Love reading all the speculation! But…
To oversimplify …I have a few hunches:
Various ESPN execs have major concerns about their personal employment futures…(heavy rumors of espn being in limbo with their ownership corp.)…look at past layoffs, etc.
So, to make a major decision that could result in them being cut from the team, ain’t gonna happen, until it has to. Would not be surprised if they’ve been told to shut up. ESPN isn’t in charge anymore…their ownership is. Various ACC teams are likely being ‘considered’ as part of an ACC sales package of THE ACC (in whole or otherwise.) But, with all the uncertainties of pending legal case outcomes, even the ownership of espn is in limbo as to what they can sell, and when.
ESPN will not say squat…because they’re no longer in control.
SEC may equal ESPN today, but it sure seems that the other known and still tbd (unknown today) media giants are on the move upwards…and espn isn’t. So, if I was the SEC…I would also be wondering what’s next.
I know the big 12 & espn piece just adds to the moving parts of this cluster blank.
A still publicly unknown new media participant will impact the entire puzzle. No one is going tell us, but it’s fun speculating, and maybe some of it will be the outcome…
18 Replies
1y
acc teams into the SEC (I suspect) to keep them in-house which heavily dilutes "remaining" teams. As a package (incl fsu/clem), I suppose a new media company would be interested,... but the Pac thought the same and there wouldn't be much time ....IF espn opts-out, it could be a quick unravelling....Currently, I don't think espn will opt-out...But you make some solid points about strong hands, Disney's potential mandate, etc...
(In response to this post by HOKIEGOBBLE)
1y
new conference of the Mag 7, or some variation of that emerges. You need 8 for a conference, and ESPN may just be behind such a move. They could give top teams a "raise" with the same amount of money. I don't think an 8 team conference has enough inventory, but if you look at the timelines of the contracts in place today, I see is as a real risk to the B12.
It's why I posted the rumors of UConn. If there is a shred of truth to those rumors, it is because the top teams of the ACC would be unavailable for the b12 to get IF ESPN walks.
** Edited by Big12 guy at 8/22/2024, 11:41:42 AM
(In response to this post by VT757to276)
H
HouClone
1y
There is strength in numbers. The Mag 7 + 1-3 would get a perception hit like the Big 12 did of # draft picks, # of overall revenue, # of tournament teams, # of CFP teams, etc.
Also, the Mag 7 + 1-3 would all cannibalize each other in football leading to more losses.
** Edited by HouClone at 8/22/2024, 4:09:39 PM
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
At that point I would prefer to be on a CBS, NBC, or even TNT.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
would be a great outcome. It would be a competitive league that restores regionality to the schedule. As a UVa fan when I look at our schedule this year and 4 of our 8 league games are against teams I could care less about (BC, Louisville, Pitt, SMU) - it becomes more and more difficult to motivate to carve off the time and energy to watch and attend games. A schedule that includes only MAG 7 + WVU + GT + one other would be significantly more appealing.
Would not bring in as much $ as B1G or SEC but would think it would be significant raise.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
the teams the network and presidents want, not what the fans want. I don't think UNC and a few others would trade a Duke for a WVU as an example. You would have to find a balance of academics and football money to get the presidents on board.
If Louisville, Pitt, Cuse, and others were left out, I'm not convinced that WVU would jump ship, nor am I convinced they would be invited. VT would have to tip their hat and leave all of the former Big East schools, except maybe Miami.
(In response to this post by Brother Griswold)
1y
would be fairly robust.
You're Welcome America
** Edited by mancunian at 8/22/2024, 2:45:18 PM
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
Mag 7:
Clemson, FSU, UNC, NCSU, Miami, UVA, VT
Next 3:
WVU, Duke, Pitt
Next 4 To get to 14 teams:
Louisville, Georgia Tech, Cincinnati, UConn
This would get you coverage in 10 states and overall be a solid collection of football and basketball schools.
If you were sentimental then you could also keep Wake and Syracuse for 16 teams. But that's a stretch.
(In response to this post by mancunian)
1y
would you think you would get more media money for that line up? Why in the world would FSU stick around for that conference?
All you did was add a few teams that the ACC already voted down, time, after time.
Honestly, you guys need to look outside your bubble.
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
1y
Upgrade in both football and basketball. And tries to keep things somewhat logical and on the same half of the country.
But I do agree that the best money option is to go beyond the current ACC footprint. But that requires either a significant raid of the B12 or a significant merger. I have a merger pipe dream but I don't ever expect it to happen.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
matter which conference you are in.
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
1y
You could easily group them by regions to have more local options if you wanted (example below). Would be much easier for travel for basketball and non-revs with more logical regional options. And it would be big enough (32 teams) to warrant multiple contracts and spread out the media coverage (and the risk so that all eggs are not in the same basket). Having ESPN and Amazon and someone else would be much more stable.
It's a pipe dream I know. But it is what I would want to see as the counter to the P2.
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
market is so ripe for a well capitalized disruptor
Face it, Disney is all suits who could even screw up the Star Wars franchise beyond belief. Do you see a lot of imagination in the Marvel movies? They are suits who milk their fat salaries and pray for another year of their personal gravy train.
They are ripe for annihilation.
(In response to this post by HOKIEGOBBLE)
M
Marooned
1y
They’re making major inroads in sports programming.
(In response to this post by HOKIEGOBBLE)
1y
arena, just a matter of time !
(In response to this post by Marooned)
1y
possible bankruptcy because of their negotiations with Comcast, their 3rd largest distributer. I found a few things interesting in the read. How much they were paying MLB teams for the rights to broadcast their games. They do not have all of the MLB teams, as that league negotiates their rights by club, not by the league. The Royals receive $39M per year, but that is on the low end. Minnesota receives over $80M a year. A pretty big spread for two small market clubs.
They broadcast NBA and NHL games as well. but what I found most interesting, is that Amazon has quietly taken a stake in the network, and that is what tipped the scale from impending bankruptcy. They also settled with Comcast when Amazon stepped in.
Amazon has a key interest in a linier cable channel who's primary business model is to broadcast live sports. Interesting, indeed. Bally does not have the rights to any football content that I know of, but if they now have deep pockets because of Amazon, they just might be a "new" player in the college media rights business moving forward.
(In response to this post by HOKIEGOBBLE)
twin cities has a population of over 3 million, bigger than most think
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
1y
media money is much larger than that, but I have no idea what the viewership numbers are. Still, they are both considered small market teams, I haven't done the research on the LA, NY, or Chicago numbers, but I would find the comparisons interesting. Both the Royals and Twins are in a heated pennant race this year. I wonder if that has a direct effect on next years numbers.
Baseball is a league with uneven media money distribution. The NFL distributes their money evenly. Which is a better model? KC, one of the smallest markets, clearly behind on the media revenue front for decades, could get to the World Series AGAIN. The NY Jets, clearly in a larger market than KC, will not even compete with the Chiefs this year. It seems there can be parity no matter the media revenue distribution system imposed.
(In response to this post by MrBayAreaHokie)