Are we seeing an SDSU moment with FSU? Will they go through all of this and
not get an invite until the BIG or SEC contract runs out?
Honestly, I've only skimmed the legalities, so this is a typical whiskey moment, but what if FSU wins, and has nowhere to go? I'm not convinced that FOX or ESPN is willing to turn the ACC upside down for FSU. Whichever network gives wind under FSU's sails, will be a villain to the rest of college football.
While I think FSU, along with many in the ACC, deserve a competitive contract that is competitive with the BIG or SEC, I'm not at all convinced that FSU is up there with Texas, OU, or USC. Those brands were worth the risk. Help an outsider - is FSU worth the risk?
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The tea leaves on FSU.
I've been trying to read the tea leaves on FSU for a while. Here's what I've got. The two things that might be contradictory, so just humor me in this if you can.
1. FSU is going to the Big Ten. This is where they've been angling to go all along. I think they like to differentiate themselves from the SEC schools. And the SEC isn't exactly in love with the Noles. I think this snub for the CFP just makes choosing the Big Ten over the SEC even more satisfying to the Noles. I also think they would like to increase the academic profile of the school, and they think being in the Big Ten will be better for that somehow. From the B1G's perspective, demographics are not their friend. So a move to the West Coast (USC) and the Deep South (FSU) help tremendously with this. I also think FSU would prefer to play a national schedule rather than a regional one.
2. The reason that we can wonder if FSU even has a home, is because the desired landing spots for the Noles (the SEC or the B1G) will show NOTHING of interest publicly, to avoid the appearance of impropriety (tampering, anti-trust related stuff, etc.). Heck, the B1G was super careful about this with USC and their other Pac-12 targets, and that conference was up against the expiration of a TV contract. So I'd imagine the B1G would be even MORE prudent with a target which has over a decade left on its TV contract. That being said, I'd be shocked if there weren't back channel approval of a Big Ten invite for FSU.
** Edited by Maroon Baboon at 12/23/2023, 11:41:34 AM
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Stech
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and even if it is, they are close to getting in the AAU.
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Marooned
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You can stop laughing now.
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WarHog38
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I know the SEC has that attribute in their ESPN contract and I would about bet the bank that the B1G has that same opportunity with FOX. That is like I say, the streamlining of college football into two conferences of big name games all day long. That makes those two conferences immune to the issues that hinder those other less popular conferences. I am being flippant, but that is exactly how ESPN & FOX view college sports. You can see the blatant preferential treatment they give the SEC & B1G at every opportunity they get.
I think there is little doubt that the B1G would quicklyu snap up FSU. The question is will the SEC move to prevent that. The B1G wanted Oregon & Washington when neither are the recruiting hotbed of Florida. FSU has spent a lot of money with attorneys to now throw down the gauntlet. Whining back to the ACC would mean never squawking again. FSU could not bear being in that position. I don't want FSU in the SEC. I have seen enough from afar with them over the years.
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Marooned
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They probably are interested in F$U, but I don’t think they’d give them a full share up front. I doubt the SEC wants them, because it would be tough to argue against Clemson later if they took them. When you only have two options and one isn’t interested, your hand has basically been dealt.
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hokieZ71
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The mention by FSU of the 2027 date with ESPN having a unilateral option on the ACC’s contract is key to me. This is about FSU showing their tail feathers to the SEC and B1G publicly for 2027-2028. And it’s done in order to escape an early exit penalty at that time. I doubt the SEC nor the B1G want to add anybody at this point. But in 4 years, they’ll be getting closer to the next round of contract negotiations and we will have years of playoff data to drive future decisions. Gonna get wild in 4 years.
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HOO86
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It's as if FSU think there will be a bidding war for their services once free of the ACC. I'm not so sure they will get that bidding war. The Big Ten has consistently only invited AAU members, and if they want into the state of Florida, then USF and Miami are AAU, not FSU.
Does the SEC want them? The SEC is at the Whim of ESPN like the ACC is. So ESPN would have to be orchestrating this. But, ESPN just orchestrated keeping FSU out of the Playoff, so they're pushing FSU into the SEC? Makes no sense.
They are behaving in some ways like Larry Scott is their consultant. I hope for their sake he isn't.
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HOO86
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Notre Dame is as well now.
Link:
link
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daveinop
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up in the B12. For the board, I'm not at all advocating for that, nor do I think it will happen - but the bigger point is that there are some out there that do not think they will get an invite until the the BIG and SEC contracts come up again.
I have alway said - be very careful what you ask for, you just may get it.
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immediately leave the ACC? I ask because I thought FSU's goal of the lawsuit is for the courts to rule that FSU can leave the ACC at some date prior to June 30, 2036. Not the date when the verdict is read and all appeals have ran their course. If so, then that gives FSU the flexibility to decide when is the exit date and to make sure it complies with the conference bylaws on how much notification needs to be given of said exit date.
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HOO86
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This action is torching their bridge to the ACC. Even if they could legally hang around, it's not something even FSU would want to do.
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Marooned
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Then yes, I could see them sticking around in a very acrimonious environment. That’s pretty much what UT and OU just went through with the B12. As it turns out, UT securing a spot in the playoffs for the conference will wind up helping the B12’s bottom line this year. Plus there’s still NCAA tournament berths that may get secured.
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HOO86
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They are staying until the term of GOR they signed expires honoring the contract. That's different than what FSU is trying to accomplish.
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HOO86
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Seems a bit of stupidity to do so, but they could.
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Marooned
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How marketable they would be without their media rights initially remains to be seen. Hopefully we’ll get to find that out.
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So paying the $572 million buyout to leave isn't really an option.
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... to 2027, and it will go to 2036 only if ESPN choses to extend the contract?
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daveinop
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claim amongst all of the hyperbole in the filing. But do I think it's possible? Sure.
My guess is a possible end of the GOR in 2027 is something VT, UVA, UNC, NCSU, Clemson, and Miami have all contemplated along with FSU. They were all looking at the paperwork at the same time last spring. And VT's leadership has very recently put an intense focus on success in football for the next 2 years; almost like it's make or break for its football future.
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HOO86
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So I think it is a foregone conclusion that ESPN will extend it. It's favorable because it is long term, and they have the ACC for a below market rate.
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Marooned
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Not disagreeing with you; but the point is not related to when the GOR ends, only the magnitude of the obligation.
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HOO86
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They honored the dates of the contract to avoid paying the penalty to terminate it early. The end result is the same.
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course which could add on 1-2 years depending on how quickly the courts want to move on the issue for both lawsuits.
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They want the declared date of intent to leave be August 14, 2023. So they want to leave August 15, 2024.
And they've definitely had talks with another conference or they wouldn't feel confident doing this.
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Marooned
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The ACC should be demanding that F$U and their representatives preserve their phone records, emails, credit card receipts, texts, etc., as well as those of B1G officials and possible intermediaries.
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There is going to be a LOT of paper being shuffled around both sides and ESPN.
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HOO86
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So there is a penalty to do that in dollars. Like all if it, it will be negotiated at settlement. But the bill goes up.
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dance partner.
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HOO86
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With the B1G, no dice. But with the SEC, we could potentially enter a 3 way negotiation with FSU and ESPN where the ACC let's FSU out at reduced amount in exchange for ESPN giving the ACC a satisfactory BUMP for the remainder of the GOR and exercises the continuation in 2027 to 2036. ESPN would have to be involved with FSU to the SEC in any way.
For this reason, I think it's the B1G.
** Edited by HOO86 at 12/23/2023, 12:18:52 AM
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with ESPN. I think most people would draw the conclusion that ESPN doesn't plan to exercise the option in 2027. Also, it isn't unreasonable to think that ESPN would have preferred to keep the ACC in the dark on this future decision for as long as possible to reduce the risk of the ACC and/or any of its members developing any resentment in the remaining time. Now that the cat is out of the bag, the ACC and/or its members may not be open to any requests/suggestions ESPN regarding schedule preferences. Also, the ACC may be more open with their shopping around to try to find a new partner for the ACCN since it doesn't want to make the same mistake the Pac-12 made by going at it alone. Since this seems to be the season to be suing someone, I guess the ACC could even bring a lawsuit (or two) against ESPN.
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Marooned
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Now, how real and detailed that offer is remains to be seen.
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been talk of an ACC B12 merger, or an ACC B12 alliance (whatever that is), but those things never work out. It's just talk.
However, what about rebranding the ACCN into a college sports network, and add the B12 content. It is then that the scheduling between the ACC and B12 can actually bring viewers, and the carriage amounts from all of the states the B12 is in just might be enough to bring added value, rather than a dilution.
A network like that - with an occasional G5 game, would get the attention of both Fox, ESPN, and a third party streamer like Amazon or Apple that would like a linier TV station.
So what if Amazon or Apple wants a linier sports channel, and makes it worth more money for the ACC and other schools that participate?
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interesting part is the implications associated with each name particularly since the SEC could impact the ACC's relationship with ESPN.
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HOO86
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All of the money from Bowls, NCAA Basketball, and TV goes to the ACC for distribution. At some point the money goes into escrow. Maryland wasn't paid for 2 years.
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ways to screw over FSU's teams which would ultimately impact how much money ends up in escrow. The ACC Screw Job could end up becoming more infamous than the Montreal Screw Job (WWE reference).
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HOO86
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They have to do so for the amount of time of notice, but not much longer.
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ACC bylaws say you're ineligible to vote on anything if you have an intention to leave.
Their position in the ACC is as an observer at best right now.
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