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HokieAl HokieAl OP
Dec 08, 2023 at 09:48 PM ET
Thought the board would find this post interesting (link)
It is attempting to outline past conference and media moves to explain the consolidation of power and how that influenced the playoff selection. And how it ultimately will be the cause of FSU and others leaving the ACC.

37 Replies

O
ombandit
He lost me when he misspelled “throats”
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Stech
I’m more and more thinking B1G takes FSU, Clemson, Miami & they hope ND as
the plus 1. If they can’t get ND, I am not sure who they would take. They probably would just wait for ND, as I think the B1G money 💵 will eventually dwarf the ND money. They do like to spread out, and like NFL towns due to the size of the market, if they get tired of waiting for ND. Then the SEC takes the remaining Mag 7. The question is when does this happen? I’m thinking sooner than most people think with the Pay for Play Division looming strong. Get your 🍿 and prepare for the show. ** Edited by Stech at 12/10/2023, 7:09:20 AM
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EDGEMAN
If the ACC collapses, does ND head to the B12 asking for the same deal?
And would the B12 give it to them? I think the latter is a definite yes.
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TerryD
Only if no other options
It will seek the same deal with the Big 12 only if the ACC is not sufficiently backfilled to survive and the Big East is not an option, for whatever reasons. Anything to avoid joining the Big Ten in full and giving up independence. ** Edited by TerryD at 12/11/2023, 9:10:02 AM
S
Stech
ACC won’t collapse, look for schools like Tulane, Rice USF to join Stanford
Cal and SMU. Phillips said even if we lose a few, we will be okay. ACC will stand for Academic Conference of Champions. Look more schools that fit that model to join the ACC, when some ACC schools leave for the P-2.
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tarheelblue
I'm sure ACC has already vetted them and a few more like UConn.
If the ACC lost 4 schools tomorrow they could easily backfill with those 4 the same day and continue on.
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Stech
Yeah, UConn would be a good 4th & w/ the 3 they just got, covers Mag 7
if they were to leave. TerryD won’t like it, but if they have the break off of the Pay for Play for tier 1, ND “may” have to join the odds on favorite B1G or the long shot, SEC to make the playoff. However, Notre Dame is admittedly the Houdini of Independent football, not other sports, but definitely for football. ** Edited by Stech at 12/11/2023, 12:44:53 PM
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TerryD
The breakaway P2 would take an independent ND with them
ND would sign scheduling deals with both. You heard it here first.
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Stech
Dream come true for you, like I said in another post, ND is the Houdini of
Independence, so I will never say never. 🤣 PS I do love your persistence on Independence, man seriously, that’s awesome!! 🍀 My Great Granddaddy would have loved it based on stories I heard about him, even though I never met him. Seriously, keep being you!!
T
TerryD
Why be anything else ?
M
MrFantastic!
Penn State doesn’t desire Pitt but
I can see Fsu GT Clemson Unc Uva to the then Big 24. VT, State , ok state , Kansas, SEC 20 ND gets their academic National association with miami duke Stanford involved. Also look at this . Would Nebraska move to SEC. Be possible. Nebraska can’t recruit good enough in BIG . Doubtful but….
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Stech
Okay too many of you guys are missing the big point, I don’t know why
everyone is hung up on Pitt guess, but I am editing my post to take them out since so many are focusing a minor guess point, over the other 3 that is a big point.
3
33laszlo99
Would the media companies agree to that?
In selecting expansion targets The B1G and SEC need the support of their media partners. If The B1G manages to add FSU, Clemson, Miami; as you suggest, the fourth could be Georgia Tech rather than Pitt. It makes for a tidy little TV bundle in and around Atlanta. The OTA media partners and BTN would be able to exploit that market. I like Pitt, huge endowment, fine academics and sports tradition; but they will always be in the shadow of PSU. The SEC and ESPN are far better off trying to expand into North Carolina and Virginia, even if they are required to accept two schools in each of those states. ESPN has seen its advertising footprint shrink substantially. They need to reach beyond their current boundaries.
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EDGEMAN
If that happened, ESPN could drop their ACC contract and kill the ACCN.
Even though they pay way under the market value for the ACC, I'm sure they'll be happy to no longer support it. The remaining ACC teams will get a G5 level television deal.
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Stech
IMHO the B1G wants ND, if they don't get them, it's a guess who they might
go after. GT and Pitt would certainly be candidates.
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tarheelblue
There are 2 primary criteria for expansion candidates.
The first is big brands that will make for good matchups and will lead to higher TV ratings. Notre Dame certainly fits that bill, as does arguably FSU, Miami, and Clemson. Unfortunately for Pitt, they just don't fit this criteria. The second is expanding the conference footprint into new, large states for more TV markets and BTN subscribers. Pitt does not fit this criteria either because Penn State already does that for the B1G. UNC/NC State, VT/UVA, GT, FSU/Miami, even Syracuse and Duke all do this better than Pitt for the B1G. There's simply no way Pitt is getting in the B1G. UConn or BC have a better chance, and their chance is basically 0. ** Edited by tarheelblue at 12/9/2023, 10:51:47 PM
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Stech
Probably so, but you’re missing the forest for a minor tree. I just through
out a school name other than ND, the bigger point is the other 3. The 4th is pretty irrelevant compared to that.
3
33laszlo99
Right. Nothing is certain. I can't even settle on a "No.1."
T
TerryD
The Big Ten has chased ND since the early Nineties
ND turned them down flat in 1999. ND turned them down again in 2010-12 and again in 2022 after USC announced it was going to the Big Ten. The Big Ten hoped ND wouldn't get it desired $$ from NBC. They were disappointed again. I guess that the Big Ten believes it has a shot at ND in 2029. Its Captain Ahab and the white whale.
W
WBGV
I don’t believe the media companies would be willing to pay
for that many conference additions. IMO, the bus that is driving conference realignment is TV ratings for lucrative matchups. With that said, there are only so many time slots on Saturday along with a few night games on Thursday & Friday available for those matchups. I don’t believe that conferences are going beyond 20 members because the laws of diminishing returns for the networks starts to be a factor. Also, rivalry games are lost and the conference becomes difficult to manage with too many members. I also don’t believe that the SEC or the B1G will be willing to take two schools from the state of North Carolina or Virginia. The linking of schools politically greatly diminishes the school’s value to other conferences and to the networks because you are talking about 2 shares of revenue vs. one share for basically the same state. It is great to be linked if you are on a lifeboat together, but being linked together on a sinking ship is not so great. UCLA left CAL for dead, Oklahoma left OSU for dead, Washington left WSU for dead, Oregon left OSU for dead, and only when schools like FSU and Clemson leave the ACC will we know if the political will is strong enough to keep UNC & NCST together and/or VT & UVA together in the same conference. ** Edited by WBGV at 12/10/2023, 9:48:38 AM
D
daveinop
yet, the media partners want expanded conference schedules for more content
W
WBGV
They have enough games. They want better matchups with more eyeballs.
3
33laszlo99
All good points, Stech. But I can see growing beyond 20 if it serves a
clear financial or strategic purpose. Politicians in Va and NC are a little different than most. Maybe they will learn from the mistakes in OK and the West Coast. Am I giving them too much credit?
HokieAl HokieAl OP
I think the size depends on the media partner
ESPN has a lot of channels that need content. They may have prioritized the SEC above all else, but they also have a lot of airtime to fill. Which is why they need a lot of schools under their media umbrella (they have a lot of the G5). I can see the BIG being pickier if they want. CBS and FOX are not as aggressive with the multiple channels. It’s those two, Fox sports, CBS sports, and BTN. On the Disney side we have ABC, ESPN, espn 2, espn news, espn U, SECN, ACCN, espn 3/+
W
WBGV
The amount of money networks pay conferences for content also matters.
Paying G5 schools a few million dollars a year for content is drastically different than paying B1G or SEC schools $50 - $100 million a year for content. “Viewership” is king and at some point adding schools to a conference won’t bring in enough money to justify it. Having to add schools with political tagalongs also changes the equation. The B1G strategically took USC & UCLA first and then watched the PAC-12 slowly implode over the next year to the point where Washington and Oregon were willing to leave their long time conference members even from the same state behind. The 4 corner schools for the last year claimed that hell would freeze over before they would join the Big 12 and we all know how that story ended. Not only did they join, but they were thankful for the life preserver and extremely thankful that they weren’t one of the four schools (OSU, Calford, and WSU) that were left behind with only terrible options for their athletic departments. The conferences and networks have the luxury of time. If the B1G and/or the SEC along with their networks strategically just took FSU and Clemson, they could then afford to let the dynamics in the ACC playout before making additional moves. The desire to join one of the P2 conferences will grow even stronger with time, but the concern not to end up like OSU & WSU will also grow stronger with time. In the end, I do believe that the remaining three power conferences along with the blessings from the networks would end up taking 10 ACC schools (2 to the B1G, 4 to the SEC, 4 to the Big 12, and 5 left for dead). I believe that VT has an excellent chance to be one of the 4 schools to the SEC, but not if UVA is in that group.
RTFC RTFC
Remaining three power conferences...
that's cute. It's the P2. The only reason its the ACC versus the B12 that is likely breaking up is because it's the only one that has locations/schools that are desirable to the P2. VT, as often happens, is on the bubble of that - whether B1G or SEC, depending on number they decide to grow into and some state politics. You don't hear any talk of any further B12 teams going to the P2 - they are an afterthought right now - not a P3. If this does happen, the remains of the ACC will likely look to the B12 to forge some type of agreement/merger/association, which could take any of a variety of forms - anywhere from complete dissolution of the ACC to the ACC picking up some lower level teams and just having a scheduling agreement with the B12.
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tarheelblue
You lost me at Pitt. They would take GT, NCSU, or even Duke before Pitt.
V
VTCALS72
I don't think the big wants or needs Pitt at all.
The already have Penn State as the flagship of Pennsylvania. The last need is a school from Virginia and one from NC. With that the Big will truly become a national conference except for flyover country which they are fine with the B12 having. but, when the big goes into the southeast, the battle will be on with the SEC. And who knows where that would end?
HokieToph HokieToph
I think Pitt would be one of the last teams the BIG would take. They offer
nothing in the way of increased revenue and/or rivalries. Most PSU folks don't consider them rivals at all. I would think the BIG would go after UVa, UNC, VT before Pitt.
ColoVT82 ColoVT82
Money drives all. Regional vs national conferences. Maybe 4 divisions in
The future: CF north, South, Central, and West. If it becomes a TV rights battle between ESPN, Fox, CBS, NBC....some poor staff person in the upper echelon of cfb aught to review how things went down in the afl/NFL merger days.
Maroon Baboon Maroon Baboon
Byron "Whizzer" White, a college football player, was 1 the 2 dissenters
in NCAA v. Board of Regents of University of Oklahoma (1984). White was an All-American running back at Colorado (and valedictorian). Awarded a Rhodes Scholarship to study at Oxford and graduated from Yale Law. Also had a great NFL career with Pittsburgh. Oh yeah, and fought in WWII (Navy) and was twice awarded the Bronze Star long before becoming an associate justice on the Supreme Court. Pretty complete life if you asked me. Anyway, I thought it was interesting that Whizzer White seemed to see what was coming in college football. The other dissenter was Associate Justice William Rehnquist, who would become Chief Justice two years later. They knew. A brief write up of the case: ** Edited by Maroon Baboon at 12/9/2023, 1:01:03 AM
Link: Oyez
2
2hhoop3
Interesting read. Thanks.......
some history(mostly accurate)mixed with some fiction(creatively written) and some opinion as seen through the eyes of an obviously disheartened Seminole fan or one of a bunch that hates Alabama.
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TerryD
He is a Nebraska fan and ...
....a Big Ten expansion Twitter "guru".
2
2hhoop3
That doesn't mean.......
he cannot be a Nole fan as well and given the toilet Nebraska has resided in for so long now, he probably harbors hate and envy for Bama as well. He may fancy himself a Big Ten expansion Twitter guru, who knows maybe he and Fluguar can combine sources to write their next pieces of fiction together.
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TerryD
I follow the realignment thread on Warchant
Genetics only recently began posting there and he is no FSU fan. The FSU fans on there know that. I have also followed him on Twitter since 6/22. He has an agenda to promote the Big Ten to win the realignment "wars" against the SEC and become the biggest thing in college sports. He has been doing it every day since before USC and UCLA joined the Big Ten. He and Flug are actually rivals despite both being Big Ten homers and each takes shots at the other. ** Edited by TerryD at 12/9/2023, 9:12:31 AM
2
2hhoop3
Interesting that.......
you believe you can reach all those conclusions from observing some postings on social media. Just to be clear I never said the two were friends just that given their penchant for fiction and fantasy they could perhaps collaborate. If you play your cards right maybe you could be their legal advisor.
M
Mercury
interesting... take this is why this topic is crazy
Who has the inside information, what really is going on, the battle between conferences, and schools also want their own way. My that is a corporate intrigue and conspiracy movie ready to be made.