About the dilution... Oregon and UW will receive LESS THAN full shares
until the B10 media deal is renegotiated in 2030, but will receive $30 million a year until then, with a $1 million step up each year in the interim. They are making MORE than they would have in the Pac12, so this phase-in is basically a discounting mechanism to adjust for the fact that UO and UW didn't bring enough annual margin as the average of the incumbent teams whereas USC and UCLA obviously brought more.
38 Replies
V
VTCALS72
2y
The PAC was easy pickings as their deal was up. If VT and the ACC had not signed the new deal with the GOR and our contract had been up, the ACC would have already been picked apart.
As things changes we all have to re arrange our thinking based on what has happened. So right now it seems the Big should not be in any hurry to do more until 2030. It seems they took the last 2 with partial payouts as a defensive move when those schools were not under some form of GOR.
And, if they decide not to challenge the SEC on the east coast, they may be through for longer than that.
(In response to this post by TDVick)
2y
From what I've heard, Washington said they had to have at least $40 million to compensate for all the extra travel expenses. They get $40M/year for the first 2 years in the B1G, and then each year they get an incremental increase until they get a full share in 2030.
** Edited by tarheelblue at 8/6/2023, 7:36:53 PM
(In response to this post by TDVick)
2y
gotten by staying in the Pac12? Even if you add travel costs?
Basically, the ACC situation is like the Pac12 where Clemson and FSU are USC and UCLA and VT,UVA and NCSU are like UW and UO, except that these departees have to compensate the holdover schools for their vote?
Then the question is, how likely and at what cost can you pick off votes from the remnant teams? The ACC is done by 2036. This is a lot closer to being busted up in the next couple of years than people think.
(In response to this post by tarheelblue)
2y
2 years.
If we ever get an invite to the B10 or SEC we will be in the same boat, not unlike the way we got a less than equal share in the Big East in the beginning. This bodes well for us getting an invite but it will probably require a haircut versus the new league's baseline package. HOWEVER, it will like be BETTER than what we would have gotten by staying in the ACC.
By this logic, it seems quite possible that the ACC will be disbanded by the fleeing members having to compensate the remaining teams. Two scenarios can achieve this, 1) the 7 or 8 teams looking to bail can compensate a few teams that won't be acquired and get the vote done. I won't take ALL of the remaining teams to be compensated, just the first ones to sign on, 2) more likely, the ones that will have B12 spots, will be the easier ones to compensate to vote to disband. Since the B12 pays pretty much the same as the ACC it shouldn't take that much additional compensation to get UL, Pitt, etc. to vote to disband. For those schools it is basically a coin-toss to leave and some extra money should get it done.
It will just take a bit of money to grease the wheels and overcome the friction created by the GoR.
** Edited by TDVick at 8/6/2023, 5:46:25 PM
(In response to this post by TDVick)
M
Mercury
2y
Unc state uva and vt are sorta a small group thst 1) like to keep the acc together but also want to make sure they are together . Its very tight . This is preventing sec and big 10 fo pick and chose. Also both states govenors have explcitly said that one doesnt go without the other. States are more powerful than the networks
So the big 10 putting out these fake bots to say who is gone or otjers mot part of if. You can expect runors that one or 2 are ready to go to raise rumors of mis trust
We dont know whats going on . But its mot fsu and clemson its these 4 and where they go and finality of the acc.
(In response to this post by TDVick)
2y
all over the place and rivalries will get shelved. Certain schools are worth much more than others. The lack of understanding of this point was the catalyst for all these moves. First Texas tried to milk some extra money from the Longhorn Network for their brand, then people realized that the LA market was the bulk of the value in the Pac12. Everyone would have been better off letting the linchpin teams make additional money.
I had assumed that the 4 schools you mentioned were looking to get out the door, but maybe they were trying to placate Clemson and FSU. For what you suggest to actually happen, there will probably be some unequal payouts.
** Edited by TDVick at 8/7/2023, 11:46:25 AM
(In response to this post by Mercury)
2y
(In response to this post by TDVick)
T
Telionis
2y
** Edited by Telionis at 8/6/2023, 8:27:05 PM
(In response to this post by wwhokie1)
2y
they might be the ones to say to hell with you guys, and vote to leave. It will be the ones hoping for an invite, that don't get one, that will be left out in the cold.
(In response to this post by TDVick)
2y
before. The teams without an SEC or B10 spot will have to hold together as a faction and that is very unrealistic. Especially since some teams will have a B12 invite and won't require much additional compensation to vote.
It would behoove the non B10/SEC teams to extract some cash for turning out the lights.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
2y
Can't see BC, Cuse, Wake and Dook ever voting to disband. Maybe a couple more (Pitt and Loserville?).
(In response to this post by hokieZ71)
2y
UNC, Clemson, then Miami and then UVA, VT and NCSU. The last 3 or four might need a phase-in to get a full share like we saw with Washington. My guess it the Magificent 7 (gag) can find a spot. It might not be the full SEC/B10 payout but even so, it would be better than the payment they'd get by staying in the ACC. I still think Duke might get picked up. You have ND + other 7 = 8. That's not counting Duke. Then you have Pitt, UL, Syr and GT that might have a B12 spot, which is close to the same as the ACC. If Clemson and FSU really want out, they could probably pay $10 million a year or so of that extra money they will be getting to compensate the other schools for their vote. They'd make $40 million more in another conference.
Seeing Washington get scooped up by the B10 makes me think these spots can be found. I wouldn't be surprised if Duke and even GT get a spot in the B10. Duke rakes in Bball money and GT isn't that much more undesirable than UW. It shouldn't be that difficult (or expensive) to horse trade your way to 11 or 12 votes.
(In response to this post by LonghornHokie)
H
hokieZ71
2y
But those arent the 11 we’d need
(In response to this post by LonghornHokie)
2y
(In response to this post by TDVick)
2y
that is either 11/14 or 12/15. It the 7 teams plus ND have spots or better deals then they only need to flip 3 or 4 votes.
If the B10 picks up Duke too and UL, Pitt and Syr or GT have B12 spots the departing teams wouldn't have to pay the B12 targets very much to get them compensated more than the current ACC package. That scenario would require anywhere near the GoR maximum penalty.
If UL, Pitt, Syr and GT are B12 targets, it shouldn't cost that much to get them to move on.
** Edited by TDVick at 8/6/2023, 6:12:25 PM
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
2y
(In response to this post by TDVick)
2y
number?
(In response to this post by wwhokie1)
2y
dissolution occurs, we will pay you X dollars for the next X years. I'm not saying it IS going to happen, but it isn't as big a gap as people are suggesting. In that case, a school could get paid without the ACC staying intact, even though it voted YES to dissolve.
(In response to this post by wwhokie1)
2y
price is made with those that have a landing spot. 200M ++ is something FSU might pay - I wouldn't let them off the hook. If VT has an invite to the SEC or BIG, then you now know what the negotiated price is, and determine yourself whether or not it's worth it.
The rest in the ACC would then have more of an incentive to stay together. what if there were 5 teams that have an invite? That if 1B with a B at 200M.
The ACC stays together to fight another day, and teams like UConn would come on board in a heartbeat. they fit in the ACC better than the B12 any day of the week.
(In response to this post by TDVick)
2y
When I say the ACC gets disbanded, I mean that the GoR gets amended and the penalties are way less than you are suggesting.
As to who gets added to the remnant of the abandoned ACC teams, UConn is as good as any.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
2y
FSU has the lowest endowment in the ACC which points to a lack of fundraising on the part of the school. FSU's endowment stands at less than $900M as of today, if anyone thinks they can raise $250M in the next few years, then why haven't they done so yet?
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
H
hokieZ71
2y
The rest of the ACC would do everything it could to bankrupt them for a decade if they were actually doing this solo. That said, I don’t think they are solo in this. I think they’ve volunteered to be the angry vocal igniter for the fuse.
** Edited by hokieZ71 at 8/6/2023, 7:22:21 PM
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
2y
(In response to this post by hokieZ71)
H
hokieZ71
2y
Man I wouldn’t really care at that point. If they’re that spineless. If one team tries to leave they should be assessed as maximum a penalty as possible.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
2y
rate or negotiated settlement. Doesn't matter, just accept that it will get done and look to the next issue: GoR.
FSU has left the conference. There are now 13 members plus ND. The media contract, as far as we know, is not affected. We now divide the annual payout by fewer schools, so everyone gets a couple extra millions.
FSU demands the return of their media rights. ACC respectfully declines.
FSU files suit asking for return of the rights or compensation from the conference for keeping them.
FSU will offer (made-up figure) $250 million to the conference for return of the rights. Here is where message board rhetoric diverges from university presidents' decisions. Angry posters see only one possible course; let FSU sit out there and starve. Serves 'em right. Uni presidents hear "Did they say $250 million?" Let's counter with $500 million. The negotiation is on. FSU's media rights can be used as a club with which to punish them for their betrayal, or used as an asset that they may not be able to monetize in any other way. If they don't take the offer their asset diminishes with each passing year and they will have wasted it. I think they will take the money. The emotional reaction of outsiders will not be a factor in this serious business decision. There will arguments that making the deal will incentivize other malcontents to jump. So be it.
(In response to this post by hokieZ71)
2
2hhoop3
2y
payments are what keeps the contract unaffected. The asset is monetized each year with the rights payment and the decline in value is merely a reflection of the payments made. A President might hear what you asserted but more likely what he knows is I have a contract that guarantees a minimum payment of $40 million a year and depending on the landing spot likely more. The risk to a diminished value is the risk of losing a lawsuit and possibly the costs of defending the GOR in a suit, otherwise nothing is subject to waste as you assert.
(In response to this post by 33laszlo99)
2y
million per year for the whole conference. How The ACC dishes that out is internal to the conference.
There will not necessarily be a change in the media contract if one team leaves, as long as ESPN still gets enough content to fill their slots. If there is a composition clause in the contract, all bets are off.
But the conference is holding on to FSU's media rights for what purpose? Are they making money on them? They could make money by selling them back to FSU. I say they go for cash over spite.
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
2
2hhoop3
2y
on a variety of fronts. The fee is far more than the fla $240 you assert and that doesn't even approach the network and profit sharing agreement between the ACC and ESPN, which with the full year Comcast is now estimated to throw off another $120-$140MM a year EACH to ESPN and the ACC. FSU's media rights are owned by the conference and granted to ESPN and should they go to the SEC ESPN will just pay more for a property they already control. Should they go to BIG and say FOX pays $70 million then that $70 million is the payment. I would suggest you do a little more research because you clearly do not understand the GOR rights and mechanics of the contract.
(In response to this post by 33laszlo99)
2y
"FSU's media rights are owned by the conference and granted to ESPN." Nope.
FSU's media rights are owned by FSU and granted to the conference.
ESPN executed the media contract with assurance that the GoR is in-place, but they have nothing whatsoever to do with it. The other media money you cite is exactly in the same form as the base $240 million; paid to the conference for the entire body of content, not to individual schools.
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
2
2hhoop3
2y
the ESPN and ACC media deal is worth well in excess of $400MM now and rising. I don't know what you base your statements on but, you have an erroneous understanding of the GOR. If FSU owned their media rights there would be no need for their current whining and posturing. Your original assertion on negotiating and taking the cash is your opinion and one to which you are entitled but, your assertion of diminishing value aside from potential litigation results is flat out wrong and I believe people with good business knowledge and judgment would tell you that. It is essentially the often faced decision of taking a lump sum or annuity and that always hinges on expected cash flows balanced against present needs and options to redeploy receipts.
(In response to this post by 33laszlo99)
2
2hhoop3
2y
be dumb to offer anywhere close to $200 MM before at least 2030 and it might not even be a smart offer then.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)