The way the polls are shaping up, it appears they are angling
for the ACC and B12 to be a one bid conference.
No respect for Pitt, SMU, Iowa State, or even BYU. Many here will not be surprised.
Miami will have to be upset in the championship for there to be two ACC teams, as a one loss Miami will get an invite.
BYU could lose in the B12 Championship game, but I'm not sure a one loss BYU would get an invite. 2 losses negates any at large bid, in both conferences.
It may be time to seriously consider breaking away from the P2, in all sports.
65 Replies
1y
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
This year, so no reason why either should have more than one team
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
Iowa
Michigan
Nebraska
Ohio State
Penn State
Wisconsin
Washington
UCLA
USC
Oregon
Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
LSU
Tennessee
Texas A&M
Texas
Oklahoma
That's 19 teams with either a current or past brand that can be easily marketed (and many of them with very large fan bases). Any given year, there will likely be 8 of these 19 teams that have records good enough for the playoffs. That leaves 1 spot for ND, 1 spot for G5, and 2 spots for ACC/B12.
That's what we are up against. It doesn't matter how "deserving" a team might be in the ACC/B12. There is big money behind big brands and the playoffs will mostly be some combination of the above every single year (unless/until the ACC does break up at some point causing more P2 expansion).
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
N
NoHuddle
1y
Time to get rid of the Committee and let the BCS polls decide 5-12.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
...and they push a button.
(In response to this post by NoHuddle)
S
Stech
1y
** Edited by Stech at 11/7/2024, 3:45:55 PM
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
Take the P3,4 and 5 and create something entirely new.
F - the big guys and their bloated athletic budgets....
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
V
Vippie1
1y
This was and is and has been the plan all along.
Sure there may be an occasional year when they have to give a second bid to another conference .
Oh and guess what- the P2 teams are more or less going to phase out playing the ACC and B12 in OOC games and then the Committee can use the "well a good record but they didnt play anyone excuse" to keep them at one bid conferences.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
Is it like the NCAA tournament where each conference gets a unit for each game played?
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
matter who participates.
(In response to this post by VT ChemE 1986)
1y
From getting in. If it were a unit system they wouldn’t care as much knowing that their teams would play more and make more.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
so their timing was bad. Same with Pitt, who just got crushed. ND has better wins than SMU. BYU is the victim of some teams in the Big XII not being as good as expected. If they win the conference and go undefeated, they likely end up with a 4 seed, so who can complain about that? If BYU and SMU are getting the short stick, how about Indiana? I could see shuffling a few 6-12, but not much.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
of at larges, and they will have to win the championship the get in.
Indiana, if they lose to Michigan this week, will also fall below the 12 ranking it will take to get an at large, and sets up a heartbreaker against Ohio State. I do not think Indiana gets in with two losses. if Ohio State loses to Indiana, and has two losses, they will get a bid IMHO. They struggled against the two quality teams they have played, and lost one of them. yet, their rankings, even with another loss, will not push them down far enough to not get an at large.
The polls need to be out of this completely. Give the BIG and SEC 3 or 4 teams in a 16 team playoff, and give the ACC 2-3 bids, and let the best teams in the conference get invited, regardless of the polls.
Let ND and the G6 hash out the two remaining spots, maybe with conference champions playing in a mini play in playoff, with the top two teams getting an invite.
(In response to this post by reestuart)
1y
and this is the initial ranking. I think it's fair, but yeah, I can see some non-blue bloods get the shaft.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
Blue bloods this year are clearly better
Other years you can debate the others. Not so much this year.
(In response to this post by reestuart)
E
EDGEMAN
1y
I knew it as soon as I saw the details of this 12 team playoff. This 12 team playoff wasn't designed to find the best team, but to send additional millions to the P2 conferences.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
I agree completely …..And I would break away ASAP …..
Otherwise, the non P2 teams will be perpetual canon fodder and act as props for the P2 teams to supposedly support their legitimacy.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
(In response to this post by CrystalCoveHokie)
1y
This is all about an SEC/B10 monopoly.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
It is just a question of whether the ACC champion receives an automatic bid or Miami receives an at-large bid. At this point, the P2 should do its own thing for all sports. While the remaining FBS and FCS schools recombine for football and do their own thing for all sports (including the non-football DI schools). At least the NCAA DI Football Playoffs would be more interesting because the Football Final Four could have the following match-ups (home team is the second team).
Pitt vs. North Dakota State
South Dakota State vs. BYU
And yes I did pick 2 Missouri Valley Football Conference teams for a reason.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
top 5 conference champions get an automatic bid. If Miami were lose the championship, they would most certainly get an at large bid to go with the champion.
That would be best case, and the ACC would have two teams in the playoffs.
(In response to this post by VTHokie2000)
1y
The ACC and the Big 12 are not getting more than one team in the 12 team playoff. It's just not going to happen on anything more than an extremely rare basis. It's simple math.
The winners and runners up of the SEC and the B1G are definitely in, without question. That's 4 spots gone. If ND has 3 or less losses, which they will, they're definitely in, without question. That's 5 spots gone. ACC and Big 12 each get one, because they're now considered JV loser conferences that nobody cares about, that's 7 spots gone. They have to give a spot to the G5, for now; that's 8 spots gone. Now, there are only 4 spots left. There are still 16 B1G teams and 14 SEC teams that do not have a spot. Even in years where ND doesn't get in, that will be 5 spots for 30 (30!!!) SEC and B1G programs before you even GET to the ACC and Big 12, both of which the casual consumer is reminded week after week after week by their "wonderful business partners" at ESPN are inferior products that nobody cares about or watches.
If you think the ACC or Big 12 are getting more than one team into the CFP on anything more than a "the stars have aligned" basis, then you're really hopped up on the good stuff, and I wish you'd share some with all of us living in reality.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
because you think it, does not make it fact. Reality has a way of standing up, and smacking some upside the head, and in my world, out here in flyover country, we do not share the opinion that it's all over but the crying.
I refuse to live in a world where the sky is falling. I understand the money realities, but there continues to be the business of playing the game on the field.
The B12, and the ACC may not ever compete with the money the P2 generates, but if you honestly believe that your school, or any other school not in the P2 will not compete, then you may as well just hang up your cleats, and call it a day.
(In response to this post by Baltimore_Hokie)
1y
Who cares? It doesn't matter if there are 3 undefeated Big 12 teams, only one is getting in the CFP.
You need to cut the corn-fed bootstrap midwestern naivete act out at some point and accept that the Big 12 was left behind, just like the ACC was left behind. Neither matters anymore. They're not part of the program. To the extent they even still give out auto-bids to the CFP after the format is tweaked in a couple years during the contract negotiation, any auto-bid afforded to the Big 12 or ACC is nothing more than a token invitation to keep them quiet, no different than the G5 representative.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
rules say is that the top 5 ranked conference champions will receive an automatic bid to the FBS Playoffs. Basically the 9 FBS conferences are competing against each other for the 5 automatic bids. If you assume the Big Ten and SEC are always guaranteed automatic bids, then the 7 remaining conferences (ACC, AAC, Big XII, C-USA, MAC, MWC, and Sun Belt) are competing against each other for the 3 remaining automatic bids. It is possible the ACC and/or Big XII could find themselves ranked lower than multiple G5 champions in the final CFP Poll and not receive an automatic bid.
(In response to this post by Baltimore_Hokie)
1y
I'd say it would be next to impossible, unless a G5 program finds a way to play and beat a schedule full of ACC/B1G/SEC/Big 12 programs instead of their conference schedule.
(In response to this post by VTHokie2000)
1y
conference could get left out at some point. I don't think it will happen very many times and I don't think we will see it happen before the new CFP contract goes into effect in 2026-27 (I think).
(In response to this post by Baltimore_Hokie)
1y
but the AAC, MWC, Pac-12, and the others aren't even in [Don Vito Corleone voice] "da family."
Under the current format, if it were to happen, it would require a G5 program going undefeated against an OOC schedule of all ranked ACC/Big 12/SEC/B1G programs and then manhandling the conference schedule and championship game opponent. Then it would STILL be a long shot for two G5 champions (because they're getting in anyway, along with the ACC and Big 12 champ) to be ranked higher than the ACC or Big 12 champ.
Change the format, and the analysis changes, but I don't think they will allow a scenario to account for no ACC or Big 12 teams in the playoff. Why would anyone involved (besides the G5 conferences) want that?
(In response to this post by VTHokie2000)
1y
the conference. If the ESPN/FOX/Big Ten/SEC ultimate plan is for the P2s to break away or form their own football playoffs, then most people would agree that the ACC is the only conference left with any valuable property. Depending on when the next CFP contract is scheduled to expire, the "plan" may not be willing to wait around for the ACC's GOR to expire in 2036. If the ACC is left out 1 time or multiple times (not sure the tipping point), then the football schools with value and a potential P2 home may be more motivated to get out of the ACC as quickly as possible. It is even entirely possible that ESPN may want it to happen because it makes better business sense (or cents if you will) than having those properties stick it out in the ACC until June 30, 2036.
(In response to this post by Baltimore_Hokie)
1y
You go ahead a cry me a river.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch in flyover, we will be playing ball.
I contend that your opinion is an emotional outburst because your conference as it is, continues to be on the table. We have already gone through all of that in the B12, and we have a chip on our shoulder.
Wanna play a game? Go ahead, and schedule a one and one with a K-state, BYU, Utah, OSU, ISU, and many others, Not just VT, but all of the other wannabe's that think they should be in the P2.
(In response to this post by Baltimore_Hokie)
1y
Take a chill pill. What I AM saying is that you were left out. You were stepped over. The Big 12 is Fredo, just like the ACC. It doesn't matter what you do, you're on the outside looking in. It's done, it's over.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
you from my roof top. The P2 made their money grab, but I do not buy into your assertion that the rest of us are fodder, and will not compete.
I mean, really, nothing has changed. Texas will make more money than anyone left in the B12, it has always been that way, and it always will. Yet, even with all of their money, ranking in the polls, choice TV spots, ...etc, they did not dominate the other programs in the B12 on the field, or on the court.
It's not done, it's not over, and whoever wins the national championship will have to do it with at least one of the leftover B12 teams in the field - sometimes two. The B12 team or teams will have to be beat on the field. Who the hell cares if the SEC and BIG get more money and teams in the expanded playoffs? All that matters is if VT (pick a school) wins their conference or not.
Seems to me, that all of the leftover B12 teams are better off with the opportunity to compete for a national championship now. The polls will be used to get the blue bloods into the playoffs because that is just the way it is - and always has been. What is different, is that a K- State (example) just needs to win their conference championship, and they are in. No longer do you have to be one of the top 4 "ranked" teams.
It appears that Boise State should be the G5 team this year. Umm, they have a quarterback that transferred from USC, and they are playing pretty good ball. Do you think a one loss BSU would have been considered in the past? They will be a tough out for whoever draws them. Is it doom and gloom for them? No, they are pumped, and I assure you, any B12 team that gets an opportunity to play an OSU or Georgia will be pumped as well.
(In response to this post by Baltimore_Hokie)
1y
for a CFP championship. This is clearly the case because, whether it's codified as part of the format or not, the reality is that the membership of both the Big 12 and the ACC have a much smaller window of access to the CFP field than the competition in the B1G and SEC. That's it. That's a fact, and it's all you really need to understand. Every single year, it is a matter of fact that the B1G and the SEC will get more of their programs into the field, which makes it much more difficult for any one ACC or Big 12 program to win the championship.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
definitely have a larger window to be included in the playoffs - I don't understand how you can't see that.
The P2 has all of the advantages built in over the ACC and B12, and I say, so the heck what? A two loss Clemson can most definitely get into the playoffs this year, yet they would have been shut out last year. They just have to win out.
Does it really matter that two or three two loss teams get an at large? Not to the conference champion it doesn't. Will a one loss Miami get left out? Over a 2 loss PSU or Indiana? Or the bottom 2 loss SEC team? I don't think so.
We will see about a one loss BYU. But I think they get an invite as well if their only loss is the conference championship.
The P2 will get theirs, and they will get their money. I say, so what.
(In response to this post by Baltimore_Hokie)
1y
the smaller the window of access for a conference membership, the harder it is for any individual team in that conference to win the CFP. I don't care if we're talking about UTEP or Alabama. If, tomorrow, any program wakes up and finds itself in a conference that is only going to get ONE TEAM in the CFP field on any given year, not only are they having to fight tooth and toenail against their own conference membership to get that one spot, they then have to turn around and fight 3-4 teams from the P2, Notre Dame, and the reps from the other scrub conferences.
It's simple math. I'm not trying to be rude or mean; I like conversing with you, but I think you're extremely delusional on this point. The Big 12 and the ACC have both been left behind, just like the G5 was left behind in the 90s, and that's just the fact of the matter. They no longer matter, at all. They have no influence. They have no clout. They are entirely unnecessary in the current paradigm. Under the current format, or one that only hands out at-large bids with no AQ spots, I would go so far as to predict that no team from the ACC or the Big 12 will ever win a CFP championship.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
much of a voice the NFL has in some of the decisions. If the NFL wants all the at-large bids to go to the P2 conferences (and Notre Dame), then do you truly believe ESPN will bite the hand that feeds it or say "Yes, sir" and make it happen?
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
there are a lot of ifs in that question.
I believe that now that the P2 has their money, and they will get the best time slots, that the rest of us will have a difficult time beating them on the field.
The question I ask everyone: Is that any different than it was 10 years ago? 20 years ago? The blue bloods have always made more money, have always had an advantage in recruiting, have always got the ratings on TV - really, since the beginning of time.
The difference now, is that we will have the best of the G6 with a legitimate chance to play in those games. We will no longer have an undefeated FSU kept out of the dance.
A 2 loss Clemson has a legitimate chance to be in the playoffs. All they have to do is win out. Same with a 2 loss K - state.
How many times in history has an ACC, B12, or SEC team played the Big 10 champ in the Rose Bowl?
Instead of hanging our heads about how much money the P2 makes, lets field teams that can beat them. Having big NIL money does not buy you a championship - just ask FSU.
We are playing really good football in the B12 without a blue blood amongst us. The stadiums are sold out. We will be in the playoffs with one or two teams this year. From where I'm sitting, lets play ball, and the scoreboard will determine the National Champion, not the polls.
We just need the ACC to find a way to remain a P4 conference, and it will all be good. I don't care who we play in the playoffs, or how many teams the SEC or BIG get in - it's irrelevent.
(In response to this post by VTHokie2000)
1y
than 2 teams playing in a BCS bowl game. As a result, the high tier bowls (i.e. Alamo Bowl, Holiday Bowl, Citrus Bowl, Gator Bowl, etc.) had the opportunity to select quality opponents for their game. So on paper people were looking forward to watching the game even if the actual game ended up being a blowout. Now the FBS Playoff will have the majority of games involving teams from 2 conferences. I suspect a good percentage of the time the games will involve teams from the same conference and/or be a rematch from a regular season game. Don't be surprised if this year's Final Four is a repeat of last year's Final Four (aka quasi all-Big Ten/SEC).
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
I would not automatically assume that the ACC would be a 2-bid conference. Particularly when there are "more deserving" multi-loss Big Ten and SEC teams waiting in the wings for Miami and/or Clemson to stumble down the finish line. Heck you could even see some voters decide to "punish" Miami and ultimately the ACC for how the ACC handled the end of the VT-Miami game and the Miami vs. Cal game a week later.
Under "normal" circumstances, I do agree with you that the ACC would be a 2-bid conference. I'm just not convinced the current environment for FBS football qualifies as normal circumstances. Too many people have too much money invested in the Big Ten and SEC to be able to resist the temptation to manipulate the system in some way. The way last season played out for FSU in the weekly CFP Polls even makes a strong case that the circumstances are no longer normal anymore.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
E
EDGEMAN
1y
...B12 team. It's the nature of the beast the P2 has constructed.
(In response to this post by VTHokie2000)
1y
that the ACC will always be a 1 bid conference as long as it is affiliated with the College Football Playoff LLC (aka the non-profit organization that runs the FBS Playoffs).
(In response to this post by EDGEMAN)
E
EDGEMAN
1y
...to ever get a second team into the playoff.
(In response to this post by VTHokie2000)
1y
two invites every time there is an upset in the championship game. As a matter of fact, if K-State for instance, wins out, they will be the B12 champion with two losses. If that happens, a one loss BYU will in all likely hood get an at large over many 2 loss BIG and SEC teams (non blue bloods), and no 3 loss team will get an invite over a one loss B12 team that loses the championship game. If BYU wins the championship game, and finishes undefeated, the B12 will only get one into the playoffs this year.
This scenario will play out every year we are in the current format.
The ACC is different. Any FSU, Clemson, or Miami team that finishes with one loss will get an at large bid, and depending on the pre season rankings, and who they lose too, it is possible (not likely) any one of those teams with two losses could get an at large bid. It is possible that the ACC on a rare occasion could get 3 in the playoffs, but I do not see that as a realistic rare occasion in the B12.
We will see, but those SEC teams are about to beat up on each other.
(In response to this post by EDGEMAN)
1y
for Christmas, but little do you know that you're really just getting a LCD Tiger Handheld and tube socks because you're a step-child and your parents like your two brothers better than you.
** Edited by Baltimore_Hokie at 11/7/2024, 12:27:43 PM
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
Just keep moving forward, and you'll get through them. Finally accepting a situation as it exists, and not how you wish it was or how it should be, is a long road, but it's ultimately worth it.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
team. How will you react if you are wrong? Will it change your perception of the FBS Playoffs? I ask because there is a possibility that TAMU, LSU, Ole Miss, Alabama, Vandy, and Mizzou could finish the season with 3 losses and still receive an at-large bid. If you base it on this week's poll and assuming Notre Dame ends up with a spot, then it is possible that Alabama and either LSU or TAMU could end up with the #11 and #12 spot instead of SMU, Pitt, Iowa State, or Kansas State. IIWII at this point in time. Plus, the ACC and Big XII may want it to happen because it gives the College Football Playoffs LLC the perfect justification/execuse to expand the FBS Playoffs.
"Hey ACC and Big XII. If you want to guarantee that multiple teams from your conference get to participate in the FBS Playoffs, then you should support the proposal to expand the FBS Playoffs to either 24 or 32 teams. If the FBS Playoffs is that large, then you won't have to worry about the Big Ten and SEC receiving all the at-large bids." *wink wink*
** Edited by VTHokie2000 at 11/7/2024, 10:02:06 AM
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
would become an active advocate for the last sentence of my original post.
I just do not see that happening.
(In response to this post by VTHokie2000)
1y
invested in the Big Ten and SEC and the networks believing those conferences generate the best ratings, that alone should tell you it could be a real possibility. Heck last year's quasi All Big Ten/SEC FBS Playoffs should suggest to you that the foundation has been laid for it to happen most years until the new playoff contract becomes active.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
factor which teams get to participate, then it shouldn't surprise you.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
sell. Any one of those teams get an at large with one loss. The b12 doesn't have any blue bloods, so I see a one loss BYU non champion, on the ropes.
(In response to this post by VTHokie2000)
1y
program out of the CFP. It is going to take the brand argument a few years before it regains the credibility that was lost by that decision. Plus, you can never be too sure someone doesn't have an alternative motive (i.e. create more instability within the ACC) driving their decisions.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
(In response to this post by VTHokie2000)
1y
committee really cared that much about brands, then UDub should have been the odd team out.
(In response to this post by tarheelblue)