How long until the bubble bursts? When do the masses lose interest?
This is the flaw in the movement to fewer power conferences. It may not happen quickly, though it's possible that it could, but at some point excluding large portions of the population from a true seat at the table will kill the whole thing. College football is great because of the regional differences and passion of fan bases from all over the country. I know I used to love to stay up late on Saturday to watch a west coast game just to see the pageantry of it all. But the playoff being a rotation of the same 6-8 schools has already weakened my interest. Another ten years of huge disparity in resources will narrow the field even further. Surely someone at Fox or ESPN can see that there is a long term issue that needs to be addressed? I understand that in the moment it makes sense to pursue milking the profits you can get from the SEC or Big10 but what do you do when the rest of country stops tuning in? Even if VT ends up in one of the top two leagues it will be bittersweet.
I did have one thought today that gave me some hope. Maybe there is a way that schools could break free from networks all together. Maybe in the not so distant future networks will give some money to the conference but the schools will individually be tasked with generating more of their own broadcast revenue. Not sure exactly how that would look but maybe the crisis can be averted by opening up new streams of revenue.
17 Replies
4y
The conferences feel like they have to nationalize their presence, to keep the viewers up for TV, because the regional market is not strong enough any longer to support what they need.
In the latest crazy round of expansion, look at it this way, the B1G is using the Los Angeles market to replace those within its own market that have lost interest.
The $64 million question is, will it work?
(In response to this post by ColumbusHokie)
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hokieZ71
4y
Then we will all stick around.
Colin Cowherd mapped it out solidly today. Do it like the NCAA tournament. The SEC ends up with 6-7 bids. The B1G ends up 5-6 bids. The ACC and Big XII will get 1-3 bids. All they have to do is guarantee conference champs from the ACC and Big XII a seat at the table and that will satisfy us for a good decade or so. Then we will see where we are at.
(In response to this post by ColumbusHokie)
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vtka93
4y
And how do you make sure there is no "bias" in the selection?
(In response to this post by hokieZ71)
4y
a decade of that - at least $500 million behind every P2 competitor. The dinner party will never work out if half the people at the table are being served filet mignon while the other half are getting dog food.
I guess he's assuming a playoff expansion to 16 in that scenario, which would need to be revisited and voted on again?
(In response to this post by hokieZ71)
4y
(In response to this post by hokieZ71)
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hokieZ71
4y
(In response to this post by MaryWashGrad)
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Stech
4y
USC and Michigan will grow it. UCLA Ohio Sate will grow it.
People have been saying that for 150 years, it's time to learn from history and realize better games will pull more interest, not less.
(In response to this post by ColumbusHokie)
4y
My post is about the bubble that has grown in some way due to “better games” will pop if the gap between the P2 and the rest of us goes on for too much longer. The death of the bowl game excitement is the warning sign that fanbases outside of the playoffs are starting to tune out.
We need a college football Czar asap or the whole market is going to shrink.
(In response to this post by Stech)
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Stech
4y
particular. There is to much driven by to few schools. That's part of the problem with the ACC, it is too Carolina driven which is basketball first. I understand why it is that way, but I thought Jim Phillips would change that. My guess is that Swofford said we will give you the job, but here is my list of Carolina cannot do's. The only other explanation is that he eventually caved in since so many of them are so close. They sure got the 3 rivalry games they asked for and it sure looks like the HQ is going to Charlotte. I am waiting for the 15 million was too much to turn down. Oh come on, that's pennies compared to the money the Conference takes in.
Back to the Commissioner for the Power Conferences, somebody needs to come in that looks out for everyone. The NFL is far from perfect, but the draft gives a lot of teams a chance to win and a lot of teams have won, even with the Patriots run using free agency dynasty, many others have won too.
** Edited by Stech at 7/6/2022, 8:30:14 PM
(In response to this post by ColumbusHokie)
4y
Ohio State or Alabama is playing. I will watch some but my passion for college football will eventually leave.
(In response to this post by Stech)
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Stech
4y
I am not sure when, but I think both Tech and UVA get in. The state is too big and has too many college football fans. That and they are great academic institutions that those two conferences want to be associated with IMHO.
(In response to this post by HokiesBill48)
Not sure I agree with that
For Tech and UVa to get in they have to increase the overall $$ per conference member. On the TSL podcast I think they said the estimated payout per team was going to be 80 to 100 million every year. So Tech would have to bring the value of the TV up by that amount to just keep the payout the same. Not sure I see how VT or UVa does that.
(In response to this post by Stech)
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Stech
4y
time well tell.
PS Lots of college football fans in Virginia with no Pro team and Snyder running the Washington Commanders and moving the team to Maryland.
(In response to this post by LittletonColoradoHokie)
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vtka93
4y
(In response to this post by LittletonColoradoHokie)
4y
the remainder, which is the majority of football fans, will loose interest if only 25 or so teams are playing for whatever. I think most fans are tired of the same schools winning the championships so over time, only those fan bases will be engaged and that is a small demo.
(In response to this post by Stech)
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Stech
4y
but the chance is slim to none and slim left town as they say.
ESPN wants one conference in the top tier and that is the SEC. I can't blame them, the SEC as they say just cares more when it comes to football. I think Virginia Tech would do great in the SEC or the B!G, but we need to get there sooner rather than later unfortunately if they are making a 100 million and we are making between 30 and 40 million. They will just come in and buy our successful coaching staffs and we will become VCU basketball. We find the coaches, and when they are successful the Power schools come and take them or should I say buy them. That's tough to take over time.
That said, I don't think the Virginia schools will be left behind, I worry more about how long it will take before we are in the Power 2!
(In response to this post by HokiesBill48)
