Every non-NFL property ‘is going to struggle’ in future media negotiations
Link is below. One of the reasons why I think the Big Ten and SEC may be hesitant to expand further in the years to come -- the money simply may not be there. The NFL is going to ask for the moon and then some on their next media rights package and ESPN, Fox, CBS, and NBC are going to get squeezed for every dollar they have with streamers like Netflix and Amazon running up the price. Also, I believe both the MLB/Fox and NHL TV deals are up in 2028.
Link:
Link
44 Replies
4mo
For me, it's about the difference between the P2 money and that of the rest of college football.
And you know the blue bloods within the P2 and also ND are going to do what it takes to stay ahead of the masses and keep a competitive advantage.
(In response to this post by SMU Pony)
5mo
That said what else would sports channels show? Some of b-ball games on Saturday's are very unattractive.
(In response to this post by SMU Pony)
5mo
They want brand names who generate top revenues .so programs who can improve their national brand will succeed -grouo of 5 well public access. This is sad but hard reality
(In response to this post by MrFantastic!)
5mo
now I’m not so sure, it seems like sports are only thing people will watch live anymore. Of course, what the hell do I know? I’m just a guy in my pajamas with an epic cold.
(In response to this post by SMU Pony)
5mo
So to your point, it will likely make the bubble continue to grow, or at least, it will delay the crash.
That being said, the sport is getting more tawdry, and I already greatly cut back on my viewership in the least five years. And I watch zero ESPN college football talking head shows.
** Edited by Maroon Baboon at 3/4/2026, 8:50:06 AM
(In response to this post by mancunian)
5mo
I vaguely know a high up municipal judge, politically connected Democrat, very proud of his intervention programs for first time offenders and misdemeanors. He told me that literally within 2-3 days of Ohio legalizing sports gambling there was a huge surge in property crimes. Legalizing this **** nationwide is a bad idea.
** Edited by mancunian at 3/3/2026, 4:09:01 PM
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
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Vippie1
5mo
to self destruct ourselves, singularly or possibly in totality.
As Gordon Gecko said, greed is good. Well , at least until it isnt.
(In response to this post by mancunian)
5mo
It should be off limits. That’s something the sport should be able to control. And yeah. The whole thing is gross.
(In response to this post by mancunian)
5mo
it will be interesting to see how much of extension sports gambling gives the bubble before the new crash date is determined. Is it possible there will never be a true crash or a complete bubble pop because there will always be something "new and exciting" to help feed people's sports addition? If so, then what does that mean for the people already on the train and looking to get off at the last station?
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
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Stech
5mo
They use the MLB model, and the P1 teams are the triple A teams. They just use the NFL rules for a lot of the challenges that are hurting the top SEC teams the last three years.
The other Division 1 football teams basically become AA and A level.
NO I DON’T WANT THIS, but much like people said the Power 6 would not become the Power 4 (no PAC or Big East football at tier 1 anymore), then people at first refused we would get to a Power 2, and low and behold less than a year ago the Power 2 get majority control of the College Football Playoff. Getting rid of competition through consolidation has been around since the beginning of time, and it never stops.
NO I DONT WANT THIS TO HAPPEN, but the NFL negotiation power makes the SEC and B1G look like a minor league baseball team. Yes the pun was intended.🤣
(In response to this post by SMU Pony)
5mo
Fans from left behind programs won't support it.
When people watch Michigan vs. Ohio State, it just isn't UM and OSU fans tuning in.
So if this is just a money grab by blue bloods, it's pretty dumb. There's better ways to do it.
(In response to this post by Stech)
5mo
Standard Oil. I can see it now..."the John D. Rockefeller Cup is on the line today as Ohio State and Texas square off...again...for the Standard Oil National Championship, brought to you by Google, Meta etc."
(In response to this post by Stech)
5mo
The NFL plays on Thursday evening, all day Sunday, and on Monday evening during the Fall/Winter season. What will the networks do for content the rest of the week and the rest of the year? NFL reruns?
Yes, the cost of NFL content will grow. But carriers will not pay so much that it becomes unprofitable. If the whole package requires that the cost be spread among more carriers, fine. They will each buy their respective piece of the pie and compete against each other week by week.
The non-NFL sports content will attract competitive bids and will also increase. This is not a zero-sum situation.
I see so much fear expressed on this board and elsewhere that the P2 will "BREAK AWAY." Not happening. The B1G and SEC don't trust each other, don't like each other and cooperate only to the extent necessary. The respective media companies harbor similar enmities. If college sports splinters, it won't be by conferences, it will be by media blocs. This will be the driver for aggressive pursuit of college football rights as well as realignment. Newly bulked-up Paramount (CBS) will be a drunken sailor in the live sports market.
(In response to this post by SMU Pony)
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Vippie1
5mo
I think we've had this discussion on the board before about NFL rights. Where the fear of losing prestige and the strategic (not easily quantified) benefits that accompany NFL broadcasting makes networks (and streamers ) blow out their budgets. I can't see where this would not have some trickle down effect on lesser important sports media deals. Sure there will still be demand for NCAA football and basketball to fill out sports programming but there are plenty of alternatives, whereas there is no NFL alternative. It isnt that the ACC , for example, wont have a decent deal, it is the hockey stick projections that the suits in Charlotte might be hoping for or selling as projections may not materialize.
(In response to this post by 33laszlo99)
5mo
traditional linear networks. It is easily the main driver of advertising dollars and keeps the networks afloat. Without it, the networks become shells of their former selves if they even continue to exist. Scripted episodic programming and news divisions will die.
(In response to this post by Vippie1)
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Vippie1
5mo
prestige, ability to promote other shows within broadcast, lead-in and post game programming etc. A lot of folks out there would never know what else is going on at NBC, ABC, CBS, Fox without NFL games that force them onto the platform. So the value definitely exceeds ad revs.
(In response to this post by Femoyer Hokie)
5mo
will be forced to grow up. They can't allow NFL lust to wreck their budgets.
(In response to this post by Vippie1)
5mo
The Big 12 will be in a very precarious position.
Their contract ends in 2031, and I just don't see TV networks/streamers paying big bucks for them.
(In response to this post by SMU Pony)
5mo
Of course that amount is in danger of not looking good either.
** Edited by wwhokie1 at 3/3/2026, 8:18:38 AM
(In response to this post by RandomAsianGuy)
5mo
ACC has some bigger name football programs, but the content, top to bottom, game to game, for both football and basketball, is superior in the B12. I know you think the Big 12 is basically a G5 compared to the ACC, but I'm telling you now - if the B12 gets low balled, it's not going to bode well for the ACC.
Frankly, I think it will end up moot anyway - I don't think the ACC will look anything like it does now in 2031.
(In response to this post by RandomAsianGuy)
5mo
** Edited by RandomAsianGuy at 3/2/2026, 6:20:00 PM
(In response to this post by Baltimore_Hokie)
5mo
That’s exactly why the ACC's long term contract with ESPN is such a big deal.
ESPN already exercised its option to extend with the ACC through 2036.
The ACC may lose some schools around 2030 and the Big 12's contract expires in 2031.
But should ESPN keep paying for two mid tier conferences? What would be ESPN’s best move?
What if ESPN lowballs the B12, what would be the 4C schools best strategy?
If I were ESPN, I would lowball the B12 and if they don’t take the offer, move the better Big 12 properties to the ACC and be done with it.
(In response to this post by Baltimore_Hokie)
5mo
lock, stock, and barrel like it does the ACC. The ACC will also be vulnerable heading into the 2029-2030 timeframe. I think a lot will hinge on what FOX and CBS want to do, and if Netflix, Amazon, and/or Apple want to start accumulating college football content. Disney, FOX, CBS, and to a lesser extent Amazon are all going to be paying through the nose for the new NFL contract. If Netflix, Apple, or even Amazon want to get into the college football game, that will absolutely be the time to do it.
I really don't understand, if consolidation is the name of the game, and football drives the bus, why anyone would want to consolidate into the ACC. The ACC is, far and away, the worst major football conference. It has about 3 super high value football programs, another 3-4 decent football brands, and the other 9-10 programs are absolute dog doo from a name brand standpoint.
Why wouldn't a disruptor (or disruptors) want to take the 6-7 programs that have any juice out of the ACC and plop them into the Big 10, SEC, and Big 12? Why would any of the 4C schools be hot to leave their current set up to play away football games in empty and/or tiny stadiums at Duke, Syracuse, Pitt, Boston College, and Wake Forest? And, who in their right mind would watch that on TV vs. any other games in those already crowded time slots? How do you sell that to advertisers? I just don't see the money in it.
(In response to this post by RandomAsianGuy)
5mo
the TV networks and the P2.
The CBS/TNT merger might be good news for the Big 12, as they may be more interested in mid-tier products. I don't see Amazon, Netflix, or YouTube going after mid-tier college sports content.
We'll see.
(In response to this post by Baltimore_Hokie)
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Stech
5mo
The B12 has neither. I do think 1 or the other will absorb teams when some ACC teams leave, but based on those two things, I think the ACC will get B12 teams and not the other way around. No one knows, but those two actions are likely big indicators.
(In response to this post by RandomAsianGuy)
5mo
Let’s see what people will say after the 2024-2025 revenue numbers come out, which should show the ACC schools getting $10M+ more than the B12 schools.
(In response to this post by Stech)
5mo
that is when the new B12 contract started.
(In response to this post by RandomAsianGuy)
5mo
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
5mo
compare apples to apples, otherwise, you looking at ACC's glorious past, not it's future - at least as it compares to the conference distributions compared to the lowly B12.
BTW - a legit question. What happens with the fans of the schools under the new uneven distribution system when their distributions are lower than the B12's? We can assume that FSU, Clemson, and Miami will get more money, but what we don't know, is who will get less. I will find it interesting if a school like Louisville all of a sudden is earning less than Cincinnati. Not taking a shot at VT here, but given the recent past, they too can find themselves making less than Cincy, UCF, and Houston.
Not sure how that figures into your calculations of the ACC picking up B12 schools around 2030.
** Edited by Big12 guy at 3/2/2026, 7:58:46 PM
(In response to this post by RandomAsianGuy)
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RJHokie
5mo
of those conferences.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
5mo
the ACC had contract negotiations coming up in 2030, it could possibly work, but 2036 in this day and age is just too far off.
(In response to this post by RJHokie)
5mo
That may be important given that many people predict the ACC will undergo significant change as early as 2030 or 2031. At least most people don't think the uneven revenue distribution will be enough to keep all the current members in the conference until the current GOR expires on June 30, 2036.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
5mo
until 2036, it worked. If it doesn't work, the lower distribution schools will be paying FSU's exit fees.
If the ACC is still together in 2036, then the network strategy will have paid off.
A lot of ifs.
(In response to this post by VTHokie2000)
5mo
remain in existence until 2036. I'm not sure most people would call it a "success" if the ACC is minus Clemson, FSU, Miami, maybe Notre Dame, maybe UNC, maybe UVA, maybe GT, etc. when the current GOR officially expires on June 30, 2036. Most people may say it is a "failure" because the ACC may look more like a MASH unit. Let's just hope the ACC isn't on Frank's operating table while Houlihan is busy flirting with Hawkeye during the operation just to get back at him because she caught him flirting with one of the other nurses earlier.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
5mo
don't know what the new B12 media deal will look like after the additions of the 4 corners, but even after the PAC imploded, and the next 4 schools that were worth anything chose the B12 should at least send a message.
The B12 is chalk full of schools like VT. The ACC is not.
(In response to this post by Stech)
4mo
It appears it will be negotiating its next media deal in one of the worst environments imaginable...even if it can scrape something together, the networks are going to know they just need to be somewhere in the ballpark of the then-current ACC deal to lock it up.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
5mo
** Edited by RandomAsianGuy at 3/2/2026, 6:13:03 PM
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
5mo
(In response to this post by RandomAsianGuy)
5mo
however. IMO if the B12 gets a profound raise ($10M more than the ACC by the end of the next contract), the ACC is doomed. If they just get an extension of the current contract, there would be no reason for any school to bolt their current conference for the other. If the B12 gets less money, which it appears you think, then the B12 is doomed.
Most here say that it's about the money. Regardless of what happens with the next B12 contract, every single school in our respective conferences would bolt to the SEC or BIG, without exception.
(In response to this post by RandomAsianGuy)
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Vippie1
5mo
The NFL is about to suck almost all the oxygen, i.e. money, out of future media deals. Everyone else better get use to taking haircuts.
(In response to this post by SMU Pony)