In what condition will the P2 leave the 2nd Tier of college football?
I consider the 2nd Tier to be the ACC and BigXII. To me, that's the biggest question there now.
How many more will they poach? And will they include the 2nd Tier in the CFP and other happenings?
Lots of deserving schools in the 2nd Tier even after UNC, FSU, and Clemson leave (if they do leave).
It's a tough position for VT right now, and many other good programs in the BigXII and ACC.
If I could have a song title to describe the situation, it would be "Who'll Stop The Rain" by Creedence Clearwater Revival. Especially with all the madness of transfer portals, NIL, conference realignment, all the government and court involvement, and so much more. Come to think of it, maybe all the leftovers could start the CCR conference. LOL.
30 Replies
2y
that have ALWAYS had more money, had better recruiting, could afford the best coaches, have the larger stadiums, unbelievable fans, and the eyeballs on television.
Honestly, what has really changed???????
I think what has changed is that it's not just the Ohio States, the USC's, Alabama's, Georgia's, Texas's, or the other blue bloods having the advantage. They always have had the revenue advantage.
What has changed is that they have been consolidated, and will be playing each other in the regular season now. What has also changed, and is the biggest issue that no one sees, is that we now have Indiana's, Mississippi State's, Northwestern's, Vanderbilt's, and Purdue's with the money and recruiting advantages that that money brings.
THAT IS WHAT FSU IS PISSED OFF ABOUT. And the rest of the left behinds.
K-State for example, was never going to make as much as Oklahoma and Texas - in the same conference or not. Mississippi State was never going to make as much as Bama, or even Tennessee for that matter. With all respect to the VT faithful, they are not on the same level as the blue bloods - never have been - and never will be. They can certainly compete, and they are certainly NOT a G5 type of team, but they will never earn the revenue of a Texas, tOSU, Michigan, USC, ... and many others.
If Utah, OSU Kansas, ASU, Colorado, and a few other REALLY good athletic programs are not in the P2, then it's very unlikely that a North Carolina State University will be invited to the dance. It just isn't going to happen in this mans opinion.
Settle with Clemson, FSU, and hold the ACC together. ESPN, FOX, or some other media player will tell the leaders of the conference what they need to do to have a competing (third best?) contract.
The only thing that will change the landscape in my opinion will be a break away from the NCAA of the top football schools, and if that happens - VT (and K-State) will be there.
In the meantime, control what you can control, and give a finger to what you can not control.
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
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VTCALS72
2y
And my regionalism is from a fans, supporter, "eyeball" perspective and not marketing plans. The statement things will pretty much be the same is from a small state, no P2 school in close proximity view. Take ISU and OSU and add say 2 more P2 schools that fans have as much access to for a day trip as they do OSU and ISU. Do you think the ISU/OSU presence/market position would not drop like a rock?
It is not based on "really good" athletic programs, especially those in low population states and regions. There just are not enough eyeballs in any of those schools you listed under those circumstances. Do you really think that even two of the big 12 best, ISU and OSU could be included in the P2 and with that backing, draw anywhere near the same eyeballs that VT/NCSU would? Remember this is about getting more money and there simply is more money in two adjoining states that rank from 9th to 12th in population.
NCSU, VT, GT, Pitt, and L-ville could all be left behind and have the P2 in their faces in just about every time slot in a way the Big 12 schools you mentioned will not. And, VT and NCSU are really up against it as they will be surrounded by P2 teams within distance that fans can drive by their stadiums in 3 different ways to attend P2 games for a day trip.
It is just a different world.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
2y
Two major changes.
1. Availability of all games on a national basis. You are no longer stuck watching the regional game of the week and 3 national games involving big national brands. Now, every team, every game is available to watch. So, you don't have to watch Duke vs Wake because Raycom said so, you can watch OK State vs TCU if you want. Plus, we don't have local sports anymore, it's all national. The current key demos never knew a time wiithout ESPN.
2. Gambling. It is not about TV eyeballs selling Spurtles any more. It's about attracting degenerate gamblers. The money follows the money. If your brand brings in viewers that will in game bet, you will be promoted. That means name brands nationally, not regional interest.
I think it is terrible for the sport and the mass of fans will be left behind and stuck watching Beth Mowens and 4 cameras televise the games of 80% of teams on some streaming platform, but the top tier will create a business model that will out revenue (even if it doesn't out draw) all but the NFL.
** Edited by Vienna_Hokie at 6/7/2024, 9:00:21 AM
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
2y
ISU and OSU as a combo, already get more eyeballs and fans in the stadiums/arenas than VT and NCSU. Both ISU and OSU's major rival is an in state "P2".
You guys live in the Mid Atlantic. There is no such thing as a "day trip" in the B12. The states are large, and spread out. Except for the States that have 2 members (Texas doesn't count because of it's size), almost all of the road games are not "bus" games for the teams, nor are they day trips for the fans. It's always been like that, and the only difference with UCF and the Arizona's is the time in the air. The additional "travel expenses" that many sight is minimal. Remember, it's fly over country for a reason.
I think many dismiss recruiting as only being how much money you can pay the players. VT and a K-State never consistently competed with the Georgia's, OSU's Oklahoma's, FSU's, or any of the other blue blood programs when it pertains to recruiting. Without even looking, how many 5 and 4 star recruits have the 4 teams you mentioned recruited in the last 10 years? Compare that to the blue bloods. The blue bloods will continue to outperform in recruiting, just like they always have. Nothing has changed.
Do you think Indiana is now going to be able to out recruit VT or K-State because they now receive more money? I'm not at all convinced that will be the case. Do you think that the 2nd and 3rd string recruits will be content cashing a check while sitting on the bench of a P2? Not a chance.
It's my contention that it will take a really good coach, some old fashioned recruiting and player development, and a run of winning the key games - and any team not in the P2 will be able to compete. Just like it has always been.
The B12 with their contract will never make as much money as the P2. Hell, look at the teams in the B12 - they NEVER made as much money as the blue blood programs - EVER. Yet, they have passionate fans that attend games, watch on TV, donate to the athletic department, and are filled with pride when they win a conference championship - just like it has always been.
The money has been monopolized - but it's my contention that it has always been. Going back in history with the bowl tie ins, then BCS, the blue bloods and conference champions got their money - The G5, and mid tier P5 teams got crumbs. Really, not much has changed - except now, the blue bloods will play each other in the regular season, rather than in bowl games.
Do you think that will take away from the post season? I don't. Do you think that Indiana, Rutgers, Mississippi State and South Carolina will now be better than VT or K-State year after year because of money? I don't. There are just too many kids that want to play the game - and their motivations are as diverse as the population.
VT will be fine in a diluted ACC, or a new Big East, or a version of the B12. So will K-State.
** Edited by Big12 guy at 6/7/2024, 8:22:50 AM
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
2y
on some kind of different level from a branding and support standpoint than VT and NCSU. I'm not trying to pick a fight here, but if you really believe that, you're getting way too high on that Big XII pack, friend. I recommend you get some fresh air.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
2y
better than VT or NCSU, I think they get more viewers and fans - they sell out religiously like Lane does, but in both football and basketball.
I was responding to a guy who thinks they are G5 (in other posts as well). I do not think they are better than VT or NCSU - there isn't a lot of difference between them.
I'm not THAT high on the B12, just putting the G5 stuff to bed.
(In response to this post by Baltimore_Hokie)
2y
however, I don't think either brand is more valuable from a fan support or branding standpoint than VT or NCSU, which is what it sounds like your position here is.
When it comes to OSU, I would consider them a commensurate football program to both VT and NCSU, but certainly not ISU. I'm not trying to pick on ISU here, but they've definitely got to be in the running for the lowest value football brand in the Big XII. If not ISU then who? Kansas? ISU is like Shasta to Iowa's Coke Classic in their own state....ISU just doesn't move the needle at all outside of Ames, Iowa; sorry.
I think both OSU and ISU are inferior to both VT and NCSU when it comes to basketball programs. I suppose OSU historically has some deep runs in the NCAAs, but that's pretty ancient history at this point if you're trying to claim OSU has special basketball pedigree. So, I'll allow that OSU stock in basketball may be a little above VT, historically speaking, but not present day, and NCSU's basketball program blows both the Big XII schools' away in terms of branding, historical success, and fan support.
** Edited by Baltimore_Hokie at 6/11/2024, 3:27:03 PM
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
2y
anything. They have a 60K stadium that they fill each and every game, and that is with NEVER winning anything. I don't consider ISU a "brand", but they are way under rated. It is always a tough place to pick up a win, in both football and basketball - a really cool venue to watch games.
It's not so much the success on the field, or court. It's the fan support, the eyeballs, the passion, and the atmosphere. While i have not attended a game at Lane, it's on my bucket list of stadiums to experience - maybe in a couple of years - EXACTLY because it would be like the atmosphere in Ames and Stillwater.
I've seen a game at NCSU, but it was in the early 90's. Of all the NC ACC schools, they had the best atmosphere, but not even close to a sell out. NC, Duke, and Wake were just plain lame.
(In response to this post by Baltimore_Hokie)
2y
UNC, Duke, and Wake are all more-or-less worthless when it comes to football.
UNC thinks they're really something, and the media desperately wants them to be, but they will always get mauled by anyone with a pulse. Duke may as well shutter its football program; it's playing in the wrong division, and any time they look even remotely otherwise, you can bet dollars to donuts the coach will be out the door immediately, and things are back to square one. Wake Forest fans will try to tell you how great they are, and everything they bring to the table, and why they should be taken very seriously, then reality sets in and everyone watches their football team have one decent year out of every 7-8, and all their good players from that squad leave to play elsewhere.
Frankly, one of the above assessments would be applicable to almost all the football programs in the ACC, which is why the conference is going to implode as soon as the used chewing gum currently covering the hole in the dam finally gives.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
2y
new additions ASU and Houston (and KU), their stadiums are full no matter how their teams are performing. Because of the lack of exposure for not winning anything, many in the ACC don't even know, and is what many were surprised that they got what seemed to be a media deal that was too high. I put the fans in the PAC in the same category.
Out here, most have no idea how passionate the VT faithful are. They put you in the same category as a Cuse, BC, or Wake. (I don't). They just know about Miami, FSU, and Clemson - because of the branding, and they have actually played for something.
I guess national branding comes with playing in the top bowls on a regular basis - and no one currently in the B12 has that history.
(In response to this post by Baltimore_Hokie)
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VTCALS72
2y
That is a huge difference in attendance
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
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VTCALS72
2y
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
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VTCALS72
2y
CFN had a 4 year average attendance ranking covering 2019-2022 Now bear in mind this timeframe covered COVID which everybody was impacted but it also marked the low point of VT football with the 2020 and 2021 seasons with a now fired coach. None the less for the 1st year new coach in 2022 and a 3-8 record, VT drew more fans than anyone in the B12.
#24 ISU with a 48,604 average attendance and a 2022 of 57,344
#25, VT with a 46,340 4 year averages and a 2022 of 64,357
#31 OSU with a 46,154 average and a 2022 of 54,735
#32 NCSU with 45,557 average and a 2022 of 56,526
Now watch 2023 and beyond. the B12 schools are a whole lot closer to being maxed out than either VT or NCSU
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
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2hhoop3
2y
and certainly calls in to question the assertion about ISU/OSU versus VT/NCSU.
(In response to this post by VTCALS72)
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2hhoop3
2y
inaccurate everyday?
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
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2hhoop3
2y
but, it does beg the question of how you might know.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
2y
Well, except the gap is widening.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
2y
In the end, if you don't end up in the P2 then your program might as well not exist.
(In response to this post by HokiesACC2004)
2y
that is for sure - but ask yourself, do you throw away the entire athletic program because it will be all but impossible to compete for a natty every year?
Last i checked, my school has never won a football natty - maybe never will. I mean, what is the bar here? I'm extremely optimistic of he level of competition in the B12 - and the ACC is right there - P2 or not.
** Edited by Big12 guy at 6/7/2024, 11:09:46 AM
(In response to this post by HokieNoVA)
2y
compete in their own division or DI subdivision for the revenue sports.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
2y
If you look at the history of teams since the playoff started in 2014, there are two main things that stand out.
1. There are a lot of P2 teams that had very solid records and would be included in an expanded playoff. That is money just being left on the table. And the "almost" teams are a big reason they want that bigger pie now.
2. They had back to back disruptions in recent years with Cincinnati and then TCU making the four team playoff. Along with multiple undefeated G5 teams over the years, this represents a threat to the money train. The past five years in particular have had too many uninvited guests almost making it to the playoffs. They needed more control over the playoff teams.
Yes this is primarily about money, but it's also about ego and wanting the constant messaging about the P2 being the best. So we end up with an expanded P2 (to get the best remaining schools) and an expanded playoff (to get more of the P2 in and better guarantee a P2 champion).
** Edited by HokieAl at 6/6/2024, 11:31:34 PM
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
2y
Vandy and Northwestern get their playoff payout no matter who plays in the post season.
The money grab is a result of NIL, player salaries, and NCAA legal liabilities. Every team that is not in a P2 conference, would like to be. Some are aggressive about it, some more passive, and some fatalistic.
If you are not P2, athletics is a survival game.
(In response to this post by HokieAl)
2y
Yes, Vandy and Northwestern still cash their checks, but none of this is about Vandy or Northwestern. Frankly, the big money brands are pissed they have to give Vandy and Northwestern anything at all.
In their ideal world, the SEC and B1G leadership want all 12 playoff spots to be SEC and B1G teams, so they can continue to demand more control over the sport and more money from their broadcast partners, to the exclusion of anyone not in the SEC and B1G.
The current CFP model only lasts a couple years. When the current contract is up, the SEC/B1G drums will start beating day and night for no automatic qualifiers and all at-large selections, the "best teams, regardless of conference affiliation," and they will point to the fact that way more SEC and B1G programs have been playoff selections, which will be true because they will have pushed the "strength of schedule" and "conference supremacy" narrative so much that 4 and 5 loss SEC and B1G teams will be getting placed in the field.
And the pencil necked, limp-wristed, no backbone, completely listless leaderships of the ACC, XII, and the G5 conferences will do what they always do - acquiesce, so they can bend over and gather up whatever table scraps the SEC and B1G decide to leave them on the floor, like ants.
The next playoff model will likely be 16 at-large teams, with no auto-qualifiers for conference champions, and 90+% of the field will be SEC and B1G programs. The playbook has been wide open, the writing is already on the wall.
(In response to this post by 33laszlo99)
2y
Has been opened that can never be shut. Days of the NCAA football are over. The P2 will take a couple more, whom? That’s the billion dollar question. After that there’s no way the remaining outside schools will be able to keep up. College football I say maybe even a few years from today will be nothing to compare to what’s it’s been up to now. I for one am not sweating it. If VT doesn’t make the cut for the P2 it wont destroy the athletic dept, it just won’t be as high profile. Hey maybe we’ll be the largest stadium in the lower cut and tickets will be readily available without high prices. Just some good old football on a nice fall day with friends. We’ll survive.
(In response to this post by Maroon Baboon)
2y
the moment tv revenue began to exceed expenses, instead of spending it all on facilities and coaching salaries (and buyouts), maybe, just maybe, these school admins (via their conference commissioners and the NCAA) should have been figuring out how to make sure their revenue generators could share in the new found riches. instead, they thought they could spend all this new money on everything but the athletes because scholarships (which existed when athletics depts were LOSING money) and fancy locker rooms would keep them happy.
let's face it, all the new money was, in one way or another, spent on behalf of coaches. from direct salaries ballooning to building the things that would help them recruit to expanding the sizes and salaries of their staffs, all the new money was spent on coaches, not players.
if we still had coaches making hundreds of thousands a year to live comfortably in college towns and athletics depts balancing budgets with a fine toothed comb in order to cover the costs of basic needs, i'd be all about the classic amateur model where the scholarship is the prize to come rep our school on the field, but that moment came and went a long time ago when the tv money started rolling in and coaches started getting millions and millions of dollars spent on them and their priorities.
(In response to this post by cricket77)
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VPI 1924
2y
Also making the P2 will financially destroy numerous athletic departments. Player strikes and law suits will take a toll.
(In response to this post by cricket77)