a P2‑only playoff wanting the Big Ten and SEC to leave the NCAA wanting to eliminate national participation They want the most valuable teams in the biggest possible tournament. A P2‑only playoff shrinks the audience. Not only that, but a P2‑only playoff is worth less money than a national playoff. A national CFP sells: every region every demographic every alumni base every advertiser segment A P2‑only CFP sells: two regions two conferences a narrower demographic fewer markets It’s the difference between the World Cup vs a two‑country invitational. Even if the two countries are Brazil and Germany, the global value collapses. The Big Ten and SEC do NOT gain by leaving the NCAA. They lose March Madness access. They lose national legitimacy. They lose the NCAA’s legal shield. They become the direct defendants in every lawsuit. They fracture their own brands. They reduce the value of the CFP. The Big Ten and SEC are not stupid. They want control, not separation. The likely trajectory is: A CFP format where the Big Ten and SEC get more guaranteed access A governance structure where the P2 have more voting power A revenue model where the P2 take a larger share A national playoff that still includes other conferences Domination, not secession. That’s the model the NFL uses where big brands dominate and small brands still exist. The league stays national. The product stays valuable.
V
VTDC
6mo
This is exactly right. But if the non-P2 are smart, they use the leverage
they have to ensure they are guaranteed to stay close as possible to the P2. The P2 doesn't hold all the cards as they NEED the other 2 conferences to keep the $ as high as possible from a national sport. This is why VT and others outside do have leverage. And the P2 won't continue to separate as much as those believe it will forever in the future. The NFL designed it specifically with a salary cap and draft to do just that. Not the same for CFB, but do believe there will be movement in that direction to keep this all viable for both. Some P2 will still continue to be at the top because of what those schools are for a long time, but I do think there will be rule changes to keep everyone closer on even footing than the past 10 years or so have been because of different TV deals.
VTHokie2000 VTHokie2000
6mo
FWIW DI-FCS offer 63 scholarships in football. If FBS is going to reduce
to 66 scholarships, then does DI football still need 2 subdivisions for football? Also, it is worth noting that DII only offers 35 equivalent scholarships in football with a roster limit of 53 players. I forget exactly what is written in the DII Bylaws, but it is around that number.