So when does the FSU President come out and debunk this rumor?
I thought it would be first thing this morning. Also, how about Clemson, Oregon and Washington? This thing is spreading like a wildfire, but nothing from any of them yet, or did I miss it?
61 Replies
3y
is stirring the pot to get ESPN to discuss renegotations on the contract for the possible move to the BIG. He wants more info before Wednesday's BOT meet.
** Edited by HoakieCup at 7/31/2023, 7:42:02 PM
** Edited by HoakieCup at 7/31/2023, 7:42:46 PM
** Edited by HoakieCup at 7/31/2023, 7:43:55 PM
** Edited by HoakieCup at 7/31/2023, 7:44:32 PM
** Edited by HoakieCup at 7/31/2023, 7:44:52 PM
** Edited by HoakieCup at 7/31/2023, 7:45:14 PM
(In response to this post by Stech)
3y
What motive would they have to do that?
(In response to this post by HoakieCup)
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vtka93
3y
I make the assumption he meant that ESPN would renegotiate to NOT lose FSU
BTW if this is to put pressure on ESPN to renegotiate, I can't believe they will fall for it.
(In response to this post by wwhokie1)
3y
playing both sides. FSU has been doing their due diligence, weighing excess travel cost for moving to the BIG, how much they think it will cost to get out of the ACC, etc. If ESPN would renegoitiate, to help close the gap, good for FSU. As much as people think FSU has the money to exit the ACC, just a few years ago their athletic budget was bleeding cash. They didn't suddenly get a pile of money overnight. Play both sides and see how this all comes out. Two things are true. They are not happy in the ACC surrounded by schools that have better financial arrangements within their respective conference (SEC) while competing with them for recruiting and if the SEC does not come calling due to no better footprint expansion, the BIG is the next best option.
** Edited by HoakieCup at 8/1/2023, 8:32:13 AM
(In response to this post by vtka93)
3y
(In response to this post by HoakieCup)
3y
I believe they want to get out, but lack the way forward. The most they can do in my guess is create instability through discontent. At best in my mind they have to wait til 2030
(In response to this post by Stech)
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VPI_1998
3y
(In response to this post by chumley)
3y
All mag7 desired going BIG together. Also being involved with Fox cbs nbc and notre dame
(In response to this post by goldendomer)
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WarHog38
3y
I saw that sharing detailed in a Link somebody put under my OP Post that is below. Bowlsby shared his attorneys with Swofford. You saw how Texas & Oklahoma played their get away from the Big 12. They announced in 2021 and did not play in three football seasons in the SEC before entering in 2024. Texas & Oklahoma paid $100 MM to avoid sitting out a 4th SEC Football season and get to the SEC one year early before that GOR expires in 2025.
All that to avoid litigating a GOR. All that is clearly demonstrated because Texas & Oklahoma announced their move to the SEC four years early.
If that was parroted exactly in the ACC. That would put FSU & Clemson announcing their SEC or B1G move in 2032. Then they would sit around three years to avoid litigation and then pay the ACC a few hundred million.
I mean any ACC school wanting to leave the ACC can see it clear as a bell. It is stay in the ACC UNTIL 2035 or FACE LITIGATION. There is no in between as some folks here want to believe is a relief.
I think FSU and those other six Magnificents have decided they cannot wait until 2035 to avoid litigation. They see those many 100's of Millions lost on a bad ACC media deal worth facing that litigation.
(In response to this post by goldendomer)
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hokieZ71
3y
Which isn’t much of an announcement except it could cause other schools to go crazy and see if anything happens to weaken the ACC’s position
(In response to this post by goldendomer)
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hokieZ71
3y
(In response to this post by Stech)
3y
involved? I am just trying to pinpoint your thinking. I wonder if it would be that much better in 4-8 years, I have my doubts if you think you are going to lose now and probably lose then too. Why not just take the fight on now and see what happens?
(In response to this post by hokieZ71)
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hokieZ71
3y
It’s going to cost them to leave. And it’s going to cost them to stay.
They probably don’t have the money it takes to leave now. $120M penalty for leaving early. Add to that TV rights over 13 years equaling about $812.5M (using the B1G’s 2023-24 rate of about $62.5M per school through the entirety of the 2036 ACC GOR (even though it’s going above that $62.5M in the future so I’m cutting them some slack) and you are looking at a bill of roughly $932.5M.
Now you could argue present value of future cash flows and all that but it’s a really big number. But settlements always happen. Texas and OU I think had to pay like $50M to the Big XII to leave one freaking year early. So I’d guess no less than $300M+ in a settlement with the ACC (unless the ACC leadership is just weak as they can be). Nobody has pockets that deep.
But they also really can’t afford to stay very long if they want to keep up with their competition (Florida, Georgia, Auburn, Bama, etc…). They’re going to be at a deficit of at least $30-$50M per year for the next 13 years. That adds up to a similarly large number.
Personally I’d get my high level donors on board (and FSU has to have a few deep pockets) with trying to fundraise and build a war chest over a period of a few years to attack a future settlement fee that might end up closer to $200M by 2030. At the same time I’d announce it as soon as your mind is set. The Big Ten has to be happy until 2030. But they have to also presently see the value in expanding again at in 2030 for their next deal. FSU has to be way at the top of their list. So announce it now. Try to freak out the rest of the ACC, or ESPN or the SEC or Big XII. Create instability if instability helps you meet your end goal.
(In response to this post by Stech)
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vtka93
3y
FSU will pay 30 million a year over the length of the GoR, not sure how they do that unless the ACC agrees to give them their TV rights. And I can't belive the ACC would do that
(In response to this post by hokieZ71)
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2hhoop3
3y
and if it did there would not be that favorable of an installment plan. All these sites and the Nole fan sites are like the freshman girl on her first spring break that forgets everything her parents taught her growing up. They will likely wake up with a hangover on or before August 15 because they ignored rule #1, always follow the money.
The money includes a $120MM estimated exit fee, a GOR fee of $480MM - $840MM and the associated legal and other expenses to litigate the matter. If you take a middle of the road estimate for all the associated amounts and set it at $700MM that essentially equates to 10 years or more of BIG or SEC distributions to buy their way out. That translates to running your AD with limited revenues outside of booster and internally generated funds and makes maintaining a competitive program very unrealistic, even before considering the possible new requirements created by NIL, athletes as employees, etc.. It is hard to see how the numbers can work absent a successful legal challenge to the GOR and likely evidence as to why other transfers were planned/executed at or close to expiration dates of conference agreements.
(In response to this post by vtka93)
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vtka93
3y
Just my FSU "friends" can't see how no conference would be that stupid and it would never be that easy.
They can't grasp the fact that they will have little to no money coming in to use on their program. Also if its true that football pays the bills, what would happen to their other sports.
It's funny because they keep telling me I am stupid for not "understanding" how easy it is for FSU to do this. yet they haven't done it) :)
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
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2hhoop3
3y
FSU grads or just FSU fans? I would say you send them a note after August 15 with an Atlas Van Lines moving certificate valid until 2034 for the next time they think they might be moving somewhere. The above was merely a hypothetical and the total could vary but, whether they get "0" or some higher amount it is likely a cash flow negative compared to doing nothing, absent a booster or boosters stroking checks or litigating the matter. Also, were they to have those type boosters they could just as easily invest those funds in their program, make it stronger and ride it out until the GOR expires or the conference dissolves. Payments for exit fees and foregone rights fees are cash outflows with dubious benefits. If I was an FSU booster I would question the thinking and question whether I really trust the guys that make that type decision making spending decisions at all.
(In response to this post by vtka93)
3y
making an announcement of some forever from now in this environment is just tossing the grenade to start chaos. Probably the idea that if they make themselves such a PIA the others may take less just to be rid of them. I just don't see them ending up in the BIG, as much of a misfit as USC/UCLA are (talk about a culture difference), the gap is almost as wide with FSU and the BIG. If they leave, they are going to the SEC where they believe they belong, as will Clemson if they leave. But I don't see ESPN devaluing one asset (the ACC) to move that asset to another asset where they have to pay them more.
I could see Miami go BIG, it is a school in the south, not a southern school.
I will say though, I'm not convinced this whole thing today isn't just the ramblings of a WV B12 troll, if you look at the other articles on that page, they are all fantasy, as he accuses others, throwing stuff at the wall for clicks, maybe one will someday come true.
(In response to this post by hokieZ71)
3y
(In response to this post by hokieZ71)
3y
if they can get a better deal by renegotiating, all the better. There are 2 logical reasons for this rumor...
1. FSU is being a willing patsy for a portion of ACC schools who want to force the ACC and ESPN to renegotiate.
2. Big12 trolls are trying to create the belief that the ACC is about to implode to get schools like us, NC State, GT, UNC and the Hoos to pull a CO and bail for the Big12.
Given the source of this, I believe it's #2 (in two ways :) )
(In response to this post by goldendomer)
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vtka93
3y
Because it would potentially cost a lot to join the distant 3rd place conference. I do not see it as worth it right now.
(In response to this post by Vienna_Hokie)
3y
(In response to this post by Vienna_Hokie)
3y
I think we should believe what Alford said back in February. The exit fee is ~$120 million and the GoR; "We've got that handled." My quote may be inexact, but that's the message.
FSU has made the decision to leave. It may be ugly, expensive, and contentious. But even if they have to fight their way out with an axe handle and a steak knife, they are leaving. Once they decide that each passing year is an economic negative, and cumulative, the correct move is to leave and challenge the GoR as soon as possible.
(In response to this post by Vienna_Hokie)
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2hhoop3
3y
in February why are they still here in July? I think we both know the real answer but, you are unable to admit it to yourself and just enjoy trying to stir the pot. The real problem is FSU made statements they had neither the checkbook or ability to cover and now they are trying to figure out how to save face with fans, conference peers and potential conferences that might be a future landing spot.
(In response to this post by 33laszlo99)
3y
majority on this board. But FSU officials are not going to act according to my internet prose. I don't mind if you disagree or offer your criticism or ridicule (to the ideas, not to me). Love a good argument.
The passive approach to the issue will simply allow it to fester. The schools who are serious about remaining relevant need to take deliberate action to change the course of events. The P2 are building empires that will consume all of the media money and TV timeslots. Get in on that or be ready to gamble on streaming subscriptions for revenue.
I am actually concerned that The SEC is vulnerable in the face of B1G expansion. If The B1G occupy markets in the SEC footprint, the OTA networks will shower them with money. I think a move by the B1G for FSU and Clemson is exactly the kind of "defensive" strategy we expected to see from Sankey. It will deny The SEC the premium brands they planned use in their Southeastern monopoly. The SEC/ESPN are less adept at monetizing large metro markets like Atlanta, Miami, and Tampa. The B1G, with OTA partners, can better exploit places like that.
I view The SEC's plan to concentrate all of the "brands" together in their confined footprint as a crapshoot. But I understand their reason for it; "brands" is what they do best. I hope they make moves to gather properties outside of their comfort zone.
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
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WarHog38
3y
I always was more concerned about the loss of Texas & Oklahoma for the SEC. David Boren, Bob Stoops & Deloss Dodds were not SEC southerners. Bob Stoops made it his pastime saying the SEC was overrated. Boren was known to be strongly pro B1G. Texas had been talking Pac-8 since the late 1970's and Deloss Dodds nearly brought that to fruition in 2011. Larry Scott nixed that deal at the last minute over the Longhorn Network, something that now will apparently haunt the PAC forevermore. All three of those people left positions of power at Texas & Oklahoma before both those schools announced an intention to join the SEC. I think all three leaving was an absolute necessity.
I think there is absolutely no chance of Clemson not going SEC. You cannot get much more southern than South Carolina. I can elaborate but will not take the space here for a history lesson. FSU is another animal. Having already passed on the SEC a little over three decades ago. I remember seeing the SEC put in an extremely bad light on FSU blog boards about ten years ago. I just don't know about FSU.
The SEC is great in football due to recruiting hotbeds. Great football coaches is a necessary but secondary issue. The SEC has relied on those two things bypassing the desire for a presence in the huge media markets. Huge media markets the B1G is now striving to control. B1G getting FSU & Georgia Tech would be a big blow against the SEC with the large Atlanta media market and the huge Florida recruiting hotbed. I don't think the SEC can withstand the B1G gaining that type foothold in the Florida recruiting hotbed. Georgia is another recruiting hotbed. Arkansas has got a lot of football athletes from Georgia since entering the SEC.
(In response to this post by 33laszlo99)
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2hhoop3
3y
original question. If they are adhering to the theory of just do it why haven't they just done it? They haven't done it because it makes no sense at present from a financial perspective and even less sense from a competitive perspective. Alford and the rest are flapping their gums trying to distract from the abysmal job they have done, DESPITE a sizeable revenue advantage over the majority of their fellow ACC members.
The SEC's decision to go all in with ABC instead of spreading it around could prove an issue, however, I don't think they really fear the BIG or the possibility they might get some schools from the southeast. The BIG, despite its revenue advantage, is an on field/court competitive failure. They are the definition of Avis, the #2 part, not the we try harder part. They have two national championships in football this century, one on an official's gift and one in basketball. They are the literal definition of form/hype over substance, aside from the assorted socially deviant behavior and scandals at their flagship properties.
I agree you have to be proactive BUT, actions for the sake of action can be stupid and sometimes knowing when to be patient is a far wiser decision. If you truly hold a contrary opinion and have studied these issues as you claim perhaps you would be willing to share your cost calculations and risk/reward calculations because I do not see how the numbers work.
(In response to this post by 33laszlo99)
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2hhoop3
3y
would interest Yormack(sic) about this post?
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
3y
B12 has an opportunity to set itself apart, and have a definitive nich that would make them competitive with the P2. The B12 is not a landing spot for the name brand blue blood football programs - let's just get that out of the way. Oregon and Washington fit in the B12 as much as FSU and Clemson - in other words, they don't.
There is quality competitive football in the B12, and people out here, watch them - so they will always marit a sound media contract, but will never compete with the Big10 or the SEC.
What could set them apart is picking up some REALLY good blue blood basketball brands, and set themselves up for the upcoming change in the NCAA tournament contract. While all of the moves today are for football, the next pile of money is in basketball, and while it will never be more than what football is worth, look at the number of viewers for top national regular season games. They add up to a LOT of viewers.
Youmarks remarks about negotiating basketball media deals separately from football is what has my attention, and could put the B12 schools on solid footing in the money department, and compete with the Big10 across the board.
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
3y
no economic analysis, just as Big12 guy failed to produce notarized copies of the signed media contracts. That's because we are not arguing the merits of a legal case in court. We are knuckleheads spit-balling under-developed opinions on a message board. Lighten-up. This can actually be enjoyable.
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
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2hhoop3
3y
more spit than ball and despite your protests more stirring the pot than contrary opinion. You were the one that said it was a contrary opinion and I asked you to defend that opinion as evidence of how developed it might be just the same as I have done with the Big 12 guys. Fun, at least in my opinion, is a discussion of opinions with well developed defenses of the points presented and counterarguments to challenge opposing viewpoints.
** Edited by 2hhoop3 at 7/31/2023, 8:28:42 PM
(In response to this post by 33laszlo99)
3y
are married completely to ESPN/ABC. Bad thing for the ACC is there are now going to be fewer spots for them.
(In response to this post by 33laszlo99)
3y
that GOW. But the renewal bidding went to over $300 mil. CBS now has a similar GOW from The B1G for $350.
(In response to this post by reestuart)
3y
but when Wake and Pitt are your premiere programs on the field....
Time for the malcontents (and in some ways I include us in that) to start winning so that we matter and quite whining that we don't get any respect from ESPN.
(In response to this post by reestuart)
3y
One for all, and all for one. In my humble opinion, Colorado left, not because of the media deal (what ever that is), but because Oregon and Washington wanted uneven distributions. That, and they want in the Big 10.
Pitt will be another Colorado if the ACC continues down this path.
(In response to this post by Vienna_Hokie)
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2hhoop3
3y
let CBS slip away or did CBS take themselves out because they were unwilling to pay? Going off memory but, CBS had enjoyed a good deal for a long time that priced out around $50MM annually. ESPN/ABC came to the table with $300+MM for that piece of the package.
(In response to this post by reestuart)
3y
And tie up the GOR impact in court (no clue if possible), then that could be a path for them. But it all depends if they can get relief from the GOR sections that lock down the home game revenue.
(In response to this post by 33laszlo99)
3y
Swofford.
(In response to this post by Vienna_Hokie)
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2hhoop3
3y
dumb and desperate to even entertain the idea of jumping to a conference that is more G5 than p3. Is there one property, aside from maybe Kansas hoops, that is a desired P2 target at present?
(In response to this post by Vienna_Hokie)
3y
I don't think they want to be.
they will however, be P1 in basketball if the ACC continues to sleep. It will be enough media money to keep them relevant, be very competitive in football, and even win a national championship from time to time.
TCU did not get into the playoffs and beat the undefeated Big 10 champion because of media money, I assure you. As a fan of the B12, I've never been more excited for the conference. We just got rid of Texas, so I hope they don't bring in an Oregon or Washington.
As a fan, Arizona fits, then wait and see if the ACC can work through their problems. I don't see how the ACC gets to Bif10 money, but that's just me.
You guys are still trying to be a P3. Hope you make it, but the B12 has already moved on, and hopefully, they are still looking at the basketball brands.
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
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2hhoop3
3y
ACC, PAC 12 or Big 12 is getting to SEC/BIG money. The difference in size of schools, fan bases, media markets, etc. is too substantial. The only realistic goal is to keep the gap close enough to maintain a semblance of competitiveness. TCU had a magical season last year with a lot of fortunate occurrences, in some ways reminiscent of VT's 99/00 season. The question for the Horned Frogs is whether that was a one time deal or whether they can string together multiple double digit win seasons. I am not as optimistic as you that the Big 12 or the ACC or new PAC? or even the BIG outside of Ohio State and maybe Longshot UM and PSU can win a football national championship. Having to win 3 or more playoff games reduces the likely pool of winners to somewhere in the range of 6-10 teams.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
3y
becomes a perennial winner. Coaches change, schools will be up, then down. i think there is too much parity in the B12 now that Texas and OU are leaving. No one could keep up with Texas in the revenue department, but even kansas found a way to beat them in football.
Saban will retire, and a different SEC team like a Tennessee will be the hot team for a while. It's always been that way. there are very rich programs that have always had the edge with money - I mean, always. OSU and Michigan come to mind.
Maybe things will change, but from where I'm sitting, there are always teams that can compete against the bluebloods - no matter which conference they were in, in now, or will be in.
There will continue to be 5, 4, and 3 star recruits that will be playing for schools not in the BIG or SEC. There will be up and coming coaches that come from the G5, and lower P5 schools.
I would be more concerned if the playoffs didn't expand - because then it would be the BIG against the SEC. BUT - the playoffs DID expand, and we just don't know if that Boise State, or UCF team could have knocked the big bows out of the playoffs or not.
We will find out soon enough, and ask Texas - having a 20M+++ advantage in their budget didn't win B12 championships. Instead, that new money they will get will relegate them to 8-4 seasons in the SEC, and they will be watching the B12 champion, and every once in a while, a B12 at large from the comfort of their living room.
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
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VPI_1998
3y
power teams into 2 conferences there will be less Championship winners - maybe even go so far as to say less "blue bloods". Remember when Nebraska, Notre Dame, Miami were frequently winning Championships? They are all now more than 20 years removed from the three of them winning any. I would say they ain't blue bloods any more. And remember GT, Maryland, NC State, BYU winning National Championships? Never again in this current scenario - there will be 5 - Bama, Georgia, Ohio State (when they get another coach) maybe USC and maybe LSU. The rest can forget it, and that really sucks for 90%+ of college fans - because I would bet 90% aren't fans of those teams.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
3y
have knocked off the top teams, but never got a shot at the title. The bowl tie ins relegated them to lesser bowls, and the top programs would not schedule them. We relied on polls to determine the top teams, year after year, and they tended to be the "blue bloods", year after year.
The expanded playoffs will expose the top teams as a team of college age kids, and they can be beat on any given day. I do not think the National Championship will be the same 5 teams year after year. there will be a G5 that will knock off the top ranked team in the playoffs - it's not an if, it's a when.
(In response to this post by VPI_1998)
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2hhoop3
3y
thinking, as you have been told before, is it is not just "any given day." With the expanded playoff it is any given 3 or 4 or maybe more days depending upon the size of the expanded playoff. In that setting, the likelihood of a Cinderella pulling that off decreases exponentially and favors the better and deeper teams. You can look at championship history of both football and basketball and see this vividly demonstrated.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
3y
has more parity built into the system then is given credit for. Winning in the polls because the strength of schedule favors the big conferences like the Big10 has been proven in the bowls to be a farce. Yes, the top Big10 champion will probably always be one of the best teams, the strength of schedule and all of the ranked teams below them have been skewed for decades and decades.
You have been told, again :)
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
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2hhoop3
3y
your contention does not have any supporting evidence while there are years of support for the other side.
(In response to this post by Big12 guy)
3y
they would be in a stronger position. If you're a PAC12 school, those 3 are reasons to not do a deal with the B12, without them, there is some potential for a deal.
(In response to this post by 2hhoop3)
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hokieZ71
3y
That's on Wednesday.
(In response to this post by Stech)
3y
(In response to this post by Stech)
3y
friend. Then I thought, it would be interesting to see what others say. It has definitely gotten interesting, especially Vienna Hokie with his legal point of view on contracts. Of course as a business man, if I had a lawyer that didn’t agree with my point of view, all I did was get another one 🤣🤣 Just joking, kinda.
(In response to this post by HoakieCup)
3y
until then is all they see.
(In response to this post by Stech)
3y
Maybe they behind the rumor. I imagine a lot of lawyers in Bristol CT are scouring legal agreements this morning.
(In response to this post by Stech)