Just to paraphrase the point I saw from Swaim (please correct). Really eye
opening
This is the primary one
One of his twitter posts said the UCF will make more TV money THIS YEAR than FSU and UM.
If true... WOW!
So the B12 that was supposedly "on the ropes" has HIGHER payouts than the current ACC?
My conclusions:
When we got into the ACC and WVU got "jilted." I remember telling a WVU person, "in the B12, you will actually have big games almost every week and ... other than money... actually have a better set up than the ACC."
Well, now I guess the money part is no longer true.
Why can't the B12 set up a TV network like the B10. I don't understand why in the age of the internet this matters, but somehow the cable negotiations are based on bringing a state? Maybe someone can explain this. This might be some anachronism and cable itself is in serious decline. Either the B12 can copy the B10 and close the revenue gap or maybe the B10 model regarding cable isn't that solid, since cable itself isn't that solid. Either way the B12 doesn't look so bad in this light.
I really hope we can get an SEC spot, but I guess the B12 isn't as bad as I had thought.
This still looks like that in 2011 VT mismanaged their position WORSE than any school in history by not going to the SEC.
Notice how Utah is getting ragged on because once upon a time they could have jumped to the B12, but now that slot might NOT be there. What do you say about a school that "urinated" away a spot in the SEC, knowing that UNC was always a more desirable franchise than them. A school had a very rare window where 3 schools whose natural football appeal was much higher than theirs (Clemson, FSU and UM) weren't being considered by the SEC, due to an agreement that was eventually bound to unravel and did. That was the point I repeatedly made back in 2011.
The Colorado AD said that "Colorado will do what's best for Colorado" - as they should! The VT people didn't do what was best for VT back in 2011. They took the course of action that ruffled the least feathers. No one had the spine to sharp elbow their way out of the ACC into the SEC.
And now the ACC is basically a corpse.
What was that nutty Wallace Loh at Maryland doing? Why would any "FLAGSHIP" member the ACC just up and leave. He was just some guy from China that didn't know much about American sports. Now Maryland has a secure spot and doesn't have to worry if they can jockey past UVA or UNC into the B10. We are far below UNC and UVa as B10 addition and we are probably way below FSU, Clemson and UM as SEC additions. There was a time when (like Maryland) we could have moved our asses and avoided this situation.
** Edited by TDVick at 5/30/2023, 4:09:44 AM
** Edited by TDVick at 5/30/2023, 4:17:56 AM
** Edited by TDVick at 5/30/2023, 5:12:51 AM
29 Replies
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WBGV
3y
“According to Jason Beede of the Orlando Sentinel ($), the four new entrants to the Big 12 — UCF, Cincinnati, Houston, and BYU — will not get full shares in their first two years. Instead, they will get:
$18 million in 2023
$19 million in 2024
Full shares starting with the new contract in 2025”
“That’s still a massive jump from The American, which paid UCF about $8 million in 2020-2021, and whose deal would max out at $10 million per year by the time it expires in 2031.”
The article was written before Texas & OU finalized an early exit so things may have changed somewhat.
(In response to this post by TDVick)
M
Mercury
3y
one guy with an opinion and gut and listening to another podcast expert with no sources. They both look informed and knowledgable on a PODCAST and creation of fake narrative.
They may be enjoyable to talk, but behind the scenes there is no THERE there.
(In response to this post by TDVick)
3y
Their financial situation minus the Texas/OU settlement is still very good considering that they lost their marquee teams. The difference is, they did get to negotiate a new TV deal at the current market value and got to again split their media rights amongst multiple outlets, increasing the value of their rights deal, in-line with current schools and the current market. Not only that, but they will get to do it at least once more before the ACC deal is up. While the ACC/ESPN deal has “look-ins” those are still exclusive to ESPN who doesn’t have to compete against anyone while evaluating those look-ins. The Big-12 also handled football and basketball separately in those dealings, getting a better overall deal for basketball as those rights were further split between ESPN and Fox even more than the last contract.
The Big-12 did very well with what they had and while we can get into a pissing match over who makes the 3rd most money… the fact that they are even close without Texas and Oklahoma is a testament to the Big-12 and the deal they put together. Meanwhile, while they are negotiating another TV contract in a few years along with the BIG and SEC, all who will have negotiated 2 new deals before ours are up again, the ACC’s gap will only grow larger.
** Edited by JLM-Hokie at 5/30/2023, 10:13:22 AM
(In response to this post by TDVick)
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HOO86
3y
The Pissing Match is over 4th between the PAC12 and Big12. Looks like the Big12 will win that as it stands.
(In response to this post by JLM-Hokie)
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HOO86
3y
He's back to being way off base as he was in 2011. After Texas/Oklahoma leave the Big12, the ACC will be over $10 million more per school plus than the Big 12 per year by doing nothing. Jim Phillips is correct when he keeps saying the ACC is third. It's a solid third starting 2025. Maybe 2024. Not sure exactly when Texas Oklahoma start in SEC.
(In response to this post by TDVick)
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Vippie1
3y
the ACC is a solid third, and over time it will show more and more monetarily. Too many folks get hung up analyzing on-the-field (or court) success, when it is "brands" that matter most. No matter the on the field/court success of the Big 12, present or future (and it appears to be relatively impressive) it will not compensate for the relative lack of "juice" the names on the jerseys bring.
(In response to this post by HOO86)
3y
look a lot better. It is still pretty amazing how the newcomer UCF has climbed the ranks and gained on UM and FSU. That school is huge and will have a tremendous alumni following.
Population isn't growing in the B12 country and people are really re-thinking the decision to go to college. The one place where schools are booming and growing in Florida. It's crazy how big UCF, FAU and the other schools are getting. FSU has rocketed up the academic rankings because it is getting a lot more selective.
** Edited by TDVick at 5/30/2023, 6:10:08 AM
(In response to this post by HOO86)
W
WBGV
3y
Each of the eight legacy Big 12 schools agreed to forego $16 million total ($8 million annually in 2023-24 and 2024-25) and the Texas and OU exit fee of approximately $100 million will go to reimburse those schools. When all is said and done, the exit fee will cover conference expansion cost and not much more.
The new TV contract, playoff money, etc. will put each B12 school over the $50 million dollar mark. There are a lot of moving parts in the ACC (network payout, playoff money, uneven distribution, etc.), but I think that ACC schools will also be over the $50 million dollar mark on average in two years.
Utah, Texas, and Florida all have double digit population growth since 2010 and that half of the new Big 12 conference. Supposedly targeted schools in the states of Colorado and Arizona also have double digit population growth since 2010.
The following article was written before the Texas & Oklahoma buyout was finalized, but the way that money will be distributed is likely going to be the same.
(In response to this post by TDVick)
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HOO86
3y
They will be the clear number 4. But Greg Swaim likes to show off numbers for the Big XII with Texas/Oklahoma still there and project them for the years after 2025. Not going to be the case.
The ACC will be a clear Third, but the gap with the SEC/B1G is still there. Going forward perhaps there will be opportunity, but one easy solution might be having Ohio State and Michigan join the SEC in 2030 or so. Then ESPN can include a big Bump for the SEC.
(In response to this post by TDVick)
3y
schools have lots of alums and eyeballs, but the aren't typically in growing parts of the country. Why couldn't a portfolio of schools with large fan bases build a similar enterprise?
B10 has larger populations centers and alumni bases than the B12, but if you package together the right schools, it seems like you could close the gap. UCF has 68,000 students, Arizona 36,000 and Arizona State 54,000.
Is it that the B10 has been so extraordinary or (more likely) that the other leadership (ACC) has been deficient?
(In response to this post by TDVick)
E
EDGEMAN
3y
I've heard that rumor too, but I've also heard that's B12 disinformation.
We shall see...
(In response to this post by TDVick)
3y
now will have more conference payout money than FSU or UM. That's quite significant. All the different sources has the payouts in the same range.
It also makes me wonder just how strong the SEC's hand is relative to the B10
(In response to this post by EDGEMAN)
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hokieZ71
3y
And they don't include UCF. UCF will be part of a watered down Big XII without its two flagships and 12 teams splitting a smaller pie.
None of the numbers for 2021-22 are totally relevant at this point. Numbers for 2024 and on are way more relevant. And ACC schools will be level or ahead of the Big XII, primarily due to ACC Network revenue, of which Big XII will get nothing out of. When the fanbases of Texas and Oklahoma are watching SEC games all day Saturday, the Big XII is in for a bit of a wakeup call.
(In response to this post by TDVick)
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HOO86
3y
** Edited by HOO86 at 5/30/2023, 5:57:01 AM
(In response to this post by TDVick)
3y
and Miami will get from the ACC? That was the point. They are playing a B12 schedule in 2023.
** Edited by TDVick at 5/30/2023, 6:04:14 AM
(In response to this post by HOO86)
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HOO86
3y
The Big XII is paying UCF, Cincinnati, BYU, and Houston out of the projected settlement money from Texas/Oklahoma, not their current contract. They also have to pay Texas/Oklahoma out of the existing contract before the new one starts. I doubt UCF gets equal share until UCF starts on the new contract in 2025.
(In response to this post by TDVick)
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Truthahn
3y
It might be technically true until 2026 that we are behind the B12. But after 2025, the ACC gets a boost from the ACCN somehow.
From that point on, we are making several million more per team than the B12, like 4 million more in 2029.
I think that is about right. Not much separation, but that puts us clearly at #3 until the next B12 TV contract around 2031 anyway. I think we will still be ahead of them then, too.
** Edited by Truthahn at 5/30/2023, 11:23:26 AM
(In response to this post by MrFantastic!)
T
Truthahn
3y
The main point is the same, though, the ACC > B12 by a few mil every year after 2025.
BTW, the SEC > B10 in 2029 by 10 mil. So, is the SEC the P1?
(In response to this post by Truthahn)
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HOO86
3y
And the Big 12 goes back to $40 in 2026 to grow while the ACC goes to $50 in 2026 and grows. Big12 contract with Texas/Oklahoma ends in 2025. The Big12 is backfilling them with more members than the 10 that were splitting the 12 team pot.
Who knows what the PAC12 will do. I'm seeing them back to $30 or so in 2025. That is unless they do something differently.
(In response to this post by Truthahn)
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Truthahn
3y
I read that article about the 2022 payouts.
That list also makes it clear why John Skipper thinks it is unlikely that the SEC or B10 will pick up anyone from the ACC. Those conferences will be getting $117M and $110M by 2029. Skipper doesn't think even FSU or Clemson could add that much, plus they will have to pay $180M to get out of the ACC by then, each. That exit fee will keep going up each year.
Also, that is just for 2029. No one can really leave until 2036. Before then, the ACC will have had a chance to figure out what they can get in 2037 in a new media deal. We all know we are undervalued. We might get a large enough jump in pay then that closes the distance between us and the SEC/B10 significantly.
(In response to this post by HOO86)
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HOO86
3y
Plus with the Pro Rata we can add members at what we are making. If they are valuable perhaps small bumps. The key is to grow into NEW States with Large Subscriber bases. Texas, California, Ohio, etc. California is far away unless we can do what Skipper is talking about and have some sort of merger.
(In response to this post by Truthahn)
HOO86/anyone else, How big does a state/subscriber base need to be to make
it worthwhile for the ACC to add a team from said state?
Also, could you give me a thumbs up 👍 or thumbs down 👎 on each of these individual programs and states on whether you think the ACC should add them?
1. California/UC-Berekely
2. Oregon/UO
3. Washington/UW
4. Arizona/ASU
5. Texas/SMU
6. Colorado/CU
7. Utah/UU
8. Louisiana/Tulane
9. Ohio/Ohio U
Some of these are more obvious than others. I know. I just wanted to get your take.
Feel free to add any other
(In response to this post by HOO86)
2
2hhoop3
3y
is the parameters around the 2026 lookin and how they "can" or "must" be applied. Covid and the Comcast delay essentially torpedoed the 2021 lookin. The ACC needs to take care of business in 2023, 2024 and 2025 to give the most heft to their case for the 2026 lookin.
The other thing people have to keep in mind is the bias inherent in most of the reporting against the ACC and to a lesser extent the PAC 12. Places line SBJ and SI, reporters like Ourand and Marchand and analytics firms like Navigate all have other agendas aside from a fair, accurate and complete reporting of just the facts. It is interesting that when the new Big 12 deal was reported, nobody aside from the Orlando Sentinel, explicitly stated that no one from the Big 12, FOX or ESPN was on record confirming the specifics of the deal. That was in late October and early November 2022. We are now 7 months later and I have yet to see any of those entities go on record. I think we can all speculate reasons as to why that might be and most have more negative than positive implications for the reconstituted Big 12 and its future revenue prospects.
(In response to this post by HOO86)
E
EDGEMAN
3y
It's well known the B-12 was 10 schools being paid for 12 schools, so most were getting paid more than their perceived value. That goes away when their two "big name" schools head to the SEC.
Have their new contract numbers been released?
(In response to this post by TDVick)
3y
just doesn't look like a good situation going forward. Too many small and schools and too many in 1 state (NC).
(In response to this post by EDGEMAN)
E
EDGEMAN
3y
...too many small schools and too many schools in one state. Both are hurting the ACC.
(In response to this post by TDVick)