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Stech OP
Dec 13, 2023 at 01:46 PM ET
When did expansion stop being about football? I missed that if it happened.
VT is the football prize in the state of Virginia in ratings and records for 3 decades, and NC State has won 3 in a row, in spite of the regular Mac hype at the beginning of each year. Now basketball is the reverse, but basketball money at least right now, is going to the NCAA. If the basketball money goes the way of football, the best thing would be to take all 4 teams, and get all the money. (Somewhat sarcastic question in case you missed that) PS Said this below in another thread, but this is way too important to be missed. ** Edited by Stech at 12/13/2023, 5:52:12 PM

40 Replies

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VTCALS72
When the expanders get/got all the football teams they think they need
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Stech OP
Show me the evidence of that please.
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VTCALS72
Oh come on, there is no "evidence" on this either way
Well, I guess there is one bit, UNC and UVA being put out there as the 2 plums in the ACC. That sure isn't for just football.
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Stech OP
No evidence is the come on, where are you getting the basketball schools
are the plums? Some people here are saying that, but does it make it true? I just want to understand why you are saying that.
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VTCALS72
Ok, you asked why I am saying that. So, you asked for my opinion.
I'll try to do it in bullets -There is already a big picture way football will be marketed and totally run by the ones who are pouring in the advertising $$$ now. Implementation of that big picture is what we are seeing - There are only about 30 teams each in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. If that is the sweet spot number for national marketing, and I believe it is, then the next step is to complete this phase of the P2 and flush everybody else. That will leave about 40-42 teams in the P2. -Pretty much all of the TV slots and TV$$$ will dry up for everyone not in the P2. -After that settles it is my opinion that the advertisers/media will try to ditch those 2 conferences and have "their 30" each individually contract with them like ND does now. - That "30" has already been picked out and VT is one that is not in the 30. - The advertisers and media do not appear to see sufficient value in the old regional college sports, rivalries etc and rather show more Ohio St vs Mich in more places to replace the regional games like the VT/UVA, UNC/NCSU type ones. - Advertisers and media do want to show the OSU/PSU type games on their networks in the NOVA, VA and NC areas. If they initially need a VT or UVA to do that, then they will take one or both. at least initially. - Outside of getting that specific market, there has been nothing to suggest any of VT, UVA or NCSU are or can become one of those national market 30.
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Stech OP
It’s your opinion, I respect you for saying that. Thanks!
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VTCALS72
That is what you asked for :-)
Now give me yours, what is there out there that the P2 would target VT for? I don't think we have screwed up anything but I do think we are one of many expendable teams.
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Stech OP
I don’t think th ACC GOR can’t be broken any time soon without the majority
leaving. (Even that is very risky financially) So either the Mag 7+1 leave together sooner rather than later, or in about 10-12 years, a smaller group possibly leaves then, based mainly on who is doing better at the time. Consequently, an enormous amount can change before then, but Virginia Tech needs to keep getting better, especially in football. As Mark Felt (Deep Throat) said, follow the money, and the GOR has a huge grasp on everyone in the Conference except Notre Dame, and they despise so far, being in a conference. So what in your opinion am I missing, if anything?
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HokiesACC2004
I agree with this
reestuart reestuart
Evidently, VT isn't that big of prize for whatever reason. Partly due
to quality falling off. Partly due to GOR. Who knows what else. I can't imagine VT is even on the Big Ten's radar. They're in Maryland/DC already. SEC could be a possibility, but at the same time, neither VT or UVa has ever been a serious expansion target for either of those conferences. Any expansion will be based on branding anyway, IMO. UNC, FSU, and ND are likely the biggest "brands" not already in the Big Ten or SEC. ** Edited by reestuart at 12/13/2023, 4:23:17 PM
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jesuisvtguy
100% it is UNC, FSU and ND...
Tier 1: ND, FSU, UNC (will not be left behind) Tier 2: VT, Clemson, Miami, NCSU, UVA, Colorado, Arizona (could be left behind) Tier 3: ASU, BYU, OKSU, Kansas, Duke, K State, WVU, Louisville, Pitt, California, Stanford (likely left behind) Tier 4: WF, BC, Syracuse, Washington State, Oregon State, Iowa State, TCU, Houston, Baylor, Texas Tech (not looking good) The P2 is not going to rush to grab any Tier 2 teams unless they think they will lose the opportunity at a Tier 1. What concerns me the most is UNC is a Tier 1 property, and UVA and UNC may be perceived as a better "pair". ** Edited by jesuisvtguy at 12/13/2023, 7:21:49 PM
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Stech OP
Right now the money is in football ratings!! USC IMHO wanted UCLA , so B1G
took them too. The B1G focuses more about the Academic ratings than the SEC. The SEC wants ratings and full stadiums whether the program is up or down at the time. Don’t underestimate that. I still don’t think teams in the ACC will leave in the near future without the majority leaving, a small amount leaving just doesn’t make financial sense with the GOR. PS A Pay for Play Division IMHO throws all the cards up into the air and could cause a reset of many things, thus the BIG BANG!!!
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tarheelblue
This reminds me of fivethirtyeight.com analysis of B1G expansion candidates
(Note: this was done prior to Oregon and Washington going to the B1G.) Tier 1: Notre Dame Tier 2: North Carolina, Oregon, Florida State, Washington Tier 3: Clemson, Utah, Miami, Stanford, Cal Tier 4: Virginia, Arizona State, Duke, Missouri, Pitt, Colorado, Oklahoma State, Arizona, TCU, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Kansas, West Virginia Tier 5: Baylor, NC State, Houston, Iowa State, Louisville, Texas Tech, Washington State, Cincinnati, UConn, Kansas State, Oregon State, Boston College, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, SMU, Rice ** Edited by tarheelblue at 12/13/2023, 7:33:28 PM
reestuart reestuart
That seems fair, IMO.
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Brother Griswold
This is totally wrong
B1G thought UNC / UVA / GT would come along with UMD when they were poached. None of those teams were interested at the time.
reestuart reestuart
I don't remember that at all. They wanted DC and NYC. They certainly
didn't need UVa and MD. I guess it's possible that they wanted one over the other, but no way they wanted both. The expansion was market based then. They didn't/don't need two in the same market.
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Brother Griswold
They wanted UMD / UNC / UVa / GT
Delany knew UMD was in deep trouble financially and exploited that in order to get them to switch. He figured that once UMD committed to B1G he could scare / strongarm UVa / UNC who politely told him no. GT was desired at the time to make it an even number and get into Atlanta. Remember that the financial disparity at the time between ACC and B1G wasn’t that large. UNC and UVa have never really “wanted” to leave ACC - as long as the $ divide wasn’t too large. For what it’s worth - VT I was told was very instrumental in helping to rally all of the troops and help the league stay together. Rutgers was only added because none of the other ACC schools they wanted would leave and they had to get an even number. This all comes from a very high level donor at UMD that was involved in the process. Delany was very focused on the academic image side of the equation and coveted UNC and UVa. A lot has changed since then. Delany no longer commish and they now have the 4 Pac schools.
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2hhoop3
Your MD buddy is full of it.........
it was always MD because of little Wally Loh and their awful financial status. Rutgers was the convenient and 1 for TV sets in NY. UNC, UVA and GT were not on the table the first time around. Your MD donor friend is shoveling you manure on several fronts.
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Brother Griswold
Hah - I said that they exploited UMDs financial status in my post
I am telling you exactly how it went down - you can choose to believe what you want. Rutgers was a plan B add when the other schools said no. At the time B1G thought real prize was UNC / UVa combo and were exploiting UMD to try and make it happen. A lot has changed since then. No idea if any of this will hold true next time around.
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2hhoop3
No you're....
telling me the load of BS your MD buddy told you. You can believe what you wish as well but, your contention, or should I say your buddy's, that that is how it went down is dead wrong. There was no exploitation of MD to get at UNC/UVA because that is not how the game is played and the question never gets asked until the answer is known. Jim Delaney is too smart to ever go down that path without already knowing he would get an affirmative response. Your buddy and, it appears you now too, have been misled.
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Brother Griswold
So exactly how did it go down?
Why was Rutgers chosen? Please don’t say for the cable boxes in NYC area. This wasn’t a buddy - it was a colleague and he was a top donor, parking spot next to Kevin Plank, multiple seats on floor at Comcast Center type of guy. He found out about it ~48 hours or so before it went down and told me what was happening. The B1G was nervous about PSU (they were very upset about they were treated by the league during the Sandusky scandal) and wanted to destabilize the ACC. At the time the revenue gap wasn’t that wide. UVA and UNC were not interested and said no. This where we are today. I’m not so sure why this upsets you so badly. Do you have inside information that is different? I’d like to hear it if so.
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2hhoop3
I have information.....
both public and from insiders and one confirms the other. It was Maryland first because (1)Wally Loh wanted the B1G, (2)MD was a shambles financially and (3) the TV market of DC/MD was the first piece to filling in the NE donut of the B1G TV footprint. It was Rutgers second because (1)they were also weak financially and (2) they filled the northern part of the NE donut of the B1G TV footprint. With MD and Rutgers in addition to PSU they filled the NE corridor from DC to NY and at the time the only game on the B1G mind was the upcoming renegotiation of the media deal. Giving PSU neighborhood partners was an added benefit but, it was not about smoothing any hurt feelings at PSU over the Sandusky matter. I am not doubting your colleague was given some story about UNC/UVA. Loh fed a lot of MD people BS to try and gain their support for the move as most were strongly against it. Fact is there was no time for the communication asserted to have taken place with UNC/UVA/GT in context of getting the deal done and maintaining the secrecy until the deal was done. If you check you will find the MD deal was approved by the board on a Monday and Rutgers followed suit the next day. Internally, Swofford tried to get Loh to slow down and see if there was an alternative but, the deal was done in Loh's mind. From a public perspective, you can Google and read a variety of interviews from that time on ESPN and various other publications through Delany's retirement perspective in the Athletic(2020 I think if memory serves). They confirm what I was told by people actually close enough to know and have shared with you above. None of that ever hinted at a play for UNC/UVA/GT. I think you will find if you check with your colleague that Duke, considered by some Maryland fans as their primary basketball rival was also thrown in those stories to gain acceptance from the Maryland fan base. It bothers me not that Maryland left but, rather how they left. The stories, like the one you were told, were fantasy concocted to soften the opposition to the move within the Maryland fan base.
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Brother Griswold
We agree that there was never an official
Invitation or anything close to that to UVa / UNC. You are correct that the question doesn’t get officially asked unless you know the answer. Delany’s vision was to get the B1G into the Mid-Atlantic / Southeast. At the time the B1G was still subscribing to the “contiguous states” BS. My contact from UMD didn’t even know until 48 hours before me it was announced and at that point it was a done deal. Many folks there are still pissed about the way the whole thing went down. Where I think we disagree is overtures to UVa / UNC were made - I have heard from others that would know (at UVa) that they were. Delany was surprised at how quickly UNC / UVa said thanks but no thanks. At the time folks at both schools thought the projections that the B1G were making with regard to future revenue from B1G network and future TV deals were pie in the sky BS and that the ACC would be able to stay within close distance. Turns out that was wrong but I’m not sure anyone ever conceived that the PAC schools (and associated revenue bumps associated with taking two Crown Jewels) were even a consideration. Without the UT / OU to SEC and USC / UCLA to B1G dynamic the revenues at all of these leagues would be much more even. The ACC missed the boat when they had a chance to be proactive poaching other leagues crowns. I am convinced (this is my conjecture with no real knowledge) that the ACC could have had PSU not that long ago (during / just after Sandusky mess) if we’d been aggressive. If that had happened everything would be playing out much differently today. Not taking PSU in the early 1990s was the leagues biggest mistake.
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2hhoop3
We will just.....
have to disagree on whether any real overtures were made. You have your sources which you believe and I have mine which I believe. I will say though that if made, the swiftness of the rejections you allude to would call into question how serious either side may have been and clearly shows Delany overplayed his hand. Delany did not have a track record of miscalculation or overplaying his hand, quite the opposite. I cannot speak to your conjecture on PSU with any info. I am skeptical that even if aggressive the ACC would have succeeded. The time for that likely came and went in the early 1990s and the dual addition of PSU and FSU could have been a game changer but, I suspect basketball and the Tobacco Road mafia was much happier in their little cocoon.
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Brother Griswold
Your first paragraph nailed it
UVa & UNC were not interested at all at the time and were not happy with the B1G poaching a charter member. The attitude at the time was - we don't need your $, we are just fine thank you. I don't have time to look but the revenues at the time between the leagues were much closer and both schools scoffed that they would basically blow up a conference that they founded (I know UVa came in months after the league started) over such a small amount of $. Neither school truly believed the projections they were being shown for future revenues showing such a large disparity or they may have taken the conversation more seriously. Delany was stunned that the schools were not more interested - he thought poaching UMD would destabilize the league. The other league members were very upset with UMD and couldn't believe they didn't ask for help with their issues from the ACC before making such a drastic decision.
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2hhoop3
Were taking MD......
to destabilize the ACC to have happened it would have been a fortunate by product, no more, no less. The media deal was the top priority and Maryland was always #1 and Rutgers #2. The timeline and Delany's comments have confirmed that publicly. Like I told you the UNC/UVA stuff was most likely just a story to secure Maryland fan buy in or at least no vocal opposition. IF, and it's a big IF, there were any overtures made to either UNC or UVA, it was along the lines of while we are at it let's throw this against the wall to see if it will stick. It was either a complete fantasy or a wing and a prayer versus a fully developed approach and I lean to fantasy based on the publicly available timeline of how the deal went down and Delany's comments both at the time and subsequently. He was not a leader that did things either on a wing and a prayer and absent a detailed plan with a high probability of success. We will just have to agree to disagree.
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Stech OP
Who are you getting this from?
reestuart reestuart
Getting what?
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Stech OP
Your statement that VT evidently isn’t a prize?
reestuart reestuart
well, it's not. It's not like VT is chopped liver, but neither the SEC
or Big Ten is beating down the door. There were message board rumors that the SEC may have been interested way back when, but how about now? I think VT is perfectly safe if things implode, though.
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Big12 guy
Easy, this is a VT board. Other boards however, are talking about
VT being in the B12 if the ACC falls apart. The P2, and the networks, have their football content. could a few more teams in those conferences make it a bit better? Sure they can, but no one is talking about an Ohio state/USC/Michigan - VT game as moving the needle. Nor are they talking about Texas/OU/Bama/Georgia game moving the needle. The teams that come up are Clemson, FSU, and Miami. This is the football needle I'm talking about, not markets or basketball.
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EDGEMAN
The B12 would be the last option.
Why increase the travel cost 300% if you're receiving less money. Would feel different if we were located in Texas, but joining a conference with a center that's 1500 miles away is just not smart.
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Big12 guy
I agree with this, but we don't make the call, the networks do.
Pylons Pylons
It didn't stop
Which recent addition to the B1G or SEC is VT a bigger "football prize" than? We all love remembering the glory days, but the last decade+ has been pretty uninspiring. And basketball money does flow through to the conferences. It doesn't all just stop at the NCAA because they run the tourney.
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Stech OP
NCAA 💵 is spread amongst all divisions, it pales in comparison to 🏈 💵,
and Virginia Tech’s football ratings even while being down have been good to very good depending on who we are playing. Those are some really important facts some are missing below. Some people just tend to seek the negative narrative without seeing both strengths and weaknesses, which is actually the realistic situation.
Pylons Pylons
You asked when expansion stopped being about football
and then dodged my question about that and changed the subject. There's not really any evidence that expansion is not about football. And, yes, basketball money is less than football, but you made it sound like the NCAA just tosses it all in their vault without passing any along to member institutions.
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Stech OP
It was a sarcastic question, sorry you missed that.
Pylons Pylons
Lol. Yet you responded to others seriously.
Keep making it up as you go.
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Stech OP
Nope it was sarcasm, they got it and you didn’t, but you do know how to
deflect what you are doing to the person you are trying to constantly bring down. It’s time to stop wasting my time with your stalking style post, to bring not just me, but others down. Have a nice life doing that, I guess it makes you feel better about yourself, I don’t know, but your act is very old. I tried to be nice to you and even complimented you on some things, but you just keep bringing everything into the gutter. I hope you use your intelligence for something else besides doing that, but I have come to believe that’s not possible, so I am done trying to have an adult conversation with you, like I do with many of the others that post on TSL.
Pylons Pylons
edited: 😄🙄😄
** Edited by Pylons at 12/14/2023, 3:32:13 AM