Project Rudy
42 Replies
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2hhoop3
1y
and then reread this article as many times as it takes to absorb all the information and food for thought provided. It is a fairly comprehensive discussion of a model and alternatives that lays bare the goals and objectives of the P2 that, if they had their way, they would implement with no outside fingers in the pie.
When you got guys like Sankey and Swarbrick involved you better have your free hand on your wallet while they are talking. Petiti is likely of the same ilk he just has not been around long enough to observe his actions diverging from his words. If the the P2 and ND agree to this project it will signal that the guaranteed concessions they have received are greater than the perceived risk of trying to pull this off on their own insight of antitrust and other litigation risks.
College football is akin to the large dying or dead whale and all the sharks are circling looking to get a bite before it goes down. In the Smash concept the 5% - 12.5% fee likely coupled with interest rates on the initial capital infusions available for contract buyouts will get the ROI rolling and the control provisions coupled with the networks as a minority investor will firmly reset the shot callers. As always the devil and the murder weapon will be in the details.
Interesting article. Thanks for the link.
** Edited by 2hhoop3 at 10/9/2024, 7:36:21 PM
(In response to this post by MrBayAreaHokie)
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TerryD
1y
ND just wants to stay independent indefinitely.
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
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2hhoop3
1y
and the hope of others like you. However, ND's independence is and always has been to competing at the highest level for championships and if that option is no longer available as an independent ND will likely shift tracks. Their position now is much more tenuous than prior times because they are no longer a necessity for the credibility of a breakaway league.
(In response to this post by TerryD)
1y
Envision three ESPN alums and J. Swarbrick inviting you into their garden of wealth for everyone. If I were a cynic, I might detect a scent of subterfuge. I think the B1G needs to derail this, whether Sankey buys-in or not.
I have long been concerned about The SEC's prospects for keeping up with The B1G in media money. The B1G needs to add only a few strategic pieces for their OTA's to have an advertising goldmine. It doesn't even need to be Earth shattering, like USC/UCLA. It could be as simple as Miami/Ga Tech and two of Az St/Stanford/Utah. And what if ND acquiesces? The SEC will counter with streaming subscriptions... I guess.
If Sankey has concerns similar to mine, he might be receptive to Rudy's Big Adventure.
Rudy's adventure will
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
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2hhoop3
1y
knows the score. He also knows that "advertising goldmine" long term is only as good as the actual product on the field. Finally, both the P2 know the fewer hands in the pie the bigger their share. The hook with Rudy, particularly with promotion and relegation allows them to cull the herd as part of business versus distasteful realignment antics and the cherry on top, if Congress plays ball, is it may serve as a shield to antitrust litigation. I think their projections are pretty optimistic and they have glossed over the thornier details. Sankey does not sound like a guy with concerns about his ability to compete regardless of where ND or others land. So far he has gotten pretty much everything he planned with minimal hiccups.
(In response to this post by 33laszlo99)
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Truthahn
1y
But he did eventually actually play, and even got a sack. Just sayin'.
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
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Marooned
1y
They will need a paycheck to go away.
I also think that a relegation/tier system is basically taking what’s going on at a conference level and pushing it to a program level. There will be a dozen blue bloods and the rest will be forever looking up.
For schools like VT to succeed, we need more ways to infuse cash into our own program regardless of whether or not this arrangement ever gets any legs. [For example, I’m thinking someday we can have tiny cameras on the helmets where fans with VR goggles can experience what it looks like to be in the game. We are, after all, Virginia TECH.]
(In response to this post by MrBayAreaHokie)
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Stech
1y
what this whole proposal is about. There is a 1 in a 1,000,000 chance this goes through. So they still have a chance. 🤣
Notre Dame is going to likely be out selfished unless the courts jump in on an antitrust lawsuit. Oh well, in our lawsuit happy world, expect that to happen. 🤷♂️
(In response to this post by MrBayAreaHokie)
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HouClone
1y
Pat can either be a chick or a dude. This Project Rudy still keeps the revenue distribution too unfair. 2:1 between Tier 1 and Tier 2 and 2:1 between Tier 2 and Tier 3. As it stands now, the Big 10 and SEC already are at 2:1 or 2.5:1 to the ACC or Big 12. The gap to the G5 - geez.
If not equal, do they really need such a gap between the tiers? How about 1.25:1 or 1.5:1?
Not a fan of excluding the G5 also. Last I saw, they play the same brand of football and beat brands too.
(In response to this post by MrBayAreaHokie)
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Vippie1
1y
Link:
not this Rudy ?
(In response to this post by MrBayAreaHokie)
1y
...when they stand to gain financially from the pitched "solution".
(In response to this post by MrBayAreaHokie)
1y
five years before setting up the tiers.
(In response to this post by MrBayAreaHokie)
1y
They can do a version of this themselves, while keeping full control and also keeping all the money and staying far ahead of the ACC and B12 and PAC for revenue.
I think there is a good solution out there. But I don’t think this PE driven approach is it.
(In response to this post by MrBayAreaHokie)
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Stech
1y
trying to use PE money to try to somewhat keep up.
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
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EDGEMAN
1y
...they'll make more by doing it. It will take Fox and ESPN to make that happen.
(In response to this post by Stech)
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Stech
1y
more than going it alone. Private Equity firms are going to be much much better than Commissioners at negotiating with the Media Companies. That’s where they many times make their money, and that’s how the PE will make their money getting a much better media deal where they will make part of the higher payments.
Just look at the ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips, his background like Swofford’s before becoming the Commissioner was that of an AD. They can run athletic departments, but both have been way over their head negotiating with the media. The paradigm has shifted, and the ACC clutches to the past, and it’s really hurting us. The PE people can accelerate the money with their negotiating skills, especially if they did this prior for media companies.
(In response to this post by EDGEMAN)
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2hhoop3
1y
far too much value to what PE firms bring to the table. Realistically the immediate cash infusion could be helpful for some but, it is really the old Fram oil filter scenario as the windfall comes due later. I doubt the PE firms possess magic negotiation skills over and above the media consulting firms that have previously advised conferences. It really comes down to leverage and a cohort of 70 possesses more leverage than single individual conferences. The question then becomes how the revenue pie gets divided. Here is where the rubber meets the road, do the big boys ram the revenue split from the increased leverage down the throats of the smaller schools like they did with the House settlement or is their a more equitable distribution recognizing a strong, healthy product top to bottom raises future leverage? This model or something similar is probably the future but, the schools should recognize they can do this banding together without giving PE a larger than warranted slice for not a lot of additional expertise that they bring to the table, IMO.
(In response to this post by Stech)
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Stech
1y
negotiated often for the other side of negotiations, and they know what’s important for that entity that they used to work for many times in the past. That expertise many times delivers results most didn’t think possible. So my experience has been different from what you are saying. We will find out soon enough IMHO. These P2 meetings aren’t tea parties, and the other conferences know it, and are looking for ways to make up the difference if they break off. Both the B12 and now even the ACC Commissioner said he is considering using them.
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
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2hhoop3
1y
when getting involved with PEs is what unique skill, assets and knowledge can they bring to the table AND what costs do you incur and/or other things do you give up to secure their involvement. We all know PEs have target rates of return and they do nothing purely out of the goodness of their hearts.
The model, like I said, may be ultimately where things go. The parties involved just have to decide the best way to get there and who should be involved. From where I sit, industry and negotiating expertise can likely be garnered from a variety of sources, including but, not exclusive to PE. Financial resources or operational expertise and depth may be more in the PE wheelhouse. We'll see what happens.
(In response to this post by Stech)
1y
football, when the P2 control the major networks on cable and the prime time slots for their games. Maybe thru streaming, gate receipts, and merchandise but I'm no financial expert. Can someone enlighten me on how private equity would work? Thanks.
(In response to this post by Stech)
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Stech
1y
Sankey is saying we want to do it ourselves. The question is, will they take more schools, and if so, how many?
Now I could see the ACC and B12 working together like the SEC and B1G, and if they do, going after Private Equity money to try to equal the money playing field.
I could also see the G6 maybe trying to work together too with Private Equity for lesser money. Maybe it will only be done in two’s like the PAC and AAC for instance. The MWC and Sunbelt and the MAC and Conference USA.
I know this, and Sankey stated it, the SEC are not going to share with any other Conference their big time money. The only thing I can see stopping them is a court ruling, then that could turn their monopoly upside down. Because that’s exactly what the end game is for them, and they aren’t hiding it, at least not Sankey.
** Edited by Stech at 10/8/2024, 11:50:11 AM
(In response to this post by MrBayAreaHokie)
1y
...just a legitimately evil person. Cares about nothing but money and power, just absolute garbage. I genuinely root for his personal downfall.
(In response to this post by Stech)
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Stech
1y
(In response to this post by Gobbler-100)
1y
The SEC & B1G already have their organizations and their plans, and this scheme will only get in the way.
The final rounds of expansion will occur in 2027 (pending ESPN/ACC deal) then in 2031 when The Big XII contract renews. All of the most valuable assets will be housed in the P2 stables. The revenue gap will become massive.
These consolidation proposals may be Hail Mary efforts to derail the P2 mission. I can understand why the non-P2 schools want to buy-in. Each one sees itself as being able to play their way in to Tier 1, because they know they are better than: (Vandy, Northwestern, Illinois, Miss St, etc.) choose a couple. Well... maybe.
The P2 will never allow one of their schools to be demoted from where they now reside. Their media partners will not allow it either.
If The ACC, Big XII, and G5 want this kind arrangement it will need to be in place before The ACC and Big XII are poached again. And the private equity risk will be undertaken without the participation and weight of the P2.
Best course of action: Get invited to a P2 conference.
(In response to this post by Stech)
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Truthahn
1y
They actually get less per team from the CFP than the SEC right now, and they will have fewer teams in the CFP most years (currently 3 to 5). I think the push to get 4 P2 teams each is from the B10, not the SEC, who will get 4 without even trying. Even with an even number in the CFP, the B10 is behind, since the B10 has more members than the SEC.
I could see the B10 cutting a couple of teams loose eventually. If they do add Clemson and FSU, they will be up to 20 teams, while the SEC is only at 16. Notre Dame is unlikely to save them. The SEC will probably allow ND into the CFP easily without being in a conference, like they are now, just to frustrate the B10, and ND won't ever join the B10.
The B10 is in the same boat as us, I think, but just a few years behind. Some network will eventually come along and offer billions to the SEC to raid the B10. What is to stop Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State and USC from jumping for a huge paycheck then?
(In response to this post by 33laszlo99)
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Stech
1y
ND has said for decades that if they can’t get to top tier championship game, that’s when they will likely join a conference. So as things stand today, I agree with you, but the only constant is change and people pursuing more money!
PS Yes I think there is too much money to be had for the P2 to do anything else, but break off.
(In response to this post by Truthahn)
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Truthahn
1y
They don't want ND joining the B10, just like the B10 and the SEC don't want ND joining the ACC.
I think the SEC will help ND be a part of the breakaway as an independent, should it happen. In the meanwhile, the SEC will make sure ND is included reasonably well enough to keep ND happy. They are basically doing that now.
But I do think that some media partner will eventually throw a huge pile of money at Michigan, Ohio State, USC, PSU and maybe one or two more, to join the SEC. That may be the point where ND decides to join up, too, and give up independence, because that combo will eclipse everyone by a mile moneywise.
(In response to this post by Stech)
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Stech
1y
I don’t think the SEC wants to keep ND Indy, and with all their successful schools, they could care less if ND goes to the B1G. The idea is the two work together for one big media deal for the P2 with multiple networks in the future. They want ND in that one big media deal for both. It’s about making the most money possible, and a huge part of that is to schools in the P2 only playing P2 schools, because that’s where the money is, they want to be NFL Jr. They aren’t fighting each other anymore, they are both reaching for the most money possible and are doing it together.
(In response to this post by Truthahn)
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Truthahn
1y
If I were them, I would just keep on course. The SEC has the biggest gravitational pull, and could eventually suck in the top third of the B10, plus Notre Dame. Why share with the whole B10 when they could just take their best teams and money, too? I would expect the top teams in the B10 to feel the same way.
I'd also pretend to go along with the B10 for a while, just like the B10 did with the PAC.
(In response to this post by Stech)
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Stech
1y
biggest markets by far, but they care more because of it. I don’t see why they would ever want to go away from what made them great in the first place. You are more describing the B1G than the SEC with this spread out philosophy.
(In response to this post by Truthahn)
1y
plan. Swarbrick is a big player on this one and it protects us. The SEC and Big would be crazy to agree to this deal.
** Edited by goldendomer at 10/9/2024, 11:42:45 AM
(In response to this post by Stech)
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Stech
1y
already said he didn’t like it.
(In response to this post by goldendomer)
1y
The reason The SEC teams get more is because they are rewarded for having more Natty's. Same reason The ACC teams get more than Big XIIs.
The B1G is a media revenue monster. They have a different approach than The SEC. The SEC and ESPN earn their TV viewers by having so many brand-on-brand matchups in their concentrated footprint. This model will (hopefully) work even better when streaming finally catches fire.
The B1G has fewer great teams, but the schools are huge and so are the alumni bases. They have a collection enormous market populations and they have three OTA media partners. Their TV ratings are great. And the advertisers pay premium rates to reach B1G viewers from NY Metro to LA and Seattle. As long as the advertisers and media companies are willing make it worthwhile, The B1G will continue to add appropriately qualified programs.
(In response to this post by Truthahn)
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Stech
1y
Schools that fit each of them’s different model for making money.
(In response to this post by 33laszlo99)
1y
(In response to this post by Stech)
1y
P2 has currently 34 schools, which would mean more than half their schools would not receive Tier 1 money and would fall behind the brands currently in their conference (got to think the criteria for determining Tier 1 schools would favor current P2 brands) with relegation being a pipe dream for more than half of the other P2 schools. Every year the brands maintain Tier 1 status, the more they gain money wise on the rest of their conference. The rest of the schools (non-P2) would receive more money than they are now receiving, but would have to give up any hope of competing for a football title as the money gap gets wider and wider each year. The P2 don't want equity, they would most likely combine into a super conference with their own media deal. Just my thoughts.
(In response to this post by MrBayAreaHokie)
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Stech
1y
they will come up their own formula for how you make money as a school. If you make the playoff you will get more, if you advance in the playoffs, you will get more, if you win the championship, you will get more. I see them doing something similar with basketball too.
Unless the courts come in and stop them, I just don’t see how they do anything, but break off.
(In response to this post by manassashoo)
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Truthahn
1y
Pay the following schools significantly more that what they are getting now, and it could work. They aren't married to Sankey or the P2. They want more money than everyone else.
Notre Dame
USC, PSU, Michigan, Ohio State
Alabama, Georgia, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, LSU, Florida, Tenn
Just keep add schools to that mix at lesser amounts until it reaches the "tipping point".
The MAG7 would all go for it. And Utah, BYU, Arizona, Boise, ASU, Ole Miss, Wisconsin, Washington, UCLA, and Oregon, etc.
(In response to this post by manassashoo)