Theory..ND decides who goes to P2
From Ryan G Thomas on X..."I will unequivocally say this. ND will decide the future of college football realignment. If it chooses to join the B1G, it will demand some combination out of Stanford, Duke, GT, Miami, UVA, UNC, and Cal to come with it. The B1G will acquiesce because the financial gain is that significant."
67 Replies
S
Stech
4mo
but it is clickbait.
PS I do think they are putting together a lame case to get out of ACC fees and bolt to an agreement with the SEC. I also think they are trying to keep UNC and UVA from going to the B10. Interesting that this comes out when there are recent rumblings about that.
(In response to this post by lord4bid)
4mo
football needs to break away so we can get back to your regional partners for the rest of the sports. no reason USC volleyball should have to fly to NJ for a mid week game.
(In response to this post by lord4bid)
4mo
compliance requirements? I guess you could include other compliance requirements (i.e. NCAA DI) in that question, but Title IX may still be the elephant in the room.
(In response to this post by VT Pez4Life)
4mo
If the football program leases the VT name, logo, facilities, etc. then it is a separate business and not part of the university. So VT would be in complete compliance with equal/more women's opportunities for students than the men (since you take away 110 men's scholarships from the equation).
As long as football is owned by the university, then Title IX applies to that sport and those scholarships are counted in the equation (is my caveman understanding).
(In response to this post by VTHokie2000)
4mo
If so, then wouldn't the university have to provide similar funding to the women's program to offset the expense? I ask because the decision to break football away from the rest of the NCAA would likely be at either the entire DI level or maybe the entire DI-FBS. I don't think it will work if schools are given the choice whether to spin football off or not because of the DI requirements. Football and basketball are the 2 sports identified where a DII or DIII can compete at the DI level in those sports while remaining DII or DIII for all other sports (think Johns Hopkins in men's lacrosse or the ice hockey schools). If it is the entire DI or just the DI-FBS, then I don't think there are enough private entities out there to generate enough startup capital to cover the initial cost to lease everything from the 136 or so schools. I think there are another 90-110 schools competing in DI-FCS now if we are talking all of DI has to make this move.
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
4mo
does indeed "break away" (whatever that looks like), Title IX will be addressed. Football should never have been included in Title IX to begin with, as there is no corresponding female sport that compares with it.
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
4mo
laws were created in the 70s and what was going on in society during that time. Since schools weren't proactive enough to give women equal opportunity (based on the three-prong test) to sports, football could be used to continue giving men an unfair advantage because schools can offer fewer women's sports since it is no longer apart of the equation. Plus, does DI really need 100+ players on a football roster? FWIW DII caps its roster at 53 equivalent scholarships plus 20 walk-ons.
My point is that if football is ever going to be removed from the Title IX equation, then these are the type of questions that will come up during the discussion. Like it or not, having no women's sport with that large of a roster isn't a good enough justification to remove football from the equation. If it was a good enough justification, then it would have already happened by now.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
4mo
the athletic departments.
(In response to this post by VTHokie2000)
4mo
included with the Athletic Department at this point. The justification will need to be more sound than that to pass any of the legal tests. You can bet the decision will face legal challenges. Particularly if their only argument is women's sports don't have a version of football. Heck I believe there may have been cases back in the '70s and '80s that tried to make that same argument and they lost at the time.
I found a couple examples.
Favia vs. Indiana University of PA (1993) - The university cut women's gymnastics and field hockey. The plaintiffs (female athletes) challenged the cuts. The university attempted to argue that football should be excluded from Title IX scrutiny, implying it was special and separate from the gender equity mandate. The court rejected this argument, refusing to exclude football. The court found that if a university fails to provide equal athletic opportunities, it cannot ignore the massive impact of its largest men's team (football) on the overall participation numbers. The court signaled that "total equality" requires counting all athletes.
Cohen vs. Brown University (1993-96) - Brown cut funding for both men's and women's teams. A central issue in this landmark case was whether the large number of male football players (even if they were not all scholarship athletes) should be counted when determining if participation opportunities were proportional to student enrollment. The First Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that for Title IX purposes, football players are indeed participants in intercollegiate athletics, and they must be included in the proportionality calculation. Excluding them would make it nearly impossible to hold schools accountable for gender equity.
** Edited by VTHokie2000 at 3/26/2026, 1:12:16 PM
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
4mo
instance, they could separate football from the athletic department, and form it's own entity. The Big East and other conferences have shown that you can have collegiate athletics and honor title IX requirements without football.
Football, probably in all of division one, including the FCS, can fund themselves without being part of the athletic department, and could be formed into a separate group from "college" athletics.
I'm not saying this is what will happen, but it has been my experience that legislation, if constitutional, trumps the courts interpretation of past legislation.
(In response to this post by VTHokie2000)
4mo
I'm not sure that has changed today.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
T
TerryD
4mo
"If ND stays independent, it will be because the SEC gives it a 6 game scheduling agreement and the Irish can park their sports in the Big East if the ACC collapses. ESPN and the SEC are highly incentivized to keep ND out of the B1G. ND going to the B1G would create a significant revenue gap between the B1G and SEC and give Fox legitimacy over ESPN.
Right now ESPN gets about 3-4 ND road games based on ND’s schedule with ACC, SEC, and AAC schools. It loses that with ND going to the B1G along with the Olympic sports coverage.
Having a scheduling agreement with the SEC and filling out the rest of the games with Big 12 or ACC teams could get ESPN up to 5 ND road games and would also dramatically improve the value of NBC’s ND home game inventory. Also, it keeps the Olympic sports under the ESPN umbrella rather than the BTN."
** Edited by TerryD at 3/26/2026, 7:14:18 AM
Link:
Ryan Thomas Tweet
(In response to this post by lord4bid)
4mo
He clearly doesn’t know that the P2 has much more power than ND.
ND can take maybe one school with it at most.
The SEC won’t agree to anything like a 6 game scheduling agreement.
(In response to this post by TerryD)
4mo
"He clearly doesn’t know... " I'm pretty sure Mr. Thomas knows, as we all do, that ND is less powerful than the P2. ND can, however, make a move that would stimulate other programs to act more quickly and secure a seat before the music stops. Visualize dominoes.
"ND can take maybe one... " Maybe the number is zero; maybe six. Doesn't make/break a deal.
"The SEC won’t agree... " The SEC would give Greg Sankey's right arm and Vanderbilt's Med school for a six-game package with ND.
(In response to this post by RandomAsianGuy)
4mo
Just like Mr. Thomas.
(In response to this post by 33laszlo99)
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2hhoop3
4mo
might be whether ND really wants a six game scheduling agreement and whether there are 6 teams in the SEC that ND can play and win with enough certainty to not damage their CFP goals?
(In response to this post by 33laszlo99)
4mo
The SEC has an even number of football schools.
If one SEC team plays ND during the conference game window (not in the early season), another team would have to take a bye week or schedule a non conference opponent. They would need to arrange this for 5 or 6 weeks every single year.
The ACC is willing to do it. We actually have an odd number of football teams, so it’s probably easier to accommodate in some weeks.
Sankey, on the other hand, won’t unless the payoff is very hefty.
From ESPN’s perspective, ND-SEC matchups are certainly more appealing. However, they already have six ND-ACC matchups in most years, and the ACC contract is locked in until 2037. I don’t see ESPN paying the SEC a big bucks for this.
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
T
TerryD
4mo
The only question to be answered is whether a six game SEC deal would help secure football independence.
If the answer is yes, then ND would do that. Whatever it takes to stay indy..........
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
4mo
It just doesn’t compete for a conference championship. It thinks it is a member of the ACC when it is convenient and thinks it’s not a member when it is not convenient. But it still has to play five ACC opponents and doesn’t have full control over who those opponents will be.
It’s a matter of semantics at this point. “Independence” is nothing more than a point of pride - a lot of pride, but nothing more than pride. Notre Dame can’t just go out and schedule a full slate of opponents the way it did in 1988. It has to account for the wishes of the ACC and NBC. That’s not independence. That’s marriages of convenience.
(In response to this post by TerryD)
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TerryD
4mo
No matter what outsiders call it, ND is going to keep it.
(In response to this post by Tailgate Guru)
4mo
ND needs to go off and be a true independent and see how long that nostalgia works for them. Admittedly it has worked longer than it would for any other school with the possible exception of Ohio State and Texas. But the status quo of today will not exist for Notre Dame, Virginia Tech or anyone in between in about five years or so and it would not be prudent for anyone to remain bound by notions from a bygone era.
(In response to this post by TerryD)
4mo
(In response to this post by Tailgate Guru)
4mo
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
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2hhoop3
4mo
for you and others in the independent or bust club. It is not like ND has a role as a perennial playoff participant that would be sacrificed either.
(In response to this post by TerryD)
4mo
With NIL environment they should continue to thrive. NBC certainly wants them to take on a challenging home schedule.
But you are right about survival against the SEC for ND.
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
4mo
ND leaves the ACC for whatever reason, I do not think they will have a football agreement with any conference. I think, and it's pure speculation on my part, they they will pick 7 or so teams to have a scheduling agreement like they currently have with Clemson.
Having an agreement with the ACC has forced them to schedule schools they normally would never have scheduled. By any metric, except for the top ACC schools, their SOS has diminished.
Their Olympics and basketball have a perfect landing spot in the Big East.
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
4mo
The Big East is fine for men’s basketball and not bad for women’s basketball (so long as Geno keeps coaching).
Start looking at other Olympic sports and there is no comparison between the Big East and ACC or Big Ten. The Big 12 and SEC are not as strong in most Olympic sports as the ACC or Big Ten but are still miles ahead of the Big East.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
4mo
bad, then I guess ND will win a lot of conference championships.
(In response to this post by Tailgate Guru)
4mo
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
4mo
The driver already knows where to park.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
4mo
the same conference as Butler before they went to the Big East. Everything but football and basketball - which used to be independent as well.
(In response to this post by Tailgate Guru)
4mo
But I already knew Notre Dame’s history. And it doesn’t change my view.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
4mo
is utterly irrelevent.
Oh, and excuse me, as we are nothing but beer in the can folks out here - and get this, we have truck stops and lunch pails too!
(In response to this post by Tailgate Guru)
4mo
And Notre Dame does not want to admit it thinks that way.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
4mo
like the PAC (and some) ACC schools.
Sometimes I think we forget this is about football, not the Universities.
(In response to this post by Tailgate Guru)
4mo
That’s why Virginia Tech has ACC games against Cal, Stanford and SMU this fall and none against NC State, UNC, Duke or Wake Forest.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
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2hhoop3
4mo
but, while the BE might be a good basketball landing spot it is closer to a zero for most, if not all, their other Olympic sports.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
T
TerryD
4mo
If football independence was a 100, basketball would be a 10 and the other sports a 5.
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
4mo
Two or three home football games per year is not a big deal. Those games could easily be replaced by comparable opponents from the SEC or Big Ten or even the Big 12.
(In response to this post by TerryD)
4mo
It’s not hard to schedule just five football games against marquee opponents and none of the rest will be missed.
I say that not to throw shade at ND; it’s just the way it is. ESPN could broker five games for the ACC with SEC schools tomorrow. Or with the more marketable Big 12 schools. The entire reason ND wants to be done with the ACC is because it is bound into too many dull matchups. For every Miami or Clemson, it gets a Syracuse or Wake Forest.
An ACC-SEC challenge series or even an ACC-Big 12 challenge would make far more sense and cents in the long run for the ACC and give ND the freedom it thinks it wants.
** Edited by Tailgate Guru at 3/27/2026, 9:41:22 AM
(In response to this post by TerryD)
T
TerryD
4mo
Please do it. No problem.
(In response to this post by Tailgate Guru)
4mo
But if that was going to happen early, it probably would have happened already, right?
The people who make these decisions like to have a certain crowd at their cocktail parties and for better or worse, people like our fine university president like having Notre Dame (and Cal and Stanford) being part of that crowd. And someone at Notre Dame realizes they have no better place to go unless they commit to the Big Ten or SEC. So we are stuck with each other a while longer. We get your school’s condescending AD; you get games with Wake and Syracuse.
(In response to this post by TerryD)
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2hhoop3
4mo
a large concern for ND, however, if ND football continues on its recent 30 year trend the Olympic Sports could become more important than you currently believe and that BE address may make recruiting in those sports even dicier.
(In response to this post by TerryD)
4mo
bad consolation with their $10M or so media deal. They could find a home for sports not sponsored by the Big East.
Hey, while were on the subject of ND, do you know if they are part of the uneven distribution set up of the ACC for football?
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
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2hhoop3
4mo
and would certainly be interested in the rationale for whatever decision is actually made.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
T
TerryD
4mo
ND is not joining the Big Ten, so the first part is moot.
The second part is TBD.
(In response to this post by RandomAsianGuy)
4mo
11 of the top 15 most viewed teams in the 2025 regular season were SEC teams...
Breaking into the Top 15 . teams that that were not SEC were Ohio State #4..Michigan #9..Florida State #14, Noter Dame #15.
(In response to this post by TerryD)
2
2hhoop3
4mo
at #15 seems to point up the folly that their appeal is enough to decide who might go P2. They are a downward trending property since their first NBC contract many moons ago and their last contract was propped up by B1G sleight of hand to bail NBC out.
(In response to this post by lord4bid)
T
TerryD
4mo
...are the big drag on ratings.
Hence, ND's gripe.
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
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2hhoop3
4mo
current product is a drag on their ratings as well and their current gripe is of their own making. Bevacqua as whiner in chief is a perfect fit.
(In response to this post by TerryD)
4mo
ND's current contract that expires in 2029. Let us not forget that NBC also has an inventory of Big 10 games. If NBC wants to be a player in college football, it's inventory of ND home games is it's cornerstone.
It is possible that NBC could pay ESPN or FOX, or whoever to get the rights to ND's home games as well, but currently, ESPN has not subleased ND's away games. With the ACC contract going to 2036, even if ESPN sold the rights to those games, the schools would not see that money. However, with the BIG and B12 negotiating new contracts in 2030, those conferences could actually get a bump in revenue with ND's away games. The SEC negotiates in 2033, so IF ND ever decides to change it's current format, The SEC schools would not see additional revenue until their new contract is negotiated as well.
The 2029 ND contract extension with NBC as we approach 2029 will tell the tape IMO.
Also, a question for the board - is ND football included in the uneven distribution calculations for the ACC? Not for ratings, but for money?
** Edited by Big12 guy at 3/26/2026, 11:19:21 AM
(In response to this post by TerryD)
T
TerryD
4mo
"Also, I believe an alliance between the SEC and ND would shift Duke and UVA to join the SEC giving it access to the NC, VA, and certain northeastern markets (Duke has a huge NJ presence). People need to understand how ND impacts the UNC/UVA/Duke political relationship. Those three will follow each other if they are given the opportunity to do so. The SEC wants the midatlantic and ND might secure it.
The trick is whether the Irish can find a suitable home for its Olympic sports if the realignment impact is to implode the ACC. ESPN could easily shift teams from the ACC to the SEC or Big 12 to maintain its inventory market share. B1G fans should not discount ESPN’s vested interest and incentives in this regard. If the Big East, rebuilt ACC, Big 12, or SEC can house other ND sports, ESPN will make it happen. It has a lot at stake and is highly motivated. That is why the B1G will gladly accommodate whatever ND requests.
All eyes are on the Irish"
(In response to this post by TerryD)
V
Vippie1
4mo
UVa UNC and Duke have comparatively little athletic history with ND and not all that much in common with ND culturally or geographically. ND possibly playing a partial SEC football schedule as a non-football member will have less than zero baring on what those schools ultimately decide to do. The grandiose self-importance that this guys tweets convey is staggering.
(In response to this post by TerryD)
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2hhoop3
4mo
anything else from a Lamer other than grandiose self-importance?
(In response to this post by Vippie1)
T
TerryD
4mo
He has nothing to do with ND.
Nice try, though.
Here is his Twitter bio:
"Ryan G Thomas 🇺🇸🇺🇦🐈⬛🐈⬛🐈⬛🐈⬛
@Running_Ryan
Corporate tax M&A/Int’l tax advisor, political junkie, BYU sports fan, & Fitness enthusiast. An esoterically eclectic Classical liberal FA Hayek. Georgetown Law
Washington, DC
Joined August 2011"
(BTW, a Big 12 podcaster did a show yesterday on this Tweet.)
** Edited by TerryD at 3/26/2026, 1:00:58 PM
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
V
Vippie1
4mo
to conclude his thesis at what might motivate UVa/Unc/Duke is non-sensible.
(In response to this post by TerryD)
T
TerryD
4mo
I care nothing for UVA/UNC/Duke.
I paid no attention to that, quite frankly.
(In response to this post by Vippie1)
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2hhoop3
4mo
more than one allegiance but, BYU or ND what is the real difference? That resume says it all. Nice try though. Who pays any attention to Big 12 podcasters?
** Edited by 2hhoop3 at 3/26/2026, 1:25:48 PM
(In response to this post by TerryD)
2
2hhoop3
4mo
were the four corners going to go? That was akin to predicting the sun will rise in the east. Like I said, who pays attention to Big 12 podcasters? Aside from Big 12 fans.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
4mo
out there concerning realignment. That being said, before the PAC imploded, this very board was blaming them for their demise.
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)