** Edited by Millpoint at 3/3/2025, 3:54:27 PM

1. Below $100M of total cost of leaving in 2031 does seem low. Basically, it’s going to be "jail-free" in 2031. 2. I have been saying that at most two schools would leave the ACC before 2030 (and not many agreed with me). It looks like I’m going to be right. 3. But it seems like the ACC may lose up to four schools in 2031. 4. The ACC will need to backfill, but the end result might not be what some (most) of the Big 12 fans were expecting to see. 5. Remember the ACC-ESPN contract runs through 2036. Also, remember the Big 12 schools will be "jail-free" as well in 2031. 6. The P2 will have the first choice—whether it’s a super league, a breakaway, or replacing the CFP with a P2 invitational. They can also add schools from the M2. The ACC has better brand schools, but some Big 12 schools and lesser-brand ACC schools will start jockeying as well. 7. After the P2 makes a decision, then the battle royale between the M2 will start. 8. This will depend on the media contract. If the Big 12 does get a much better contract than the ACC, then the ACC may lose more schools to the B12. 9. Personally, I’ve been saying that the ACC will have an upper hand, as ESPN will have an incentive to move Big 12 schools to the ACC. I expect the ACC schools will make $5M to $10M more than Big 12 schools until 2031. Unless the B12 anyhow gets a significant better deal in 2031, the ACC will raid some of the Big 12 schools. 10. Whichever M2 conference loses the battle royale will backfill with G5 schools. UConn, SDSU, Memphis, Oregon State, and USF come to my mind. Certain Big East schools, such as Villanova and Georgetown, are also a possibility.

1. FSU and Clemson will both announce they are leaving, if not sooner, prior to commencement of the 2029-2030 season. They're not waiting until 2031. If you think they're going to wait until the 2030s to announce this, you're not thinking about it very hard. 2. I don't think it will come as a shocker to anyone that's been paying attention when FSU and Clemson announce they're leaving first. That will start a domino effect of other football brands scrambling to get out. 3. The ACC will begin to lose members as soon as FSU and Clemson announce they're leaving. Again, domino effect. This has happened every single time a conference loses its flagship brands. The knives come out and everyone moves for the exit doors as quickly as they can. 4. Yes, the ACC will have to back fill, but it won't be with Big 12 programs. Once all the major football brands start exfiltrating from the conference, there will be no reason for any Big 12 program to leave a relatively stable football conference to hop onto a sinking ship conference in full on crisis mode. 5. See 4. Also, if 4 or more of the major football brands leave, which is more or less a certainty, again, why are football brands going to leave the Big 12 to join a sinking ACC? This is about football, and only football. 6. Any other ACC football brands that can get out are going to start scrambling to get out as soon as FSU and Clemson leave. They have seen what happened to the old Big East and the PAC-12. Whether it happens slowly like the Big East, or quickly like the PAC-12, staying in a clearly imploding ACC will be akin to suicide for football brand. 7. There's not going to be a "battle royale." The ACC will be operating in crisis mode and losing all its most valuable football properties. It will be like a horse trying to run on 3 broken legs. The Big 12 is going to look like a stable rock to the ACC's hill of wet sand. Schools will be trying to get out of the dumpster fire, not jump in it. 8. I'm still not sure how you think the ACC is going to get a better media rights contract than the Big 12 when all of its football brands will be either gone or clearly running for the exits. Certainly, nobody with any football value is going to sign another GOR. 9. See 8. You've never explained why you think anyone with the means to orchestrate conference realignment moves would extract football value from the Big 12 to place it in the ACC to play home games vs. Wake Forest and Duke. That has never made any sense, and still doesn't now. I guess you think someone is going to swoop in and pay the remaining ACC schools 60 or 70 mil just because? 10. This loser will be the ACC. Also, as an aside, I'm not sure what you're smoking if you think Villanova and Georgetown, who both have FCS football programs and are basketball first schools that play in a power basketball conference that is usually more competitive and gets more teams in the NCAAT than the ACC, would leave the Big East to play in the ACC, or how it would help the ACC in any way to add two FCS football programs. Villanova is usually competitive at the FCS level, but that's FCS, and Georgetown barely even plays football in front of empty bleachers on a LAX field in DC. Frankly, if things get zero hour bad for the ACC, it wouldn't shock me to see some ACC schools, especially the former Big East members like Syracuse, Boston College, or Pitt, go independent in football and join the Big East. They could do a scheduling agreement together for football, sell their own football rights, and juice everything else by playing in the Big East. The alternative would be playing G5 schools and whatever worthless football brands get stuck in the new look G5 ACC.

If they decide to stay and cut some the small pvt schools. ACC will be the p3 and some Big 12 will join.

1. Announcement time and actual departure time are two different things. Read the report: "It is expected that there will be declining financial penalties for schools that exit before 2036, with the steepest decreases coming after 2030... But the total cost to exit the league after the 2029-30 season is expected to drop below $100 million, sources said." 2. The domino effect is not very relevant here. The P2 doesn’t invite schools because of a domino effect. Every M2 school will accept an invitation if given. There aren’t that many schools in the ACC that will increase the payout for the P2. I don’t see more than four (plus ND). 3. See my comments in #2. Again, everyone wants to leave, but no invitation means nowhere to go. 4. It’s all about money. Nobody in the ACC would leave for the B12 if the money is less there, and vice versa. The ESPN-ACC contract runs through 2036. The current B12 contract is much worse than the ACC contract. 5. It’s about football because football makes money. In the end, it’s about money—and all about money. 6. The Big East/AAC kept losing schools and backfilling with schools from CUSA. That’s the exact model. As long as the ACC makes significantly more, B12 schools will come. 7. The unstable B12 didn’t have any problem getting AAC schools when it lost so many teams. 8. Again, the ACC contract runs through 2036. It’s not like the ACC has to find a new media contract in 2030/2031 (that’s what happened to the Pac-12; this is a completely different situation). 9. ESPN has already invested so much money in the ACC Network. From ESPN’s perspective, leveraging its platform to the max is more advantageous than partnering with the B12. You always make fun of BC, but there are many (rich) people in Massachusetts. I suspect there are plenty of people in ACC territory who are rich enough to subscribe to the ESPN/ACC Network, even if they don’t watch much sports. This doesn’t impact ratings but helps the bottom line through subscription revenue. 10. No ACC schools will join the Big East, no matter what happens. Football drives the bus. Being independent won’t work for all ACC schools except for ND. ACC schools joining the Big East is a pipe dream from the past.

gloat about how completely off base you were on literally everything.

As of now, neither F$U or CU has a landing spot in the P2. The SEC doesn't need them, and the B1X has already expanded beyond what they expected (by adding Oregon and Washington). I don't think they're happy with RUTSgers and Maryland, so that may give them pause adding more ACC schools.

they wouldn't have sued the conference to get out. It wouldn't make any sense. They both spent tens of millions of dollars on that stunt. I don't know what their plan is, but it wasn't, "spend tens of millions of dollars filing a lawsuit and ostracize conference administration and half the membership to just do nothing and stay in the conference." Maybe I'm wrong, and the folks that run both those institutions are really monumentally stupid, but I kind of doubt that. They both got what they wanted out of the lawsuit - they will make more money at the expense of the bottom tier of the conference, and they will both have the opportunity to leave right when the next round of media rights contracts are up for negotiation and renewal. In settling, the ACC and its bottom tier membership basically just bought themselves some breathing room to plan for the coming catastrophe. RE: Rutgers and Maryland - when those schools were added, they both made a ton of sense and did exactly what they were intended to do. With the exception of Maryland basketball, neither school was expected to be competitive at all in the conference; that wasn't the point. They were expected to deliver tens of millions in carriage fees for the Big Ten Network. They delivered, because millions of cable subscribers in the DMV and New York Metro had to start paying the BTN carriage fee as part of their sports package, and, as a sweetener, the Ohio States and Michigans got extra automatic football wins without having to schedule them OOC. The carriage fees paradigm is now coming to a close, and, with the exception of a brief stint for Rutgers in the mid-to-late 2000s, neither school has been competitive in football for at least 70 years. But, they did what they were supposed to do at the time.

There you have it, as many have suspected, the reset of Conferences will be when the TV Contracts are renegotiated for 2031 with 3 of the Power 4. However, I think you will start to hear about P2 invites and other Conference invites before that. They want to be able to say who is coming so they can get more higher TV ratings schools in their negotiations with the networks. One very important thing for the ACC, knowing some schools are likely to leave in 2031, the contract with ESPN is extended to 2036. That means IMHO the ACC survives, and probably will replace the teams that leave. An example since FSU and Miami are likely gone, could be USF and maybe even UCF join the ACC to keep two schools in Florida. That’s just a possibility, but there are certainly other intriguing candidates. ** Edited by Stech at 3/3/2025, 1:20:56 PM

conference. Ditto the B12.

ESPN wouldn’t be happy about devaluing its products. Will the departing schools have to make a direct payment to ESPN? Didn’t Texas and OU pay some money to Fox when they left the B12?

have been a part of the negotiations, but I have not seen where they paid anybody but the Conference. If you can find something otherwise, I would like to see it.

“A portion of the more than $100 million in exit fees will go to Fox to compensate for the equivalent of seven lost Texas and Oklahoma football games.” But yes no direct payment to Fox.

I just don't have a soft spot for either FSU or Miami. USF and UCF could be fun.

seems to me, it would have been better for the ACC to go to court. Did FSU just win?

either that it would have been better for the ACC to have gone to court or consider it an FSU win without specific final details? What leads you to believe this was a stipulation by ESPN in order to extend the contract? Is this just your your latest thinly veiled attempt to troll the board? Fyi IF a settlement is reached it means ALL the parties settled and the losers/winners can be evaluated on the specific details when known. ** Edited by 2hhoop3 at 3/3/2025, 4:40:45 PM

that ESPN wanted the court cases settled at all costs. There is too much at stake for them if the GOR part of these contracts are not valid. The same thing happened when OUT left the B12. ESPN actually paid the B12 as part of their settlement, as thy did not want this stuff to go to court. Say what you want, but it appears that FSU got what they were looking for - and out. BTW, can you stop with the troll stuff? It's quite tiring.

but, it is accurate. You don't know yet what they got as there is no agreement yet and no specific details which is why you avoided and/or cannot answer the questions asked. However, I do appreciate you finally acknowledging ESPN paid the Big 12 after denying the substance of that transaction for so long. ** Edited by 2hhoop3 at 3/3/2025, 4:43:28 PM

not having the GOR ruled on in a court of law may have been enough of a motive.

I finally read the article and I don't see what the ACC gains.

"the ACC is going to raid the Big 12 when all the ACC football brands leave" narrative that he favors. He is convinced that the ACC is making bookoo bucks while the Big 12 has an CUSA-level contract, and that valuable Big 12 football brands are going to leave their current situation so they can play games at SMU, Boston College, Syracuse, and Wake Forest. All based apparently on the fact that the ACC makes a couple million more dollars per-school at present than the Big 12. He also thinks the Big 12 doesn't have a conference network because the Big 12 is worthless, when the truth is that the concept of a linear cable conference network is about to become completely obsolete with the transition to an all-streaming infrastructure. Guess what? The Big 12 already has an all-streaming "conference network" called Big 12 Studios with on-demand content, shows and games, that anyone can watch for free, right now. The Big 12 clearly has the ability to produce its own content, both in terms of studio shows and games, and they will be ready to go with a pay-streaming option when the time comes. But, right now, nobody with a brain is going to invest 200 million dollars in starting a linear Big 12 cable network, because they know barely anybody will have linear cable packages in 5 years. It would be flushing money down a drain, because there would be no time to see a return on your investment. But, none of that fits his narrative either. He will tell you that Boston College is a valuable property because rich people live in Boston.

ACC bubble from my standpoint. As mentioned previously, I have lived in Boston, and Charlotte, for a combined 15 years or so. In Boston, you had to explain to them what it was like to go to a Big 10 or SEC game. Charlotte back then wasn't much different. What I am finding, is that there is a disconnect with what it is like to attend those games out here in the hateful 8 territory. It's much more like the SEC than it is the ACC, or even the old Big East. With everything I have read, it's just like attending games at Lane. The East Coast, and the Mid Atlantic, is just a different breed of college football fan. With a few exceptions, like Lane, they are almost all wine and cheesers, and there just isn't a comparison. But, I digress, as I guess that is just what a troll would say.

which isn't even really the "northeast," it's Pennsyltucky, the northeast has next to zero college football fan interest. The last time the northeast had any kind of college football significance was 1900-1910, when Harvard, Yale, and Princeton were the dominant teams. It has become completely dominated by pro sports, because the vast majority of the populations live in giant cities with giant metro areas, and the influence of pro sports in those markets has completely and totally proliferated in the past 70 years. And, that's not even to mention that barely anyone from those immediate areas actually goes to those schools - there's no alumni connection like there is with, say, Ohio State. That's why the combo of Miami, Virginia Tech, and WVU came into the Big East Football Conference in the early 90s and immediately became the focus and dominated it - they came from areas with a college football focus and tradition, not the northeast. Nobody could care any less about Pitt when the Steelers is the entire focus. Same story with Boston College when the Patriots is all anyone thinks about. Same story with Syracuse when you have the Bills, Jets, and Giants. There's just no market for college football, because the NFL sucks up all the oxygen. If you actually go to games at Syracuse, Pitt, and Boston College, and see what it's actually like when the TV camera isn't focused on the front two rows, it's like they're playing in a sterile, empty tomb. There's no interest there. College football is largely viewed in the northeast as an inferior product, as baby stuff. And, guess which conference decided that it was a good idea to add a bunch of northeastern schools to its membership. Zero vision. Bonehead moves like that are a big reason why the ACC is in the jam it's currently in, and why it's going to implode.

before they were trying to build up SEC 🏀, we have the premier College 🏈 Conference in the SEC and the premier College 🏀 Conference in the ACC. I could see them going back to that to some degree. Thus I don’t know if the ACC/ESPN can pull it off, but I could see them trying to get UCONN, Kanas and Arizona at a minimum if the Mag 7 leave. PS Yeah I think FSU kinda won, but it all comes down to the entity writing the checks, so the real winner IMHO is ESPN.

sharing in revenue, all the SEC has to do now is buy basketball ratings. Look how they are positioned this year - it is already happening.

SEC & expanded ACC would give them National Coverage in 🏀, much more ratings and content. Actions speak louder than words, ESPN gets 50% of the profits from the ACCN, they also said the contract is renewed until 2036, knowing that some schools will very likely leave before then with the significant penalties reduction in 2031. The first schools that leave will almost certainly if not certainly be headed to a P2. So they must have a plan to make up for it, or just don’t renew until 2036. The ACC we know will probably be gone in 2031. However, there will probably be a new ACC and I’m guessing that it’ll be built around basketball first but still have good football.

FSU and Clemson get more money now, and will get to leave in 2030 instead of 2036. The ACC ended embarrassing litigation that put a cloud over everything the conference does, and bought itself 5 years to figure things out the best it can to mitigate the fallout from the inevitable loss of its top football brands. The ACC member schools will now also have 5 years to figure out what they're going to do when the penny drops, and start strategizing and maneuvering. Everyone got something they wanted, nobody got everything.

It's absolutely insane to base higher payouts on "viewership." It's little more than a death rattle for a dying conference that buys the Wake Forest and Boston College types a little more time to get their house in order for what will ultimately be their new, much-worsened G5 conference landscape, which I assume they all realize and have accepted at this point. If the article is accurate, and the ticket price to leave drops to $100m or below following the 2029 season, with no conference retention of media rights, the programs that will be getting more money are going to all leave then anyway. Hard feelings and resentfulness will abound in the conference until they do. Without the flagship brands, the ACC will have very little value when it's time to negotiate the next media rights contract in 2036. If you take out FSU and Clemson, never mind Miami, UNC, and whomever else, the Big 12's media rights value will definitely eclipse that of the ACC, which will have to backfill with G5 programs, because, in spite of what some people on here think, I can assure everyone that no programs are going to leave the Big 12 to get on a sinking ship that just lost all its major brands. Also, Cal and Stanford will almost certainly leave as well - they'll both go independent in football and basketball, maybe in everything, before they stay in a G5 conference that also requires considerable nationwide travel. They're definitely not going to keep sending their volleyball and tennis teams to play USF in Tampa. It may be sooner, depending on what the annual step down for the exit penalties look like, but, if not, 2029-2030 will be the last season of the ACC as anything more than a glorified mid-major conference. I really, really hope this wakes everyone in administration at VT up, and they start planning NOW to exit following the 2029-2030 season, whether they have to go to the Big 12, or they get lucky and wind up in the SEC or Big 10, because this makes it crystal clear what's going to happen to the ACC.

to the ACC if the Mag 7 or even less leave. ESPN receives 50% of the ACCN profits, just consider it another investment in their portfolio. Never have all your eggs in one basket, especially as expensive as they are right now.🤣

mid tier ACC schools talking to the B12. If the B12 gets a private capital deal, they will have a bit of change to help with exit fees. I don't see the B12 attracting the "brands", but if there is no P2 invite for those that are about to take a haircut, some of no fault of their own, will start looking around. 40% of TV money guaranteed???? 60% for viewership? WTH is that? Also, would teams have to re sign a new GOR with changes as drastic as that?

FSU and Clemson would never agree to that, given that a major concession by the ACC was to lower the penalty to leave early. I don't think any other ACC program with football ambition would agree to sign a new GOR either. I really think this settlement is little more than the ACC acknowledging that it ultimately can't do anything about all its major football properties exiting for elsewhere, and it had to buy itself (and most of its members) some time to prepare for the conference's impending demotion to G5 status. That's the "deal," so to speak. FSU and Clemson (and pretty much certainly others) stay on for another 4 years with more money, and the ACC gets time to start working the back channels to poach G5 programs when it needs to backfill and try to figure out how to spin the collapse of the conference from "power" status so that it can retain programs and media rights valuation to the greatest extent possible. I imagine we will see a renewed focus on the ACC as a basketball property, like a Big East conference that also sponsors football. Cal and Stanford will almost certainly leave, maybe for the Big 10, maybe as independents, because all the "pros" that now exist for them to be ACC members will cease, most importantly, the affiliation with Notre Dame. Because there will be no more major football brands in the ACC, Notre Dame will end its current contractual relationship with the conference for football, and it will start a new, similar scheduling agreement for football with the Big 10, maybe even the Big 10 and the SEC, and will park the rest of its sports in the Big East, where it can play other Catholic institutions in major metro areas. The American and Sun Belt will also really take financial hits, because the ACC will back fill primarily with the best of their programs. If the new look ACC's new media rights valuation is real bad, we may even see some wild stuff - I could see Boston College, Pitt, and/or Syracuse going back to the Big East, maybe in an extreme case even taking Duke with them, and all being independents in football, with a scheduling agreement among themselves and UConn. They could just sell their home games to the highest bidder; someone would buy the content, because everyone always needs content. If you're Duke, or those other former Big East schools, why would you stay in the ACC to play SMU and other backfill G5 programs like Tulane, JMU, App State, and USF? Duke may suck as a football brand, but they're probably the most lucrative basketball property in the country, and would do anything in their power not to have to affiliate themselves with these "mid-major" properties. The same line of reasoning goes for the other former Big East schools as well. If you can't get a big boy football paycheck, you may as well fall back on what you do (did?) best, and give up chasing the football dragon. These are the types of things the ACC will be maneuvering to avoid over the next 4 years until the hammer falls.

a "G" status. The current media contract runs through 2036. If FSU, Miami, Clemson, and North Carolina leave for the P2 in 2031, the rest of the conference will get a pay raise, at least until 2036. There would be no need for them to back fill, and ND, depending on their next FB contract, could very well stay aligned with the ACC, as they too would get more money with 2-4 schools leaving. The only thing I could see that relegates the ACC to backfilling with G5 schools, is if there is a Colorado (Louisville?) that would rather align with the B12. If something like that happens, then all bets are off.

The Big XII needs heavyweights, and ESPN/Fox need the Big XII to get some heavyweights. I don’t know who goes with them, but those three teams have over 10 National Titles between them. (Pitt has a natty, maybe Pitt?) The Big XII could utilize those heavyweights better than the ACC does. And the SEC/ B10 don’t need them. At some point, ESPN/Fox are going to start making long term moves that strengthen college football instead of strengthening the P2. Because it makes sense.

when the ACC is having to renegotiate its media rights contract without all its major football brands? FSU and Clemson, clearly, are going to leave, and I think it's almost a certainty that UNC and Miami will leave as well, because they're clearly telegraphing the move in the media. If those four are gone, what is the incentive for schools like VT, NCSU, or Louisville to stay in the ACC? Football brands leaving will be like dominoes falling - one leaving will cause another to leave, and so on, and so on. And, the conference will HAVE to back fill, it will have no choice - the ACC will not be able to maintain its current contract with ESPN in that scenario without adding schools. And, if they can't convince current Big 12 programs to leave stability and join a conference in crisis mode, then who do you think they're going to backfill with? And, why do you think ND would want to maintain its current contract with the ACC, when they could just as easily enter a similar (better) one with the Big 10 and/or SEC, with all other sports membership in the Big East? That arrangement would make WAY more sense for them, financially and otherwise; if they could do it right now, they would. They have to sell their own home games package to NBC - do you think they'd get a higher number if that package included games vs. Georgia and Ohio State, or Wake Forest and SMU? You seem to be overlooking what a massive collapse, both in terms of money and member schools leaving, that will be triggered by FSU and Clemson leaving. Everyone that can will be scrambling to get out of the burning building. There will be absolutely no honor among thieves in that scenario. Did you just sleep through what happened to the PAC-12?

many assumptions. Sure, FSU is a brand, but if you were the SEC, would you want them? They already have Texas pressuring them to have 9 conference games. That, and where the hell is Clemson going? Sure, they have 3 national championships to their name, but the do not have the history of blue blood status, nor do they have the history of the entire country tuning into their games. As long as they are a top 10 school, sure - but that applies to any school in the ACC with the exception of SMU. North Carolina????? Football????? Maybe the market, and their basketball program, but really, are they worth the $100M for the Big 10? The ACC might lose a few, but the bar is higher than you think. The P2 will not dilute themselves for more schools, they just don't have too. They already have the lions share of the media and playoff money. I think the ACC needs 16 schools. If they lose 2, they will survive as a power conference. If they lose 3, they have UConn as a decent add. I just don't see the P2 taking more than that.

none of this would have happened. There would have been no lawsuits in the first place. And, they clearly both plan to leave in 2029-2030 - they specifically negotiated vastly reduced exit penalties for that specific window of time in order to settle the lawsuits. And, as I've said a million times on here, and history is on my side - the two big brands leaving will cause a domino effect of others scrambling to leave. For those programs that cannot get a P2 ticket, the Big 12 will be chomping at the bit to add value to its own conference while also killing its primary competition. It will be dog-eat-dog. I'm not sure if you're just being overly polite about the ACC because you're posting on a VT board and don't want to draw ire from the old timers, or if you're just being Pollyanna-ish, but I think you're looking at this entire matter through rose colored ACC glasses.

to why they are so loyal to the ACC though. It's that until 2036, I do not see the money difference that would compel an ACC team to jump, unless the departure of a few top schools made for a recalculation of the playoff money. The key is ND, and their contract. I say, get a couple $100M from FSU and Clemson NOW. Let them go, as they will not get a home at full value until the next contract negotiation of the P2. THAT is what the ACC should do in my opinion. That gives two additional share of the media money, and the playoff money to the existing schools. With the network, it positions the ACC clearly in front of the B12 until 2031. I'd take my chances with that if I was VT, or NCSU, or GT.

The new media rights contracts for basically everyone except the ACC will be open for negotiation then. The time to leave is THEN, not in 2036. Nobody is going to sit around for 4 more years in a G5 conference. You're also ignoring the fact that Disney is not going to pay the ACC for Clemson and FSU when they're not getting Clemson and FSU. The pro rata shares in the ACC will almost certainly be reduced to account.

until 2036 is in play. Don't settle, don't give them uneven revenue - give them a one time offer to get out. $100M - $200M should do it. You could offer that to any school. How many have more than $100M lying around?

Practically every contract across college football is up for renewal at that time (and now reduced exit fees for ACC align as well). I have little hope anymore that the outcomes will not be worse, so just curious to see what happens.